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Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Stock-Markets

Wednesday, February 07, 2024

Financial Markets Narrative Nonsense / Stock-Markets / Financial Crisis 2024

By: The_Gold_Report

The term "narrative" is defined as "story that you write or tell to someone, usually in great detail. A narrative can be a work of poetry or prose, or even song, theater, or dance. Often, a narrative is meant to include the "whole story." A summary will give a few key details, and then the narrative will delve into the details."

 This perfectly describes the manner in which financial assets are deified by the MSM and fed on a silver platter to unsuspecting buyers of "all things Wall Street,"  especially the shares of companies that have no earnings and very few assets but a mountain of narrative content that tells a wonderful little "story" about what might happen if all goes right. Visions of net worth sugar plums dance in millions of heads around the planet every time they hear the cheerleaders on CNBC prattle on about the "strong economy" being driven forward by a "resilient consumer" who have oodles and oodles of "cash on the sidelines" with which to drive stock prices endlessly higher.

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Commodities

Wednesday, February 07, 2024

Gold Price Long-Term Outlook Could Not Look Better / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2024

By: Clive_Maund

I haven't written much about gold in the recent past — since the failed breakout attempt early in December — simply because I haven't known what to make of it, and that indecisiveness has been reflected in the market itself, where we have seen gold stuck in a fairly narrow trading range, but now things are starting to become a lot clearer both fundamentally and technically, and as we will proceed to see, it's not a pretty picture.

On gold's latest 6-month chart, we can see the trading range that has built out since early December, and it is now becoming clear that the pattern that has formed is a Head-and-Shoulders top that also has the characteristics of a Double or Triple Top or a Symmetrical Triangle and right now it is on the point of backing off from the Right Shoulder peak of the pattern.

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Stock-Markets

Wednesday, February 07, 2024

Stock Market QE4EVER / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2024

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Not to forget the inflation mega-trend courtesy of rampant central bank money printing to monetize government debt coupled with the fake inflation indices where up until recently the Fed had succeeded in hoodwinking the masses that US inflation was just 1%. Instead at that time I warned it was more like 4%! Now it's more like 7%. Anyway the money printing binge now totals $8.8 trillion, up from $4 trillion at the start of 2020 and down from a a peak of $9.62 trillion in the so called Taper. We saw how the taper of 2019 went which at the time I warned would eventually resolve in the Fed Balance sheet DOUBLING. of course I was not expecting it to happen the very NEXT YEAR in 2020!

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InvestorEducation

Monday, February 05, 2024

Learn How to Accumulate and Distribute (Trim) Stock Positions to Maximise Profits - Investing 101 / InvestorEducation / Learning to Invest

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Most investors obsess over trying to buy THE bottom or try and sell THE top and thus they either end up holding nothing or are weak hands eager to sell everything on every rally. Here I teach a simple mechanisms that stops one from obsessing over tops and bottoms but instead goes with the flow by trimming into rallies (banking profits) and accumulating on the dips with little thought on trying to buy the bottom or sell the top.

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Interest-Rates

Monday, February 05, 2024

US Exponential Budget Deficit / Interest-Rates / US Debt

By: Nadeem_Walayat

The US Congress Budget Office report projects the US deficit as a percentage of GDP being on an explosive trend trajectory which is as a function of the US government borrowing money to spend on consumption resulting in an ever interest payments and debt mountain. Folks we are looking at an out of control debt spiral, as interest on debt continues to result in the printing of even more new debt.

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Commodities

Monday, February 05, 2024

Gold Tipping Points That Investors Shouldn’t Miss / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2024

By: P_Radomski_CFA

The situation in gold and gold stocks is not stagnant. Something shifted. And the implications are not minor.

A Moment of Realization

In 1993, Aerosmith released the song called “Amazing”. I really enjoyed it when it came out and some of the lyrics stuck in my mind. When I was reviewing the charts to prepare today’s analysis, I recalled a part of that song. I wasn’t sure why, as it’s been sometime when I was listening to it.

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Stock-Markets

Monday, February 05, 2024

Banking Crisis Quietly Brewing / Stock-Markets / Financial Crisis 2024

By: MoneyMetals

The Federal Reserve’s most recent policy statement came with a curious omission. Fed officials removed language from previous statements that proclaimed “the U.S. banking system is sound and resilient.”

That begs the question: Is the banking system no longer sound and resilient?

The Fed initially inserted the language in March 2023 following the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) – whose balance sheet obviously wasn’t sound or resilient.

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Stock-Markets

Sunday, February 04, 2024

Stock Market Major Market lows by Calendar Month / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2024

By: Nadeem_Walayat

This table proved remarkably accurate on it's own for pointing towards swing lows in March and October of 2023. Whilst June had a much lower probability and thus did not factor into my forecast expectations, despite at the time everyone wanting the market to make a low contrary to the road map which forecast a continuing uptrend into July.

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Commodities

Sunday, February 04, 2024

Gold Price’s Rally is Normal, but Is It Really Bullish? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2024

By: P_Radomski_CFA

Gold price rallied this week, and this got many heads turning. Rightfully so?

Let’s check the details and see what really happened.

Having said that, let’s take a look at gold’s rally.

