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Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Commodities

Friday, June 21, 2019

Gold Bull Market Breaking Out! / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Zeal_LLC

Gold finally surged to new bull-market highs this week!  Several years after its last bull high, gold punched through vexing resistance after the Fed continued capitulating on ever normalizing.  This huge milestone changes everything for gold and its miners’ stocks, unleashing new-high psychology fueling self-feeding buying.  With speculators not yet all-in and investors wildly underdeployed, gold has room to power much higher.

Gold momentum has certainly been building for a major upside breakout.  Back in mid-April with gold still near $1300, I wrote an essay describing the “Gold-Bull Breakout Potential” and why it was finally coming.  Then a couple weeks ago with gold in the $1330s, I published another one analyzing “Gold Surges Near Breakout”.  For several years higher lows had slowly compressed gold ever closer to surging over resistance.

Today’s gold bull was first born back in mid-December 2015 the day after the Fed’s initial rate hike in its just-abandoned tightening cycle.  Gold’s maiden upleg was massive, rocketing 29.9% higher in just 6.7 months to $1365 in early July 2016!  But that first high-water mark has proven impregnable over the 3.0 years since.  Gold tried and failed to break out in 2017, 2018, and 2019, repelled near a $1350 Maginot Line.

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Commodities

Friday, June 21, 2019

Post-FOMC Commentary: Delusions of Grandeur / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: The_Gold_Report

Sector expert Michael Ballanger reacts to today's Federal Open Market Committee meeting. To the surprise of the many and the chagrin of the few, the Fed opted to do nothing with policy today and left rates unchanged despite clarion calls for a cut. As I wrote about earlier, there was (and is) zero rationale for a rate cut, what with GDP humming along and the best employment numbers in fifty years (if you believe them). Stocks moved higher despite several attempts at profit-taking, but that was no surprise because the Fed wanted to make damn certain the response to the statement and the ensuing presser would be a positive outcome.

The victims were bond yields (lower) and the U.S. dollar (lower), but the S&P rose 8.71 (0.30%), while gold had at its highest close for 2019 at $1,364.45. The lower U.S. dollar contributed to the advance in the metals, but we are still caught in a resistance quagmire between $1,350 and $1,375, with the relative strength index (RSI) screaming "Overbought!" after an $80 advance.

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Commodities

Friday, June 21, 2019

Gold Scores Gains as Draghi and Powel Grow Concerned / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

Super Mario delivered a surprisingly dovish speech. But he was shortly outshined by Super Jerome. Both key central banks have sent new signals to the markets for interpretation. Let’s read the tea leaves and make sense of the initial reaction in the gold market.

Draghi Repeats ‘Whatever it Takes’ In a Mini Version

As we covered one week ago in the Gold News Monitor, the ECB became more dovish on the June monetary policy meeting. The central bank postponed the possible beginning of the interest rate hiking from the end of 2019 to the mid-2020.

Our assessment was that “the European central bankers are getting more worried about the state of the Eurozone economy and may adopt an even more dovish stance in the near future.” It turned out we were right. We did not have to wait too long for a more forceful signal from the ECB. On Tuesday, Mario Draghi delivered a mini ‘whatever it takes’ speech at the annual conference in Sintra, Portugal. He said:

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Commodities

Friday, June 21, 2019

Potential Upside Targets for Gold Stocks / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2019

By: Jordan_Roy_Byrne

Gold has finally broken out to the upside.

In Asia trading on Thursday, Gold exploded through the $1360 to $1370 resistance zone and was able to hold the gains throughout the day, closing above $1395/oz.

As we pen this article, Gold has to chance to break $1400/oz by the weekend. The close of the month (and quarter) next week will provide an additional clue as to the sustainability of this strength.

The gold stocks meanwhile have been on an absolute tear. GDX is up 16 of the past 17 trading days and has gained 23% over that period. GDXJ is up 13 of the past 17 sessions and has also gained 23% during that period.

GDX closed right at resistance at $25. It could blow through it and reach a multi-year high at $27 or it could first correct and consolidate around $25.

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Commodities

Friday, June 21, 2019

Gold Price Trend Forcast to End September 2019 / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Nadeem_Walayat

This is the final article in this Gold analysis series that concludes in a detailed trend forecast for the Gold price into Late September 2019 :

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Commodities

Friday, June 21, 2019

Gold Bus has left the Station / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: SurfCity

Surf City has several seats on the Bus.  Do you?

Summary: Gold closed at $1348 today according to Stockcharts but is now much higher at $1365 as I write this update.  My two longer-term weekly charts on GLD show the potential for a massive upside breakout where price could really run hard & fast.  My first chart is a 6 Year weekly showing a massive inverse Head & shoulders pattern that is ready to bust out to the upside of the inverse neckline. Remember that the bigger the pattern in Time, the more powerful the Breakout potential.  My second chart is a 2 year weekly showing a large “Cup & Handle” pattern, which is another bullish structure where price could really run.

