Friday, September 23, 2016
Hedonics, Food, and Pluralistic Ignorance / Economics / Inflation
By: Dr_Jeff_Lewis
Inflation is alive and well – despite what we hear from the mainstream. Due to pluralistic ignorance, it persists much longer than anyone would have ever predicted.
From Wikipedia:
Pluralistic ignorance
“In social psychology, pluralistic ignorance is a situation in which a majority of group members privately reject a norm, but incorrectly assume that most others accept it, and therefore go along with it.[1] This is also described as ‘no one believes, but everyone thinks that everyone believes’.”
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Friday, September 23, 2016
Possible Stock Market Aggressive Sell for the Brave / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016
By: Anthony_Cherniawski
SPX made its high at 10:35 am. Although it has not gone higher, it has only taken baby steps lower, so it may not be “out of the woods,” yet. As noted earlier, it has achieved at least one Wave relationship, but has not filled the gap.
I cannot give an “all clear” for conservative investors, since the SPX has not declined back beneath its 50-day Moving Average and the NYSE Hi-Lo Index went considerably higher today. However, those who are aggressive may consider at least a partial position today.
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Thursday, September 22, 2016
Germany Has No Power to Solve the European Crisis / Politics / Eurozone Debt Crisis
By: John_Mauldin
BY LILI BAYER : Germany faces a growing number of crises, both at home and abroad. But it has limited power to address them. The country needs stability in Ukraine. It wants to influence Russia. And Germany needs to deal with the influx of refugees from Turkey. This requires an agreement with that country.
Recently, the German leadership met with officials in Europe and abroad to address these crises. On Sept. 15, the foreign ministers of Germany and France toured Ukraine's war-torn east. In August, the German foreign minister went to Moscow to discuss the problems in Ukraine and Syria.
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Thursday, September 22, 2016
The Last Time We Saw This Was Before World War II / Politics / GeoPolitics
By: John_Mauldin
BY GEORGE FRIEDMAN : Europe and Asia, taken together, are the heart of humanity. That’s where 5 billion out of the 7 billion people in the world live. When instability comes to this part of the world, it shakes humanity.
That’s why the geopolitical pattern developing in Eurasia is so ominous. It is like a hurricane—absorbing huge amounts of energy from the ocean, using that energy to build a vast, integrated structure, and then destroying whatever it touches.
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Thursday, September 22, 2016
France and Germany Call to TTIP End Trade Talks with the US / Politics / Global Economy
By: John_Mauldin
BY ANTONIA COLIBASANU : The Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP) negotiations have failed. The TTIP is the trade agreement between the European Union (EU) and the United States. German Economic Affairs Minister Sigmar Gabriel and French Foreign Trade Minister Matthias Fekl have both called for an end to talks.
This failure confirms our prediction that the EU's power is decaying. Moreover, this turn of events accents the division between Western and Eastern Europe.
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Thursday, September 22, 2016
The Implications of the Italian Banking Crisis Could Be Disastrous / Stock-Markets / Credit Crisis 2016
By: John_Mauldin
BY GEORGE FRIEDMAN : The current Italian banking crisis carries with it the possibility of bank failures. The consequences of these failures pyramid the crisis because of European Union regulations. Essentially, the position of the European Union is that the European Central Bank (ECB) and the central banks of member countries cannot bail out failing banks by recapitalizing them—in other words, injecting money to keep them solvent.
EU regulations go so far as to prohibit Italy from using its state funds to shield investors and shareholders of banks from losses, unless there is risk of “very extraordinary” systemic stress. Rather, the EU has adopted a bail-in strategy.
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Thursday, September 22, 2016
Here’s How the EU’s Crisis Is Tearing NATO Apart / Politics / European Union
By: John_Mauldin
BY KAMRAN BOKHARI : NATO has been searching for relevance for a generation. Now, as the EU faces a meltdown, the fate of NATO is even more unclear.
