Tuesday, August 31, 2021
Gold GDX Stocks, A Proxy for the Precious Metals Complex / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2021
By: Rambus_Chartology
I’ve been suggesting for some time now that the PM complex is trading at a critical inflection point where they can have a big move in either direction. It may sound like a copout but that is what an inflection point is. Many times at a critical inflection point, in the case of the PM stock indexes, support can hold beautifully or there can be a false breakout of the the S&R line which can be called a bear trap if the price action trades back above that important trendline.
Tonight I’m going to use the GDX as a proxy for the rest of the PM stock indexes which is showing us a great example of the current critical inflection point. The most basic concept in Chartology is how an important trendline can reverse its role to what had been resistance to support once broken to the upside and vise versa. The psychology behind an important trendline, using the top rail of the 2016 flat top expanding triangle on this weekly chart for the GDX below, is that when the top rail of the flat top expanding triangle was broken to the upside everyone that bought below the top rail is above water. As long as there isn’t a big breach of the top rail most will feel comfortable and not sell.
Every trendline you put on a chart is a support and resistance line, above is bullish and below is bearish. This is why we are always looking for a backtest when we see a breakout of a chart pattern. It doesn’t happen all the time but it does happen enough to always be on guard.
Lets focus on the top rail of the 2016 flat top expanding triangle that starts at the 2016 high and runs horizontally to the right side of the chart. Not many caught the double top that formed just below the 2016 trendline which led to the March 2020 crash low. As you can see there were 3 important touches from below. After the 2020 crash low was put in you can see the vertical rally that ensued but this time the top rail gave way. After several more weeks of moving higher the GDX completed its first backtest which could have been the backtest which would lead to the next important move higher but that wasn’t the case.
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Tuesday, August 31, 2021
The Delta Variant Scam / Politics / Coronavirus 2021
By: James_Quinn
“This work was strictly voluntary, but any animal who absented himself from it would have his rations reduced by half.” ― George Orwell, Animal Farm
“There are three types of lies — lies, damn lies, and statistics.” ― Benjamin Disraeli
It’s amazing how you can lie with statistics when you don’t provide context and/or leave key information out of your false narrative. As of July 4, the entire covid fear narrative was dying out, with cases crashing to new lows and the Big Pharma vaccine profit machine sputtering. That is when those controlling the media narrative began running the stories about the Indian variant and the imminent tragedy. As cases soared over 350,000 per day, the MSM was predicting bodies piling up in the streets.
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Monday, August 30, 2021
Stock Market Taper Shock That Never Was / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Monica_Kingsley
Yes, more paring the risk-on bets came yesterday, indiscriminately taking down stocks (tech and value alike), oil and copper. The overall shape of the consolidation in real assets (commodities and precious metals) remains bullish though – it‘s mainly in the S&P 500 that the hanging man candle is giving me a pause – temporarily lower stock prices would be favored by the VIX too.
Regardless of that:
(…) Margin debt is contracting, M2 not exactly at the prior rates of growth, but celebrations in the paper and real asset markets largely go on. Gold and silver are understandably lagging in the drummed up taper expectations, but I‘m not looking for any kind of dramatic statement from the Fed. The two steps forward, one step backwards melodrama is likely to continue into the September FOMC, and even that may very well leave the markets guessing. The Fed is in no position to tighten, the economic recovery is likely to continue, and the central bank won‘t kill it – which means continuous noises, and data dependecy as they like to call it.
What we have seen thus far, and are likely to see next, are stealth real attempts to test the markets‘ tolerance to the continuing monetary largesse to the extent permitted by actual fiscal realities (nice qualifier to say „don‘t expect too much“), verbal interventions projecting the (sooner than anticipated, and most importantly, actually viable in the marketplace) taper (and later tightening) images while seeing the dollar hovering in a position of relative strength (useful tool to take on cost inflation). Make no mistake, Powell is keen to cement his legacy, and that doesn‘t involve succumbing to the hawkish (ehm, considered as hawkish in our loose monetary era) calls during a slowdown in the real economy growth.
