Thursday, October 07, 2021
Gold: Evergrande Investors' Savior / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021
By: The_Gold_Report
Sector expert Michael Ballanger links debt and wolf packs in this exploration of the effects that the troubled Chinese company will have on gold.
When I first launched the GGMA Advisoryservice in January 2020, the very first Forecast Issue dealt with the globe's number one ailment, and it was not then, and is not today, related to mankind's physical health but rather its financial health. The word that kept resonating throughout that issue was debt.
If the global financial system was a human body, debt would be the fatty tissue that surrounds and clogs our organs, while recessions would be the fasting that rids the body of type 2 diabetes, obesity and depression. The problem that I identified as early as 2008 was that those that would manage our lives (whether elected or unelected) carry a belief system that holds that the best cure for obesity is a bowl of chicken noodle soup followed by six Big Macs and a big slice of apple pie.
"Debt default in tough times is the economic wolf pack that culls the economy of inefficient businesses and excesses."
In other words, it has been debt that has caused the past two major financial upheavals, and both involved the unprecedented creation of mind-boggling amounts of debt in order to avoid the natural cleansing of debt that occurs during economic downturns.
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Thursday, October 07, 2021
Here's What Really Sets Interest Rates (Not Central Banks) / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates
By: EWI
See "powerful evidence that the Fed is not in control of interest rates"
Most everyone is familiar with the phrase: "Keep your eye on the ball," which of course means -- focus on what really matters.
Those who seek clues about the direction of interest rates believe the "ball" is their nation's central bank.
For example, in the U.S., Federal Reserve announcements are the subject of countless financial headlines, like this one from Sept. 22 (Reuters):
Fed signals bond-buying taper coming 'soon,' rate hike next year
The assumption in most of these headlines is that the central bank determines the direction of rates.
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Wednesday, October 06, 2021
CISCO 2020 Dot com Bubble Stock vs 2021 Bubble Tech Stocks Warning Analysis / Companies / Tech Stocks
By: Nadeem_Walayat
CISCO, the backbone of the then fast developing internet, much as Tesla is the backbone of the fast emerging EV and automated vehicles sector, with the likes of Google throwing tens of billions into AI and robotics each year. Everyone owned Cisco, just as everyone owns Google, Amazon, Apple or Facebook stock today.
Back In March 2000 Cisco was trading at a price of $146, on a PE of 120, to the moon, TO THE MOON! Where many were concerned Cisco WAS the Internet, one of the most valuable certification tracks of the time were those by Cisco, where even I was CCNA certified, desperately trying not to get further sucked into the highly costly Cisco certification tracks where CCNA gave way to CCNP to CCIE and beyond, the certifications were mushrooming into more OTT levels than what scientology has! CCNA OTTIV where after decades and several hundreds of thousands of dollars one would become one with the internet, be able to move data packets around with their mind! Other companies soon saw what a money spinner the certification tracks were and so the likes of Microsoft started their own such as Microsoft Office certifications, but I digress.
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Wednesday, October 06, 2021
Precious Metals Complex Searching for a Bottom / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021
By: Rambus_Chartology
Lets start with the BPGDM, Gold miners bullish percent chart which has just made a lower low along with the GDX on top. If you recall I was looking for some kind of divergence between the 2 which hasn’t happened yet red arrows on right side of the chart. There is no doubt that the BPGDM is trading down toward the low end of its range between 100 on top and zero on the bottom. It would be nice to see the GDX on top trade back above the 2016 horizontal S&R line at 30.50.
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Wednesday, October 06, 2021
FB, AMZN, NFLX, GOOG, AAPL and FANG+ '5 Waves' Speaks Volumes / Companies / Tech Stocks
By: EWI
Hi Reader,
On the heels of Facebook's 5% sell-off, it's worth talking about the rest of the FAANGs -- the tech heavyweights: Apple (AAPL), Amazon (AMZN), Netflix (NFLX); and Alphabet (GOOG).
Our friends at the world's largest market-forecasting firm Elliott Wave International tell us that for the past couple of weeks, something's been happening in the FANG+ index that deserves your attention.
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Wednesday, October 06, 2021
Budgies Flying Ability 10 Weeks After wings Clipped, Flight Feathers Cut Grow Back / Personal_Finance / Animals & Pets
By: N_Walayat
So you have just clipped your budgies wings or are contemplating clipping it's wings and are wondering how long will it take for the budgie to grow new flight feathers and start flying around the room again which I answer of what to expect 10 weeks after 2 budgies had their flight feathers clipped in our latest budgies / parakeets care video, where the Green budgie had a total of 10 flight feathers clipped whilst the Blue budgie had 8 clipped. So lets find out how many have grown back after 10 weeks and what their flying capabilities are.