European nations are more and more discontent with the EU. The aftermath of Brexit, and the banking crisis that has spread from Italy to Germany, only inflame the tension. As a result, major European powers are less likely to play a bigger role in NATO.
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Thursday, September 22, 2016
What's Keeping the Stock Market Up? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016
By: Anthony_Cherniawski
There appears to be some unfinished business in the NDX. It appears that the Cycle Top may be challenged yet one more time before reversing down. From there, it should sync up with the SPX in their declines.
Wave 5 = 1 and [v] = [i] at 4903.00 or slightly higher, but Cycle Top resistance is strong. In addition, Wave (C) equals Wave (A) at 4865, so the Wave relationships may limit the upside. Whether it goes all the way is to be determined, but it appears that NDX will be having an influence on the markets until it is finished.
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Thursday, September 22, 2016
Lemmings Only Function in The Stock Market is to Serve as Cannon Fodder / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016
By: Sol_Palha
"A genius can't be forced; nor can you make an ape an alderman." ~ Thomas Somerville
From the Tulip bubble to the financial meltdown of 2008, the theme has been the same. The masses never learn, they always cry foul on the way down but gurgle with joy on the way up. In other words, when they are making money, they are okay with the risk, but when they start to lose, they scream bloody murder.
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Thursday, September 22, 2016
What If Clinton Wins US Presidential Election 2016 / ElectionOracle / US Presidential Election 2016
By: Dan_Steinbock
According to polls, the race to the White House is over. Clinton has won, Trump has lost. If that proves the case, US economic erosion will slow but imperial foreign policy may escalate, which has critical repercussions in Asia.The polls reflect the new status quo. Despite her high unfavorability ratings, Clinton now has the support of every second registered voter, whereas Trump, with his high unfavorability ratings, can rely only on every third. As a result, Clinton’s likely voters nationwide amount to 45-50 percent, as against Trump’s 35-40 percent.
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Thursday, September 22, 2016
Overcoming The Second Steel Crisis / Commodities / Steel Sector
By: Dan_Steinbock
Today, advanced economies blame China for steel overcapacity. In reality, four decades ago Washington and Brussels opted for bad policies, which China seeks to transcend. In the G20 summit in Hangzhou, some world leaders had harsh words for China’s steel overcapacity. Before the summit, President Barack Obama was urged by US lawmakers, unions and trade associations to blame China’s trade practices for US mill closures and unemployment and to stress the need for “aggressive enforcement of US trade remedy laws.”
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Thursday, September 22, 2016
Japan’s Economy Impending Monetary Exhaustion / Economics / Japan Economy
By: Dan_Steinbock
Japan’s monetary gamble and Abenomics are approaching the end of the road. Neither Brussels nor Washington is immune to the adverse consequences of Tokyo's monetary exhaustion, says Dan Steinbock. Recently, Japan’s second quarter GDP growth was revised up to 0.7 percent, after four consecutive quarters of stagnation. But don’t set your hopes too high.
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Thursday, September 22, 2016
Gold Rises 1.5%, Silver Surges 3% After Fed Stays Ultra Loose At 0.25% / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016
By: GoldCore
Gold was up 1.5% and silver surged 3.1% yesterday after Janet Yellen again failed to raise rates from record lows at 0.25%. The Fed maintained ultra loose monetary policies which are again creating stock and bond market bubbles in the U.S. and other countries.
Thursday, September 22, 2016
Stock Market Sentiment Improves Following Fed's Rate Decision, Will The Uptrend Continue? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016
By: Paul_Rejczak
Briefly: In our opinion, speculative short positions are favored (with stop-loss at 2,210, and profit target at 2,050, S&P 500 index).
