Tuesday, August 13, 2024
Are we Slipping into a Recession? / Economics / Recession 2024
By: Stephen_McBride
That’s the question on every investor’s mind right now. Because recessions are bad for stocks.
In today’s Jolt, I’ll walk you through what the three most accurate recession indicators are telling us… and suggest what to do about it.
Let’s get after it.
Monday, August 12, 2024
Stock Market Mainstream Financial Media Narratives vs Reality / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2024
By: Nadeem_Walayat
So much for the "Sell in May and go Away" narrative that gets peddled out each year. Near term the S&P has basically traded sideways for the past 3 weeks nevertheless the stock market has delivered opportunities galore to both trim and accumulate in key target stocks such as buying the dips in ADSK, DIOD, and GPN and selling the rips in TSM, Qualcom and WDC, whilst seeking to capitalise on opportunities presented by the plunge in cloud computing stocks such as CRM, VEEV, Adobe, and SNOW of which SNOW is the bigger gamble of the bunch.
Current state of the stock market is that the S&P put in a new all time high of 5373, which is what tends to happen during a bull market as I often state that the risk is to the upside.
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Monday, August 12, 2024
Gold Supply Falling Short of Market Demand / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2024
By: Richard_Mills
It’s been a volatile week in the markets.
On Monday, Aug. 5, the Dow Jones Industrial Average lost more than 1,000 points, and the S&P 500 dropped 3%, resulting in the worst day for both indexes since September 2022.
The sell-off was blamed on factors ranging from worries about the economy and the slow response from the Federal Reserve, regarding interest rate cuts, to the unwind of a popular global currency trade and concerns over corporate earnings, CNBC said.
(The “carry trade” involves borrowing in cheap currencies such as the Japanese yen and buying higher-yielding currencies. It has helped to supply markets with liquidity.)
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Monday, August 12, 2024
Gold’s Minsky Moment / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2022
By: Richard_Mills
A “Minsky Moment” refers to a point in time when a period of bullish speculation leads to a spectacular market crash.
Named after economist Hyman Minsky, the theory centers around the inherent instability of stock markets.
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Monday, August 12, 2024
The Future of Mankind - You are Being Sold a Lie! / Politics / Social Issues
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Dear Reader
Have you managed to capitalise on the stock market correction as many patrons have in key target AI tech stocks?
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Monday, August 12, 2024
Stock Market Rollercoaster: Analyzing the Recent Meltdown and Recovery / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2024
By: MoneyMetals
The financial landscape experienced a seismic shift last week, reminiscent of hitting rumble strips on the interstate—jerking investors awake to the underlying economic dangers.
Monday’s drastic stock market selloff, triggered by various catalysts, left investors reeling, though the panic seemed to abate by week's end. But is everything truly back to normal, or was this a premonition of more significant issues to come?
Monday, August 12, 2024
Stocks Rebounded: What’s Next? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2024
By: Paul_Rejczak
Tuesday's trading session was mixed; stock prices bounced, but they closed well below the daily highs. The S&P 500 reached a local high of 5,312.34 but closed more than 70 points below that level, gaining 'just' 1.04%. Overnight, calming words from the Bank of Japan were released, and this morning, the S&P 500 is likely to open 1.0% higher in another attempt to retrace more of its recent sell-off.
Before the current turmoil, investor sentiment had slightly improved last week, as indicated by the last Wednesday's AAII Investor Sentiment Survey, which showed that 44.9% of individual investors are bullish, while only 25.2% of them are bearish – down from 31.7% last week.
Saturday, August 10, 2024
AI Will Turn Everyone Into Gamblers! The Greatest Wealth Transfer In History is Coming.. Part 1/2 / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2024
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Dear Reader
Have you managed to capitalise on the stock market correction as many patrons have in key target AI tech stocks?
Saturday, August 10, 2024
Plunging Stocks, Gold Miners, and Lucrative Implications / Stock-Markets / Gold & Silver Stocks 2024
By: P_Radomski_CFA
The stock markets around the world are sliding, and so does bitcoin – just as I warned.
Miners invalidated their tiny breakout, closed below the July low on Friday, and they are poised to slide even more.
That’s just the beginning.
Let’s start with a quote from my Friday’s Gold Trading Alert:
Stocks might have had their “oops” moment this week. (…)
Saturday, August 10, 2024
The #1 Takeaway from Big Tech Stocks Earnings / Companies / Earnings
By: Stephen_McBride
It’s a jam-packed Jolt on artificial intelligence (AI) today… plus, a well-deserved dunk on The New York Times.
Let’s get after it…
- America spent $600 billion (in today’s dollars) building its highway system.
Big tech companies will spend more money constructing AI data centers in the next four years.
It’s the biggest infrastructure buildout ever, and it’s not even close.
Saturday, August 10, 2024
Stock Market Sentiment Speaks: Reasons For A CRASH / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2024
By: Avi_Gilburt
Recently, we have seen a 10% drop in the S&P500. And, there is no shortage of reasons that the financial media pundits have ascribed to that decline. While many point to the bad jobs data, we have to at least be honest in recognizing that the market began this decline well before those poor jobs numbers were announced. So, we can easily dismiss that superficial reason.
But, the most common reason for the market decline to which the pundits point was the unwinding of the yen carry trade. In fact, I counted at least 3 articles on Seeking Alpha alone with that reason in their title, with at least another 5 or 6 proffering that reason within the heart of their articles.
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Saturday, August 10, 2024
Optimal Gold Stocks Macro Evolving / Commodities / Gold & Silver Stocks 2024
By: Gary_Tanashian
The macro setup for gold stocks is evolving into something that will surprise many after decades of poor fundamentals
I don’t make a habit of pumping the most frustrating stock sector on the planet just for the sake of it. I have made a habit of discussing why, since 2003, the macro market backdrop has been adversarial to gold stocks much more often than not. By extension, internal indicators like the HUI/Gold Ratio have rightly been long-term bearish.
