Monday, September 27, 2021
China, India: Richer or Poorer? The Asian Pacific Financial Markets Forecast / Stock-Markets / Asian Economies
By: EWI
Dear Reader,
Today, both China and India are very different countries than 10 years ago. In so many ways, they are wealthier, safer and better.
But will these trends continue?
Our friends at Elliott Wave International are inviting you to get well-researched answers when you read this free excerpt ($59 value) from their September Asian-Pacific Financial Forecast.
See where China and India are in their Elliott wave patterns – and what that means for business and life in general.
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Monday, September 27, 2021
Stock Market Bubble Valuations Dot Com 2000 vs 2021 / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The US stock market has been content to rally to new highs with many stocks going to the Moon including most of our AI tech giants, a rally that I have been distributing into to the extent that I have now sold 80% of my holdings in the Top 6 AI stocks in my portfolio some of which I have been accumulating for over a decade (Microsoft). The primary objective of this analysis is the determine where we stand in terms of THE TOP, after all, all bull markets eventually do top either ending with a CRASH (1987) or a bear market (2000 and 2007). So what to hold and what to sell is the question I am asking myself, with a view to riding out a potential bear market / crash, where this analysis deploys a new automated metric of individual stock SELLING LEVELs so that one better knows where one stands in terms of ones portfolio, all in just one table. After all the risk we all fear is that of a 2000 style collapse that sends stocks lower for the next 20 years! Remember that bear market bottomed with a 85% collapse for tech stocks! Yes, one could say the likes of Amazon, Microsoft, Apple had become dirt cheap, but that would have been a very painful and prolonged discounting event. So a case of balancing the risks of letting some stocks ride whilst cashing in those that will pay a heavy price for their over exuberance all whilst being aware of the AI mega-trend trundling along in the background.
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Monday, September 27, 2021
Gold When the Tight Economic Rope Slackens / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021
By: Gary_Tanashian
[edit] Upon completing the article I realized that no forward look at the economy and financial markets from an inflationary/deflationary point of view would be complete without consideration of the Yield Curve. Here is its status at the time of writing. It is making a steepening hint this week along with the rise in bond yields. That signaling is inflationary, at least for now. But in 2008 the curve morphed from an inflationary steepener to a deflationary one and that’s an important distinction.
You’ll notice that a blessed Goldilocks economy is mentioned below as a less favored option for 2022. She runs with a flattening curve like the one during the 2013-2019 phase. If it steepens forget about Goldilocks and prepare for either an inflationary or deflationary steepener.
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Monday, September 27, 2021
The U.S. Government Plans to Default on Debt the Dishonest Way / Interest-Rates / US Debt
By: MoneyMetals
Debt troubles in China and Washington, D.C. helped boost safe-haven demand for precious metals early this week. By Thursday, however, investors piled back into stocks and sold safe havens like gold and silver again.
Platinum is making news for an unusual reason that has nothing to do with its primary demand sources in the automotive and jewelry industries. Instead, it has to do with the political fight over raising the debt ceiling.
Some Democrats are proposing that the Treasury Department issue a $1 trillion platinum coin as a way around the need to increase borrowing capacity.
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Monday, September 27, 2021
Stock Market Retest of the High? / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Andre_Gratian
Current Position of the Market
SPX Long-term trend: There is some evidence that we are still in the bull market which started in 2009 and which could continue until major cycles take over, and it ends. The 4550 projection which had been in effect since the March 2020 low has now been reached, but there is still no sign of a major top.
SPX Intermediate trend: A retest of the high is underway.
Analysis of the short-term trend is done daily with the help of hourly charts. They are important adjuncts to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which determine longer market trends.
