Analysis Topic: Stock & Financial Markets

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Thursday, September 08, 2011

Stock Market Shorts May Prey On Serious Problems In Europe / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2011

By: Chris_Ciovacco

Bridgewater Associates is the world’s largest macro hedge fund firm, meaning they have a good handle on the problems in Europe. Some excerpts from a Bloomberg article on the firm’s current outlook:

These days, the view from Bridgewater is dour. They divide the world into two groups: developed debtor nations that are deleveraging and emerging creditor countries that are leveraging up. After years of overspending financed by borrowing, the former are being forced to lower their debt relative to their income levels, constraining spending levels and employment gains.

Thursday, September 08, 2011

Stocks Bear Market Rally May Not have Ended / Stock-Markets / Stocks Bear Market

By: Tim_Wood

The post March 2009 closing high for the Industrials occurred on April 29th at 12,810.54 and for the Transports that high occurred on July 7th at 5,618.25.  This in turn left a Dow theory non-confirmation in place.  This was then followed by a close below the March 2011 secondary low points on August 4th.  As a result of this close, a Dow theory primary trend change occurred.   This is the first such occurrence since the bear market rally out of the March 2009 lows began and I do not take this development lightly.  But, at the same time, based on other technical factors, I also have to question this trend change.

Thursday, September 08, 2011

Stock Market Sentiment At Extremes...Nearly Inverted... / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2011

By: Jack_Steiman

I started speaking about this phenomenon last week when the bull-bear spread got down to 4.3%. It was 7.6% the week before, and I must admit, I was surprised to see it drop to that 4.3% level. Then today the sentiment figures got even more bearish on the spread. Only a 1.1% spread between bulls and bears with the bulls at 38.7% and the bears at 37.6%. When levels get this low, and it is unusual that they do, getting sustainable downside action is not easy for the bears any longer. That doesn't mean there won't be down days because, of course, there will be. Some will be nasty. It just suggests that sustainable downside action will become far more difficult as the bear trade is full. When the bears are all in it gets too tough to kill the market. No different than when the bulls go all in. Upside action becomes more difficult. The bull-bear spread can invert negatively but that is rare.

Wednesday, September 07, 2011

Stock Market Crash 1929, Mystery Unraveled? / Stock-Markets / Financial Crash

By: Submissions

Wim Grommen writes: In the twenties of the last century the world, and especially the United States, experienced an economical high. As a result of this, share and stock prices rose to unprecedented heights, beyond reasonable values. The underlying economy had decreased in strength without this being reflected on the stock exchange. Investors were euphoric and stock prices were forced up against all economic logic. (1)

Wednesday, September 07, 2011

EURO Volatility and S&P Risk / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2011

By: Capital3X

EUR/USD correction from 1.4550 on 29 Aug 2011 has now extended to 1.3960 levels on 6 September 2011, correction of 600 pips. We did forecast for such a move given the weakening fundamentals in EU zone and the pickup in volatility. Refer our EURO volatility charts

Wednesday, September 07, 2011

The Fed's Twisted Plan / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2011

By: PhilStockWorld

While world markets sell off, and President Obama and Congress wrangle over some form of job-creating legislation, the Federal Reserve is busy with its own problems as it attempts to deal with stubbornly high and persistent unemployment. Expectations for additional quantitative easing (QE) are running very high, but there is the possibility that the Fed may undertake a different kind of QE program, designed to provide stimulus without actually putting more money into the system.

Wednesday, September 07, 2011

How to Find Investment Opportunities from Blood, Debt and Fears / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2011

By: John_Derrick

My long-time friend and mentor Seymour Schulich forwarded an email to me that puts today’s U.S. government debt mountain startlingly into context. By removing several zeros, one can place the debt situation in terms we all can understand—that of a family’s income and expenses.

Tuesday, September 06, 2011

Stock Market Glass More Half Empty Than Half Full / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2011

By: Richard_Shaw

The battle between bulls and bears is tense right now (as the attached cover image from this week's Barrons illustrates)

WHAT WE SAID BEFORE:

We have previously provided charts and data supporting the Bull case, showing high and growing earnings with historically "normal" range valuation multiples, at the same time that bonds offer little in terms of yield and must eventually go down when rates must eventually go up -- with many stocks (even the S&P 500 index) providing dividend yields competitive with 10-year Treasuries.

Tuesday, September 06, 2011

Stock Market Odds Favour More Declines Ahead / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2011

By: Andre_Gratian

SPX: Very Long-term trend - The very-long-term cycles are down and, if they make their lows when expected, there will be another steep and prolonged decline into about 2014.

SPX: Intermediate trend - The bull market which started on March 2009 at 667 appears to have ended at 1370. It is unclear if the first intermediate decline of the new bear market is over.

Tuesday, September 06, 2011

Logical Case for a 49% Stock Market Crash / Bear Market / Stock-Markets / Stocks Bear Market

By: Chris_Ciovacco

With an apparent acceleration of the debt crisis in Europe and a prolonged budget fight set to continue in the United States, we have bear market drivers in place from a fundamental perspective. On Monday, two-year Greek notes traded at 50% of face value; the yield on 10-year Italian bonds rose another 27 basis points. Angela Merkel’s party lost weekend elections in Germany, which brings into question public support for more bailouts in Europe.

