Monday, June 17, 2019
Stock Market Outlook: is the S&P today just like 2007 or 2016? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Troy_Bombardia
Bears are saying “the S&P today looks just like 2007” while bulls are saying “the S&P today looks just like 2016”. In reality, the S&P today is most like 1967 (not quite what you would expect).
Various technical factors suggest that the medium term is bullish.
The short term is mixed, and such a politically-driven market environment certainly does not add to one’s confidence about making short term predictions. Focus on the data and facts. Don’t trade the news.
- Fundamentals (long term): no significant U.S. macro deterioration, but the long term risk:reward doesn’t favor bulls.
- Technicals (medium term): mostly bullish
- Technicals (short term): mixed
Sunday, June 16, 2019
Why Hedge Fund Manager Ray Dalio Is Wrong on Capitalism / Economics / Economic Theory
By: John_Mauldin
Ray Dalio is the thoughtful, somewhat controversial founder of the world’s largest hedge fund, Bridgewater Associates, which he started in 1975.
While much of his writing is private, I (and many others) peruse every word we can of his and the Bridgewater team’s thinking. I find it to be some of the most interesting market commentary I read.
Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, June 16, 2019
US China War - Thucydides Trap and gold / Politics / China US Conflict
By: Richard_Mills
When an emerging power attempts to supplant a hegemonic power in international politics, major conflict often ensues. This is the definition of “The Thucydides Trap” as explained in a recent op-ed piece in The Japan Times.
The Thucydides Trap (pronounced “thu”, like you have a heavy lisp + sid + idees) is a term invented by Graham Allison, a professor at Harvard’s Kennedy School of Government. Alison has been saying since 2015 that war between a rising power, China, and an established power, the United States, is inevitable, based on historical examples. The argument is fleshed out in his book, 'Destined for War: Can America and China Escape Thucydides’sTrap?'
Allison’s Thucydides Trap has become a popular topic of conversation among the chattering classes in these troubling times in America, especially with a loose cannon like Trump as the tweeter-in-chief who has the keys to the nuclear button. As positions in the trade dispute get more entrenched, and issues like Huawei crop up, many are talking about a march to war with a new adversary: China.
Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, June 16, 2019
Gold Stocks Bull Upleg Mounting / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2019
By: Zeal_LLC
The gold miners’ stocks have surged powerfully over the past few weeks, challenging upleg highs. Traders started returning to this small contrarian sector as gold blasted back above the psychologically-crucial $1300 line. While such early-summer strength is atypical, gold miners’ technicals, sentiment, and fundamentals all support more gains to come. Gold stocks need to mean revert to much-higher price levels.
Traders usually track gold-stock fortunes with this sector’s most-popular exchange-traded fund, the GDX VanEck Vectors Gold Miners ETF. Launched in May 2006, this was the maiden gold-stock ETF. That big first-mover advantage has helped propel GDX to sector dominance. This week its net assets of $9.7b ran 46.5x larger than the next-biggest 1x-long major-gold-miners ETF! GDX is this sector’s leading benchmark.
And it sure didn’t look pretty in May, with traders wanting nothing to do with gold stocks. GDX spent the great majority of last month languishing near its 200-day moving average. Just a few weeks ago on May 29th, GDX closed at $20.42. That was down 3.2% year-to-date, much worse than gold’s own slight 0.2% YTD decline. The gold stocks were really out of favor, just like the metal they mine which fuels their profits.
Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, June 16, 2019
Gold Price Seasonal Trend Analysis - Video / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: Nadeem_Walayat
This is my third video in this series that concludes in a detailed trend forecast for the Gold Price into September 2019.
SEASONAL ANALYSIS
Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, June 16, 2019
Fethiye Market Fruit, Veg, Spices and Turkish Delight Tourist Shopping / Personal_Finance / Travel & Holidays
By: Anika_Walayat
If your going to be holidaying in Turkey this year and are anywhere near the Dalaman / Fethiye area then you MUST visit the Fethiye Tuesday market! It is huge! Vibrant, bustling with variety, Turkish culture in action with plenty of bargains to be had if your upto the haggling challenge. It's a experience in its out right and its FREE, apart from the shopping. You get to see a side of the world that you don't usually see, full of tourists from all over the world of all types and ages, a true melting pot.
Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, June 15, 2019
US Dollar Gold Trend Analysis / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The following chart illustrates that there is a strong inverse relationship between the US Dollar and Gold. When the Dollar rises, the gold price tends to fall and visa versa, it should not be surprising given that the Gold is priced in dollars. The only recent deviation from the correlation was October to December which coincided with stock market weakness i.e. SAFEHAVEN buying of the Dollar AND Gold. So the safe haven buying that gold bugs obsess over tends to be temporary at times of stock market stress.
Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, June 15, 2019
Will the US Economy Fall into Recession? Or Will It Accelerate? / Economics / US Economy
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
The current economic expansion has just equaled with the longest boom in the US history. Is that not suspicious? We invite you to read our today’s article, which provide you with the valuable lessons from the 1990s expansion for the gold market and find out whether the US economy will die of old age.
Lessons from the 1990s Expansion for the Economy and the Gold Market
The current economic expansion has just equaled with the longest boom in the US history. Unless the sky falls in the next few weeks, we will celebrate a new record in July. Is that not suspicious?
Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, June 15, 2019
Gold Stocks “Launch” is in Line With Fundamentals / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: Gary_Tanashian
I make the point in the title because the real fundamentals that matter for the gold stock sector must be in line at the beginning of a real bull phase or bull market for the sector. I make that point with the example of Q1 2016, when a very powerful gold stock “launch” erupted but in Q2 of that year we (NFTRH) were already advising a degrading of those fundamentals. A public article I wrote referenced this on May 30, 2016.
AMAT Chirps, b2b Ramps, Yellen Hawks and Gold’s Fundamentals Erode
What had happened in 2016 was that gold bottomed first, followed by the miners and silver. But then the whole raft of cyclical assets (commodities, stocks, etc.) bottomed and turned up. A cyclical party soon regenerated and the counter-cyclical gold stock sector was sent back to the hell it came from.
Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, June 15, 2019
The Rise of Silver and Major Economic Decline / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: Hubert_Moolman
After a period of economic prosperity, it is a given that eventually a period of economic decline will follow. This is a well known reality.
Since at least the early 80s there has been a period of great economic prosperity. Yes, there were many recessions during that period, however, as a whole it has been a prosperous period.
Now, there are many signs that we are likely to get a period of serious economic decline. The type that has not been seen in many a lifetime of those living today.
Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, June 15, 2019
Fire Insurance Claims: What Are the Things a Fire Claim Adjuster Does? / Personal_Finance / Insurance
By: Sumeet_Manhas
Housefires are among the tragedies we can never expect to happen. As homeowners, we always do the necessary precautions to prevent fire accidents. However, there are times when we can’t. So, if tragedy strikes and our properties are badly damaged by fire, what should be our next step?
We always think that filing a fire insurance claim is the next step. But before we do that, it is very important to know the ins and outs of the fire claim process. Are we talking to the right fire claim adjuster? To help you in filing a fire claim, below are steps you can follow to make sure you’ll get what you deserve from your coverage.
Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, June 15, 2019
How To Find A Trustworthy Casino? / Personal_Finance / Gambling
By: Hillary_Walker
...
Friday, June 14, 2019
Boris Johnson Vs Michael Gove Tory Leadership Grudge Match - Video / Politics / UK Politics
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The tory leadership contest is converging towards the ultimate grudge match of Boris Johnson who should have won the 2016 leadership campaign vs Michael Gove who should have backed Boris Johnson in 2016 but instead chose to stab him in the back by standing himself for leader just a few hours before Boris was set to announce his candidature for next tory leader.
