Monday, July 24, 2023
Are Silver’s Liquidity Dreams a Mirage? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2023
By: Submissions
The white metal is priced for an economic outcome that’s unlikely to materialize.
AI Optimism
With liquidity-fueled assets outperforming in 2023, they’ve decided that QT and higher interest rates are not going to spoil their party. Moreover, with silver and gold also liquidity beneficiaries, they have adopted similar attitudes. However, while the gambit can persist in the short term, a major climax should unfold over the medium term.
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Monday, July 24, 2023
Gold Stocks Technical Breakout / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2023
By: Zeal_LLC
Gold-stock technicals are dramatically improving, turning increasingly bullish. After slumping to major support zones in the summer doldrums, the gold miners’ stocks have surged sharply in the past couple weeks. That strong advance has achieved a decisive breakout above the main gold-stock benchmark’s key 50-day moving average. Similar breakouts in recent years have heralded imminent big sector rallies.
Gold-stock price action has been really interesting lately, so I’ve written several recent essays analyzing it. Between late September to mid-April, the leading GDX gold-stock ETF powered 63.9% higher in 6.5 months. That amplified gold’s underlying parallel 25.7% upleg by 2.5x, right in the middle of the major gold stocks’ usual leverage range of 2x to 3x. Then gold rolled over into a healthy pullback in early May.
GDX closed just shy of a new upleg high on May 4th, the day gold hit its own latest of $2,050. But with gold getting seriously overbought and greed growing excessive, the yellow metal reversed to work off both conditions. So over the next 1.8 months into late June, gold pulled back 6.9% to $1,908. That perfectly-normal mid-upleg selloff was right in line with February’s 7.2% pullback, and restored sentiment balance.
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Monday, July 24, 2023
Are your kids suffering from The META “mind virus?” / Politics / Social Media
By: Stephen_McBride
Have you signed up for Threads yet?
Facebook’s (META) new social media app, called the “Twitter killer,” is taking off like a rocket.
In just five days, it hit 100 million users. That’s faster than ChatGPT!
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Saturday, July 22, 2023
Stock Market S&P500 2023 Road Map Current State / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2023
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Continues to pull stocks relentlessly higher towards a target of 4,500 by late July. so any correction is likely to be minor i.e. something like a couple of hundred S&P points, 4100 at the lowest, where right now instead of FOMO-ing I am eyeing the run to sub 4000 during that deep pull back into October, so far the market has done nothing to negate this long standing expectation.
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Friday, July 21, 2023
CPI LIE, Fed Funds and Earnings and Recessions / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2023
By: Nadeem_Walayat
CP LIE Tuesday
The smoke and mirrors annual inflation indices which mask the true magnitude of inflation pain that will run for the whole of this decade will Tuesday deliver a mix bag, a sharply lower headline rate falling towards 4%, whilst a stubbornly high core rate that will remain above 5% which is what the Fed is focused upon and thus likely to send yields higher. So the CPI should be a net bearish for stocks. Remember the Fed target is 2% not 5!
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Friday, July 21, 2023
AI Tech Stocks Red Lights and Sell Triggers / Stock-Markets / AI
By: Nadeem_Walayat
FOMO IS EXTREME, and up until last week's AAII survey the only thing that was lacking was a bullish investor sentiment gauge to match the stock prices going nuts to the upside! Well we got that with a shockingly extreme jump in investor sentient reading that went from 29% bull to 44.5% bull in 1 week!. Normally I don't pay much attention to this, but that is a BIG JUMP! We have not seen readings as high as this since late 2001, the pumps are definitely being primed for a sell off.
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Sunday, July 09, 2023
The AAII Stock Market Investor Sentiment Switch Got Flipped! / Stock-Markets / Stock Market Sentiment
By: Nadeem_Walayat
FOMO IS EXTREME, and up until last week's AAII survey the only thing that was lacking was a bullish investor sentiment gauge to match the stock prices going nuts to the upside! Well we got that with a shockingly extreme jump in investor sentient reading that went from 29% bull to 44.5% bull in 1 week!. Normally I don't pay much attention to this, but that is a BIG JUMP! We have not seen readings as high as this since late 2001, the pumps are definitely being primed for a sell off.