Tuesday, September 06, 2011

The Stock Market Black Monday the Public Doesn’t Know About / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2011

By: Chris_Vermeulen

I hope everyone had a fantastic Labor Day weekend. I truly enjoyed myself and was able to have some creativity with my 18 month daughter. I got some new office chairs last week and I finally had time to assemble them during the rainy and windy black Monday here in Canada… Just like a child on their birthday, I tossed the chair parts aside and played with the large boxes with Mirabelle.

Tuesday, September 06, 2011

Europe and Asia Stock Markets Labor Day Sell Off / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2011

By: George_Maniere

           For years, Labor Day weekend was a time to take a break from work and celebrate the fruits of our labor. Sadly last weekend was a time when millions of Americans wished they had a job to take a break from.  If you were awake or remotely paying attention last Friday September 2nd The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released the August 2001 jobs report and in a word - it was abysmal. The report showed that no jobs had been created in August. If this statistic was not so sad it would be laughable. What is even more telling then this report was that the prior two months had been revised down and I expect next month for the same thing to play out. The report will be revised down from zero to a negative number. There is no fudging the numbers. The jobs market is getting worse and fast.

Monday, September 05, 2011

Charts and Economic Data Point to a Bloody September for Stock Markets / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2011

By: Capital3X

September is known to slay the mighty and yet it may just be the best opportunity of all months to make strong returns if one is able to realign portfolio to ride the momentum.

We will analyze charts from the Treasury market, S&P 500 Index, Volatility indices and AUD/USD to understand the market positioning. The data over the last couple of weeks has been negative the least to say.

Sunday, September 04, 2011

Stock Market Big Picture / Stock-Markets / Stocks Bear Market

By: Tony_Caldaro

What started off as a promising week for the equity markets ends mixed in the US: SPX/DOW -0.3%, and the NDX/NAZ +0.2%. In between, the market gapped up monday morning from friday’s SPX 1177 close. Then hit SPX 1231 on wednesday only to gap down friday ending the week at SPX 1174. Economic reports continued to be slanted to the downside. On the upswing: personal income/spending, PCE prices, the Case-Shiller index, factory orders, auto sales, the m1-multiplier, and jobless claims improved. On the downswing: pending home sales, construction spending the Chicago PMI, ISM manufacturing, the ADP index, monthly Payrolls, the monetary base, the WLEI, and consumer confidence plunged. Asian markets gained 1.9%, European markets gained 1.7%, the Commodity equity group gained 3.7%, and the DJ World index rose 1.6%. Next week we have the FED’s Beige book, ISM services, and Consumer credit.

Sunday, September 04, 2011

No Jobs.....No Surprise... / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2011

By: Jack_Steiman

Even though there was supposed to be job creation near 100K, I don't think anyone should be shocked by the reality of absolutely no job creation. When we study the important economic reports that have come in recently, we see an economy that has consistently been heading lower towards recessionary numbers. The ISM Manufacturing Report stuck at 50 for the past two months. Anything below 50 is recessionary (contraction). The fact that we've spent two months at the save place after recently being as high as 61 can't be looked upon in a positive fashion. We've taken a plunge down in the past two months after stabilizing a bit, and now we seem to be on the road to further down side action economically. The saddest part being that there seems to be no way to cure what ills us all. Sure, the fed could give the economy of this country another blast of QE action, but we all know that the past two QE programs did nothing other than to create more inflation for those who simply cannot afford that type of outcome. Most of the fed governors are now totally against this type of program and have let it be known they'd vote against it if Mr. Bernanke wants it instituted.

Sunday, September 04, 2011

Why Economic Recession and Stocks Bear Market May Be Inescapable! / Stock-Markets / Stocks Bear Market

By: Sy_Harding

Note to Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke:

It’s happening, Ben. Your assurances of an economic recovery in the 2nd half are in the wind, blown away by the continuing string of terrible economic reports. The next recession is probably already underway!

Friday, September 02, 2011

Gold and Portfolio Asset Allocation for Today's Financial Reality / Stock-Markets / Gold and Silver 2011

By: Nick_Barisheff

Asset allocation is one of the most crucial aspects of building a diversified and sustainable portfolio that not only preserves and grows wealth, but also weathers the twists and turns that ever-changing market conditions can throw at it. However, while the average advisor or investor spends a great deal of time carefully analyzing and picking the right stocks or sectors, the basic and primary task of asset allocation is often overlooked.

Friday, September 02, 2011

September Could Be Worse Than August for Stock Market Performance / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2011

By: Money_Morning

Kerri Shannon writes: Investors beware - the dismal days of September market performance are here.

September notoriously often leaves markets in negative territory. Since the start of the Dow Jones Industrial Average in 1896, the index has lost an average of 1.07% in September, with a 0.71% average gain for all other months.

Friday, September 02, 2011

The Panic of 1907" vs. the "Debt Crisis" of 2011 / Stock-Markets / Financial Crash

By: EWI

Those Steely-Eyes of J.P. Morgan: Could They Help Us Today?

If "legendary Wall Street figure" ever described anyone, it was turn-of-the-last-century financier J.P. Morgan. You can throw in "bigger than life" to boot.

Friday, September 02, 2011

Credibility Crash 2011 / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2011

By: HRA_Advisory

Things turned hard in the markets since the last issue, and not in a good way.   A lot of bad news has been priced into the market.  At this point only time will tell whether that has impacted people hard enough to tip the slow growing developed countries into recession.  Whichever way things go, it’s going to be close.