As you can see, the HUI/Gold ratio made a top in 2003 and has been down and flat ever since. Personally, I believe it made a double bottom earlier this year. I don’t believe that because I want to (even though I do want to). I believe it because of macro developments currently in play.
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Saturday, August 10, 2024
Financial Markets Attempting To Find Its Footing / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2024
By: The_Gold_Report
USD dollar index futures are higher (+0.24%) this morning, and bond yields are also higher.
Gold (+0.49%) and silver (+0.08%) are rallying a tad, while copper and oil are flat.
Stock futures are rallying, with risk barometer Bitcoin up 1.39%.
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Saturday, August 10, 2024
Big US Stocks Fundamentals / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2024
By: Zeal_LLC
The big US stocks dominating markets and investors’ portfolios just reported a truly-spectacular quarter. Their collective revenues neared record levels, driving their highest earnings ever witnessed. Yet despite all that, risks abound. The US stock markets have never been more concentrated, relying on fewer and fewer companies. Valuations remain deep into dangerous bubble territory, and market fragility signs are mounting.
The flagship US S&P 500 stock index has enjoyed a banner 2024, blasting up 18.8% year-to-date in mid-July! Traders’ fascination with mega-cap techs involved in artificial intelligence fueled fully 38 new record-high closes this year, over 1/4th of all trading days. The resulting greed and euphoria have left the SPX chronically- and extremely-overbought, mostly stretching far above its baseline 200-day moving average.
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Saturday, August 10, 2024
U.S. Trilogy: debt-based dollar and economy, stablecoin digital currency, BRICS new world. / Stock-Markets / Global Financial System
By: Raymond_Matison
Debt-based dollar and economy
Over a century ago the United States Congress approved a deceitfully promoted Federal Reserve Central Bank, which then established a new debt-based monetary system. Its concept of creating and introducing ever more currency into a country which had little debt, initially worked well to create economic stimulus at the time, and currency available to participate in WWI and WWII. That stimulus also bought forth the wild market speculation of the 1920s, the necessary precursor for tightening of credit and the Great Depression. Outlawing citizen ownership of real money (Constitutionally designated as gold and silver coins) in 1934, it required citizens to turn in their gold coins to banks, which were complicit with government to steal money from citizens as gold was then revalued by from $20.63 to $35.00 an ounce.
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Thursday, July 04, 2024
Stocks Correct into Bitcoin Happy Thanks Halving - Earnings Season Buying Opps / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2024
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Dear Reader
It's 4th July 2024 Britains Independance Day from Clown Sunak.
The polls will be opening at 7am today when the British electorate get to give their damning verdict on what will likely be one of the worst governments in British history led by a Clown, Rishi Sunak, a fool who was never fit to be an MP let alone a PM. Not for much longer as this fool will be out of No 10 within 24 hours, the writing is on the wall, Liebour is heading for a landslide election victory of well over 400 seats as the Tories die an electoral death.
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Thursday, July 04, 2024
24 Hours Until Clown Rishi Sunak is Booted Out of Number 10 - UK General Election 2024 / ElectionOracle / UK General Election
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The polls will soon open at 7am today when the British electorate get to give their damning verdict on what will likely be one of the worst governments in British history led by a Clown, Rishi Sunak, a fool who was never fit to be an MP let alone a PM. Not for much longer as this fool will be out of No 10 within 24 hours, the writing is on the wall, Liebour is heading for a landslide election victory of well over 400 seats as the Tories die an electoral death.
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Monday, July 01, 2024
Clown Rishi Delivers Tory Election Bloodbath, Labour 400+ Seat Landslide / ElectionOracle / UK General Election
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Mentally soft as a sponge Richi Sunak clearly cannot take the pain of being PM any more even though his job is mostly about reading cue cards handed to him by his handlers, nevertheless Richi has thrown in the towel and declared he does not want to do it for another 6 months, he's had his fun playing at being PM and so announced a General Election for the 4th of July, Richi's Independence Day! Can you imagine that this clown has been PM for 575 days! They used to call John Major a dull boring grey man in a grey suit, but this guy Richi has done a worse job than if Mr Bean had been PM! I do not recall anything that this fool has done over the past 575 days as PM! He was never fit to be an MP let alone PM, his primary focus has always been to get to a net worth of £1 billion! Which is fine and dandy but why the hell make the British people suffer for near 2 years in the process? The Tories deserve to DIE an electoral death, the party needs to undergo a major PURGE!
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Sunday, June 30, 2024
Bitcoin Happy Thanks Halving - Crypto's Exist Strategy / Currencies / Bitcoin
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Bitcoin on cue trended lower into halving setting a new swing low on Friday at $59.6k before bouncing post halving, currently trading at £65k. Overall picture remains for BTC in a trading range of $72k to $60k pending a breakout higher probably timed with when the dollar turns lower.
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Sunday, June 30, 2024
Is a China-Taiwan Conflict Likely? Watch the Region's Stock Market Indexes / Stock-Markets / Chinese Stock Market
By: EWI
By Mark Galasiewski | Elliott Wave International
The U.S. government in early May sanctioned 300 Chinese entities for supplying machine tools and parts to Russia for its war against Ukraine, while in mid-May Russian president Vladimir Putin made a two-day visit to China. In turn I found myself thinking about how tensions between China and the United States could lead to open conflict, specifically over Taiwan.
The likelihood of conflict depends in part on the region's social mood, as reflected in Asia's stock market indexes. When social mood is negative, countries are more likely to behave aggressively.
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