AI Tech Stocks Portfolio
Companies / AI Aug 15, 2024 - 10:57 PM GMTBy: Nadeem_Walayat
Current state of portfolio is 79.4% invested, 20.6% cash, though 9.76% is in crypto's which is meant to be temporary, i.e. I plan to exit virtually all of my crypto positions during the crypto bull market where the key risk is that it ends a lot earlier than expected, so effective percent invested in stocks is 70%.
All of the primaries and secondaries have delivered huge profits except Tesla and Apple. Even crappy IBM has delivered on its spike to $200 prompting heavy trimming, the big surprise was Micron, I was not expecting $130+! As for sleepers, Samsung has also delivered whilst Intel continues to snooze. All whilst most investors have a large chunk of cash parked in money market accounts because they listened to clown Cramer and the CNBC cartoon network so they are missing out on one of the greatest bull markets in history, what else can you call Nvidia 10xing in 18 months!
I always look at valuations where column V comes in handy which tells one how cheap or expensive a stock is relative to it's past PE range. On that basis Nvidia is relatively cheap as are Google and Tesla. The rest of the AI stocks are much harder buys at current valuations.
Further a field I have been adding to GPN, GFS, BIDU, JBL, FCX, SLB, as opportunities present themselves.
AI stocks portfolio - https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1h9WcWdB4jw2yYlOEinoigRGtO-Z8MIkMo87Iyn4qHyY/edit?usp=sharing
The bottom line is buy the dips in target stocks as opportunities materialise.
The real secret to successful investing is to buy the pain trade, right now the pain trade is TESLA! This is how I tend to buy heavy near market bottoms because whilst most investors are vomiting out of their positions, can't take the pain of draw downs, I tend to buy even more which is VERY PAINFUL! I.e. buying more META at $92 was EXTREMELY PAINFUL given the draw down at that time where a plethora of comments were seeking reassurance that META was not FINISHED, the problem is at the bottom ALL OF THE NEWS IS BAD! So all I can do is show you what I am doing and it is up to you to make up your own minds what to do with your money because there is no magic indicator other than experience of having done it many times before. Now META is my biggest winner in terms of delivering cold hard cash and everyone's looking back and wish they had bought more at $100, but at the time they would likely be SELLING OUT of META on the tiniest of rally off the low, just as is likely the case today with Tesla, "if only Tesla gets to $200 then I can exit this painful stock" is what's going through many Tesla investors mind, This is why most investors make very little if anything investing because they can't take the PAIN! Learn to embrace the PAIN and then you will WIN BIG!
Nvidia 10 for 1 Stock Split
Nvidia has delivered huge profits upto about $400 when I sold all of my shares, since which it has been tough going, I bought upto about 7% during its recently dip to $730 only to trim most on it's subsequent rally to $1250. Clearly the price action of this stock is such that I am unable to stay invested given that it is so abnormal. As I often write Nvidia is not a normal stock, Nvidia is AI! Google was meant to be what Nvidia is, but whilst still a great stock it clearly is no Nvidia!
Nvidia getting to $1250 is NOT unexpected, after all I mentioned way back at around $800 that I expect Nvidia to double to $1600, but not in a few weeks! So whilst I want to accumulate a sizeable position in Nvidia the stock price behaviour is such vs my investing style that I am unable to do so, i.e. I trim fomo rallies and buy market panics. Where what I seek in the likes of Nvidia is a deviation from it's high which we got down to about $730 which saw my position 7x from 1% to 7%, current 3%.
I recall back in October 2022 when I was buying Nvidia at $120 and under many were commenting that they would wait for $90 down to $50, at that time I managed to accumulate to about 65% invested. So now the stock is back at $120 following it's stock split :)
Nvidia's metrics are still very strong at EGFS +38%, +65%, but the direction of travel is -26% which suggests Nvidia stock is likely to consolidate, i.e. I don't think this rally is going to continue, so the $125 high should hold for a while. I expect Nvidia to carve out a new consolidation range that could extend back down to below $100 for a 25%+ deviation from it's high, hence an opp to accumulate.
Bottom line Nvidia is at the core of AI, thus it is highly probable that Nvidia will at least double once more from current $120 to $240.However I would not buy at current levels instead seek a deviation from the high where a correction to sub $100 looks probable for at least a 25% deviation from it's $125 high. And it does not really matter if I never manage to build a significant position in Nvidia as there are plenty of stocks out there to build positions in, you don't always get what you want.
This article is an excerpt from extensive analysis US Housing Market Analysis, House Prices Trend Forecast 2024 to 2026 that was first made available to patrons who support my work. So for immediate first access to ALL of my analysis and trend forecasts then do consider becoming a Patron by supporting my work for just $7 per month, lock it in now at $7 before next rises to $10 per month for new sign-ups. https://www.patreon.com/Nadeem_Walayat.
CONTENTS
Stock Market Trend Forecast
US Stock Market vs M2 Money Supply
AI Stocks Portfolio
Nvidia 10 for 1 Stock Split
AI Computers Hype
2024 - AI Equals Loss of Agency
Why Alien Intelligence Cannot Predict the Future
Consequences of AI
UBI - Universal Billionaire Income
GLOBAL WARMING Housing Market Consequences Right Now
RECESSION When Yield Curve Uninverts
Global Debt Bubble.
IMMIGRATION DRIVES HOUSE PRICES HIGHER
US Housing Market Free Equity
US FIXED MORTGAGES LIMITING SUPPLY
HOA Nightmare
Florida Hurricanes
Rentals Crisis
Who is Buying All the Houses?
Commercial Property Capitulation
US House Prices Momentum
US House Prices Trend Forecast
US Housing Market Stocks
UK General Election - 4th July 2024
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By Nadeem Walayat
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Nadeem Walayat has over 30 years experience of trading derivatives, portfolio management and analysing the financial markets, including one of few who both anticipated and Beat the 1987 Crash. Nadeem's forward looking analysis focuses on UK inflation, economy, interest rates and housing market. He is the author of five ebook's in the The Inflation Mega-Trend and Stocks Stealth Bull Market series that can be downloaded for Free.
Nadeem is the Editor of The Market Oracle, a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication that presents in-depth analysis from over 1000 experienced analysts on a range of views of the probable direction of the financial markets, thus enabling our readers to arrive at an informed opinion on future market direction. http://www.marketoracle.co.uk
Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any trading losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors before engaging in any trading activities.
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