IMMIGRATION DRIVES HOUSE PRICES HIGHER
Housing-Market / US Housing Sep 12, 2024 - 06:13 PM GMTBy: Nadeem_Walayat
All those who want house prices to go up should be bending over backwards to encourage immigration because those western nations with little immigration are literally DYING. One only needs to look at Asia.
Japan, immigrant population 2.3% - Fertility rate 1.2 - DYING - Population falling at the rate of near 1 million per year!
South Korea - 4.3% immigrant population - Fertility rate 1.11 - DYING - Second lowest birth rate amongst western nations.
Taiwan - 6% immigrant population - Fertility rate 1.1 - Population stable due to immigration mostly from China .
China - 0.07% immigrant population - Fertility rate 1.16 - DYING - No one wants to migrate to China!
What's the consequences of a falling population?
Your house will become worthless over time. That's right not worth LESS but WORTHLESS!
In Japan you can buy a home for as little as $1000, why? because no one wants to live in a decrepit Japanese town where the only jobs are in the care sector to look after the growing elderly population. And then one has to contend with Japans Xenophobia, hence Japan will DIE, soon see it's population fall by over 1 million a year to be littered with ghost towns and eventually cities.
The Robots are coming to enrich the elites but they won't enrich the masses or push up house prices! In fact the exact opposite is true a robot workforce will act as a DRAG on house prices but not for the rich! They will get wealthier and continue to own everything worth owning.
The prerequisite for rising house prices is a RISING population and for that to happen a nation needs a fertility rate of at least 2.1 which is known as the replacement rate anything less than that will result in a falling population that requires fresh blood (immigrants) to bridge the gap, and given the structure of modern societies being ANTI-FAMILY, i.e. the cost of bringing children up in today's age is far higher than it was even in the recent past, then virtually every nation has a falling birth rate and thus the only way to grow a population is by means of immigration, else your nation will die! Worse still the able bodied young are not going to sit around to waste the best years of their lives looking after old farts in the care sector, instead they will be off migrating abroad to live out their dreams elsewhere..
I have already covered this many times before that if you want persistent house prices inflation then one needs a rising population without which you don't just get deflation but that your property may become as good worthless, unable to be sold as is the case right across modern Japan, that's what Xenophobia delivers! YOU and your country will DIE!
Japan will panic and encourage immigration by encouraging workers from the regional developing nations into their care sector, but the smart immigrants don't want to go and work in a dying nation with little future, they want to go to where the future looks brightest, the likes of the US and Britain, Australia, Canada and New Zealand. Whilst nations such as Japan will pay the price as they become irrelevant on the world stage, it's amazing not so long ago the West Feared the RISE OF Japan, just as today many fear the rise of China, well today no one pays a second thought to Japan being any sort of economic threat, a global player, and the same will soon become true of China.
Nevertheless if you want to to take a gamble on a depressed housing market and prepared to go and live in Japan for at least part of the year so you understand the lay of the land then after much research there could be an opportunity to pick up a property dirt cheap, at a fraction of what similar would cost in the UK and US, but again you will have to actually go and live there to understand what has prospects for recovery and what has no prospects, i.e. you don't want to purchase a cheap property online only to later find out it's not far from the Fukushima nuclear plant that blew up!
Bottom line if a nation has a falling population then it is dying which translates into economic stagnation and worse a permanent depression given an ageing population. We see this in Japan which IS DYING, The Yen in a state of collapse which will eventually translate into INFLATION as the cost of imports and hiring foreign labour goes UP ad given the Japans huge debt mountain I doubt Japan can raise interest rates to halt the Yens terminal decline.
This article is an excerpt from extensive analysis US Housing Market Analysis, House Prices Trend Forecast 2024 to 2026 that was first made available to patrons who support my work. So for immediate first access to ALL of my analysis and trend forecasts then do consider becoming a Patron by supporting my work for just $7 per month, lock it in now at $7 before next rises to $10 per month for new sign-ups. https://www.patreon.com/Nadeem_Walayat.
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IMMIGRATION DRIVES HOUSE PRICES HIGHER
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Nadeem Walayat has over 30 years experience of trading derivatives, portfolio management and analysing the financial markets, including one of few who both anticipated and Beat the 1987 Crash. Nadeem's forward looking analysis focuses on UK inflation, economy, interest rates and housing market. He is the author of five ebook's in the The Inflation Mega-Trend and Stocks Stealth Bull Market series that can be downloaded for Free.
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