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Stock-Markets

Sunday, February 04, 2024

More Problems in US Regional Banking System: Where There's Fire There's Smoke / Stock-Markets / Financial Crisis 2024

By: MoneyMetals

Where there’s fire, there’s smoke.

And there is definitely smoke in the U.S. banking system.

The mainstream consensus is that the Federal Reserve successfully raised interest rates, slayed the inflation monster, and did it without breaking anything in the economy. Most people seem convinced the central bank will continue guiding the economy to a soft landing, and soon, it can go back to delivering the easy money the economy depends on.

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Stock-Markets

Sunday, February 04, 2024

New Hints of US Election Year Market Interventions & Turmoil / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2024

By: MoneyMetals

After a sluggish January for precious metals, gold and silver markets saw a rally during the first day of February trading, only to see it reverse here today on the 2nd day of the month, after a strong U.S. jobs report, to continue the lackluster performance we’ve seen in early 2024.

On Thursday, gold gained $15 to settle at $2,064 per ounce. As of this Friday recording, the monetary metal has given back all of Thursday’s gain and then some and currently checks in at $2,045 but is still up a slight 0.8% for the week.

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Interest-Rates

Sunday, February 04, 2024

Watch Consumer Spending to Know When the Fed Will Cut Interest Rates / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates

By: Richard_Mills

The probability of interest rate cuts has many market participants pondering whether 2024 will bring a bull market for precious metals.

Gold has held up quite well despite the Fed’s tightening cycle, gaining 13% in 2023.

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Stock-Markets

Wednesday, January 31, 2024

STOCK MARKET DISCOUNTING EVENTS BIG PICTURE / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2024

By: Nadeem_Walayat

The name of the game is to -

a. STAY INVESTED

b. Capitalise on discounting events.

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Stock-Markets

Wednesday, January 31, 2024

Blue Skies Ahead As Stock Market Is Expected To Continue Much Higher / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2024

By: Avi_Gilburt

The difference between the perception of the stock market during October 2023, and today, is amazingly stark. At the time, almost everyone believed we were likely heading towards recession, and that the stock market was on its way down in a big way. Fast-forward to today, and GDP is stronger than most believed, consumer spending has been strong, the Fed is considering lowering rates, employment remains strong, and there seems to be further good news across many different sectors (along with the booming expectations based upon AI), with a number of major stocks hitting new all-time highs along with the overall stock markets.

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Stock-Markets

Wednesday, January 31, 2024

What the Stock Market "Fear Index" VIX May Be Signaling / Stock-Markets / Volatility

By: EWI

"Note the succession of higher closing low relative to higher highs in..."

First, just a quick basic fact about the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) -- also known as the stock market's "fear gauge": the lower the reading, the higher the complacency among investors. Higher readings indicate increased investor nervousness.

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Stock-Markets

Wednesday, January 31, 2024

Stock Market Trend Forecast Review / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2023

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Stock Market trend forecast mission accomplished, a rally to 4600 July 2023 to resolve in a correction to 4100 by late October 2023 followed by a rally into the end of the year.

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Companies

Sunday, January 28, 2024

The Roaring AI Tech Stocks 2020's / Companies / AI

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Just pause for a moment and take in the chart below that I have been iterating since June 2020, the message one should be receiving is that I expect this bull market to run for many more years, that I expected to target a return of X6 over some 7 years on where AI tech stocks stood June 2020, whilst my best guess 3.5 years ago was that we could see a major top during 2027, as long as run away valuations moderated from time to time delivering buying opps as they did during 2022 then I don't see why this should not still remain the big picture, thus the bull market that began March 2009 could continue to fulfill my original expectations for a 18 year bull market, where even the bear market that follows it will prove temporary as the bull market once more resumes during the 2030's.

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Commodities

Saturday, January 27, 2024

BP Oil Stock Bullish Formation and Its Consequences / Commodities / Oil Companies

By: Submissions

The combination of supports and a candlestick formation encouraged the bulls to fight.

How high could stock go?

Last week turned out to be a breakthrough for the bulls. They managed to maintain important support, which attracted buyers to the trading floor and resulted in further positive technical changes. How high can the bulls climb in the following days? You will find the answer to this question in the article below. Have a nice read.
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Commodities

Saturday, January 27, 2024

Gold:Silver Ratio Signals Silver on Sale / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2024

By: MoneyMetals

Silver is underpriced.

In other words, silver is on sale.

The current gold-to-silver ratio reveals this.

This ratio tells you how many ounces of silver it takes to buy one ounce of gold. Or to put it another way, the gold:silver ratio tells you the price of gold in silver.

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InvestorEducation

Saturday, January 27, 2024

Investing in the Stock Market is Like Boxing With Mike Tyson - Investor Psychology / InvestorEducation / Learning to Invest

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Most market participants soon learn that stock market investing isn't as easy as the clowns on the CNBC cartoon network sales pitches present it to be. Investing is like getting into a boxing ring with Mike Tyson, become arrogant and you will get knocked out in the first round. Whilst all those fund managers and analists on the financial cartoon networks never even fund set foot in the ring. Think of the stock market as Mike Tyson, it will knock you out! All one can do is to learn through experience to dodge as many as those punches as possible, that is the way to win in the stock market.

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