Thursday, October 14, 2021
How to Protect Your Self From a Stock Market CRASH / Bear Market? / InvestorEducation / Learning to Invest
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Stock Market CRASH / Correction
We will soon be moving into the window for a stock market correction where I penciled the probable expectations for it to take place sometime between Mid Sept to Mid October, though it could start earlier hence why I was not willing to wait around and de risked ahead of the window.
How much could the general indices such as the Dow drop? I have in mind a drop of somewhere between 15% to 20% as being the most provable outcome, though it is early days, so it could be less or it could a more but 15% to 20% is what I have had in mind for the likes of the Dow for some time.
Whether it will be just a correction and resume it's raging bull market or signal start of a bear market proper is uncertain, probability favours continuation but this is not 2011 when we were in a hated stealth bull market that few took seriously instead now every tom dick and harry thinks that stocks can only go up! And so will assume that buying the dip is a one way bet to stock market riches. Which is why one needs to focus on VALUATIONS! Buy when Stocks are CHEAP! For it allows one to survive BEAR MARKETs and not end up with a 20 year Dead Parrots like Cisco and Intel!
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Thursday, October 14, 2021
The Only way to Crush Inflation (not stocks) / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2021
By: Stephen_McBride
Folks are freaking out about inflation.
The US government’s own numbers show prices are rising at their fastest pace in 12 years…
Google searches for inflation hit their highest level ever last month…
You’re likely feeling it in your pocket too.
Tried to buy a car lately? If you can get your hands on one, it’ll cost you 40% more than last year.
Home prices are rising at their fastest pace in more than 30 years. And here in Ireland, the average heating bill is expected to jump $500 this winter.
Thursday, October 14, 2021
Why "Losses Are the Norm" in the Stock Market / InvestorEducation / Learning to Invest
By: EWI
"I can measure the motions of bodies, but I cannot measure human folly."
Did you know that Sir Isaac Newton "lost his shirt" in the South Sea Bubble of the 1720s?
This great scientist and mathematician lost more than the equivalent of a million 2021 dollars.
Here's a brief description of Newton's investment actions from Robert Prechter's landmark book, The Socionomic Theory of Finance:
[Sir Isaac Newton] invested a little bit early in the trend and "wisely" took a small profit. Watching the trend continue, he finally bet heavily and "wisely" held on for the long run. He eventually sold out at a near-total loss.
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Thursday, October 14, 2021
Sub Species Castle Maze at Alton Towers Scarefest 2021 / Personal_Finance / Travel & Holidays
By: Anika_Walayat
Prepared to be Scared! Very Sacred! Alton Towers Scarefest is BACK! Post pandemic frights for all you teens and adults and maybe a few brave kids too! Here Anika tours the Castle that houses the Sub Species maze.
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Thursday, October 14, 2021
Which Wallet is Best for Storing NFTs? / Currencies / Nanotech
By: Sumeet_Manhas
NFTs have been taking the world by storm over the last year or so. With some NFTs selling for millions of dollars, lots of investors and collectors are joining the craze all hoping to make a lot of money or collect unique digital art. The value of NFTs will differ, depending on how popular they are or who created them.
To store or exchange non-fungible tokens, users must have an NFT wallet. If you are looking to get into the NFT game, you should first find a wallet that suits your trading requirements. It's not possible to exchange NFTs without having a crypto wallet. Luckily, there are plenty of wallets out there to choose from. It is vital that you get a reputable wallet that protects your NFTs from fraud and hackers.
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Thursday, October 14, 2021
Ailing UK Pound Has Global Effects / Currencies / British Pound
By: Justin_Weinger
Are you among the millions of financial news watchers who wonder what is going on with the British pound (GBP)? If so, you've probably already noticed that one of the big four currencies has been dropping in recent months. Not since the first few weeks after the Brexit deal took effect has the UK's denominated currency been hit so hard. Its most recent value in terms of US dollars (USD) was $1.357, but what's worrying most traders is the GBP's volatility, which also stands are recent highs. There's no question that the pound is taking a pounding, but two questions are uppermost in the minds of forex enthusiasts:
- How will FX markets react to this recent development?
