Saturday, June 15, 2024
Stock Market Trouble Lies Ahead. Are You Ready For It? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2024
By: EWI
By Steven Hochberg
Conversations about whether or not the Fed will cut interest rates any time soon continue to dominate the airwaves. But we are looking elsewhere for signs about where markets and the economy are headed.
Having observed market behavior for 45 years, we've got a lot of historical precedents to lean on. The emerging picture suggests that investors not paying attention may be caught unprepared for an impending change.
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Saturday, June 08, 2024
Stock Market Investor Sentiment / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2024
By: Nadeem_Walayat
In a very similar pattern to the US Dollar, we had negative divergence in the bull bear % spread going into the end March S&P top which at 48 does not have far to go before it enters into an over sold state below 30, again suggesting that most of the decline is behind us. Remember we are in a bull market so bearish readings are going to be infrequent and short lived.
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Saturday, June 08, 2024
S&P 494 Stocks Then & Now / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2024
By: Submissions
One of the extraordinary features of today’s equity market is the extreme concentration of S&P 500 in a handful of names. Most readers know that stocks like Nvidia and Microsoft, the “AI plays”, essentially drive the performance of the S&P 500 and Nasdaq. We were interested in seeing the degree of market concentration at the last bubble peak in 2000. Historically, narrow market leadership portends future weakness in prices. So we did some quantitative work and put together some interesting charts updating our “S&P 495” chart series. We added one name, Nvidia, to create the Super 6 (Apple, Microsoft, Nvidia, Google, Amazon, and Meta), and compared these six to the remaining 494 stocks, the S&P 494.
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Saturday, June 08, 2024
As Stocks Bears Begin To Hibernate, It's Now Time To Worry About A Bear Market / Stock-Markets / Stocks Bear Market
By: Avi_Gilburt
For those who have followed my stock market analysis through the years, you would likely remember that, many years ago, I set a minimum long-term target for the SPX at 5350, with potential to rally as high as 6000SPX. In fact, many of you may also remember my expectation for a 30% correction, which I was publishing in late 2019 and early 2020, well before anyone even heard the word Covid. In fact, I even publicly suggested a short trade on EEM (because it had the best low risk, high probability set up of the index charts I was tracking at the time) back in February of 2020. And, then as the SPX dropped down to our long-term target in the 2200SPX region, I outlined my expectation for the market to bottom and begin a rally taking us north of 4000SPX. Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, June 08, 2024
Gold, Silver and Crypto | How Charts Look Before US Dollar Meltdown / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2024
By: Hubert_Moolman
The US dollar is on the brink of a major meltdown. This is apparent based on fundamental and technical analysis. Over the last 5 years, the US dollar has sustained some major damage through policy without losing much value against other fiat currencies.
In other words, the market has not yet taken into account the true (debased) state of the US dollar, but it will soon. Since the US dollar is probably the most significant currency in the world, its meltdown will be devastating for many.
Therefore, it is imperative to find a safe haven during a US dollar meltdown. This is a monetary crisis and should preferably be addressed with monetary alternatives. Gold and silver are the premier monetary assets, so they should be an obvious choice.
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Saturday, June 08, 2024
Gold & Silver Get Slammed on Positive Economic Reports / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2024
By: MoneyMetals
Later on in today’s program, we have an important update on Money Metals’ efforts to enact pro-sound money laws across America. Six bills have become law this year, making 2024 the most successful year for our sound money efforts so far. So, stick around for an interview with our own Jp Cortez, coming up after this week’s market update.
Well, gold has been the headline performer in the first half the year – breaking records and commanding attention. But in the second half of 2024, silver may be set to steal the show.
Silver has been quietly outperforming gold since February. Silver prices surged to an 11-year high last month.
The junior monetary metal still has a long way to go in order to reach a new all-time high above $49 an ounce. Even if it doesn’t achieve that feat in 2024, it could still set a new record for a year-end closing price.
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Saturday, June 08, 2024
Gold Summer Doldrums / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2024
By: Zeal_LLC
Gold, silver, and their miners’ stocks suffer their weakest seasonals of the year in early summers. With traders’ attention normally diverted to vacations and summer fun, interest in and demand for precious metals usually wane. Without outsized investment demand, gold tends to drift sideways to lower dragging silver and miners’ stocks with it. Long feared as the summer doldrums, they can offer good buying opportunities.
