Tuesday, June 01, 2021

Stock Market Consolidation Ahead / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021

By: Andre_Gratian

Current Position of the Market
SPX Long-term trend:  There is some evidence that we are still in the bull market which started in 2009 and which could continue into the first half of 2021 before major cycles take over, and it ends.  A move up to ~4500 is possible before the current bull market makes a final top and SPX corrects into its next major cycle low due in 2023.
SPX Intermediate trend:  Phase three (wave 5 from 3723) is now likely underway.
Analysis of the short-term trend is done daily with the help of hourly charts. They are important adjuncts to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which determine longer market trends.

Monday, May 31, 2021

Stock Market Summer Correction Review, Crypto CRASH, Bitcoin Bear Market Initial Targets / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2021

By: Nadeem_Walayat

This article is an excerpt from my recent extensive analysis that concludes in my latest biotech stock picks with the potential to X10 over the coming years Five More Small Cap Bio and Tech Stocks to Invest for 2021 and Beyond! that has first been made available to Patrons who support my work.

Topics Include:

• Invest and Forget
• Stock Market Early Summer Correction Review
• AI Stocks Strength vs Weakness
• RAMPANT MONEY PRINTING INFLATION BIG PICTURE!
• HIGH RISK STOCK BUYING LEVELS
• RISK RATINGS
• WESTERN DIGITAL - WDC $71 - CHIA! - Risk 1
• Life Sciences Biotech Smaller Cap High Risk Stocks Investing Binge
• Biotech stock 1 - Cheap Low Risk Pharma - Risk 1
• Biotech stock 2 - HIGH RISK GENE EDITING - Risk 9
• Biotech stock 3 - Low Risk 2
• Biotech stock 4 - X10 for Max Risk 10
• High Risk Stocks Portfolio Buying Levels
• Covid India Black Mold Epidemic
• Bitcoin and Raven Coin Buying Levels

So for immediate first access to ALL of my analysis and trend forecasts then do consider becoming a Patron by supporting my work for just $3 per month. https://www.patreon.com/Nadeem_Walayat.

Monday, May 31, 2021

Is CHIA a Crypto Scam for $100 Billion Stock IPO? STOP Farming / Plotting CHIA NOW! / Currencies / Crypto Mining

By: Nadeem_Walayat

CHIA the so called GREEN crypto that is fast gobbling up all available hard disk storage space with many hundreds of thousands busily farming away 100gb plots in attempts to win the elusive CHIA coins that has in the past couple of weeks commanded prices as high as $1600 per coin so very enticing to sucker in many crypto enthusiasts into it's event horizon including me! Though I soon realised after a weeks farming / plotting that the chances of winning were virtually ZERO, so I stopped plotting Chia on the 14th of May which is where my plot count has remained static at 142 or 14tb of storage used as the maths does not stack up! Furthermore 2 weeks on my decision to stop farming proved correct as the ponzi game that CHIA is has become apparent, one of a mass of unfarmed Chia coins that will go into an IPO, CHIA INC, so as to get the fools on Wall Street to plow upwards of $100 billion into in valuation terms thus allowing the CHIA insiders to cash out with billions all without selling a single CHIA coin!

Meanwhile the suckers, that's you are expected to keep expanding that network space so that the CHIA IPO can carry the greatest value. Anyone who feeds the network space with their hard drives is a fool who has fallen prey to the CHIA Crypto scam that I am sure in years to will come to be investigated by the likes of 60 minutes and Panorama in the UK.

Monday, May 31, 2021

Is Gold Price Setting Up For A Rally Above $2000 Again? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021

By: Chris_Vermeulen

In Part I of this research article, I tried to highlight the major market cycle phases that often drive volatility, uncertainty, and bigger trends in the US/Global markets as well as Precious Metals.  Additionally, my team and I highlighted the technical confluence pattern that has setup as Gold prices have rallied above downward sloping price channels (price Flags) recently.  This confluence of technical patterns, while we are transitioning into a post-COVID-19 global economy, suggests that excess credit/debt issues throughout the global financial markets are seeking safety in preparation for some type of market reversion event.