- What kinds of opportunities does the pound's woes offer to foreign exchange traders?
Wednesday, October 13, 2021
How to Get 6 Years Life Out of Your Overclocked PC System, Optimum GPU, CPU and MB Performance / Personal_Finance / Computing
By: HGR
How to maximise your desktop computers life without sacrificing performance, how to achieve that sweet spot of overclocking your processor without shortening it's life due to over heating, watch the video and you too can get a full 6 years use out of your system before the silicon starts to fail.
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Tuesday, October 12, 2021
The Demand Shock of 2022 / Economics / US Economy
By: Michael_Pento
Investors are growing cautious as we approach the fourth quarter, and their trepidation is justified. Here’s a brief summary of the situation: there is a potential global financial crisis stemming from the Chinese property market meltdown, supply chain bottlenecks are growing worse, Q3 Earnings warnings are being reported from many large corporations, interest rates are rising, inflation is at a 40-year high, tax hikes are coming in ’22, and the threat of a U.S. debt default still hangs in the air until the end of November.The macroeconomic situation today is one of stagflation. Meaning, inflation rates are higher than normal at the same time GDP growth is slowing. To this point, the data shows that 6.2 million people lost their benefits in the week of September 11tt, as most government pandemic unemployment relief programs expired. These people all need to find a job, and quickly, to supplant that huge government weekly stipend that is now gone. Instead, we find that weekly layoffs are consistently higher than any other time since before the pandemic all the way back through 2015. And, we see that only 194k net new jobs were added during the month of September.
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Tuesday, October 12, 2021
4 Reasons Why NFTs Could Be The Future / Personal_Finance / cryptocurrency
By: Sumeet_Manhas
The NFT craze has taken the digital world by storm. People all around the globe are investing in these non-fungible tokens for different reasons. Some are trying to make a profit while others are creating a collection of digital art.
Some people believe the NFT craze won’t last, while others think we are at the stone age of something incredible. There are several reasons to be skeptical, and it's impossible to tell what the future has in store for these digital assets, but there are a few reasons why NFT’s future is looking bright. Before getting into why NFTs isn’t just another flash in the pan, let's take a quick look at what NFTs actually are.
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Tuesday, October 12, 2021
Crimex Silver: Murder Most Foul / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021
By: The_Gold_Report
Precious metals expert Michael Ballanger decries last week's manipulations in the silver market. Anyone schooled in the Canadian educational system in the 1960s is by default familiar with William Shakespeare’s famous play Hamlet about a Danish prince that seeks revenge upon his uncle who was believed to have murdered his father to seize the Danish throne. As students forced to utilize a learning method called “rote,” we had to memorize literally the entire scene where the ghost of the murdered king utters those immortal words “Murder most foul.” Claimed to be the “most-filmed” of all literary works, Hamlet was also the genesis of Bob Dylan’s 17-minute-long ballad whose topic was JFK’s assassination in Dallas in November 1963, an event virtually every baby-boomer remembers vividly.
"Last Wednesday, traders watched an aberration, a deformity in the principles of “best price possible.”
They should also add September 29, 2021, to the list of notable murders because the victim this time was the integrity of the Comex trading arena (or “theater” in honor of Willie Shakespeare). To an even greater degree, it marked the final death of any respect or reverence for the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CTFC) because between the Crimex “exchange” and the CFTC, the rare remaining believers in free-market capitalism were led to slaughter by a mob of hedge funds that decided to take full and blatant advantage of the lack of regulatory oversight in order to pad their bonus pools the second-to-last trading day of the third quarter of 2021.
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Tuesday, October 12, 2021
Bitcoin Rockets In Preparation For Liftoff To $100,000 / Currencies / Bitcoin
By: Submissions
By Jason Appel - In my September article updating expectations and possibilities for Bitcoin to reach $100k, three paths were discussed that detail various perspectives for the near-term in Bitcoin (BTC-USD) on its way to $100k.
In this article, we will review the various paths presented in the September article, and reconcile the present action to find which of the scenarios appears most likely.
