Stock Market Mainstream Financial Media Narratives vs Reality
Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2024 Aug 12, 2024 - 06:35 PM GMTBy: Nadeem_Walayat
So much for the "Sell in May and go Away" narrative that gets peddled out each year. Near term the S&P has basically traded sideways for the past 3 weeks nevertheless the stock market has delivered opportunities galore to both trim and accumulate in key target stocks such as buying the dips in ADSK, DIOD, and GPN and selling the rips in TSM, Qualcom and WDC, whilst seeking to capitalise on opportunities presented by the plunge in cloud computing stocks such as CRM, VEEV, Adobe, and SNOW of which SNOW is the bigger gamble of the bunch.
Current state of the stock market is that the S&P put in a new all time high of 5373, which is what tends to happen during a bull market as I often state that the risk is to the upside.
One of the problems is that folk tend to focus on the noisy and erratic short-term price action when if they zoomed out they will get a much clearer picture of the bull markets trend, that and the price moves slowly over days and weeks rather than minutes and hours.
Higher highs and higher lows all the way off of the October 2022 low, one could not ask for an easier pattern than that! Nothing complicated hence why I often voice that the risks are to the upside and not to get ones knickers in a twist during corrections fearing something much deeper is around the corner because so far the bull market where the S&P is concerned has been a relatively easy ride. This suggests when the market next corrects the low should be above the last swing low of 4955 and likely a lot higher than that. Personally I don't even look at the S&P on a day to day basis as my focus is looking for those opps to trim (crystallise profits) and the deep draw down buying opps so as to maintain invested exposure at around 80%.
The primary focus of this article is to conclude in a detailed trend forecast for US house prices for at least 2 full years as the final concluding part of a housing series -
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Furthermore the US housing market is very complex given it's depth and breadth, i.e. it's as good as looking at 50 nations in one package so just as there are nations that are dying so it there will be cities and states that are dying, therefore bare in mind that this article concludes in a forecast for the Case Shiller 10 City Index that comprises Boston, Chicago, Denver, Las Vegas, Los Angeles, Miami, New York, San Diego, San Francisco, and Washington, DC, all of which are major cities and thus a natural destination for internal and external migration over the pull factor of 2nd and 3rd tier US cities.
This article is an excerpt from extensive analysis US Housing Market Analysis, House Prices Trend Forecast 2024 to 2026 that was first made available to patrons who support my work. So for immediate first access to ALL of my analysis and trend forecasts then do consider becoming a Patron by supporting my work for just $7 per month, lock it in now at $7 before next rises to $10 per month for new sign-ups. https://www.patreon.com/Nadeem_Walayat.
CONTENTS
Stock Market Trend Forecast
US Stock Market vs M2 Money Supply
AI Stocks Portfolio
Nvidia 10 for 1 Stock Split
AI Computers Hype
2024 - AI Equals Loss of Agency
Why Alien Intelligence Cannot Predict the Future
Consequences of AI
UBI - Universal Billionaire Income
GLOBAL WARMING Housing Market Consequences Right Now
RECESSION When Yield Curve Uninverts
Global Debt Bubble.
IMMIGRATION DRIVES HOUSE PRICES HIGHER
US Housing Market Free Equity
US FIXED MORTGAGES LIMITING SUPPLY
HOA Nightmare
Florida Hurricanes
Rentals Crisis
Who is Buying All the Houses?
Commercial Property Capitulation
US House Prices Momentum
US House Prices Trend Forecast
US Housing Market Stocks
UK General Election - 4th July 2024
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By Nadeem Walayat
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Nadeem Walayat has over 30 years experience of trading derivatives, portfolio management and analysing the financial markets, including one of few who both anticipated and Beat the 1987 Crash. Nadeem's forward looking analysis focuses on UK inflation, economy, interest rates and housing market. He is the author of five ebook's in the The Inflation Mega-Trend and Stocks Stealth Bull Market series that can be downloaded for Free.
Nadeem is the Editor of The Market Oracle, a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication that presents in-depth analysis from over 1000 experienced analysts on a range of views of the probable direction of the financial markets, thus enabling our readers to arrive at an informed opinion on future market direction. http://www.marketoracle.co.uk
Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any trading losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors before engaging in any trading activities.
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