Analysis Topic: Stock & Financial Markets
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Sunday, November 14, 2021
Focus on Stock Market Real Gains / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Monica_Kingsley
S&P 500 declined, and not enough buyers arrived in my view. Still, we‘re likely to see a brief pause in selling, and that‘s giving the bulls a chance. Credit markets were a bit too beaten down by the troubled 30-year Treasury auction and Evergrande moving into the spotlight somewhat again. VIX managed another upswing, and doesn‘t point to the S&P 500 having gotten to an excessively bearish positioning just yet.
I think some treading the water before stocks make up their mind, is most likely next. The downswing doesn‘t appear to be totally over, but we have arguably seen the greater part of it already. Tech isn‘t yet stabilized, but the increasing volume spells a pause in selling. I‘m still looking for clues to the bond markets.
And it‘s clear that not even higher rates can sink the precious metals run – neither the late day rush to the dollar had that power. Miners continue behaving, and their daily black candle doesn‘t scare me – the realization of inflation not having peaked, and being as stubborn as I had been pounding the table since eternity, is working its magic:
(…) inflation expectations are moving higher – the more you shorten the maturity, the higher they go, let alone RINF, their key ETF. Markets will be proven very wrong about the transitory inflation complacency – inflation rates aren‘t going to decline if you just leave them alone. And taper coupled with rate hikes hesitancy won‘t do the trick either.
S&P 500 is still primed to go higher – the only question is the shape of the current consolidation. Liquidity is still ample, the banking sector is strong, and the Russell 2000 isn‘t really retreating.
Precious metals are consolidating – it‘s almost a pre-CPI ritual, but under the surface, the pressure to go higher keeps building. I‘m looking for a strong Dec in gold and silver, with unyielding oil and copper gradually waking up. Cryptos aren‘t taking prisoners either.
Crude oil is well bid in the $78 till $80 zone, and would overcome $85 – we aren‘t looking at a reversal, but at temporary upside rejection. Likewise copper would kick in with vengeance, and the shallow crypto consolidations are barely worth mentioning at all.
Sunday, November 14, 2021
US Economy & Stock Market Addicted to Deficit Spending / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Want to know what's driving the stock market into the stratosphere? US Deficit Spending! (actually twin deficits including Trade).
Here's the Dow divided by the annual US budget deficit. Usually the lower the reading the better the prospects for the stock market because the stocks are being fuelled by rampant money printing deficit spending that is being monetized by he central bank on an epic scale.
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Saturday, November 13, 2021
Stock Market AI mega-trend Stocks Big Picture / Stock-Markets / Tech Stocks
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Just pause for a moment and take in the chart in this video - the message one should be receiving loud and clear is that I expect this bull market to run for many more years, whilst my best guess a year ago was that it would top in early 2027, as long as run away valuations moderate during 2022 then I don't see why this should still not remain as the big picture, thus the bull market could extend to 18 years from it's March 2009 low!
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Friday, November 12, 2021
How Emerging Markets ETF Followed a Classic Elliott Wave Pattern / Stock-Markets / Emerging Markets
By: EWI
Here's what happened after the completion of a "bullish triangle"
A Charles Schwab survey shows that 15% of today's retail investors started investing in 2020.
And, regarding 2021, an August 2 CNBC headline said:
New investors are jumping into the market
So, when you combine the influx from this year and last, that adds up to a lot of new investors.
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Thursday, November 11, 2021
Financial Crisis 2.0 Checklist - China Crisis, Stagflation, Stocks Bubble, Reverse Repo... / Stock-Markets / Financial Crisis 2021
By: Nadeem_Walayat
China's property market is collapsing but the only data we have at present is anecdotal from the property developer canaries in the coal mine which have been under extreme distress for several months, with now dozens defaulting on their debts triggering fire sales of housing stock to raise revenues as they desperately fight to stay alive in the face of impending debt and interest payments, playing their part in the brewing Financial Crisis 2.0.
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Thursday, November 11, 2021
Dow Stock Market Trend Analysis / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Nadeem_Walayat
This is part 3 of my extensive analysis that maps out the stock markets trend into Mid 2022 - Stock Market FOMO Hits September Brick Wall - Dow Trend Forecast Sept 2021 to May 2022
Part 1 - Stock Market FOMO Going into Crash Season
Part 2 - Why Most Stocks May Go Nowhere for the Next 10 Years!