From the September article:
Three potential regions to catch price on the coming drop:
Black Count: In this count, we consider the prospect that the lows are in. Pullbacks are buying opportunities. Based on the low and high of the rally structure in question, our first region to watch ranges from approximately $36k-$42k. Should price form a symmetrical 3 wave move from the September 6th high into the aforementioned region and strongly bounce, we will have some additional evidence that the decline is complete and price is on its way to $100k+. Confirmation of this count displayed in black notation will ultimately confirm by price maintaining above $36k and breaking out above the September 6th high. Alternatively, should the price make a sustained break below the $33,600 region, we have a strong signal that lower lows are incoming.
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Monday, October 11, 2021
INTEL Tech Stock to the MOON! INTC 2000 vs 2021 Market Bubble WARNING / Companies / INTEL
By: Nadeem_Walayat
INTEL's 2000 stock price high of $76 had the chip giant trading on an earnings multiple of 42, which is hardly exuberant in today's terms. Today Intel trades at $54 on a P/E of just 12. If intel was trading on par with that of its 2000 high then the stock price today would at $189. Which also suggests Intel has never managed to fully recover from the dot com bust mostly down to failure to innovate due to bad management, hence for a good 6 years was stuck at 7nm whilst tiny competitors such as AMD have grabbed CPU market share. In recent years every time Intel dips below $48 I tend to buy a little, who knows given it's low valuation a breakout above $76 may send Intel to the moon once more. And this is how the Intel stock price has faired over the past 21 years.
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Monday, October 11, 2021
AI Stocks Portfolio Buying and Selling Levels Going Into Market Correction / Companies / Tech Stocks
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The US stock market has been content to rally to new highs with many stocks going to the Moon including most of our AI tech giants, a rally that I have been distributing into to the extent that I have now sold 80% of my holdings in the Top 6 AI stocks in my portfolio some of which I have been accumulating for over a decade (Microsoft). The primary objective of this analysis is the determine where we stand in terms of THE TOP, after all, all bull markets eventually do top either ending with a CRASH (1987) or a bear market (2000 and 2007). So what to hold and what to sell is the question I am asking myself, with a view to riding out a potential bear market / crash, where this analysis deploys a new automated metric of individual stock SELLING LEVELs so that one better knows where one stands in terms of ones portfolio, all in just one table. After all the risk we all fear is that of a 2000 style collapse that sends stocks lower for the next 20 years! Remember that bear market bottomed with a 85% collapse for tech stocks! Yes, one could say the likes of Amazon, Microsoft, Apple had become dirt cheap, but that would have been a very painful and prolonged discounting event. So a case of balancing the risks of letting some stocks ride whilst cashing in those that will pay a heavy price for their over exuberance all whilst being aware of the AI mega-trend trundling along in the background.
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Monday, October 11, 2021
Stock Market Wall of Worry Meets NFPs / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Monica_Kingsley
S&P 500 reached my target, and then folded like a cheap suit – into an overnight correction, without attempting to overcome 4,420. As much as the prior advance was broad based, so was the retreat. Tech, value, credit markets – but the decline wasn‘t sold into heavily, and that means the bulls can recover. Still, sizable long profits had been taken overnight automatically, as neither the buyers nor the sellers got anywhere.
The non-farm payrolls thesis goes like this – unless the figure is truly disappointing, the Fed would have to execute on the practically promised Nov taper announcement. Treasury yields aren‘t though buying it, and have ventured higher on their own already, just as inflation expectations did. The debt ceiling has turned into a drama that wasn‘t as the can was kicked down the road into early Dec. The dollar didn‘t react much to the wrangling, but the selling will soon revisit the world reserve currency that is taking its time.
Commodities aren‘t budging, and cryptos continue appreciating while precious metals see encouraging, yet intermittent signs of life that would be delivered through monetary stance reevaluation (that equals no taking the foot off the gas pedal). More follow through is needed in gold and silver, and the white metal should lead the upswing. Copper did confirm it on a daily basis yesterday, but the red metal remains still internally weak – unlike oil that didn‘t even properly pierce the $75 level.