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Tuesday, October 05, 2021
Why Silver Price Could Crash by 20%! / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021
By: Nadeem_Walayat
It has been a while since my last in-depth analysis of Silver as the commodity is not on my investing or trading radar with my primary focus on AI stocks, the stock market in general ahead of an expected significant correction and even the possibility of a market panic event to capitalise upon (Dow Trend Forecast Sept 2021 to May 2022). Nevertheless early in the course of this analysis I did post a quick technical take in market briefs that warned of a possible 20% crash in the silver price that this analysis seeks to expand on to conclude in a detailed trend forecast into mid 2022.
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Tuesday, October 05, 2021
Will China's Crackdown Send Bitcoin's Price Tumbling? / Currencies / Bitcoin
By: EWI
July 2: "Bitcoin [is] at or near the end of [an Elliott wave] correction"
In early September, bitcoin hit a price level near $52,000 -- however, since then, the price has trended lower.
Indeed, on September 24 alone, the price of the cryptocurrency fell 5%.
The financial press pinpointed a supposed "cause":
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Tuesday, October 05, 2021
Natural Gas News: Europe Lacks Supply, So It Turns to Asia / Commodities / Natural Gas
By: Paul_Rejczak
What’s happening in the natural gas markets? Prices are surging like crazy. The answer may be complex, but I’m here to provide it.
Market Analysis
Today, we expect the market to be accumulating since the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) on Thursday reported an injection of 88 billion cubic feet (Bcf) of natural gas into storage for the week ending on Sept. 24. This could indeed be explained by warmer temperatures and entering the month of October.
Tuesday, October 05, 2021
Stock Market Correction: One More Spark to Light the Fire? / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: P_Radomski_CFA
With earnings season beginning in October, a profound correction of the S&P 500 could add fuel to the fire of the already well-supported U.S. dollar.
While the USD Index was largely flat on Sep. 30, the EUR/USD closed at a new 2021 low. And because the currency pair accounts for nearly 58% of the movement of the USD Index, its performance is material. Moreover, while I’ve been warning for months that the Fed and the ECB are worlds apart, the EUR/USD still hasn’t priced in the magnitude of the divergence.
Tuesday, October 05, 2021
Fractal Design Meshify S2, Best PC Case Review, Build Quality, Airflow etc. / Personal_Finance / Computing
By: HGR
Fractal Design's new Meshify 2 case is not the same as the S2 Meshify! This $140-ish airflow-oriented Meshify 2 featured plenty of space for even the most massive of GPU's, good component arrangement options for 360 mm rads and plenty of hard drives location options, topped off with a tempered glass panel
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Monday, October 04, 2021
Chasing Value with Five More Biotech Stocks for the Long-run / Companies / BioTech
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Five more biotech stocks to add to the strategy of invest and forget for a potential X10 return. a reminder of why I am engaging in this binge on biotech stocks after having been focused on AI stocks for the past 5 years.
1. Biotech stocks are an unloved stocks sector whilst tech stocks over valued, even the ultra safe stocks such as the Top 10, so I am reluctant to add at current valuations hence why I hit the SELL button for the first time in many years and reduced my exposure to AI stocks by about 40%.
2. That biotech is a derivative of AI, we'll most sectors will soon become a derivative of AI because it is the PRIMARY tech megatrend of our age that will continue to broaden its reach to encompass all sectors of the economy.
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Monday, October 04, 2021
Gold’s Century - While stocks dominated headlines, gold quietly performed / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021
By: Michael_J_Kosares
1. Gold has produced positive returns in 16 of the last 20 years.
2. Gold’s average annual return compounded since 2001 is 10.32%. (2001-2020)
3. Gold has been a portfolio stalwart. A $100,000 investment in gold in January 2001 would be worth about $655,000 today. At gold’s peak in 2020, it would have been worth over $750,000.
4. Gold does not have a political preference. Its ascent has occurred during the terms of four presidents – two Democrats (Bill Clinton and Barack Obama) and two Republicans (George Bush and Donald Trump). Its largest gain – 31.92% in 2007 – came under a Republican (Bush). Its second-largest increase – 29.24% in 2009 – came under a Democrat (Obama).
5. Gold is not swayed by who leads the Federal Reserve. Its ascent has occurred during the terms of four different Fed chairs with four distinctly different styles and approaches to monetary policy – Alan Greenspan, Ben Bernanke, Janet Yellen, and Jerome Powell – and under a variety of economic circumstances and events.
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Monday, October 04, 2021
NASDAQ Stock Market Head-n-Shoulders Warns Of Market Weakness – Critical Topping Pattern / Stock-Markets / Tech Stocks
By: Chris_Vermeulen
The unique technical setup in the NASDAQ over the past 30+ days is warning that the markets have lost momentum and may attempt to break below the $14,700, the Neck Line of the Head-n-Shoulders pattern. This unique price setup crept up over the past 20+ days as the US markets started to move away from upward price momentum as the Chinese and US market dynamics started to shift away from the continued reflation trade expectations. What does this Head-n-Shoulders pattern mean for traders and investors right now?