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Monday, August 30, 2021
Fed Chairman Doubles Down on Loose Money as Inflation Rages / Interest-Rates / US Federal Reserve Bank
By: MoneyMetals
Precious metals markets are rallying on some early Friday remarks from Jerome Powell. The Federal Reserve chairman is speaking at the Jackson Hole virtual gathering of central bankers Friday and Saturday, and he started off by emphasizing the view that high inflation readings will come down soon.
There is still a question of whether anything has changed since the last Fed policy meeting. There, Fed officials had suggested they may soon begin tapering their asset purchases.
Something that could give the Fed’s money masters an excuse to back down on tapering is the recent global surge in COVID cases linked to the Delta variant.
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Monday, August 30, 2021
Stock Market Drawing Ever Closer to Final Target? / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Andre_Gratian
Current Position of the Market
SPX Long-term trend: There is some evidence that we are still in the bull market which started in 2009 and which could continue into 2021 until major cycles take over, and it ends. A move up to ~4500 is possible before the current bull market makes a final top and SPX corrects into its next major cycle low due in 2023.
SPX Intermediate trend: SPX correction underway.
Analysis of the short-term trend is done daily with the help of hourly charts. They are important adjuncts to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which determine longer market trends.
Sunday, August 29, 2021
Stock market risk not yet realized / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Gary_Tanashian
Stock market is at high risk, but…
The ‘but’ is the old saying “markets can remain [seemingly] irrational longer than you can remain solvent” if you fight a trend that is intact at any given point. Since March, 2020 that trend has been up.
Structurally Over-bullish
Below is a chart showing the 10 week exponential moving average of the Equity Put/Call ratio (CPCE) that we review periodically in NFTRH for a view of the structural over-bullish situation in stocks. I write structural because it has extended much longer than extremes in the CPCE have done at previous ‘bull killer’ danger points, after which risk was realized in the form of moderate to severe corrections.
The trend began logically enough at a ‘bear killer’ reading in the midst of max pandemic fear. We noted at the time that market participants were not just bearish, not just risk averse, but absolutely terrified. So the recipe is this: take 1 lump of terrified investors, add a heaping helping of the Fed’s money printing and voila, enjoy the taste of a slingshot rally that is very filling despite its inflationary odor.
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Sunday, August 29, 2021
Play the Odds: Avoid Gambling in Rigged Markets / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2021
By: MoneyMetals
Is America becoming a nation of gamblers?
The lure of potential cash windfalls is driving rampant speculation in financial markets and record traffic to casinos.
The commercial gaming industry generated a record $13.6 billion in revenues during the second quarter, according to the Las Vegas Review-Journal. Casinos in Las Vegas, Massachusetts, Louisiana, and elsewhere now expect 2021 to be their best year ever.
On the flip side, since all games on a casino floor are rigged in favor of the house, it’s a good bet that gamblers are losing record amounts of money.
Sunday, August 29, 2021
Jackson Hole Ahead! What Should We Expect? / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
Gold prices fluctuate around $1,800, waiting for signals from the Fed at Jackson Hole. Which way will we go after the conference?Finally! The price of gold returned above $1,800 this week, as the chart below shows. It’s a nice change after the slide in early August. Although gold has rebounded somewhat, bulls shouldn’t open the champagne yet. A small beer would be enough for now, as the yellow metal already retreated from $1,800 on Wednesday (the fact that gold was unable to stay above this level is rather disappointing).
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Sunday, August 29, 2021
CENTRALIZATION, BLOCKCHAIN and DECENTRALIZATION / Politics / BlockChain
By: Raymond_Matison
Brief history of centralization
One important but mostly uncomplimentary history of man is recorded through his activities in war. Thousands of years ago large marauding bands of tribesmen descended on small communities or villages pillaging or killing its inhabitants. As centuries of time passed, small communities coalesced to become larger villages, some of which eventually expanded and grew to become city states or petty kingdoms.