Saturday, September 25, 2021
Tech Stocks Bubble Valuations 2000 vs 2021 / Stock-Markets / Tech Stocks
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The US stock market has been content to rally to new highs with many stocks going to the Moon including most of our AI tech giants, a rally that I have been distributing into to the extent that I have now sold 80% of my holdings in the Top 6 AI stocks in my portfolio some of which I have been accumulating for over a decade (Microsoft). The primary objective of this analysis is the determine where we stand in terms of THE TOP, after all, all bull markets eventually do top either ending with a CRASH (1987) or a bear market (2000 and 2007). So what to hold and what to sell is the question I am asking myself, with a view to riding out a potential bear market / crash, where this analysis deploys a new automated metric of individual stock SELLING LEVELs so that one better knows where one stands in terms of ones portfolio, all in just one table. After all the risk we all fear is that of a 2000 style collapse that sends stocks lower for the next 20 years! Remember that bear market bottomed with a 85% collapse for tech stocks! Yes, one could say the likes of Amazon, Microsoft, Apple had become dirt cheap, but that would have been a very painful and prolonged discounting event. So a case of balancing the risks of letting some stocks ride whilst cashing in those that will pay a heavy price for their over exuberance all whilst being aware of the AI mega-trend trundling along in the background.
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Saturday, September 25, 2021
Will Biden’s Neo-Populist Economic Doctrine Support Gold? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
Biden scaled back on his infrastructure bill. However, with all the remaining cards still in play, his economic agenda should be positive for gold.Inflation, bond yields, monetary policy… that’s all interesting and crucial to understand trends in the gold markets – but, hey, what’s up in politics? A lot has happened recently on this front. In particular, last month, the world was shocked by the chaotic withdrawal of US troops from Afghanistan. The messy pullover and the quick takeover of the country by the Taliban is not only the end of Biden’s honeymoon but also America’s great failure. Some analysts even say that the fall of Kabul is another Saigon time for the US. Indeed, it goes without saying that the collapse in Afghanistan is a huge blow to America’s reputation. So, it could weaken the faith in Uncle Sam and its currency, which could be positive for gold in the long run.
However, the end of the US mission in Afghanistan doesn’t pose any direct threats to America (although terrorism could thrive under the Taliban regime) or to the greenback. So, I don’t expect any substantial, long-lasting moves in gold prices (always remember that geopolitical events cause only short-lived fluctuations, if any).
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Saturday, September 25, 2021
Markets Deflationary Winds Howling / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2021
By: Monica_Kingsley
Without looking back, S&P 500 rallied in what feels as a short squeeze in ongoing risk-off environment. Daily rise in yields was not only unable to propel the dollar, but resulted in a much higher upswing in tech than value stocks – and that‘s a little fishy, especially when the long upper knot in VTV is considered.
The post-Fed relief simply took the bears for a little ride, and the Evergrande yuan bond repayment calmed the nerves. As if though the real estate sector was universally healthy – I think copper prices and the BHP stock price tell a different story. Things will still get interested in spite of PBOC moving in. The current macroeconomic environment will be very hard (economically and politically) to tighten into – have you noticed that the Turkish central bank unexpectedly cut rates?
Saturday, September 25, 2021
Crude Oil Price Piercing the Sky: Where Will We See the Black Gold by Xmas? / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Paul_Rejczak
Knock, knock? Is it already the sky, or just a ceiling? Either way, oil has risen substantially — how high can it go?
Fundamental Updates
The crude closed on highs on Thursday thanks to optimism about demand as well as the remaining tight supply. In fact, this increase is driven by a general market sentiment that is relatively favorable to the macroeconomic situation and the conviction that supply should remain tight until the end of 2021.
The WTI crude oil futures rose 1.5% - more than $1 compared to Wednesday's close. Like Wall Street, the oil market has also been sensitive to more and more reassuring tone of messages from China about the situation of real estate developer Evergrande, which is on the verge of default. In addition, the acceleration of air travel caused by Washington lifting restrictions on entry into the United States could also boost demand for kerosene. And finally, while natural gas prices are hanging from the ceiling, we could see a shift in demand from gas to oil happening, which would obviously boost the barrel rally in Q4!