We'll now 3 years on Boris has learned his lessons and thus had deployed a slick campaign to convince MP's and Tory party members to finally back him for their next leader and thus the next British Prime Minister as the results of MP's voting in the first round illustrates:
Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, June 14, 2019
Gold and Silver, Precious Metals: T-Minus 3 Seconds To Liftoff! / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: Chris_Vermeulen
We take great pride in our research team’s ability to make accurate predictions and calls in the markets. In addition to the many predictions and calls we’ve made over the past few years, our Gold prediction from October 2018 continues to astound many industry professionals. We receive emails from people asking how we were able to make such an incredible call in Gold 6 to 8 months before these price moves? We politely tell these people that our research team and our proprietary predictive modeling tools assist us in finding and making these incredible predictions. The simple answer is it takes hard work, specialized tools and a lot of skill and research.
Please take a minute to review some of our research from January 2019 that highlighted this incredible prediction for Gold and the supporting, more recent, research posts suggesting Silver is the real sleeper trade.
Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, June 14, 2019
Silver Investing Trend Analysis - Video / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The Silver price reluctantly followed the Gold higher early in the year to a late February peak of $16.20, following which it abruptly gave up all of its hard won gains for the year by making a new low early March at $15, breaking the preceding low of $15.45 and thus entering into a downtrend of a series of lower highs and lows where it remained until the Gold price came alive at the end of May 2019. Following which the Silver price busted out of its 2019 downtrend by hitting a recent high of $15.15 before succumbing to selling to bring the price down to its last close of $14.74 DOWN 5% for the year which compares against the Gold price up 4% for the year which illustrates the persistent under performance of the Silver price against the Gold price.
Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, June 14, 2019
The American Dream Is Alive and Well - in China / Economics / China Economy
By: Ellen_Brown
Home ownership has been called “the quintessential American dream.” Yet today less than 65% of American homes are owner occupied, and more than 50% of the equity in those homes is owned by the banks. Compare China, where, despite facing one of the most expensive real estate markets in the world, a whopping 90% of families can afford to own their homes.
Over the last decade, American wages have stagnated and U.S. productivity has consistently been outpaced by China’s. The U.S. government has responded by engaging in a trade war and imposing stiff tariffs in order to penalize China for what the White House deems unfair trade practices. China’s industries are said to be propped up by the state and to have significantly lower labor costs, allowing them to dump cheap products on the U.S. market, causing prices to fall and forcing U.S. companies out of business. The message to middle America is that Chinese labor costs are low because their workers are being exploited in slave-like conditions at poverty-level wages.
Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, June 14, 2019
Three Steps to Making Your Personal Finances More Private in a Digital Age / Personal_Finance / Financial Education
By: MoneyMetals
Imagine a world where every financial move you make gets recorded in databases that are accessible by any number of third parties – from bankers, to government bureaucrats, to data thieves.
It’s the world of the cashless, all-digital economy. And it’s rapidly approaching.
Fortunately, there are some steps you can take to secure your financial privacy – or at least make your wealth less vulnerable to digital prying – before it’s too late.
Friday, June 14, 2019
Soft Inflation Data and Concerned Draghi. How Will Gold Like It? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
U.S. consumer inflation has moderated recently. Trade wars go on. What the Fed will do now? Let’s not forget the recent ECB monetary policy meeting. It carries implications for both EUR/USD and gold. Just what are they?
Inflation Slows Down in May
The CPI rose just 0.1 percent in May, following an increase of 0.3 percent in April, the government said on Wednesday. It was the smallest hike since January. The core CPI, which excludes food and energy prices, also increased 0.1 percent, for the fourth month in a row. Although the monthly numbers do not portend a revolution, May indicates eased inflationary pressure, mainly because of falling energy and used-vehicle prices.
Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, June 14, 2019
Keeping the Online Gaming Industry in Line / Companies / Gambling
By: Submissions
...
Friday, June 14, 2019
How Acquisitions Affect Global Stocks / Companies / IPOs
By: Submissions
If you love to keep up to date with market news or you enjoy reading financial forums, you can’t have missed the fact that waves of excitement travel through the investment community every time a big acquisition is expected. Suddenly there’s lots of speculation about what will happen to stock prices and what will be the right moment to buy or sell. The international nature of today’s market means that big company purchases have repercussions around the clock, keeping investors on their toes. In this fast-paced environment, it has never been more important to understand how acquisitions affect stock prices and what this means for global market movements.Read full article... Read full article...