Contents:
- Stock Market Forecast 2021 Review
- Stock Market AI mega-trend Big Picture
- US Economy and Stock Market Addicted to Deficit Spending
- US Economy Has Been in an Economic Depression Since 2008
- Inflation and the Crazy Crypto Markets
- Inflation Consequences for the Stock Market
- FED Balance Sheet
- Weakening Stock Market Breadth
- Why Most Stocks May Go Nowhere for the Next 10 Years!
- FANG Stocks
- Margin Debt
- Dow Short-term Trend Analysis
- Dow Annual Percent Change
- Dow Long-term Trend Analysis
- ELLIOTT WAVES Analysis
- Stocks and 10 Year Bond Yields
- SEASONAL ANALYSIS
- Short-term Seasonal Trend
- US Presidential Cycle
- Best Time of Year to Invest in Stocks
- 2021 - 2022 Seasonal Investing Pattern
- Formulating a Stock Market Trend Forecast
- Dow Stock Market Trend Forecast Sept 2021 to May 2022 Conclusion
- Investing fundamentals
- IBM Continuing to Revolutionise Computing
- AI Stocks Portfolio Current State
- My Late October Stocks Buying Plan
- HIGH RISK STOCKS - Invest and Forget!
- Afghanistan The Next Chinese Province, Australia Living on Borrowed Time
- CHINA! CHINA! CHINA!
- Evergrande China's Lehman's Moment
- Aukus Ruckus
Thursday, November 11, 2021
Stock Market Great Profitable Runs / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Monica_Kingsley
S&P 500 pause goes on, and bonds support more of it to come. Tech keeps thus far the high ground gained, but value is showing signs of very short-term weakness – and yields haven‘t retreated yesterday really. The correct view of the stock market action is one of microrotations unfolding in a weakening environment – one increasingly fraught with downside risks.
To be clear, I‘m not looking for a sizable correction, but a very modest one both in time and price. It‘s a question of time, and I think it would be driven by tech weakness as the sector has reached lofty levels. It‘ll go higher over time still, but this is the time for value and smallcaps in the medium term.
The dollar though isn‘t putting much pressure on stock, commodity or precious metals prices at the moment – such were my yesterday‘s words:
(…) when the dollar starts rolling over to the downside (I‘m looking at the early Dec debt ceiling drama to trigger it off), emerging markets would love that. And commodities with precious metals too, of course – sensing the upcoming greenback weakness has been part and parcel of the gold and silver resilience of late. Precious metals are only getting started, but the greatest fireworks would come early spring 2022 when the Fed‘s failure to act on inflation becomes broadly acknowledged.
For now, they‘re still getting away with the transitory talking points, and chalking it down to supply chain issues. As if these could solve the balance sheet expansion or fresh (most probably again short-dated) Treasuries issuance (come Dec) – the Fed is also way behind other central banks in raising rates. Canada, Mexico and many others have already moved while UK and Australia are signalling readiness – the U.S. central bank is joined by ECB in hesitating.
And that‘s what precious metals would be increasingly sniffing out. Commodities are joining in the post-taper celebrations, and my prior Tuesday‘s market assessments are coming to fruition one by one. Oil is swinging higher and hasn‘t topped, copper is coming back to life, and cryptos aren‘t in a waiting mood either.
Thursday, November 11, 2021
Sentiment Speaks: How Wrong You Are Mr. Market / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Avi_Gilburt
So, I decided to read yet another article calling for a market crash. Needless to say, the body of the article offered nothing of true substance upon which I cared to comment, and I was saddened by the several minutes of time I wish I could have gotten back. That is, until I read the comments section, which provided me fodder to write this article.
“News flash, that bull market ended last year. We're in the beginning stages of a new one.”
“That crash is still going on, the market just hasn't caught up with it yet”
“Article #512 on SA in 2021 about the upcoming crash. Eventually, they will all be right. I do nothing different ever. I believe in my investments and I ride out crashes and corrections. Have cash available to buy which are wealth building opportunities. I always feel sorry for the poor panic sellers who miss out on so many gains because they are out of the market. It is only a loss if you sell. And, the market will come back and make new highs 100% of the time. This is an historical fact.”
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Wednesday, November 10, 2021
Financial Crisis 2.0 Checklist - The China Syndrome / Stock-Markets / Financial Crisis 2021
By: Nadeem_Walayat
China's property market is collapsing but the only data we have at present is anecdotal from the property developer canaries in the coal mine which have been under extreme distress for several months, with now dozens defaulting on their debts triggering fire sales of housing stock to raise revenues as they desperately fight to stay alive in the face of impending debt and interest payments, playing their part in the brewing Financial Crisis 2.0.