Saturday, September 25, 2021
Cryptocurrency policy choices and consequences / Politics / cryptocurrency
By: Raymond_Matison
Almost all countries of the producing and developed world have made a policy decision as to how to define crypto currencies, and they do not define them as securities. The United States has not finalized its singular definition as its designation is not uniform among agencies: the United States Commodity Futures Trading Commission defines virtual crypto currencies as commodities, while the Internal Revenue Service defines them as property on which to collect capital gains taxes. The U.S. Treasury Department Financial Crimes Enforcement Network sees them as “counterfeit money” to be treated accordingly, and the Securities Exchange Commission wants to treat them as securities, which they would regulate. It is clear, that there is a “turf war” taking place as to which agency is to exert control regulation over this new virtual asset. There is much at stake: much more than which agency will regulate cryptocurrencies or be able to “extract favors” from the implementers of this new asset class. However, if policy decisions are not constructive to supporting this fast-growing industry, or if this decision takes too long to reach, the dynamic entrepreneurs will move to countries which are more supportive.
Let’s be clear, decisions have consequences, and how we define and regulate cryptocurrencies will have long-term nation-impacting consequences. Political leaders base most of their decisions and cast their votes in Congress for near term political benefits – as most will be out of the government when the long term consequences become operative. For example, politician’s support for increased government spending is nearly universal, despite the fact that over the longer term government debt accumulates to consequential levels.
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Saturday, September 25, 2021
The Next Emma Raducanu UK Tennis Star Pleasing the Crowds at Millhouses Park Sheffield / Personal_Finance / Health and Fitness
By: Anika_Walayat
British teen Emma Raducanu has rocked the tennis world by winning the US Open ($2.5 million prize money) and making history by being the first Brit to win Grand Slam Singles title in 44 years, instantly becoming one of the best know British sports stars barely weeks after collecting her A level results.
Her success has galvanised many youngsters across the UK to pick up their tennis rackets and head off for the local tennis courts. Where here we have one aspiring young Tennis player, Anika pleasing the crowds at Millhouses park. So watch this space of the next Emma Raducanu!
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Friday, September 24, 2021
Stock Market Rescued by the Fed Again? / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Monica_Kingsley
S&P 500 recovered only to dive again – carving out a base? The bulls are attempting to, but neither value, nor tech, nor the credit markets are convincing. The dust is settling though, and the bears are equally in need of a fresh reason to sell – the intraday tug of war is entirely reasonable as Evergrande failed to spook the markets more. Just wait for what happens when the markets come face to face with another unacknowledged event of this magnitude. In our era, it‘s about the contagion effect, manic-depressive market psychology, and uncertainty of the impact.
It‘s not only about China real estate cooling down, spilling over to Hong Kong. Wtll the House approval on the bill to suspend fresh borrowing obstacles and avoid a partial shutdown do? What would the Senate say – and then everyone as the tax tsunami keeps approaching? Global liquidity isn‘t rising after all either.
Fed taper is a side show, but still one that too many are glued to. The dollar would suffer if it doesn‘t materialize later today – and it won‘t be announced, which would make precious metals rejoice.
Back to stocks, these are also likely to welcome no taper. The Fed has been already tightening (which means these days it was decreasing the pace of expansion) through the back door, bringing down inflation expectations in spite of the real world input costs, shipping rates and frail supply chains challenges on top of the job market issues. Transitory inflation is still the mainstream thesis – the shift to real assets will become more accentuated once the realization of a higher and entrenched inflation arrives. And it‘s not about real estate and owners‘ equivalent rent either.
Friday, September 24, 2021
Are Amazon Best Cheap Memory Foam Mattresses Any good? Bedzonline £69 4ft Small Double ECO Example / Personal_Finance / Money Saving
By: HGR
Buying a cheap mattress foam from Amazon, here's what to expect in terms delivery, packaging, Unboxing and of course use, what chemical smell to expect and how long will it take to dissipate. How much will the foam mattress expand and who best can use it i.e. is it thick enough for someone who weighs over 200lbs or is is just for small light adults and teens, find out in our latest real customer review.
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Friday, September 24, 2021
Evergrande not a Minsky Moment / Stock-Markets / Financial Crisis 2021
By: Richard_Mills
The selloff in stocks that started last week and continued on Monday has some market observers wondering whether this is a “Minsky Moment”.
This refers to the idea that periods of bullish speculation will eventually lead to a crisis, wherein a sudden decline in optimism causes a spectacular market crash.