Our intraday outlook is bearish, and our short-term outlook is bearish. Our medium-term outlook is neutral, following S&P 500 index breakout above last year's all-time high:
Intraday outlook (next 24 hours): bearish
Short-term outlook (next 1-2 weeks): bearish
Medium-term outlook (next 1-3 months): neutral
Long-term outlook (next year): neutral
Thursday, September 22, 2016
Yellen’s Oversight of the Fed Is Not Producing Monetary Policy but Disbelief / Interest-Rates / US Federal Reserve Bank
By: Jeff_Berwick
The real product of the Fed these days is not monetary policy but disbelief. People can’t believe the amount of speculation, conversation and outright complexity that results in… nothing.
Yellen is basically presiding over the deflation of the Fed’s reputation. Every month more and more credibility leaks away.
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Thursday, September 22, 2016
Silver Price Forecast: Higher Silver Prices For Many Years To Come / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016
By: Hubert_Moolman
In a previous article, I highlighted how a Head and Shoulders Bottoming pattern on the silver chart
suggested that the silver rally since the beginning of 2016 is likely to continue.
This pattern has now matured nicely, thanks to the retrace to the breakout area. Below, is a silver chart (all charts from tradingview.com), with that pattern and the retrace to the breakout area highlighted:
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Thursday, September 22, 2016
Spectacularly Higher Day as NDX Makes New 15-Year Highs / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016
By: Harry_Boxer
The stock market had a very volatile session today. First they gapped up and ran to resistance, rolled over hard to test support, and after the FOMC, bounced, and then exploded. They then pulled back sharply and held, and then went ballistic in the last couple hours, then went vertical at that point, going from 4810 Nasdaq 100, all the way up to 4859, a 49 run up. The S&P 500 went from 2144 to 2165, and closed not far off the highs.
Net on the day, the Dow was up 163.74 at 18,293.70, 14 points off the high. The S&P 500 was up 23.36 at 2163.12, just 2 points off its high. The Nasdaq 100 had a strong day, up 48.53 at 4853.75, 5 points off its high.
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Thursday, September 22, 2016
Gutless Fed Bails On A Rate Hike Yet Again.... / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates
By: Jack_Steiman
Fed Yellen is gutless and very transparent. She does the same nonsense over and over. She talks about the need to normalize rates and tells us that things are improving economically. We all know that she's not telling the truth and we all know by now that she's a phony. She never had any intention of raising rates, and found the usual excuses she knows will be there for her. Poor numbers as the year moves along on the economic front. She smiled from ear-to-ear when manufacturing stunk. She smiled more when services nosedived, and celebrated when retail sales were a major disappointment. Three beautiful excuses not to raise rates in September.
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Thursday, September 22, 2016
Federal Reserve, US Interest Rates - America Needs A Brain / Interest-Rates / US Federal Reserve Bank
By: Barry_M_Ferguson
Like the scarecrow in the ‘Wizard of Oz’, America needs a brain. Otherwise, it will never get out of the corn field.
The Federal Reserve Bank met today and again left interest rates and the fed funds rate as is. No change. But, they said a rate increase before the year is out is still a very real possibility. Ha, ha, ha, ha, ha, ha, ha, ha, ha, ha, ha!!!!!! These mendacious meddlers of monetary policy are hilarious. Stan Fisher has lost all credibility since he was so adamant a few weeks ago about rate increases. Janet Yellen? A complete joke. The Fed apparently uses the same ‘red line’ that obama uses. Threats and nothing more. They don’t have the guts and they sure don’t have the intellect to know what to do. Of course, we all know if the Fed really wanted to help they would follow the advice of Jim Rodgers. They should all resign immediately and terminate the Fed bank. But that ain’t going to happen.
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Wednesday, September 21, 2016
The Fed Chickens Out / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2016
By: Anthony_Cherniawski
SPX made a marginal new high this afternoon as the Fed “chickened out” on its rate decision.. This is one of the sloppiest Ending Diagonals I’ve seen in a while, but that appears to be the best fit. Wave [v] appears to be complete, so those who have stepped aside may re-engage their short positions.