In 480 B.C. Xerxes invaded Greek city states, but after taking Athens had to retreat. As William McNeil, author of his magnificent book “The Rise of the West” states: “free men organized into city-states need fear no military danger from without”. This early centralization of men and weapons protected cities from conquest at that time. The concept of certain centralization and its benefits became acknowledged and gained momentum over future centuries. In the seventeenth century, after the 30 year war, new legal principles for states and sovereignty were established in 1648. Under the new Westphalian system, states would exist with agreed-upon borders as each state’s sovereignty was recognized by others. This became another historical benchmark for increasing centralization.
Over the next several centuries, the so called industrial revolution with its centralization of production and factories provided heretofore unforeseen job and income opportunities for the general populace, further rapidly accelerating growth of cities and population movement from rural to urban areas. Increased production and worker incomes spurred sales providing useful products to the masses, and profits creating a dramatic centralization of wealth and power for these owners of productive facilities.
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Saturday, August 28, 2021
AI Predicts AI Tech Stock Price Valuations into 2024 / Companies / AI
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Dear Reader
This analysis is focused on my continuing journey to gradually off load my stock analysis processing power onto neural nets where this net attempts to forecast the value of AI stocks 3 years out based on my EC indicator resulting in a upwards pressure under the stock price indicator.
This article is an excerpt form my recent in-depth analysis : AI Predicts AI Tech Stock Price Valuations into 2024, Time to Buy Chinese Tech Stocks?
Contents:
- AI Stocks Value Forecaster (ASVF).
- How I Use ASVF6 - Percent Upwards Pressure (PUP)
- AI Stocks Buying Levels Plus ASVF & PUP
- AI Stocks Portfolio Buying Levels
- Dow Stock Market Trend Forecasting Neural Nets
- Pattern Recognition
- Trend Analysis Preprocessing
- Crossing the Rubicon With These Three High Risk Tech Stocks
- Cheap Chinese Tech Stock 1
- Cheap Chinese Tech Stock 2
- Cheap Chinese Tech Stock 3
- CME Black Swan
Saturday, August 28, 2021
Stock Market IWM Sets Up Dual Pennant/Flag Formation – Suggesting Very Volatile Apex Even / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Recently, we’ve seen an extended sideways price trend in the Russell 2000 sector that started in February/March of 2021. The peak price level on the IWM, the Ishares Russell 2000 ETF, reached $234.29 and has consolidated in a sideways price range for more than five months now. In mid-July, IWM broke lower and established a fresh new price low of $209.05 – setting up a second Pennant/Flagging price formation (in YELLOW). We believe this extended sideways Pennant/Flagging price channel is setting up a major volatility event (breakout or breakdown) as the price continues to near the Apex.
Dual Pennant/Flag Setups Suggest Big Volatility On The Horizon For Traders
We’ve drawn the longer-term Pennant/Flagging channel in CYAN and the more recent Pennant/Flagging channel in YELLOW. What we find interesting is that price is certainly attempting to break free of this channel recently but has continued to be constrained by a lack of directional momentum.
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Friday, August 27, 2021
AI Neural Net Predicts Facebook, AMD, and Nvidia Stock Prices Three Years Ahead / Companies / AI
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Here my neural net stock price forecaster predicts where Amazon, Microsoft and Apple stock prices will be trading in 3 years time. For an expiation of the forecaster see AI Stocks Value Forecaster (ASVF) as excerpted form my recent extensive analysis -
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Friday, August 27, 2021
How "Hot" Meme Stock Market Ideas Can Burn Investors / Companies / Investing 2021
By: EWI
The Meme Stock Index sees a 36% decline since January
On July 30, this headline appeared on a well-known investment website:
It's Definitely Possible to Make a Fortune Off Meme Stocks
And, it's definitely true that many investors, especially newbies, have tried.
As you probably know, "meme" stocks may be loosely defined as stocks that become a white-hot focus of interest due to social media hype. The price of these shares can skyrocket within a short period of time. However, as you might imagine, these highly speculative issues can just as quickly turn southward.
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Friday, August 27, 2021
Why Google Could KILL Bitcoin - Crypto Market Black Swans / Currencies / cryptocurrency
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Whilst we can all get carried away projecting into the future based on past trends, comfortable in the reliability of calculations. However, there are always black swans lurking out of sight that could result in that panic event that few see coming. And where Bitcoin and the crypto's are concerned is if the Governments decide to BAN trading and investing in crypto's.