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Sunday, July 09, 2023
Uk Inflation in 2023: The Current Situation / Economics / Inflation
By: Umer_Mahmood
The April index falls less than expected to 8.7%. And the core figure has been at its best since 1992. After the IMF's good estimates on the economy, markets see a hawkish BoE
Difficult day for the stock markets of the Continent, which has been affected by a long series of bad news. Starting with the cold shower that came from British inflation, to which are added the fears of the failed agreement on the US debt ceiling and those about the damage that the Chinese economy could suffer from the new wave of Covid together with the ban on Micron chips. But, if on the impasse in Washington there is the belief that an agreement will arrive before 'date X', the race in prices in the United Kingdom gives us a glimpse of a dark future on the interest rate front.
Tuesday, July 04, 2023
Current State of Stock Market FOMO / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2023
By: Nadeem_Walayat
We have CP LIE Tuesday and then the Fed rate meeting Wednesday in advance of which retail investors and many fund managers woke up June 1st to realise that there is a bull market underway and literally PANIC bought like a herd galloping towards the edge of the AI cliff.
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Tuesday, July 04, 2023
US Real Estate Bubble From A Technical Analysis Point Of View / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Understanding The Market Cycles
My focus usually lies with stock indexes, sectors, and commodities, but today, we venture into the real estate market. Real estate is a market that many people don’t fully comprehend. Many are excited by the robust housing market, believing it’s never been a better time to buy. But the reality is, I believe we’re in a phase that isn’t ideal for such investments.
Taking a leaf from Stan Weinstein’s book, he proposed that the market has four stages: Stage 1, where active investment capital isn’t advisable due to the choppy, flatlining market; Stage 2, the bull market phase; Stage 3, a volatile phase where struggle reigns; and Stage 4, a phase marked by a massive decline. Stages 2 & 4 are usually an easy time for investors to make money. But in Stages 1 & 3, it becomes harder to grow your capital and much easier to lose a hefty portion. This is the crucial time to preserve and protect your wealth for reinvestment when conditions improve.
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Tuesday, July 04, 2023
Stock Market As Bullish As It Gets / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2023
By: Monica_Kingsley
S&P 500 didn‘t look back following the tame core PCE report, clearly betting on no recession and Fed to declare victory against inflation. For all the positive broadening of stock market breadth in cyclicals and tech alike, other asset classes incl. bonds didn‘t get as carried away, meaning that stocks are likely to do a shallow consolidation of steep Friday‘s gains just next (today and tomorrow premarket).
As I have written on Friday – on top of dip buying being the name of the game following Thursday‘s reaction:
(…) As I don‘t expect a hot inflation figure … this should work to ultimately let stocks overcome any initial gyration with ES move to the upside, helping real assets and weakening USD,
Tuesday, July 04, 2023
Russia Set to Blow Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant or Use Tactical Nukes - Act Now to Protect / Politics / Ukraine War
By: Eliza_Walayat
RADIATION FALLOUT WARNING! Tactical Nukes or even worse the blowing up of the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power plant, Europe's biggest would result in nuclear fallout spreading across Western Europe! The time to act is NOW Not AFTER it happens as you would have zero chance of being able to get your hands on what's needed to protect from nuclear fallout, that's Potassium Iodide tablets and a Radiation Detector as covered in this video.
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Thursday, June 29, 2023
Stock Market Trend Forecast 2023 / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2023
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Will resolution of the Debt ceiling nothing burger send indices such as the S&P to the moon? Despite the fact that I have stated countless times that they are a red herring as the red hot chili pepper AI stocks rally illustrates S&P has been flat whilst AI tech stocks have gone to the moon. Nevertheless most remain obsessed by what the S&P will do, just as long as I can continue to ignore the Nasdaq! Getting ones knickers in a twist over the Nasdaq is what would sow maximum confusion when one just needs to stick with the script of gaining and maintaining exposure to the AI tech stocks as long as they remain largely grounded in reality and not go nuts as Nvidia has just done, more on Nvidia later.