Monday, October 11, 2021
Stock Market Intermediate Correction Continues / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Andre_Gratian
Current Position of the Market
SPX Long-term trend: The 4540 projection which had been in effect since the March 2020 low has now been reached, but it is too early to call for an end to the bull market which started in March 2009.
SPX Intermediate trend: An intermediate correction has started. Let’s see if it evolves into something more serious.
Analysis of the short-term trend is done daily with the help of hourly charts. They are important adjuncts to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which determine longer market trends.
Sunday, October 10, 2021
China / US Stock Markets Divergence / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Nadeem_Walayat
After having tracked each another quite closely since the pandemic low, Chinese stocks started to diverge during March 2021. The mania infected investors in US markets look to strong US GDP growth of +6.3% and strong earnings growth of 49% as reasons to ignore the lofty price earnings multiples, crazy valuations for trillion dollar corporations and even more for the mid cap tech stocks that are the darlings of the likes of ARK Invest, trading on bubble valuations that are literally straight out of the dot com bubble era where just as was the case then many don't even make a profit and a large percentage of which never will!
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Sunday, October 10, 2021
Can US Save Taiwan From China? Taiwan Strait Naval Battle - PLA vs 7th Fleet War Game Simulation / Politics / China US Conflict
By: N_Walayat
China over the past week has been ramping up it's incursions into Taiwanese air space culminating with Emperor Xi Jinping reiterating that Taiwan is a province of China and will reunify with the mainland either by peaceful means or by force. Whilst recently the US deployed 3 carrier groups accompanied by Britain's sole aircraft carrier near Taiwan though not in the Straits.
This war game simulation pits the Chinese PLA Navy against the US 7th Fleet that comprises 70 war ships including 2 air craft carriers, also deployed is a third carrier group with the objective of deterring the Chinese Navy from attacking Taiwan.
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Sunday, October 10, 2021
Gold Price Outlook: The Inflation Chasm Between Europe and the US / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021
By: P_Radomski_CFA
With inflation more than two times lower in Europe than in the US, the divergence between the economic zones deepens day by day. How might it impact gold?
QE Infinity
While I’ve warned on several occasions that the Fed and the ECB are worlds apart, the latter now wants to provide more QE once it concludes QE. To explain, with the ECB’s PEPP program set to expire at the end of March 2022, the central bank is increasingly worried about a bond market sell-off. And with sluggish Eurozone growth, exorbitant sovereign debt and a lack of fiscal impulse increasing the ECB’s anxiety, officials are studying “alternatives” to suppress interest rates in the Eurozone’s most debt-ridden countries.
Sunday, October 10, 2021
US Real Estate ETFs React To Rising Housing Market Mortgage Interest Rates / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Nadeem_Walayat
As the Real Estate market shifts away from super-low interest rates and skyrocketing home prices throughout the COVID-19 crisis, we are starting to see the Real Estate ETFs weaken in trend and start to move lower. The recent rising Mortgage Rates will likely continue to weaken sales trends and push home prices a bit lower over the next few months. The Real Estate ETF, IYR, is already reflecting a roughly 10% decline in valuation since early September 2021.
In the first part of this research article, I shared a historical chart of the US Average Mortgage rate and some data suggesting the average US consumer is somewhat bound to certain home price constraints based on Average Income. Typically, mortgage payments should stay below 50% of the borrower’s total take-home income. Depending on the borrower and the home price, many US borrowers may already be priced out of the market – even with 3.25% interest rates.
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Saturday, October 09, 2021
US China War over Taiwan Simulation 2021, Invasion Forecast - Who Will Win? / Politics / China US Conflict
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The War with China Mega-trend. If you have been following my analysis over the past 5 years then you will know that I expect a war with China is being inevitable with many flashpoint's for an hot war likely culminating in the nuking of the spratly Islands in the South China Sea.
This simulation covers what is most probable outcome if China launched an all out assault to seize Taiwan and the US chose to intervened with determined force i.e. its 7th Fleet comprising 2 air craft carriers and about 70 ships to deter such an attack.
So who would win such an engagement of largely naval forces on an epic scale?
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