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Thursday, September 23, 2021
UK Energy Firms Scamming Customers Out of Their Best Fixed Rate Gas Tariffs / Personal_Finance / Household Bills
By: Nadeem_Walayat
UK Gas Market Panic! Apparently energy firms are going bust, or are they? Wh at's the odds most of these firms going bust are going to soon reappear under a slightly different name with probably the same staff and premises. We are being SCAMMED! UK Energy customers are being SCAMMED out of their Fixed rate tariffs because the greedy basket energy firms did NOT HEDGE the natural gas price that they were busy encouraging prospective customers to fix at! Now they want to cancel the contracts by offloading the customers onto the regulators who is then going to dump the customers onto other energy firms on much higher tariffs, probably TRIPLE the tariffs that the customers had been fixed at. What a CON! What a SCAM! The directors of any energy company perpetuating such as scam should be blacklisted!
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Thursday, September 23, 2021
Global Stock Markets Topped 60 Days Before the US Stocks Peaked / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Chris_Vermeulen
In the first part of this research article, I highlighted a number of factors and technical charts that suggest the true peak in the US/Global markets happened in April/May 2021. Although the US markets continued to trend higher after that peak, the global markets, as well as a number of key indicators, suggested the bullish price trend had reached a peak and started to weaken after the April/May 2021 peak.
My assumption is this data shows the markets entered a highly speculative phase of trading after the November 2020 elections. History shows us that the 12+ months prior to a US Presidential election are usually filled with uncertainty and sideways market volatility. Then, just after the US Presidential election is completed, the markets usually enter into a trending phase related to the expectations and promises of the newly elected US President. 2020 was no different in this process. What was different was the fact that the US Federal Reserve was still pouring trillions into supporting the post-COVID global economic recovery. So this post US Presidential election rally may have become a super-charged speculative rally phase with the US Fed backing the trends.
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Thursday, September 23, 2021
Should School Children be Jabbed with Pfizer Covid-19 Vaccine To Foster Herd Immunity? - UK / Politics / Coronavirus 2021
By: N_Walayat
Covid-19 is less severe in children though some do get long covid symptoms Astrazenica was the Aldi version of vaccines, good but higher risk, Pfizer is more the Tesco or Sainsbury version, a little more effective and a little safer. Yes, the risks of covid and its many variants in Children is very low.
However, the key benefits of vaccinating kids is that it greatly reduces transmission, spread of the virus to others i.e. the vaccinated infected shed much less viral particles, given that the virus has not gone away as the latest graphs illustrate.
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Thursday, September 23, 2021
Corruption at the Fed: Are America’s Money Masters Engaged in Self-Dealing? / Politics / US Federal Reserve Bank
By: MoneyMetals
By Jp Cortez : America’s central bankers are tasked with impartial oversight over aspects of the American economy. But could these individuals be making decisions on interest rates and bailout operations based on what is best for their own personal investment portfolios?
After some embarrassing revelations regarding the trading activities of two senior officials, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell abruptly ordered a comprehensive examination last week into internal compliance with an ethics rule directing Fed employees to avoid “actual and apparent conflicts of interest.”
Thursday, September 23, 2021
HOW TO SAVE MONEY ON CAR INSURANCE / Personal_Finance / Insurance
By: Submissions
Saving money on the cost of your car insurance is a simple task if you know what to look for, and what to ask for. Do not be afraid to ask questions when talking to an insurance agent. If the company that you are chatting with is hard to work with, or will not give you any help, then move on to the next carrier.
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Wednesday, September 22, 2021
Stock Market FOMO Hits September Brick Wall - Evergrande China's Lehman's Moment / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Dear Reader
My last analysis posted on the 1st of September proved to be a timely reminder that an historically overbought stock market on virtually every measure was entering into the seasonally worst trading month of the year that at the very least suggests to prepare for a significant correction with each passing day and there was even a possibility of market panic event, a CRASH for which there are countless indicators that I have been covering since Mid June such as what is taking place in the Reverse Repo market of a defacto brewing Financial Crisis 2.0, the magnitude of which we will only realise with the benefit of hindsight, hence why I sold out of 80% of my Top AI stocks during the summer months with the last being to exit IBM leaving my AI stocks portfolio in it's current state, devoid for the first time in many years of the likes of Microsoft Apple, Nvidia and Amazon, with holdings of Google and Facebook greatly reduced.
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