This doldrums term is very apt for gold’s traditional summer predicament. It describes a zone surrounding the equator in the world’s oceans. There hot air is constantly rising, spawning long-lived low-pressure areas. They are often calm, with little prevailing winds. History is full of accounts of sailing ships getting trapped in this zone for days or weeks, unable to make headway. The doldrums were murder on ships’ morale.
Crews had no idea when the winds would pick up again, while they continued burning through their limited stores of food and drink. Without moving air, the stifling heat and humidity were suffocating on those ships long before air conditioning. Misery and boredom grew extreme, leading to fights breaking out and occasional mutinies. Being trapped in the doldrums was viewed with dread, it was a very trying experience.
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Friday, June 07, 2024
S&P USD Correction / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2024
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The S&P trend tends to be inversely correlated to the USD trend as this inverted chart of the USD illustrates, where what the stock market seeks is either a dollar trending higher or a stable dollar within a range.
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Friday, June 07, 2024
Israel's Smoke and Mirrors Fake War on Gaza / Politics / Israel
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The smoke in mirrors drama in the middle east delivers an opportunity in target stocks Friday following Iran falling face first into the Fourth Reich's (FR) trap, where the fatal mistake was the failed retaliation to the FR blowing up the Iranian Embassy that allowed the FR to target Iranian nuclear facilities in respect of which Iran had to make the choice to either further be played like puppets on a string or pretend that the Israeli attack failed to do any damage, Intelligently Iran chose the later and thus threw up a smoke screen of having successfully shot down a couple of Israeli drones resulting in no damage on the ground, despite the reality that Iran's nuclear facilities will have got hit hard with bunker busting cruise missiles, where further escalation would have suck Iran deeper into an unwinnable conflict that clearly Iran does not have the stomach for or capability for. Lets not forget that the Fourth Reich has murdered over 40.000 Palestinian civilians in implementation of Operation Hannibal, about half of whom are children.
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Friday, June 07, 2024
US Banking Crisis 2024 That No One Is Paying Attention To / Stock-Markets / Financial Crisis 2024
By: Avi_Gilburt
Credit card and auto loans are increasing the risk on bank balance sheets.
The largest holders of these loans include JP Morgan, Citibank, and Capital One.
You have to engage in due diligence regarding the banks that house your hard-earned money to make sure you're not caught during a banking crisis.
A month ago, we published an article on consumer debt, which is becoming a huge issue for the banks from a credit quality perspective, as both credit cards and auto loans have posted sharp increases in delinquency ratios.
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Friday, June 07, 2024
The Fed Leads and the Market Follows? It's a Big Fat MYTH / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates
By: EWI
By Murray Gunn | Head of Global Research, Elliott Wave International
We help investors by analyzing what really drives the markets. Along the way, we often uncover a market myth, something most investors believe moves the markets, but really doesn't.
I want to show you one of the biggest market myths in existence. It will help you understand what the Fed can and cannot do.
The one thing the Federal Reserve can do is control the money supply. The physical printing of dollars, or the digital creation of reserves, is in its gift. The natural state of affairs is for the money supply to grow at a rate of around 5% per annum.
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Friday, June 07, 2024
How Much Gold Is There In the World? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2024
By: MoneyMetals
The quick answer is not much - at least not relatively speaking.
According to the World Gold Council, as of the end of 2023, around 212,582 tons of gold have been mined throughout history. About two-thirds of that amount was dug out of the ground since 1950.
That sounds like a lot of gold, but if you melted down every ounce of gold ever mined and formed it into one block, it would only measure 73 feet on each side.
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Friday, June 07, 2024
Is There a Financial Crisis Bubbling Under the Surface? / Politics / Financial Crisis 2024
By: MoneyMetals
When the Federal Reserve started raising rates, it precipitated a financial crisis. The central bank managed to paper over the problem with a bailout program, but the crisis continues to bubble and percolate under the surface.
According to the latest data from the FDIC, the U.S. banking system is sitting on $517 billion in unrealized losses due to deteriorating bond portfolios.
Unrealized losses triggered the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank, Signature Bank, and First Republic Bank in 2023.
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Friday, May 31, 2024
Bitcoin Trend Forecast, Crypto's Exit Strategy / Currencies / Bitcoin
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Dear Reader
This article is part 2 of 2 of my recent extensive analysis - Stock Market, Interest Rates, Crypto's and the Inflation Red Pill which was first made available to patrons who support my work. So for immediate first access to ALL of my analysis and trend forecasts then do consider becoming a Patron by supporting my work for just $7 per month, lock it in now at $7 before next rises to $10 per month for new sign-ups. https://www.patreon.com/Nadeem_Walayat.