Financial Crisis 2.0 Checklist
- China housing market in distress - CHECK
- China's economy slowing - CHECK
- US Economy slowing - CHECK
- Brewing STAGFLATION - Slowing economy coupled with rising prices - CHECK
- Black Swan Event - Crisis at the ports - CHECK
- Economic Models busted - Workers refusing to return to work not factored into Economic models - CHECK
- REVERSE REPO MARKET - Banks desperate to swap deposit liabilities for T-bills collateral so as to lower capital requirements which has drained the capital markets of over $1 trillion - CHECK
- STOCK MARKET BUBBLE - Valuations have lost touch with reality - CHECK
- FED TAPERING into a Weakening Economy - Huge Risk of a valuation reset - CHECK
- IMPEMDING DOOM! - The relentless march of the Climate Change Mega-trend where all that the worlds leaders did at COP26 was Blah Blah Blah - CHECK!
Wednesday, November 10, 2021
Stock Market Long and Short-term Seasonal Trends / Stock-Markets / Seasonal Trends
By: Nadeem_Walayat
SEASONAL ANALYSIS
The seasonal pattern suggests after a pause in Feb, higher into late April, then correct from early May into late June followed by a volatile summer terminating in a swing low during September that should set the scene for a bull run into the Christmas Holidays with of course intra month volatility during October that tends to resolve to the upside just as the perma-bears are crowing at their loudest that the end is neigh.
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Wednesday, November 10, 2021
Stocks and 10 Year Bond Yields / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The basic pattern is for falling yields to be bearish for stocks whilst rising yields are bullish for stocks. The reason being is that investors are selling bonds to buy stocks hence yields and stocks rise.
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Tuesday, November 09, 2021
Dow Stock Market ELLIOTT WAVESÂ Trend Forecast / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Nadeem_Walayat
ELLIOTT WAVES
Every high is the fifth of the fifth of the fifth! until the market fails to follow through and on we march with the next high then the next high, which is why I take Elliott Wave Theory with a mountain of salt.
My Elliott Wave pattern of Feb 2009 has proven remarkably accurate (as did the pattern before that), see being skeptical works! It's when people think they have found the holy grail when things start to go wrong!
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Tuesday, November 09, 2021
Stock Market Bullish Trend Continues / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Andre_Gratian
Current Position of the Market
SPX Long-term trend: The 4540 projection which had been in effect since the March 2020 low has now been reached but appears to have been only an intermediate target. Higher levels should now be reached before an important top is struck.
SPX Intermediate trend: An intermediate correction has ended and given way to another intermediate uptrend.
Analysis of the short-term trend is done daily with the help of hourly charts. They are important adjuncts to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which determine longer market trends.
Tuesday, November 09, 2021
Stock Market Dow Long-term Trend Analysis / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The Dow has barely had any significant correction in now approaching a year, chugging along the upper resistance trend line for the past 6 months.
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Monday, November 08, 2021
Stock Market Dow Annual Percent Change Analysis / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The Dow in percentage terms is well on it's way to retreating from it's most overbought state in decades, what usually tends to happen is that the Dow percent touches or more usually crosses below the red bar and for the bull market to resume would need to cross back above the red bar.How far would the Dow need to fall to fulfill this requirement in the allotted Sept / Oct correction time window? Probably to around 28k. However the alternative is that the Dow stays put around 34k to 35k for the next 6 months, which does not seem probable, so this indicator is suggesting a swift sharp drop to possibly as low as 28k within the next few weeks!
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Thursday, November 04, 2021
Why Most Stocks May Go Nowhere for the Next 10 Years! / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Dear Reader
This is part 2 of my extensive analysis that maps out the stock markets trend into Mid 2022 w- Stock Market FOMO Hits September Brick Wall - Dow Trend Forecast Sept 2021 to May 2022
Part 1 - Stock Market FOMO Going into Crash Season
Contents:
- Stock Market Forecast 2021 Review
- Stock Market AI mega-trend Big Picture
- US Economy and Stock Market Addicted to Deficit Spending
- US Economy Has Been in an Economic Depression Since 2008
- Inflation and the Crazy Crypto Markets
- Inflation Consequences for the Stock Market
- FED Balance Sheet
- Weakening Stock Market Breadth
- Why Most Stocks May Go Nowhere for the Next 10 Years!
