Monday, March 11, 2019
US Presidential Cycle and the Stock Market - Video / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The US Presidential cycle pattern has proved REMARKABLY ACCURATE in terms of flagging future stock market price action as an except from my last in depth look at stocks illustrates:
Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, March 11, 2019
Stock Market Elliott Wave Analysis Trend Forercast / Stock-Markets / Elliott Wave Theory
By: Nadeem_Walayat
ELLIOTT WAVES
Where elliott wave is concerned I like to keep things very simple which is why I don't adhere to the many tenants of elliott wave theory as for me, EW is just a another technical tool. Here's what my previous elliott wave interpretation which correctly expected a rally to Dow 27k into October 2018 that was virtually spot on.
Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, March 11, 2019
Chinese Economic Data Shakes the Global Stock Markets / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Chris_Vermeulen
March 8th, 2019 may gain some level of infamy over the next few decades. There were two big numbers released on this day, the current Chinese economic data and the US Jobs data for February 2019. Both numbers fell drastically lower than analysts expected and the global stock markets dropped in pre-market trading by more than 1%. Yet, something very interesting transpired through the trading day – a recovery rally.
The Chinese economic data was particularly devastating. It leads our researchers to ask a very critical question, “is this going to be an orderly contraction or is this contraction going to extend into more chaos?” Our research team believes the economic contraction in China will extend out into much of Asia and nations participating in the Belt Road Initiative (BRI) over the next 3~6+ months. We believe a natural progression of “protectionist processes” will begin to take place throughout many of these nations as the money spigot from China dries up. We believe this credit contraction and economic downturn will result in an extended repositioning of priorities, assets, and valuations throughout most of SE Asia and India. It could extend into certain areas in Europe and Arabic nations.
Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, March 11, 2019
The Fed Is Playing a Dangerous Game / Interest-Rates / US Federal Reserve Bank
By: John_Mauldin
Two months ago, Fed Chair Jerome Powell set off a market panic.
He suggested the FOMC would do what it thinks is right and let asset prices go where they may.
They promised at least two if not three more rate hikes in 2019. The stock market fell out of bed.
Fast forward to now. The Fed has given up its tightening dreams and might even loosen policy. It is even (gasp!) losing its fear of inflation.
The problem is that preventing small “crises” on a regular basis eventually causes a very large crisis.
Monday, March 11, 2019
Is the Stock Market Trend From December 2018 Over? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: WavePatternTraders
The recent price action we have seen this past week, potentially has the makings of a reversal in progress. Some world stock markets are showing an outside weekly bar reversal pattern, which is a strong pattern to support further weakness.Looking at a number of highly correlated markets, they are showing a very similar pattern. I favor an impulse wave (5 wave decline) is in progress, an up-down sequence is still needed to develop a 5 wave decline from their respective swing highs. If we can count 5 waves to end an impulse wave from last weeks high, a bounce thereafter in 3 waves would support a move lower and offer a selling opportunity.
Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, March 11, 2019
The Stock Market Has Called the Fed’s Bluff, What’s Next? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Graham_Summers
The Fed is truly in a panic.
Let’s take a big picture perspective of the last year or so.
Throughout 2018, the Fed claimed it could normalize policy (raise rates and shrink its balance sheet). Heck, the Fed didn’t just claim this, it was supremely confident of it.
Indeed, the Fed was still pushing this narrative as late as August, when most of the Emerging Market space and many economically sensitive asset classes had already collapsed 30%.
Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, March 11, 2019
Turkey Holiday Bazaar Extreme Jewelry Price Haggling - Fethiye Market / Personal_Finance / Shopping
By: Anika_Walayat
If your going to be holidaying in Turkey this year and are anywhere near the Dalaman / Fethiye area then you MUST visit the Fethiye Tuesday market! It is huge! Vibrant, bustling with variety, Turkish culture in action with plenty of bargains to be had if your upto the haggling challenge. It's a experience in its out right and its FREE, apart from the shopping. You get to see a side of the world that you don't usually see, full of tourists from all over the world of all types and ages, a true melting pot.