Contents
Stock Market Trend Forecast
Swings Analysis
AI Stocks Portfolio
TESLA
Why US Interest Rates are a Nothing Burger
Stocks Bull Market Smoking Gun
Time to take the RED Pill
Crypto Correction
Bitcoin Trend Forecast
Bull Market Tops
Crypto's Exit Strategy
Coinbase MSTR 2.0
So much for the Rise of China Narrative
Friday, May 31, 2024
Zimbabwe Officials Already Looking to Inflate New Gold-Backed Currency / Currencies / Fiat Currency
By: MoneyMetals
Last month, Zimbabwe officials introduced a gold-backed currency in an effort to stabilize the country’s economy.
At the time, I warned that a gold-backed currency would be a great step, but that it wasn’t going to solve Zimbabwe’s problems unless the government changed its ways.
So far, things don’t look good.
Government officials are already pushing miners in the African nation to produce more gold. This would allow the government to expand the money supply.
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Friday, May 31, 2024
India Silver Imports Have Already Topped 2023 Total / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2024
By: MoneyMetals
India imported more silver through the first four months of 2024 than it did in the entirety of last year.
Indian silver imports totaled 4,172 tons of silver from January through April. That compares with 455 tons during the same period in 2023.
India imported 3,625 tons of silver last year.
India ranks as the world's number one silver consumer.
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Friday, May 31, 2024
Gold Has Done Its Job – Isn’t That Enough? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2024
By: Kelsey_Williams
GOLD HAS DONE ITS JOB
For most of us who understand what gold is (and, what it isn’t), gold continues to perform as reasonably expected. Rather, its price continues to reflect the ongoing loss of purchasing power in the U.S. dollar. Gold, itself, isn’t doing anything at all. (see Not About Gold; All About The Dollar)
Short term nominal profits notwithstanding, gold’s value is the same as it is always. Gold is real money and its value is in its use as money. Gold is a medium of exchange, a measure of value, and a long-term store of value.
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Friday, May 31, 2024
Gold Stocks Catching Up / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2024
By: Zeal_LLC
After getting off to a slow start in this upleg, gold miners’ stocks are beginning to catch up with their metal. Gold stocks lagged dreadfully early on, but are increasingly outperforming in gold’s remarkable breakout surge of recent months. These mounting gold-stock gains are boosting bullish sentiment, attracting in more traders accelerating the upside. This virtuous circle of capital inflows still has a long way to run.
If gold stocks can’t leverage gold’s gains, they aren’t worth owning. While miners have high potential to soar with their metal, they bear big additional risks. Those include all kinds of operational, geological, regulatory, and geopolitical challenges and problems. And they are all heaped on top of the biggest risk of all, gold price trends! Yet that’s the only risk in gold bullion, so miners’ stocks really need to outperform.
If they don’t, speculators and investors are much better off sticking to gold itself. Historically the leading GDX gold-stock ETF has amplified material gold moves by 2x to 3x. This range’s lower end is probably the minimum acceptable to compensate traders for gold stocks’ big additional risks. And the upper end is where this high-flying sector can quickly multiply wealth. Unfortunately much of gold’s latest upleg saw neither.
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Tuesday, May 28, 2024
Time to take the RED Pill / Personal_Finance / How to Guides
By: Nadeem_Walayat
INFLATION IS HOW WE BEAT THE SYSTEM! BY BEING INVESTED IN ASSETS THAT INFLATE FASTER THAN THE RATE OF GOVERNMENT STEALTH INFLATION THEFT LOSS OF PURCHASING POWER OF FIAT.
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Tuesday, May 28, 2024
US Economy Slowing Slipping into Recession, But Not There Yet / Economics / Recession 2024
By: Michael_Pento
The recent spate of economic data continues to point to a weakening economy, but one that is not yet precipitously falling into recession.
The Philly Fed Index was released late last week. The diffusion index for current general activity declined 11 points to 4.5 in May. The index for new orders declined from 12.2 to -7.9, its first negative reading since February, and the shipments index fell from 19.1 to -1.2, its first negative reading since January. We also had US industrial production data released this week. It was flat in April from the previous month, while factory output fell by 0.3%.