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Thursday, June 29, 2023
Stocks and Junk Bonds: "This Divergence Appears Meaningful" / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2023
By: EWI
The trends of the junk bond and stock markets tend to be correlated.
The reason why is that junk bonds and stocks are closely affiliated in the pecking order of creditors in case of default. The rank of junk bonds is only slightly higher than equities because debt involves a contract.
Given these two markets are usually correlated, it's worth paying attention when a divergence takes place. Indeed, a divergence is in the works now. In other words, while stocks have been holding up, the price of junk bonds have been trending lower for much of the year.
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Thursday, June 29, 2023
Can We Live in a World without Silver? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2023
By: MoneyMetals
The World Silver Survey is an annual report published by The Silver Institute since 1990. It provides market participants with supply and demand statistics for critical sectors of the silver market, along with price and trade data.
The 2022 World Silver Survey reported a global silver deficit of 154 million ounces, the most significant since 2015. The 2023 World Silver Survey reported a global silver deficit of 129 million ounces, the second-largest since 2015.
Thursday, June 29, 2023
Mark Denning’s 6 Effective Strategies To Ensure Success / Personal_Finance / Learning to Invest
By: Sumeet_Manhas
Entrepreneurs must recognize that building a successful business requires dedication, resilience, and a willingness to adapt. It's a transformative journey, one replete with both triumphs and trials. While these lessons are often best learned through experience, it’s worth heeding experts like Mark Denning, a leader in global finance who has helped manage more than $300 billion of investors’ money.
By staying focused and committed to their vision, entrepreneurs can navigate the winding path, overcoming obstacles and inching closer to their goals. While preventing business failure is never guaranteed, implementing these strategies provides a robust foundation for success. By constantly evolving, learning from mistakes, and staying passionately dedicated to their venture, entrepreneurs can breathe life into their dreams, create an enduring impact, and leave an indelible mark on the dynamic tapestry of the business world.
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Thursday, June 29, 2023
Peculiarities of cargo security you should know / Companies / SME
By: Sumeet_Manhas
Today, previewing the factors that interfere with running your business becomes far more tricky. Some are almost classical, while others appeared from modern tendencies and tech development. It also touches on transportation issues, so securing your goods on their way to the destination is always better. The most reliable approach is building a security system with an armed guard onboard. But what to pay attention to, and how to decide which option is the most effective? Find it out below in our article.
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Thursday, June 22, 2023
Why Most investors Underperform the Stocks Indices / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2023
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Dear ReaderThe stock market ended the week at S&P 4410 off a new bull market high of 4448 against my expectations for a fuzzy week to deliver a correction this week enroute to the 4500+ final destination by late July to complete the first leg of this bull market and to herald a significant correction into October as illustrated by my original road maps -
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Thursday, June 22, 2023
Stock Market Liquidity Perfect Storm / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2023
By: Monica_Kingsley
S&P 500 decline led by tech met a first hesitant, then more resolute, intraday rebound led by tech retracing prior decline that XLI, XLB and XLE were unable to counter. Thanks to weighting as the share of Top 7 stocks had grown considerably with this bear market rally, these rotations have been insufficient in lifting up the index.
And today isn‘t shaping up to be much better – after breaking my key 4,403, the bears have 4,385 followed by 4,360 in sight. Notably, this is happening when Treasury is sucking liquidity from the market place (that money to buy fresh debt issuance has to come from somewhere, and we can be debating the transmission mechanism strength and accounting) and the Fed is still shrinking its balance sheet. As yet another tightening sign, BoE just raised...
Today‘s unemployment claims are likely to reiterate the hawkish Fed message ultimately, as in that the central bank still has room to tighten – and more of the realization that it would do that, which neither 3m nor 6m yield reflect totally.
Thursday, June 22, 2023
How to Profit From the Smart Money Footprints / InvestorEducation / Learning to Invest
By: Submissions
By Justin Spittler Imagine you’re sitting at a bar in Manhattan.
As the bartender’s making your drink, you overhear a conversation from the table behind you.
Two well-dressed men are talking. One looks familiar. He’s a hedge fund manager you’ve seen on TV.
You don’t recognize the other guy. But, from the sound of it, they work together.