Analysis Topic: Stock & Financial Markets
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.Tuesday, September 27, 2011
Extreme Moves Leave Markets in Rare Territory / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2011
If you didn't pay much attention to global markets last week, here's what you missed...fears that the global economy is dangerously close to a recession due to the financial crisis in the eurozone and flatlining growth in the U.S. sent assets of all shapes and sizes into a tailspin.
Among the E7 and G7 countries, only two markets increased for the week--Pakistan (up 2.2 percent) and Japan (up 0.5 percent). Russia (down 12.2 percent) and Indonesia (down 10.7 percent) were the leaders in the opposite direction. The average return for the 14 countries was a 5.7 percent decline.
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Monday, September 26, 2011
A Strong Dollar Means Investor Opportunity / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2011
The Fed has been dumping billions of dollars into the US markets each and every trading day since late 2010. Because of this massive money creation the dollar became much weaker.
Movements in the dollar influence commodity prices, commodity prices influence bonds, which then influence stocks:
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Monday, September 26, 2011
Markets to Get Crushed, Gold to Soar / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2011
Markets got crushed last week as the main catalysts of economic collapse continued to converge and interact to eradicate risk capital appetite. Both the Fed and European Central Banks are exuding a “deer in the headlights” kind of paralysis. Their only strategy appears to be finding new ways to load up the countries wallowing in debt with more debt at lower rates but for longer durations. Meanwhile, the assets they demand as collateral are the only ones worth anything. Thus, the Greeks are getting raped, and nothing worth anyting in Greece will be owned by Greeks.
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Monday, September 26, 2011
How to Survive a Stock Market Crash / Stock-Markets / Financial Crash
David Zeiler writes: After a barrage of bad news -- a disappointing move by the U.S. Federal Reserve and a couple of really bad days for the world's key stock markets last week -- it would be understandable if you wanted to dump all your investments, stick the cash in a duffel bag, and move to the hills.
As an investor, that would be the biggest mistake you could make, says Money Morning Chief Investment Strategist Keith Fitz-Gerald.
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Monday, September 26, 2011
Euro Crisis, Too Big To Bail? / Stock-Markets / Credit Crisis 2011
During the first financial crisis whereby the like of Lehman Brothers failed we heard the war cry ‘Too Big To Fail’ trotted out by our political masters. As the next financial crisis approaches we might hear a new mantra; ‘Too Big To Bail’ as one or more of the larger banking institutions enters into bankruptcy.
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Monday, September 26, 2011
Short China and the Not So Great Depression / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2011
Since February, I have called the market trend as a sideways pattern. This kind of trend dictates a move out of equities for the small active retail investors. I reiterate that call now and see far more risk to the downside than reward to the upside.
I note that anyone moving to cash as of my February call would have given away no upside profits and would, at this point in time, have been protected from a more than 10% loss.
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Monday, September 26, 2011
Stock Market Intermediate Support Breached / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2011
SPX: Very Long-term trend - The very-long-term cycles are down and, if they make their lows when expected, there will be another steep and prolonged decline into 2014 after this bull market has run its course.
SPX: Intermediate trend - Back to square one, with a good possibility that the 3-yr cycle will bring a new low. It already has for some other indices.
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Monday, September 26, 2011
Buy SPXU, and Watch AGQ, SLV and PSLV for Once in a Lifetime Chance / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2011
Pro Shares Ultra Pro S&P 500 (UPRO) is a triple leveraged fund that seeks a 300% return on the performance of the S&P for a single day. Conversely, The Pro Shares Ultra Pro Short S&P 500 (SPXU) seeks a triple leverage or 300% return on the inverse performance of the S&P 500. If you believe as I do that we are setting up for a leg down on the S&P then SPXU is the best way to profit from this trade.
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Sunday, September 25, 2011
Economic Collapse, Financial Manipulation and the Dollar Crisis / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2011
The question plays out on three fronts. England quietly is immersed in its own financial problems, churning out their version of quantitative easing, as the US FOMC meeting rises in the distance for two days this time.
Will we get the twist? Of course we will. If we do not the bottom will fall out. That will signify the issuance of more funds plus what is needed to purchase some 80% of Treasury securities, or about another $850 billion.
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Sunday, September 25, 2011
Year-To-Date Performance of Various Financial Assets / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2011
Check out the Treasuries in the second chart, particularly the 30 Year Bond.
If the Fed had not been targeting assets to create some of these price moves it would be the best case for deflation which I have seen thus far.
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Sunday, September 25, 2011
Bull and Bear Market Cases for Gold, Silver and Stocks / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2011
After gold and silver got hit hard last week, some of you probably wonder if that was the end of the 10 year+ bull market for precious metals.
In this article, we will describe both the Bull & Bear Cases for Gold, Silver and Stocks and we will also make some interesting comparisons.
