Analysis Topic: Stock & Financial Markets
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Wednesday, September 22, 2021
Stock Market FOMO Hits September Brick Wall - Evergrande China's Lehman's Moment / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Dear Reader
My last analysis posted on the 1st of September proved to be a timely reminder that an historically overbought stock market on virtually every measure was entering into the seasonally worst trading month of the year that at the very least suggests to prepare for a significant correction with each passing day and there was even a possibility of market panic event, a CRASH for which there are countless indicators that I have been covering since Mid June such as what is taking place in the Reverse Repo market of a defacto brewing Financial Crisis 2.0, the magnitude of which we will only realise with the benefit of hindsight, hence why I sold out of 80% of my Top AI stocks during the summer months with the last being to exit IBM leaving my AI stocks portfolio in it's current state, devoid for the first time in many years of the likes of Microsoft Apple, Nvidia and Amazon, with holdings of Google and Facebook greatly reduced.
Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, September 22, 2021
Stock Market Time to Buy the Dip? / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Monica_Kingsley
S&P 500 dived, yet the slide was bought before the closing bell. Does the long lower knot mean the selling is over? It‘s too early to say as following similar momentuous days, it takes 1-3 days for the dust to clear usually. The selling pressure might not be over, and the question is how far will it reach on a fresh attempt – 4,350s look attainable.
There, the fate of this correction would be decided, but we‘re on the verge of the historically more volatile part of Sep, and tomorrow‘s FOMC would up the ante. The dollar though was unable to rally, to keep intraday gains – on one hand a certain show of strength given the retreat in Treasury yields, on the other hand, proof of stiff headwinds as the world reserve currency isn‘t in a bull market. I‘m leaning towards the latter explanation.
As stocks rebound in what may still turn out to be a dead cat bounce, commodities got clobbered too – just as cryptos did. Gold attracted safe haven demand as money flew to Treasuries as well. Miners with silver holding ground, are a good sign for the sector – the overwhelmingly negative sentiment looks getting long in the tooth.
Tuesday, September 21, 2021
Evergrande China's Lehman's Moment, Tip of the Ice Berg in Financial Crisis 2.0 / Stock-Markets / Financial Crisis 2021
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Financial Crisis 2.0 continues to unfold where China's giant property developer Evergrande is the canary in the coal mine, tip of the ice-berg, China's Lehman's moment that looks set to default on $300 billion of debts. Here's what the giant property developers stock price looks like.
Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, September 21, 2021
The Fed Is Playing The Biggest Game Of Chicken In History / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2021
By: Avi_Gilburt
Yeah, I know everyone is so certain that inflation is what we will be battling for the foreseeable future. The main reason why many of you are so certain we are battling inflation is because you are seeing prices rise on food and other items for which you shop. But, do rising prices really mean we are dealing with the true economic definition of inflation?
To be honest, I really don’t care what you call it. It makes no difference to me since our analysis tells me when to get in and out of the market. You see, I and many others correctly recognize that the stock market leads the economy. So economic definitions have no bearing upon our forward-looking expectations regarding the stock market. And, I have explained why this is the case in past articles:
Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, September 21, 2021
Focus on Stock Market Short-term Cycle / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Andre_Gratian
Current Position of the MarketSPX Long-term trend: There is some evidence that we are still in the bull market which started in 2009 and which could continue until major cycles take over, and it ends. The 4550 projection which had been in effect since the March 2020 low has now been reached, but there is still no sign of a major top.
SPX Intermediate trend: A Short-term SPX correction is underway.
Analysis of the short-term trend is done daily with the help of hourly charts. They are important adjuncts to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which determine longer market trends.
Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, September 20, 2021
Stock Market FOMO Hits September CRASH Brick Wall - Dow Trend Forecast 2021 Review / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Nadeem_Walayat
My last analysis posted on the 1st of September proved to be a timely reminder that an historically overbought stock market on virtually every measure was entering into the seasonally worst trading month of the year that at the very least suggests to prepare for a significant correction with each passing day and there was even a possibility of market panic event, a CRASH for which there are countless indicators that I have been covering since Mid June such as what is taking place in the Reverse Repo market of a defacto brewing Financial Crisis 2.0, the magnitude of which we will only realise with the benefit of hindsight, hence why I sold out of 80% of my Top AI stocks during the summer months with the last being to exit IBM leaving my AI stocks portfolio in it's current state, devoid for the first time in many years of the likes of Microsoft Apple, Nvidia and Amazon, with holdings of Google and Facebook greatly reduced.
Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, September 19, 2021
Stock Market FOMO Hits September Brick Wall - Dow Trend Forecast 2021 Review / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Nadeem_Walayat
My last analysis posted on the 1st of September proved to be a timely reminder that an historically overbought stock market on virtually every measure was entering into the seasonally worst trading month of the year that at the very least suggests to prepare for a significant correction with each passing day and there was even a possibility of market panic event, a CRASH for which there are countless indicators that I have been covering since Mid June such as what is taking place in the Reverse Repo market of a defacto brewing Financial Crisis 2.0, the magnitude of which we will only realise with the benefit of hindsight, hence why I sold out of 80% of my Top AI stocks during the summer months with the last being to exit IBM leaving my AI stocks portfolio in it's current state, devoid for the first time in many years of the likes of Microsoft Apple, Nvidia and Amazon, with holdings of Google and Facebook greatly reduced.
Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, September 18, 2021
Stock Market Shaking Off the Taper Blues / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Monica_Kingsley
S&P 500 recovered from the selling at open, but the picture is hardly one of universal strength. Tech rose while value erased half of the intraday decline, and high yield corporate bonds closed little changed. Risk-on seems as slowly returning unless you look at the retail sales surprise boosting the odds of Sep taper. Is it though really going to happen?
I continue to think the Fed won‘t move too far, too fast, and that no real action would follow later this month. The job creation isn‘t at its strongest, and yesterday brought us a daily overreaction to positive data, which coupled with the preceding manufacturing ones reveals that the moderation in economic growth would be indeed shallow and temporary. This daily panic was nowhere better seen than in gold and silver – neither USD nor yields moved much.
Unless the 4,440 level in S&P 500 is broken to the downside, stocks appear on the verge of yet another accumulation while commodities are best positioned to rise strongly (the Fed isn‘t mopping up excess liquidity, no). Crude oil hasn‘t spoken the last word, and looks ready to continue upwards following a little consolidation around $72. Copper‘s wild ride continues, and I‘m not looking for the red metal‘s 50-day moving average to start declining.
Saturday, September 18, 2021
Why a Financial Markets "Panic" May Be Just Around the Corner / Stock-Markets / Financial Crisis 2021
By: EWI
Here's why global investors should keep a close eye on "sight deposits"
Investors look to an array of indicators in hopes of determining what is next for the financial markets in which they are interested.
Some investors may focus entirely on "technical" indicators such as the Relative Strength Index (RSI), price levels of "support" or "resistance," or say, advancing vs. declining issues, just to name a few. As you probably know, there are many more technical indicators.
Market participants also look at sentiment readings such as mutual fund cash levels, investors' use of leverage, surveys and so on.
Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, September 15, 2021
Dow Stock Market Trend Forecasting Neural Nets Pattern Recognition / Stock-Markets / AI
By: Nadeem_Walayat
So far all attempts to predict the Dow via machine learning have failed, as mentioned above feeding nets with obvious data such as open, close, high, low and then a candle chart version does not work. In fact the neural net part is the easy part via the likes of Tensor Flow. The problem is with the data which as I explained earlier needs to be preprocessed i.e. feeding raw data into the networks as inputs ends up with noisy networks, if it did work then it would be easy to successfully train neural nets and they would be widespread instead as far as I am aware there aren't really any neural nets out there that can successfully trade stocks.
So what does preprocessing actually mean?
There are 2 ways to go about preprocessing data for stock market forecasts.
1. Pattern recognition
2. Trend Analysis preprocessing.
Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, September 14, 2021
Is This the "Kiss of Death" for the Stocks Bull Market? / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: EWI
Stock market prices usually decline after this occurs
Many market observers believe that the catalyst for the next bear market will be a piece of extraordinarily bad news.
However, Elliott Wave International has shown time and again that the stock market's price action is often "entirely detached from what most people assume are causal conditions."