The recent move above $1900 in gold shows that precious metals are likely entering a new bullish price phase.  We highlighted this in a May 3rd research article suggesting that a new advancing cycle phase may push Gold to levels above $2100.  If our research is correct, Gold may continue to rally higher – reaching a peak sometime near mid-October 2021.

Monday, May 31, 2021

Fed Offers No Holiday from Inflation / Economics / Inflation

By: MoneyMetals

Heading into Memorial Day weekend, American motorists will see the highest prices at the pump since 2014, according to AAA. Gas prices now average $3.04 a gallon nationally – reflecting a jump of more than $1.00 compared to the same time last year.

A rising gasoline price is just one of many emerging symptoms of a larger inflation problem:

• A lack of housing inventory, low interest rates, and surging costs for building materials are pushing home prices through the roof.

• Billionaire Warren Buffett recently complained that he is seeing significant inflation pressures throughout the supply chains of businesses he owns.

• Beef is becoming increasingly unaffordable for many grocery shoppers, and rising food costs are forcing already beleaguered restaurants to hike menu prices.

Monday, May 31, 2021

You Should Never Trade Options If You Don’t Know This… / InvestorEducation / Options & Warrants

By: Chris_Vermeulen

Have you ever heard someone say “90% of people that trade options lose money.”? I certainly have. Looking at an options chain can be a dizzying exercise for the uninformed. Delta, Gamma, Theta, Rho, Vega – and let’s not forget – implied volatility? Single, spread, butterfly, condor. What does it all mean? 

So what is an option from a high level view? 

At the end of the day, an options contract is just a derivative like any other stock, bond, ETF, or other tradable security based on an underlying asset. Most people will look at these other forms of derivatives and have an understanding of why the price fluctuates. For example, if a company posts a strong earnings report and the price of the stock goes up, it is easy to understand what is going on. In the case of options contracts, however, things do get a bit more complicated. Let’s break things down a little bit to start to get an idea of why many investors are afraid to trade options. 

Monday, May 31, 2021

How to Unbrick Corsair Radiators After Failed iCUE Firmware Update - H150i Pro, H100i, H115i Fix / Personal_Finance / Computing

By: HGR

Press the firmware update button in Corsair's iCUE buggy bloat ware software and you can likely say bye bye to your CPU radiator cooler as the fans ramp up to 100% and that's where they will remain forever on top of which your CPU RGB lights go off! Well it happened to me and it has probably happened to you which is why you are here watching this video, not to worry here is the fix for how to get your Corsair radiator working again! After watching and fixing your rad do leave a like and comment below.

Monday, May 31, 2021

Playing Dodge Ball With Budgies / Personal_Finance / Animals & Pets

By: N_Walayat

More fun time with my budgies, this time I am playing a form of dodge ball, where the budgie is the ball and I'm trying to dodge it from sitting on me in this advanced parakeets training video!

Saturday, May 29, 2021

Bitcoin and Ravencoin Cryptos CRASH Bear Market Price Targets / Currencies / Bitcoin

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Whilst my in-depth analysis is pending completion, however I have been flagging for several months that the crypto's are in a bubble that will burst / crash / plunge enter into a bear market for which we received a taste of what to expect a few days ago. So my message and strategy has been NOT to hold any meaningful amount of crypto i.e. the only crypto I have is what I have mined with a couple of existing desktop PC's and even then most of the funds generated (80%) have been SPENT because I know that the price of most of not all crypto's is going to head a lot lower.

So in response to patron requests and in advance of my more in-depth analysis on the crypto space that is about 50% complete, then here are the approx range of buying levels that I have had penciled in for Bitcoin for sometime of where I would be tempted to look at actually buying Bitcoin with fiat, though attempts to fund my Coinbase account with fiat has so far failed but I will leave that for my next analysis.