The market sells virtually everything under the sun, food, fruit, sweets, electronics, bags, all sorts of bags, trinkets, shoes, jewellery and clothes, tons of clothes, from the mainstay for tourists t-shirt's tons and tons of t-shirts to the local traditional garments.
Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, March 10, 2019
Are You Ready for the Next Big Move in Gold? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: Chris_Vermeulen
If you were following our research, you would have known that Gold had reached a short-term peak in February. On Feb 19th the day gold posted a huge gain for the day and everyone was bullish and feeling like million bucks I did a radio show with HoweStreet’s Jim Goddard and said that strong day and overly positive sentiment was the going to be the top, which it was – Listen Here.
We had been advising our members that Gold would likely retrace below $1300 possibly beeper by and mid-April. Our advanced Adaptive Learning price modeling systems had warned us that Gold would likely setup a price rotation before the next move higher back in January 2019. This is what you need to know about the next 4+ weeks in Gold.
Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, March 10, 2019
Taylor Wimpey Reports £811m in Profits boosted by Help-to-Buy / Housing-Market / UK Housing
By: Boris_Dzhingarov
The housing market slow down many feared resulting from the uncertainty of Brexit and been quelled by the United Kingdom’s low mortgage rates and its help-to-buy program. Housebuilders across the country have reported profits this year including Taylor Wimpey, and that signals a solid start to 2019.Taylor Wimpey, the third largest builder in Britain, reported pre-tax profits of £810.7 million for the 2018 year on 15,275 house built. This was an increase of 19% and saw its shares rise by 3%, and that saw them becoming one of the top on the FTSE 100.
Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, March 10, 2019
SPX Big US Stocks Fundamentals / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Zeal_LLC
The widely-held mega-cap stocks that dominate the US markets recently finished reporting their Q4’18 financial results. Because the tenor of stock markets changed radically last quarter, this latest earnings season is more important than usual. An extreme monster bull market suddenly rolled over into a severe near-bear correction in Q4. How major corporations fared offers insights into whether a young bear is upon us.
Four times a year publicly-traded companies release treasure troves of valuable information in the form of quarterly reports. Required by the US Securities and Exchange Commission, these 10-Qs and 10-Ks contain the best fundamental data available to traders. They dispel all the sentiment distortions inevitably surrounding prevailing stock-price levels, revealing corporations’ underlying hard fundamental realities.
While 10-Qs with filing deadlines of 40 days after quarter-ends are required for normal quarters, 10-K annual reports are instead mandated after quarters ending fiscal years. Most big companies logically run their accounting on calendar years, so they issue 10-Ks after Q4s. Since these annual reports are larger and must be audited by independent CPAs, their filing deadlines are extended to 60 days after quarter-ends.
Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, March 10, 2019
US Retail Sales Panic Data Could Be Just a Glitch / Economics / Retail Sector
By: John_Mauldin
Recession antennae popped up everywhere on February 14.
The Commerce Department reported retail sales fell 1.2% in December. It was the worst month-over-month decline since 2009:
Sunday, March 10, 2019
Draghi Won’t Send a Rate Hike Gift to the Gold Bulls / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
The ECB eased its monetary stance. It launched another round of cheap loans to banks and promised to keep interest rates unchanged this year. It means that Draghi will not hike during his presidency. What does it all mean for the gold market?
ECB Unveils New Monetary Stimulus in Response to Slowdown
The ECB left its interest rates unchanged. But it pushed out the timing of its first post-crisis rate hike until 2020 at the earliest. As we can read in the monetary policy statement.
The Governing Council now expects the key ECB interest rates to remain at their present levels at least through the end of 2019, and in any case for as long as necessary to ensure the continued sustained convergence of inflation to levels that are below, but close to, 2% over the medium term.
Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, March 10, 2019
Best Budget Gaming Headset 2019 EasySMX Review / Personal_Finance / Gaming
By: Sami_Walayat
This is a review of EasySMX's gaming headphones headset that we bought off Amazon for £18 (https://amzn.to/2EYU8CK). This competitively priced headset features a seperate headphone and microphone jacks, and a USB to power the cycling LED lights. The headphones can be easily used with a myriad of devices without othe need for any drivers, just plug in the headphone jack into for instance an Android phone, PC, or gamesconsole and they instantly work, same for the microphone jack, where an adapoter isprovided for single socket devices.Most importantly the sound quality from the low priced headset is excellant as illustrated by our video review.
Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, March 09, 2019
Yield Curve Inversion and the Stock Market 2019 - Video / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Yield Curve Inversion
An inverted yield curve is basically when the yield on 2 year US government bond exceeds the 10 year US bond yield as worried investors opt to disinvest from risky assets in favour of safer longer term government bonds thus driving down long bond yields below that of nearer term bonds. And the closer the yield curve gets towards towards an inversion the greater the likelihood for a future recession. So far the yield curve inversion has successfully forecast the last 3 economic downturns in the United States. Though the YCI has proved less reliable elsewhere, especially for Australia.
Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, March 09, 2019
Should We Rethink Nuclear Power? / Commodities / Nuclear Power
By: OilPrice_Com
While it seems to fly in the face of everything we believe and have been taught about nuclear power, it may actually be the safest form of power production that we have. Ironically, the immense potency of the power of splitting an atom is simultaneously what makes nuclear weapons so dangerous as well as what makes nuclear power so safe.
Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, March 09, 2019
Palladium Hits Record High / Commodities / Palladium
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
Gold is no longer the most valuable precious metal! Palladium dethroned it! We invite you, thus, to read our today’s article about that metal and find out what is the fundamental outlook for the palladium market.
We have a new record! Please take a look at the chart below, which displays the palladium prices since the beginning of the year. As one can see, the price of palladium soared in the first two months more than 20 percent, jumping above $1,500!
Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, March 09, 2019
Strong Historical Probability of Natural Gas Long Trades Setting Up / Commodities / Natural Gas
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Would you believe that March and April, historically, shows a 2 to 1 statistical probability of NG moving higher. Each of these months shows, historically, that NG has a strong potential for at least a $1.00 upside price move in both March and April. Only 1/3 of the historically testing time (23 years) did the price of NG actually decrease.
How do we know this? We’ve built proprietary price modeling and data modeling solutions that allow us to isolate and verify this data. This data was tested on a Monthly price basis for the statistics we’ve provided, above. When we run this same test on Weekly data, the results continue to support our conclusions.
Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, March 09, 2019
Various Stock Market Indicators are Plunging. Run for the Hills! / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Troy_Bombardia
The S&P 500 is pulling back from its 2800 resistance. Meanwhile, the latest readings for various widely publicized technical and fundamental indicators plunged. And right on cue, mainstream financial media broadcasted these indicators with a megaphone because hey, nothing sells like bad news. (Modern day finance is all about the marketing hype).
Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, March 09, 2019
Unsecured Debt hits £15,400 per UK Household / Interest-Rates / UK Debt
By: Submissions
It has been revealed in statistics provided by the trade union body, the TUC, that unsecured debt in the UK has now reached a new high of £15,400 per British household. To compile its figures, the TUC compared the total amount of money lent in overdrafts, personal loans, payday loans, store cards, and credit card debts.
Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, March 08, 2019
QE4EVER Stock Market 2019 / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The stock market soared has soared since the start of 2019, this despite President Trump shutting much of the US government down for 5 weeks accompanied by increasing global economic doom and gloom from a slowdown in China, to Germany teetering on the brink of recession a with Italy already having tipped into recession.
Read full article... Read full article...