Examples of stocks rising when the news is bad -- and falling when the news is good -- are so numerous that a library shelf of books would be inadequate to show a fair representation of them. For the most recent vivid example, just think back to March 2020, when the first wave of the pandemic hit and shuttered the entire global economy -- yet, stocks (around the world!) happily found a bottom and haven't looked back since.
Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, September 14, 2021
Where Are the Stock Market Fireworks? / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Monica_Kingsley
Stocks and credit markets gave up promising opening gains, and it was only commodities that had a really good day. Seems like the beneficiary of inflation would be indeed real assets as I had been harping about so often, and that the S&P 500 is starting to run into headwinds. Not on account of taper expectations, which appear to have been indeed pushed to the Nov-Dec time window, but thanks to inflation. Whenever you start seeing heavyweights roll over to the downside, it‘s time to pay attention.
Yes, enter tech behemoths – worthwhile to watch. Stagflation would be a powerful environment to facilitate stock market declines – who could forget the 1974-5 slump? Real assets stand positioned to reap the rewards as the cost push inflation that I‘ve been discussing since early this year, is very much intact. Throw in some serious supply chain disruptions that won‘t be resolved this year, and all you end up with, is waiting for precious metals to catch up in the commodities appreciation – bringing in very nice profits in oil and copper… My total portfolio performance chart is at a fresh high!
Monday, September 13, 2021
SPX Base Projection Reached – End of the Line? / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Andre_Gratian
Current Position of the Market
SPX Long-term trend: There is some evidence that we are still in the bull market which started in 2009 and which could continue into 2021 until major cycles take over, and it ends. A move up to ~4500 is possible before the current bull market makes a final top and SPX corrects into its next major cycle low due in 2023.
SPX Intermediate trend: SPX correction underway.
Analysis of the short-term trend is done daily with the help of hourly charts. They are important adjuncts to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which determine longer market trends.
Friday, September 10, 2021
The Inflation/Deflation debate wears on… / Stock-Markets / Inflation
By: Gary_Tanashian
Our 30 year Treasury yield ‘Continuum’ chart indicates that deflation is the dominant trend, but…
Steve Saville has written a post that got me thinking about carts and horses and more precisely, which comes before which. Is the inflationary horse pulling the deflationary cart up hill or is the deflationary cart leading the horse to drink from the shrinking liquidity pool periodically?
See The Crisis-Monetisation Cycle
In conclusion to this short post Steve asserts…
Read full article... Read full article...“The crisis-monetisation cycle doesn’t end in deflation. The merest whiff of deflation just encourages central bankers and politicians to do more to boost prices. In fact, the occasional deflation scare is necessary to keep the cycle going. The cycle only ends when most voters see “inflation” as the biggest threat to their personal economic prospects.”
Thursday, September 09, 2021
Investing in a Bubble Mania Stock Market Trending Towards Financial Crisis 2.0 CRASH! / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Dear Reader
This is third and final part of my recent extensive analysis (Part 1) (Part 2) in advance of Financial Crisis 2.0 as a handful of stocks are driving the indices higher, Apple worth $2.3 trillion, Microsoft $2 trillion, Amazon $1.8 trillion, Google 1.8 trillion, Facebook $1 trillion even that over priced pile of poop Tesla came close to being valued at $1 trillion, we are definitely in a bubble, you only need to go onto youtube and watch the to the moon videos of Cathy Wood, literally everything's going to go to the moon because her barely out of puberty Quants decree it to be so. This is clearly a major warning sign of a unsustainable trend when indices are ruled by such a small clique of tech stocks where the greatest similarity is with the dot come bubble in terms of the valuation of stocks that actually produce revenues unlike the largely worthless dot com's of that time.
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, September 09, 2021
Stock Market September Smackdown Coming Next? / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Monica_Kingsley
S&P 500 declined, with tech holding up best – the volatility spike is here as real economy deceleration is joined by Evergrande fears. Both paper and real assets took it on the chin, and yields together with the dollar rose. As for greenback and Treasuries upcoming price path:
(…) Treasury yields moved up, but don‘t expect to see them gallop just yet. Slow and steady, orderly grind higher is the most likely trajectory ahead, and even that won‘t propel the dollar higher, or keep it really afloat. Greenback‘s support is at 91.70, and I‘m looking for it to give in over the nearest weeks, which carries tremendous implications for commodity and precious metals trades. And for risk assets in general.
