Analysis Topic: Stock & Financial Markets

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Sunday, December 18, 2016

Santa Claus to Extend Trump Stock Market Rally? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016

By: Brad_Gudgeon

In this article, I’m going to point to reasons why I believe this rally has some more juice left in it.  I also want to warn that early next year, what I thought would happen in November 2016 should happen in March/April 2017, and that is a 14+% drop.

The Trump phenomenon seems to have caused the normal cycles to misbehave and extend. After further examination into Primary Wave 4, I have come to the conclusion that I need to revise the timing of the final Millennial Wave top out to a possible 3 years (that IF is Intermediate Wave Z of Primary Wave 4 extends out to the end of 2018 instead of year end 2017).

Saturday, December 17, 2016

Stocks Just Triggered a Major “Topping” Signal… Next Up is the Bloodbath / Stock-Markets / Stock Market Crash

By: Graham_Summers

The markets are priming for a major inflection point.

I cannot remember a time when investors were more bullish. The Dow is currently more overbought (based on the 14 day relative strength index) than at any point in the last 20 years.

Saturday, December 17, 2016

The 70-year US Treasury Bond Market Cycle and SPX Stocks Bull Market / Stock-Markets / US Bonds

By: Tony_Caldaro

The market started the week at SPX 2260. After a slightly lower open on Monday the SPX rallied to the current uptrend high at 2278 on Tuesday. On Wednesday the FED raised rates for the first time in a year and the market pulled back to SPX 2248. Then a rally on Thursday to SPX 2272 was followed by a smaller pullback into a Friday 2258 close. For the week the SPX/DOW were mixed, and the NDX/NAZ were mixed. Economics reports were plentiful and ended the week slightly positive. On the downtick: export/import prices, industrial production, capacity utilization, housing starts, build permits, plus the treasury budget increased. On the uptick: retail sales, the CPI/PPI, NY/Philly FED, the NAHB, the WLEI, plus weekly jobless claims declined. Next week’s reports will be highlighted by Q3 GDP, leading indicators and the PCE index. Best to your pre-holiday week!

Saturday, December 17, 2016

Stock Market Flirts With Dow 20k New All Time High / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016

By: Nadeem_Walayat

The Dow flirted with 20k this week, hitting a high of 19,966, literally within a few points of claiming the historic 20k level along its relentless bull market path. If one looks back to not just the start of 2016, but, well right up until AFTER the US polls closed on November 8th and beyond then its not just a case of Dow 20k could never happen but that the Dow 'should' by now be trading at well BELOW 15k. Whilst a few of the perma crowd had completely flipped imagining the Dow could trade down to as low as 6k! I suppose that's where the Dow needs to trade for some guys and gals just to BREAKEVEN after year after year of beartish rhetoric.

Saturday, December 17, 2016

Financial Markets Award Trump Nobel Prize in Economics / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2016

By: David_Galland

Dear Parader,

As today we are headed north to spend Christmas with the family, Jake Weber, the invaluable senior researcher of our premium Compelling Investments Quantified (CIQ) service has kindly offered to fill in for this edition.

In his article, he delves into the economic and political challenges President Trump is facing and scans for any red flags flapping in the breeze.

On the topic of CIQ, we maintain a laser-like focus on finding great companies that sell below their intrinsic value—the only proven path to successful long-term investment.

Friday, December 16, 2016

The Stock Market Level To Watch / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016

By: Anthony_Cherniawski

Dana Lyons (Tumblr.com) makes an interesting observation about a little-known index known as the Value Line Geometric Composite Index. In his article, he draws a straight line (red) at 500.00. and says. “This far and no further.”

He misses several points, which I would like to address. First, by drawing a horizontal bar, he misses the fact that the XVG was 27 points under it in 2000 and 23 points above it in 2015. By drawing a line that is peak-to-peak, you get a different picture. In fact, what comes to mind is an Orthodox Broadening Top (I added the lower trendline to complete the formation). This is a slight variation of what you see in the DJIA and SPX.

Friday, December 16, 2016

Trump Rally and Irrelevant Dow Theory; What’s Next Stock Market Crash / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016

By: Sol_Palha

Uncertainty and mystery are energies of life. Don't let them scare you unduly, for they keep boredom at bay and spark creativity. R. I. Fitzhenry

In September we penned a second article in the Alternative Dow theory series, titled “Dow theory no longer relevant-Better Alternative exists where we stated that the Dow theory as it stood was no longer relevant.  Here is a brief excerpt from that article.

The transports topped out in November of 2014, and according to the Dow theory this is a big negative;  the Dow industrials should have followed suit. Instead, the Dow soared higher paying no heed to this theory proving to a large degree that this theory has lost its value. After all, it is a theory and the definition of a theory is “a supposition or a system of ideas intended to explain something, especially one based on general principles independent of the thing to be explained.”

Friday, December 16, 2016

Will Stock Market VIX Spike Today? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016

By: Anthony_Cherniawski

Good Morning!

The SPX Premarket is up, as would be expected for the close of index options at today’s open. Volatility may spike at the open as options traders settle their trades. What happens after the institutions leave the scene?

Friday, December 16, 2016

The Fed is BEGGING China to Crash the Markets / Stock-Markets / Financial Crash

By: Graham_Summers

What is Janet Yellen thinking?

As the Fed wound down its QE program in 2014, the $USD hit liftoff. It has since hovered in the mid- to upper-‘90s.