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Sunday, September 25, 2011
Changing Markets Risk Perception Across Multiple Asset Classes / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2011
This week saw a lot of technical damage across multiple asset classes as demonstrated by the charts below. The biggest shift though appears to be that of perceived risk. In the past bad news was good news as it would bring further accommodative monetary policy such as QE1 and QE2. Market participants always believed the Bernanke put was alive and well and equity values would be defended. In other words the perception of risk was less severe.
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Sunday, September 25, 2011
Stock Market Crash or Buying Opportunity Ahead? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2011
Dear Investor,
"Lost decade."
The phrase originally applied to Japan's stock market. Yet in terms of depth and scale, it more accurately describes today's markets and economy in the United States.
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Sunday, September 25, 2011
Stocks Are Not Supposed to Fall in the 3rd Year of a Presidential Term / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2011
While I dont take much stock in things such as Super Bowl indicators or hem line indicators in terms of giving us a tell on where the economy or market is heading, one quite prescient indicator has been a simple one - the third year of a presidential term indicator. Generally, as a president heads to a re-election year he tries to push through some beneficial packages to help stoke the economy - which often leads to artificial bumps in GDP and profits - hence stocks follow. But in this case, we've been on massive stimulants for years in a row.
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Sunday, September 25, 2011
Stocks, Silver, Gold and Bonds, Recession / Depression Until 2016? / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2011
Let’s start with an update of an article I wrote on July 20th 2011. If the pattern isn’t broken soon, this could mean we are about to see 2008 all over again, and silver could drop another 50% from here:
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Sunday, September 25, 2011
Bull Bear Market Phases, Dow Theory Update / Stock-Markets / Stocks Bear Market
According to Dow theory, both bull and bear markets have three phases. Between each of these phases there are important counter-trend moves. Our Dow theory founding fathers explained that these counter-trend moves are misleading and tend to be taken as a continuation of the previous long-term secular trend. Based on the longer-term phasing and value aspects of Dow theory, the evidence continues to suggest that the last great bull market began at the December 1974 low and peaked in October 2007. This data also continues to suggest that the decline into the March 2009 low was merely the Phase I decline and that the rally out of the March 2009 low serves to separate Phase I from Phase II of a much longer-term secular bear market.
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Sunday, September 25, 2011
Choppy Stock Market May Bottom Soon / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2011
After some big gains last week and a SPX 1216 close, the market gave it all back this week with a SPX 1136 close. Economic reports were light, but still mostly to the downside. On the positive were building permits, existing home sales, the monetary base and a downtick in weekly jobless claims. On the negative were declining housing starts, FHFA/NAHB housing prices, leading indicators, excess reserves and the WLEI. The big news for the week was the ‘sterilized’ Operation Twist. A $400 bln program to purchase long term debt with short term debt. The market apparently wanted more liquidity in the form of outright purchases. For the week the SPX/DOW were -6.45%, and the NDX/NAZ were -4.85%. Asian markets lost 5.0%, Europeans markets lost 5.2%, the Commodity equity group lost 10.3%, and the DJ World index dropped 7.7%. Next week will be highlighted by Q2 GDP, the Chicago PMI and Case-Shiller.
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Saturday, September 24, 2011
No Shots Left in the Locker The Big Plunge / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2011
While the Fed’s Open Market Committee (FOMC) promised more monetary easing on Wednesday, the announcement was overshadowed by an exceedingly gloomy report on the state of the economy. The official statement warned of “significant downside risks to the economic outlook, including strains in global financial markets.” That’s all it took to send shares tumbling as jittery investors jettisoned stocks and fled to the safety of risk-free US Treasuries. The Dow finished down 283 points on the day while the bloodbath spread overseas to Asian and European markets.
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Saturday, September 24, 2011
Stock Market Rough Week...... / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2011
And that's putting it mildly if you ask me. The market spent little time printing up ticks, and lots of time moving lower. It was a near crash on Thursday with the Nasdaq down nearly 90 points, and the Dow down nearly 400 points. Intraday it was down 525. Lots of bad news from overseas, especially from Greece, along with bad economic reports right here in the United States, really sparked the selling. It appears more and more as if we're headed for a global recession if we're not there already. Many of the reports coming in suggest were likely there right now with the markets action saying that is the case.
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Saturday, September 24, 2011
The Perfect Storm in a Kondratieff Long Wave Winter / Stock-Markets / Cycles Analysis
Crashing global stock markets, debt defaults, overproduction, falling prices, tumbling interest rates, global debt deleveraging, and the clear necessity for austerity, they are all classic long wave forces now in full tilt, producing the perfect storm in a Kondratieff long wave winter. Only long wave theory explains the economic and financial events now unfolding daily in the global economy and financial markets.
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