Saturday, May 29, 2021

Silver SIL Global X Silver Miners ETF Fundamentals / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2021

By: Zeal_LLC

The silver miners’ stocks have mostly been consolidating high since last summer.  While they’ve enjoyed some sharp rallies, those have been within that sideways-grind trend.  That lack of overall upside progress has left this tiny contrarian sector out of favor, with apathy reigning.  But as their recently-reported Q1’21 operating and financial results revealed, silver stocks’ fundamentals and upside potential remain good.

There aren’t many major silver miners in the world, and only a handful are primary silver producers that derive over half their revenues from silver.  With such a small population, there are only a few silver-stock ETFs.  The leading one is still the SIL Global X Silver Miners ETF, which is also this tiny sector’s best benchmark.  But nearing the end of Q1’21’s earnings season in mid-May, it only held $1.3b in net assets.

Following a mighty upleg that peaked in early August at SIL $51.53, the silver stocks have largely drifted laterally since.  But their high trading range has been wide, encompassing both corrections and attempts at new uplegs.  Plenty of speculators and investors are still interested in this obscure sector, as evidenced by an amazing episode in late January.  That catapulted SIL a blistering 23.9% higher in just three trading days!

That was when Reddit’s famous wallstreetbets forum appeared to be starting to discuss engineering a silver short squeeze with massive retail buying.  At the time I wrote a whole essay analyzing that.  For our purposes today, that fascinating event proved that the right catalyst can still ignite big inflows into silver and its miners’ stocks.  Unfortunately SIL resumed correcting after that, slumping on balance into late March.

Saturday, May 29, 2021

Bitcoin: Here's the "$64,000 Question" / Currencies / Bitcoin

By: EWI

Will the cryptocurrency ever trade at its all-time again?

In the 1950s television game show, "The $64,000 Question," contestants answered general knowledge questions and the money they could earn doubled as questions became more difficult.

The show's title spawned the well-known phrase -- "that's the $64,000 question" -- which, as you probably know, means the crucial question which gets to the heart of a matter.

Well, "the $64,000 question" for bitcoin is: Will the cryptocurrency ever trade at its all-time of $64,899 again (which was reached on April 14 of this year)?

This is a top-of-mind question for many bitcoin investors who've seen the cryptocurrency bounce back from every "correction" since the start of its meteoric rise.

Friday, May 28, 2021

Stock Market Early Summer Correction Review / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Five more small cap high risk stocks with the potential to X10 to invest in for 2021 and beyond, which follows on from my analysis of 9th of April How to Invest in HIGH RISK Tech Stocks for 2021 and Beyond featuring 5 stocks as I am seeking to replenish my portfolio after many former small cap high risk stocks have either been taken over or migrated into becoming 'safe' stocks such as Nvidia, AMD and TSMC, where the best of the new stocks in terms of current valuations was Corsair.

Friday, May 28, 2021

GOOGLE (Alphabet) Stock Price Trend Analysis - Investing in AI Tech Stocks 2021 / Companies / Google

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Google has had a spectacular bull run to stand up 34% year to date! In terms of valuations Google's stock price is running a little ahead of itself on an EC of 49 against 44 in February. I consider a sweet buying spot for Google when EC is below 40 which would imply a fair price for Google around 2000. So Google is over priced at $2400, in terms of current earnings. In terms of a Buy %, Google is neutral on 50%.

Friday, May 28, 2021

Eerily Serene Risk off Financial Markets / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2021

By: Monica_Kingsley

S&P 500 had a mixed day, and the credit market underlines the shift to risk-off. Halfway shift, to be precise – the high yield corporate bonds recovered the intraday downside but value sold off all the way to the closing bell. Well, rising yields used to add to tech‘s problems since mid Feb, and retreating yields don‘t breathe enough life into the sector now. It‘s clearly visible that the high beta segments are facing the yields‘ headwinds while $NYFANG is in the black, but more than a little lagging.