Friday, December 16, 2016

How Trump Could Blow Up The Entire Stocks Bull Market / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016

By: John_Mauldin

At first glance, strictly from the point of view of the short-term impact they will have on the markets, what's not to like about the Trump/Ryan/Republican tax proposals?

Trump is proposing a top corporate tax rate of 15% , and the Ryan plan essentially calls for 20%. The proposed corporate tax reduction will really have a far greater impact than any of the proposed personal income tax cuts.

Thursday, December 15, 2016

Stock Market Sell Signals Being Generated / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016

By: Anthony_Cherniawski

SPX has exceeded the trendline, as anticipated. It may find max resistance at or near 2266.00, the 61.8% Fib retracement.

The next decline may fall between 60 and 100 points, challenging the Wave [iv] low or possibly the 50-day Moving Average. If so, the decline may slip into high gear.

This may be an ideal aggressive short entry.

Thursday, December 15, 2016

SPX to Mop up Wave 2 Retracement / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016

By: Anthony_Cherniawski

The SPX Premarket is lower, but hasn’t broken yesterday’s low as I write. That leaves the possibility of a second go at the trendline at the open.

ZeroHedge reports, “This morning the world awakes to a landscape in which markets are frantically rushing to catch up to a suddenly hawkish Fed which not only hiked for the second time in a decade but, as per yesterday's Fed statement and Yellen press conference, realized it has been behind the curve all along, and the result has been a spike in the dollar across virtually all currency pairs with the USDJPY surging above 118.40, coupled with a jump in bond yields around the globe as bond (the US 10 Year is trading at 2.64%, the highest since September 2014) as traders dump any hint of duration.”

Wednesday, December 14, 2016

Warning: Fed Interest Rate Hike Could Trigger Stock, Financial Markets Meltdown / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2016

By: Graham_Summers

The big day has finally arrived.

The Fed adjourns its two day FOMC meeting today. At 2PM Fed Chair Janet Yellen is expected to announce that the Fed is raising rates again.

If the Fed does hike as 100% of analysts expect, it will be the first hike in 12 months and only the second in this tightening cycle.

Wednesday, December 14, 2016

Stock Market Orthodox Broadening Top / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016

By: Anthony_Cherniawski

SPX is clearly under its Orthodox Broadening Top trendline this morning. This is the first step and may be considered an aggressive sell signal (with stops).

Wednesday, December 14, 2016

Stock Market Exciting Day Ahead / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016

By: Anthony_Cherniawski

SPX nearly maxed out yesterday as it approached 2285.92, which is the limit of this wave structure. That’s not to say that it absolutely cannot change its form again. However, we’ll address that issue if it comes. Right now, it is overdue for a decline and a measure of the decline will tell us what may come after.

The Premarket is modestly down. There may not be a lot of activity until after the FOMC announcement at 2:00 pm.

Wednesday, December 14, 2016

Stock Market Very Strong Session Despite Profit-Taking / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016

By: Harry_Boxer

The stock market indices had very nice big gains until the last few minutes when they sold off, especially on the Nasdaq 100, which gave up about 25 points off its big gains today, still finishing up at 4935, with a good trade and double top around 4960 by midsession, before the late pullback.

Net on the day, the Dow was up 114.78 at 19,911.21, a new all-time at 19,953. The S&P 500 was up 14.76 at 2271.72. The Nasdaq 100 was up 61.54 at 4935.82.

Tuesday, December 13, 2016

Stock Market Waiting for the FOMC? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016

By: Anthony_Cherniawski

Good Morning!

The SPX Premarket is higher, but the futures have not made a new high. Yesterday’s decline may be impulsive, but the test is whether a new high is made today or not. In addition, the Wave structure appears to be complete as of yesterday morning. We may see some residual bullishness at the open, but the jury is still pondering the verdict as of now.

Tuesday, December 13, 2016

Nasdaq Leads Stock Market Lower... / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016

By: Jack_Steiman

The market bulls are still in control of things, but we all know that there is this one gigantic red flag out there that will come into play at some point. The thing is, we don't know when that will happen, because there is no formula to tell us when it's coming, since every bull market is different. We can look back at history as a guide, but when folks do, it doesn't usually work out very well. The reason is simple. Nothing repeats perfectly, even though we'd like to believe it does. For instance, over the past year-plus we saw 35% on the bull/bear spread start a correction, but we also saw 46% start one.

Monday, December 12, 2016

Stock Market Top?, Sucker’s Play / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016

By: Brad_Gudgeon

The current rally from November 4 to December 12 (if indeed it was the top) was Minuette Wave Y of Minute Y. Minute Wave Y (of Minor Wave B) was a wxy inverted, irregular and strong bearish flat. Elliott called these B waves or irregular tops. The Trump rally is basically a "sucker's play". The internals of this rally are sick and very selective; the McClellan Summation Index is miles away from confirming it; the Dow Jones Industrials has far exceeded the SPX, which has far exceeded the NASDAQ creating a case of an inter-market bearish divergence. We also have a huge On-Balance-Volume divergence.

Monday, December 12, 2016

The Bank of Japan Has Primed the Markets For a Crash / Stock-Markets / Financial Crash

By: Graham_Summers

This is getting outright ridiculous.

The Bank of Japan is now depreciating the Yen against the $USD on an almost hourly basis.

This is the Yen carry trade. And it’s the SINGLE BIGGEST DRIVER OF THE MARKETS TODAY. As you can see, in the last two weeks, the S&P 500 is following this pair almost tick for tick.