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Friday, August 27, 2021
Scarborough Seaside Sun Sea, and Sand Sights and Sounds Birthday Beach Holiday 2021 / Personal_Finance / Holidays
By: N_Walayat
It's the Walayat Family tradition to head to the beach for Eliza's Birthday's given that her birthday is in prime holiday season, and so it was for her 7th Birthday where this year we headed for Scarborough after giving the beach birthday a miss last year due to the Pandemic and the preceding years birthday taking place on several Cornwall beaches. So here are some of the sights and sounds of Scarborough, sun, sea, sand and attractions. Just goes to show one does not need to go abroad to have a fun holiday.
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Friday, August 27, 2021
How to Drop Temps on a HOT WD My book Duo External Hard Drives Cooling to Prevent Data Loss / Personal_Finance / Computing
By: HGR
Western Digital External Drives Run HIOT! They are not really designed to be under constant load, so if you are using them under constant load then they will overheat, thermal throttle and risk the loss of data!
So what is the solution if one wants to keep a drive attached permanently? We'll COOLING, and so here's an example of how to Cool HOT WD drives where in this example I am seeking to quickly cool a HOT 28tb twin drive My Book DUO.
If you are looking for a My Book DUO then check out these Amazon pages to grab a potential bargain for instance I paid just £550 for these at the time of purchase (amazon affiliate links).
UK - https://amzn.to/3sK5ZLH
US - https://amzn.to/3cKaErq
Thursday, August 26, 2021
Gold Price GameStop Stock Connection? It's an Emotions Game / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021
By: P_Radomski_CFA
There are many factors affecting gold prices on a daily basis, but… how can GameStop stock be one of them?
Given today’s pre-market slide in gold, it seems that the triangle-vertex-based turning point worked once again. Declines are likely next.
In yesterday’s analysis, I explained why the situation remains very similar to what happened in 2013, and that remains up-to-date. On top of that, two interesting things happened yesterday: one quite obvious and one less obvious.
Thursday, August 26, 2021
6 Reasons Why You Should Consider Painting Your Home's Exterior / Housing-Market / Home Improvements
By: Submissions
Your home's exterior is the first thing visitors see when they come to your home. Home improvements such as exterior painting will give your home a remarkable appeal. Here are the reasons why you should consider painting your home's exterior.
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Thursday, August 26, 2021
Investing During Stock Market Uncertainty / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Nadeem_Walayat
This is a continuation of my recent extensive analysis in advance of Financial Crisis 2.0 as a handful of stocks are driving the indices higher, Apple worth $2.3 trillion, Microsoft $2 trillion, Amazon $1.8 trillion, Google 1.8 trillion, Facebook $1 trillion even that over priced pile of poop Tesla came close to being valued at $1 trillion, we are definitely in a bubble, you only need to go onto youtube and watch the to the moon videos of Cathy Wood, literally everything's going to go to the moon because her barely out of puberty Quants decree it to be so. This is clearly a major warning sign of a unsustainable trend when indices are ruled by such a small clique of tech stocks where the greatest similarity is with the dot come bubble in terms of the valuation of stocks that actually produce revenues unlike the largely worthless dot com's of that time.
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Thursday, August 26, 2021
Stock Market Rally On – Price Range Continues To Narrow As Reflation Trade Flags Out / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Chris_Vermeulen
After a week of moderate volatility, while Consumer Sentiment and other economic data surprised traders/investors, the US markets entered a strong rally phase early in trading on Monday, August 23, 2021. This suggests traders continue to buy the dips in expectation of a never-ending rally trend.
Bucking Consumer Sentiment Trends
While the US markets continue to trend higher, some of our custom indicators and modeling systems have recently warned of market weakness setting up in cross-market sectors. Additionally, last week, the foreign markets took a bit of a beating while general commodities moved decidedly lower. Overall, it is tough to argue with this upward price trend – even while other indicators suggest intermediate market strength may be weakening.
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