Bitcoin Black Swan - GOOGLE!
Currencies / Bitcoin Jul 24, 2021 - 05:35 PM GMTBy: Nadeem_Walayat
The stock to flow model to is too easy and that Bitcoin halving can do what it does to pump the price ever higher, but what happens if next time that does NOT HAPPEN where instead bitcoin pricing rising it FALLS! If the biggest bullish case for Bitcoin turns out to be FALSE then that crypto is heading towards $1 rather than the stock to flow models $1 million plus coins.
So yes, it worked last time, and could work next time. However, on it's own it has to be coin flip, and eventually those coins are going to flip TAILS - GAME OVER!
Which means don' get sucked into such hype and make sure not to over commit to the crypto casino i.e. Even at maximum exposure I am not going to spend MORE than 1% of my total fiat on crypto's. One has to be prepared for assets that have no intrinsic value to reflect that lack of intrinsic value so keep exposure small.
I am skeptical of the S2F model, reeks of Elliot wave theory and how its all hunkey dory in hindsight but actually going forward it's basically a coin toss which is how I expect the model to play out, nothing is certain so yes there WILL be a halving where the stock to flow model FAILS, which is not something you are going to hear anywhere else because the vested interests have bought into their own hype. Still I cannot ignore that a stock to flow pattern exists, but am fully aware that next time it could FAIL!
So what could kill the stock to flow model and bitcoin and most of the others crypto's along with it?
GOOGLE!
Well okay maybe not Google itself but what it and the other tech giants and several nations are working on could, namely Quantum Computers!
The problem is this, the most important aspect of the block chain is SECURITY of transactions and records of which public key holds what with the private keys kept safe and secure to authorise transactions. All's well as long as the private keys cannot be generated from the public keys which using regular computers, even super computers is practically impossible given that each new blocks hash is generated with reference to the preceding block hence the block chain.
In step Quantum Computers and their super position ability to solve exponential equations.
What does this mean for bitcoin and most crypto currencies?
That they effectively have a shelf life, of what? 10 years? 12 years? Before Quantum Computers make them obsolete. Though there will be realisation long before that day arrives that Bitcoin's goose is cooked that will result in a max exodus from Bitcoin with the price rather than being worth $325 billion per coin will be more like 3.25cents per coin, making their Bitcoin tulips pretty much worthless.
And with the mad rush to exit Bitcoin so will all other crypto's collapse towards zero in the greatest crypto crash blood bath in history, especially if that realisation comes in the run up to a mania peak! If it's during a bear market that is well underway than maybe some sanity will come to the rescue of the block chains as workarounds to secure block chains against quantum computers will be developed., but during a bubble mania Quantum Computers would be the needle that pricks the crypto blockchain bubble. Which will see what happened to the price of Tulips replicated to what happens to the Price of Crypto's falling from $1 million to under $10 within days. That's the state of the crypto world today, a case of stock to flow plain sailing to Bitcoin $1 MILLION+
All whilst the Quantum clock quietly tick tocks all the way towards EXPLODING the blockchain, your Crypto Black Swan event.
This article is an excerpt from my extensive analysis of the crypto markets including a detailed Bitcoin price trend forecast has first been made available to Patrons:
Bitcoin Bear Market Trend Forecast 2021 and Model Crypto Portfolio Buying Levels
- Investing in the Tulip Crypto Mania
- Bitcoin Price Trend Forecast Review
- Lessons Learned
- Cathy Crypto Wood's View on Bitcoin
- BITCOIN HALVINGS TREND TRAJECTORY
- Stock to Flow Infinity and Beyond!
- Bitcoin, Crypto's and the Inflation Mega-trend
- Black Swan 1 - Will Crypto's Get Banned?
- Black Swan 2 - GOOGLE
- Black Swan 3 - USDT Tether Un-Stable Coin Ponzi Schemes!
- BLACK SWAN 4 - Bitcoin 51% Network Attack by China?
- Black Swan 5 - Bitcoin is Already Obsolete
- US Trending Towards Hyperinflation
- BITCOIN TREND ANALYSIS
- Bitcoin Bear markets analysis - How low could she blow?
- Bitcoin Trend Forecast
- Bitcoin Long-term probable Next bull market price target
- Alternative Scenarios
- My Crypto Bear Market Investing Strategy
- Crypto 1 - Ethereum (ETH) $2600
- Crypto 2 - Bitcoin $40,375
- Crypto 3 - Ravencoin $0.078
- Crypto 4 - Cardano $1.59
- Crypto 5 - Pokadot $25
- Crypto 6 - ChainLink $26
- Crypto's 7 to 10
- Creating The Perfect Crypto
- How to Invest in Crypto Without Getting SCAMMED
- CHIA SCAM COIN
- Binance vs Coinbase
- Have ARK Invest Funds Bottomed?
Which was first been made available to Patrons who support my work. So for immediate first access to ALL of my analysis and trend forecasts then do consider becoming a Patron by supporting my work for just $3 per month. https://www.patreon.com/Nadeem_Walayat.
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Whilst my more recent analysis is focused on the risks of Financial Crisis 2.0 - Investing in a Bubble Mania Stock Market Trending Towards Financial Crisis 2.0 CRASH!
And then AI forecasts tech stock prices 3 years forward - AI Predicts AI Tech Stock Price Valuations into 2024, Time to Buy Chinese Tech Stocks?
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Nadeem Walayat has over 30 years experience of trading derivatives, portfolio management and analysing the financial markets, including one of few who both anticipated and Beat the 1987 Crash. Nadeem's forward looking analysis focuses on UK inflation, economy, interest rates and housing market. He is the author of five ebook's in the The Inflation Mega-Trend and Stocks Stealth Bull Market series that can be downloaded for Free.
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