- FANG Stocks
- Margin Debt
- Dow Short-term Trend Analysis
- Dow Annual Percent Change
- Dow Long-term Trend Analysis
- ELLIOTT WAVES Analysis
- Stocks and 10 Year Bond Yields
- SEASONAL ANALYSIS
- Short-term Seasonal Trend
- US Presidential Cycle
- Best Time of Year to Invest in Stocks
- 2021 - 2022 Seasonal Investing Pattern
- Formulating a Stock Market Trend Forecast
- Dow Stock Market Trend Forecast Sept 2021 to May 2022 Conclusion
- Investing fundamentals
- IBM Continuing to Revolutionise Computing
- AI Stocks Portfolio Current State
- My Late October Stocks Buying Plan
- HIGH RISK STOCKS - Invest and Forget!
- Afghanistan The Next Chinese Province, Australia Living on Borrowed Time
- CHINA! CHINA! CHINA!
- Evergrande China's Lehman's Moment
- Aukus Ruckus
Tuesday, November 02, 2021
Stock Market Nearing Short-term High / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Andre_Gratian
Current Position of the Market
SPX Long-term trend: The 4540 projection which had been in effect since the March 2020 low has now been reached but appears to have been only an intermediate target. Higher levels should now be reached before an important top is struck.
SPX Intermediate trend: An intermediate correction has ended and given way to another intermediate uptrend.
Analysis of the short-term trend is done daily with the help of hourly charts. They are important adjuncts to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which determine longer market trends.
Monday, November 01, 2021
Profit-Taking After Earnings May Send Stock Prices Lower / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Paul_Rejczak
Stocks retraced their short-term decline yesterday, but today we may see a lower opening following the earnings releases. Is this a topping pattern?
The S&P 500 index gained 0.98% on Thursday, Oct. 28, as it retraced its whole Tuesday’s-Wednesday’s decline to the support level of 4,550. It got back to the Tuesday’s record high of 4,598.53 yesterday. The daily close was just 2 points below that level. The stock market is still reacting to quarterly corporate earnings releases. Yesterday we got the releases from AAPL and AMZN, among others. But the first reaction to their numbers was negative. The market seems overbought in the short-term it is most likely fluctuating within a topping pattern.
The nearest important support level is at 4,550, and the next support level is at 4,520-4,525, marked by the previous Wednesday’s daily gap up of 4,520.40-4,524.40. On the other hand, the resistance level is at around 4,600, marked by the new record high. Despite reaching new record highs, the S&P 500 remained below a very steep week-long upward trend line, as we can see on the daily chart (chart by courtesy of http://stockcharts.com):
Monday, November 01, 2021
Wild Choppy Stock Market Moves / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2021
By: Monica_Kingsley
One-sided S&P 500 session, perhaps a bit too much – the bulls are likely to face issues extending gains when VIX is examined. The stock market sentiment remains mixed, and one could easily be pardoned for expecting larger gains on yesterday‘s magnitute of the dollar slump. And long-dated Treasuries barely moved – their daily candle approximates nicely the volatility one as both give the impression of wanting to move a bit higher while their Thursday‘s move was a countertrend one.
Not even value was able to surge past its Wednesday‘s setback, which makes me think the bears can return easily. At the same time, tech stepped into the void, and had a positive day, balancing the dowwnside S&P 500 risks significantly. The very short-term outlook in stocks is unclear, and choppy trading between yesterday‘s highs and 4,550 shouldn‘t be surprising today.
At the same time, precious metals could have had a much stronger day – but the sentiment was risk-off in spite of the tanking dollar and doubted yields as the rising tech and gold at the expense of silver illustrate. Miners recent outperformance was absent just as much as commodities vigor with the exception of copper. And it‘s more celebrations in the red metal following its steep and far reaching correction, that‘s the part of missing ingredients as much as fresh inflation fears (yes, adding to risk-off mood, inflation expectations declined yesterday).
Sunday, October 31, 2021
Why Most Stocks May Go Nowhere for the Next 10 Years! / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Here's why PE ratio's matter as the following chart shows the return 10 years forward from the starting average PE i.e if the stock market is trading on an average PE of 27 than can basically be expected to go nowhere for the next 10 years. Whilst the lower the PE the higher the expected return (on average), where the safe zone for investing is at a starting PE of between 10 and 20.
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