Precious metals, copper and oil bore the brunt of souring sentiment, with cryptocurrencies joining in the slide later through the day. But have the material facts changed, or all we got was a whiff of risk-off? September is likely to be volatile, it seasonally is, and August had been a surprisingly calm month. You know what they say about periods of lower volatility giving way to those of higher readings… Time to buckle up.
Tuesday, September 07, 2021
US Dollar Upswing, S&P 500 and Nasdaq Outlook / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2021
By: Monica_Kingsley
S&P 500 didn‘t get hammered on the NFPs miss – stocks did reasonably well, saved by the daily rush into tech. Volatility didn‘t spike throughout the week at all, and credit markets maintain their risk-on posture. Still, the real economy deceleration made itself heard, pushing back Fed taper speculations even further from September. Jerome Powell wanted to see more jobs data, and would want even more so now. I wouldn‘t be really surprised if no taper was announced in November.
Markets are thus far unconcerned about a policy mistake in letting inflation get entrenched even more – Treasury yields moved up, but don‘t expect to see them gallop just yet. Slow and steady, orderly grind higher is the most likely trajectory ahead, and even that won‘t propel the dollar higher, or keep it really afloat. Greenback‘s support is at 91.70, and I‘m looking for it to give in over the nearest weeks, which carries tremendous implications for commodity and precious metals trades. And for risk assets in general.
Precious metals thus far remain tame, and should continue chugging along just fine. Commodities such as copper and oil won‘t be derailed, but might panic temporarily in case of really bad incoming data. Copper‘s continued underperformance of the commodity index highlights the growth woes of the day, and even if the red metal might look to some as ready to roll over, the positive stockpile situation should cushion potential downside. In short, I‘m not looking for a meaningful disturbance to the commodities bull, as the inventory replenishment cycle has far from run its course, and inflation is bound to get hotter this year still.
Monday, September 06, 2021
A Mixed Stock Market - Still / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Andre_Gratian
Current Position of the Market
SPX Long-term trend: There is some evidence that we are still in the bull market which started in 2009 and which could continue into 2021 until major cycles take over, and it ends. A move up to ~4500 is possible before the current bull market makes a final top and SPX corrects into its next major cycle low due in 2023.
SPX Intermediate trend: SPX correction underway.
Analysis of the short-term trend is done daily with the help of hourly charts. They are important adjuncts to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which determine longer market trends.
Monday, September 06, 2021
What‘s Not to Love About Crypto Market Fireworks / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2021
By: Monica_Kingsley
Another weak selling attempt in stocks – are these setting up for tomorrow‘s NFPs volatility? It sure appears so, but buy the dip mentality looks likely to emerge victorious. The current period of low VIX will probably give way to a brief spike, which within bull markets is usually resolved with another upswing.
No matter the momentary hesitation in the credit markets, where we‘re moving two steps forward, one step backwards. Or rather two steps backwards, as can be seen this week. Risk off is still with us as key commodities aren‘t surging, leaving yesterday‘s silver upswing a little suspect on a daily basis. Copper and oil are struggling somewhat at the moment as well, taking (a bit too much) time as the dollar is only modestly declining and yields aren‘t rising.
The current trading environment favors still risk off, sectoral rotations are tame, and inflation expectations continue basing before money printing becomes an ever bigger problem for 2022 and the years ahead. Ethereum keeps doing wonders, and Bitcoin is joining in – finally, as expected. Hope you‘re riding open profitable positions too!
Sunday, September 05, 2021
S&P 500 Rallies To New All-Time Highs – Are The Markets About To Break Higher? / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Chris_Vermeulen
The S&P 500 rallied to new highs early in September after the US Federal Reserve statements indicating continued support of the US economy and easy money policies. It appears the markets have fallen back into bullish trending mode which may continue throughout September and into the end of 2021 through the Christmas Rally phase.
Q3:2021 Earnings & The 2021 Christmas Rally Are Pending
Although we can see a new, more moderate, price trend taking place on this S&P 500 (ES) Weekly Chart, below, we are starting to see a new rally phase setting up as traders push prices higher to close out Q3:2021 in expectation of continued strong earnings.
Read full article... Read full article...