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Monday, October 04, 2021
US Dollar on plan, attended by the Gold/Silver ratio / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021
By: Gary_Tanashian
US dollar (DXY) has activated its Inverted H&S, Gold/Silver maintains its uptrend, watch silver going foward…
I do not make predictions because I do not pretend to be a guru.* But NFTRH has been tracking what has been an uptrend in the US dollar for all of 2021, keeping us well aware of the potentials being realized from late summer into the fall. A higher low was made in May and now a higher high, completing an Inverted Head & Shoulders pattern that we’ve been projecting since USD put in the theoretical right side shoulder last spring.
Until recently it was a projection. Now it is active after testing the (dashed) neckline, holding the (blue) 50 day average and busting to a new high for the cycle. Simple, no predictions but a heck of a lot of attention and respect for the process.
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Sunday, October 03, 2021
Aptorum Group - APM - High RIsk Biotech Stocks Buy, Sell, Hold Investing Analysis for the Long-run / Companies / BioTech
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Five more biotech stocks to add to the strategy of invest and forget for a potential X10 return. a reminder of why I am engaging in this binge on biotech stocks after having been focused on AI stocks for the past 5 years.
1. Biotech stocks are an unloved stocks sector whilst tech stocks over valued, even the ultra safe stocks such as the Top 10, so I am reluctant to add at current valuations hence why I hit the SELL button for the first time in many years and reduced my exposure to AI stocks by about 40%.
2. That biotech is a derivative of AI, we'll most sectors will soon become a derivative of AI because it is the PRIMARY tech megatrend of our age that will continue to broaden its reach to encompass all sectors of the economy.
3. That one of my former biotech 12xers got taken over (GW Pharma) that flooded my account with cash early May and so that focused my attention on repopulating my portfolio with 10 more biotech stocks where I expect at least 3 to 10x, with most of the rest expected to survive to varying extent. Though this is the stock market and so there are never any guarantees especially where such smallish cap stocks are concerned.
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Sunday, October 03, 2021
US Close to Hitting the Debt Ceiling: Gold Doesn’t Care / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
Another fiscal year, another governmental fight to raise the debt limit. A failure spells a crisis, but gold turns a blind eye and continues its fall.So, America has a new tradition! The government shutdown is coming. A new fiscal year starts tomorrow, and if Congress fails to agree on a budget by the end of today, the government will shut down.
What does it mean for the US economy? According to Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, the failure to lift the debt ceiling could be a catastrophe:
If the debt ceiling is not raised, there would be a financial crisis, a calamity. It would undermine confidence in the dollar as a reserve currency (…) It would be a wound of enormous proportions (…) It is imperative that Congress swiftly addresses the debt limit. If it does not, America would default for the first time in history. The full faith and credit of the United States would be impaired, and our country would likely face a financial crisis and economic recession.
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Sunday, October 03, 2021
Powell: Inflation Might Not Be Transitory, After All / Economics / Inflation
By: P_Radomski_CFA
At a panel discussion, Fed Chair finally admitted that inflation could be more (!) long-lasting than expected. What does it mean? Hawks. Lots of them.
Capitulation
With Fed Chairman Jerome Powell finally having his ‘come-to-Jesus’ moment on Sep. 29, the central bank chief’s skittish words helped light a fire under the USD Index. For context, I’ve been warning for months that Powell remains materially behind the inflation curve. And with his indecisive speech upending the Fed’s confidence game, the gambit is showing signs of unraveling.
Speaking at an ECB panel discussion on Sep. 29, he said:
“The current inflation spike is really a consequence of supply constraints meeting very strong demand. And that is all associated with the reopening of the economy, which is a process that will have a beginning, middle and an end. It’s very difficult to say how big the effects will be in the meantime or how long they last.”
For context, first it was “base effects,” then it was “transitory” and now “it’s very difficult to say.”
Sunday, October 03, 2021
Original Oculus VR HeadSet Rift Dev Kit v1 Before Facebook Bought Oculus / Personal_Finance / Virtual Reality
By: Anika_Walayat
Here's a blast from the past! The original Oculus VR HeadtRift Dev Kit v1 Before Facebook Bought Oculus in early 2014.
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Friday, October 01, 2021
Microsoft Stock Valuation 2021 vs 2000 Bubble - Buy Sell or Hold Invest Analysis / Companies / Microsoft
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Microsoft's stock price in March 2000 was trading at $120 on a earnings multiple of 56 as the stock was in a race to become the worlds first $1 trillion market cap stock. Set this against today's price of $289 and multiple of 36, coupled with an EC score of 71.
This video is an excerpt form my recent in-depth analysis evaluates the current state of the tech stocks bubble of 2021 in comparison to 2000. AI Stocks Portfolio Buying and Selling Levels, Bubble Valuations 2000 vs 2021
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