The Treasury market reprieve I announced on May 18 to last more than a good few weeks, is here. While it works to lift tech and hamper value, the days of value doing fine are far from over as the VTV:QQQ ratio illustrates:

(…)  We‘re still in the value outperforming growth environment (reflation and reopening themes), it‘s just right now (last few days) that tech is pulling stronger ahead than value. ... Value‘s reaction to the yields trajectory ahead would be telling, and I have no doubts there is quite some more juice left in the long value trade (and that the Russell 2000 isn‘t rolling over to the downside here).

Emerging markets are welcoming the dollar woes and yields reprieve, and the Russell 2000 isn‘t too much of a drag either. VIX refused further downside yesterday, and is hedging off bets as much as the option players do – no change in prior trends here, just a move away from the complacent end of the spectrum. The stock bull run is still about dips being bought.

Friday, May 28, 2021

Covid India Black Mold Epidemic / Politics / Coronavirus 2021

By: N_Walayat

The Indian strain is fast becoming dominant in the UK which has the government implementing plans for a third booster dose later this year. Meanwhile India is seeing a new emerging nightmare consequence of covid-19 - black mold disease, an opportunist fungal disease which is related to high blood sugar levels i.e. diabetes which is at epidemic levels in India that now the black mold disease is capitalising upon due to immune system impaired covid-19 infections. Black Mold KILLs tissue and if untreated has a fatality rate of 94%! Far in excess of covid-19! Though it can be treated in the early stages with anti-fungal's but if left unchecked would require expensive specialist treatment i.e. surgical intervention to remove the dead tissue.

Friday, May 28, 2021

Stock Market Cycles Tipping From Euphoria To Complacency – Gold Setting Up For Rally Above $2000 Again? / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2021

By: Chris_Vermeulen

Gold has set up a very strong confluence pattern across multiple foreign currencies recently.  This upside confluence pattern suggests that Gold has now moved into a much stronger bullish price phase compared to various currency pairs.  This upside move in precious metals aligns very well with my broad market cycle phase research. I urge traders/investors to start paying attention as we transition into this new longer-term cycle phase.

Friday, May 28, 2021

Inflation Cools (For Now) Stagflation Awaits / Stock-Markets / Stagflation

By: Gary_Tanashian

To maintain the inflation, a cooling of inflation was needed

That is one of those Alice in Wonderland-like statements, like the one I’ve got tattooed on my left forearm: “Contrary-wise, what is it wouldn’t be and what it wouldn’t be it would, you see?”

To maintain inflationary policy, as per various talking Fed (egg) heads, the hysterical run up in inflationary expectations and fears had to be tamped down. And so, Google users have indeed eased their neuroses right along with a recent tamping of inflationary hysteria.

Friday, May 28, 2021

CPU Crypto Mining Profitability! 5950x Ethereum with Nicehash, is it worth it to mine for Bitcoins? / Currencies / Crypto Mining

By: HGR

Crypto mania is reaching new heights with the likes of Bitcoin trading to over $60,000 before the recent slump, which means virtually anyone with a decent ebough GPU in their PC can make money from their very own desktop computers. However what about your CPU, can that too make money to maximise income crypto craze? Can cpus generate enough hash rates to make them profitable as virtually all modern GPUs are?

Thursday, May 27, 2021

GOOGLE (Alphabet) Stock Price Trend Analysis / Companies / Google

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Google has had a spectacular bull run to stand up 34% year to date! In terms of valuations Google's stock price is running a little ahead of itself on an EC of 49 against 44 in February. I consider a sweet buying spot for Google when EC is below 40 which would imply a fair price for Google around 2000. So Google is over priced at $2400, in terms of current earnings. In terms of a Buy %, Google is neutral on 50%.

Thursday, May 27, 2021

The Shifting US Economy: AI and Automation Lead the Way / Economics / AI

By: Submissions

The Biden administration is 125 days old, and things certainly feel different. What strategies are you employing to take advantage of the shift?

Things often change temporarily before reverting to a mean. Just like market instruments, changing political ideals can, do, and will change, before ultimately reverting back to a mean, or an average state.

Labor force configurations have changed drastically, partially due to the pandemic. What was once everyone’s dream “to work from home”, went from a wish to a potentially harsh reality and has stayed there for many people.