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Commodities

Friday, June 21, 2019

The Gold (and Silver) Volcano Is Ready to Erupt / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: MoneyMetals

In March 1980, the University of Washington installed a seismograph system designed to monitor earthquake activity in the Cascades, with a focus on increased seismic activity around Mount St. Helens.

Starting just a few days later, a series of earthquakes, small eruptions, and steam releases took place. Near the end of the month, the peak of the mountain started to open up.

But this was only the beginning. For the next six weeks, small eruptions alternated with intermittent quiet periods. But beneath the surface, liquid magma was forcing its way upward, creating intense pressure.

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Stock-Markets

Friday, June 21, 2019

Fed Leaves Rates Unchanged – Gold & Stocks Rally/Dollar Falls / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2019

By: Chris_Vermeulen

We believe the US stock market is nearing upper resistance.  We still believe the US stock market will eventually attempt to move about the psychological levels of 3000 for the S&P, 30,000 for the Dow and 340 SPY.  This move to new all-time highs will likely result in a ”scouting party” type of price pattern where price attempts to identify new resistance, slightly above the psychological levels, then reverses back below these levels to retest support.

Our continued belief that a large pennant/flag formation is unfolding has not changed. As technical analysts, we need to wait for the new price peak form before we can identify where the upper channel of the pennant/flag formation is trending. We would urge traders to be conscious that any outside move in the stock markets as a very limited upside potential from current levels. The SPY is trading at 293 and we believe upper resistance will be found slightly above 300. Thus, we really have about a $7 or $8 move to the upside from current levels – only about 3% to 4% more room to the upside.

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Commodities

Thursday, June 20, 2019

US Dollar vs Gold Trend Analysis - Video / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Nadeem_Walayat

This is my fourth video in this series that concludes in a detailed trend forecast for the Gold Price into September 2019.

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Commodities

Thursday, June 20, 2019

Silver Medium-Term Trend Analysis / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Nadeem_Walayat

The medium-term chart shows early signs of Silver changing trend by attempting to end it's multi-year downtrend by making a higher high of $16.20 and higher low of $14,27. A break above $16.20 would lift Silver into a new trading range of $18 and $16.20. Which if it happens will mean we won't revisit the $14.00 area for some time. So with Silver currently trading at $14.74 then time may be running out to accumulate Silver at a sub $15 price.

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Commodities

Thursday, June 20, 2019

Gold Mining Stocks Waiting on This Chart / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2019

By: Gary_Tanashian

It’s not a chart of nominal HUI with upside technical targets. We’ll do that in NFTRH this weekend, along with the usual individual miners. Rather, it’s a companion to other charts we’ve been reviewing over the last several months showing the under valuation of the gold stock sector relative to gold’s performance vs. cyclical assets/markets. For example, gold has risen strongly vs. the CRB index and that is a sector fundamental under valuation.

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Commodities

Thursday, June 20, 2019

A Key Gold Bull Market Signal / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Hubert_Moolman

The gold market is looking a lot like it did early in the millennium, at the start of the bull market. It is setting up for a gold bull market that is likely to be way more intense than the previous one, due to the structural weaknesses incurred by the monetary system since then.

Debt levels, for example, have grown significantly since the early 2000s. US Goverment debts (Federal debt) as a percentage of GDP  has grown from 55% in 2000 to 105% today.

There will soon be significant market movements to compensate for the unsustainable debt levels. If your debt levels are becoming too high, at some point your credit rating will be affected to the extent that lenders will require higher interest rates and/or they will refuse to provide you any credit. This is true whether you are an individual or a nation state.

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Economics

Thursday, June 20, 2019

The Longer the US Sino-Tariff Wars Go On, the Harder It Will Be to Undo the Damage / Economics / Protectionism

By: Dan_Steinbock

Compared to pre-2008 crisis levels, world economic growth has plummeted by half and is at risk of a long-term, hard-to-reverse stagnation. Returning to global integration and multilateral reconciliation could dramatically change the scenario

Since spring 2017, the US-led tariff wars have effectively undermined the global recovery. In the past years, global economy has navigated across several scenarios. Now it is approaching the edge.

I have been following four generic scenarios on the prospects of global economic growth since the U.S. 2016 election. The first two scenarios represent variants of “recoupling." In these cases, global integration prevails, despite tensions. In the next two scenarios, global integration will fail, either in part and regionally or fully and globally.
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Personal_Finance

Thursday, June 20, 2019

Money Saving Kids Gardening Growing Giant Sunflowers Summer Fun / Personal_Finance / Gardening

By: Anika_Walayat

Here 3 year old Eliza shows how kids can have lots of money saving summer fun by planting sunflower seeds and then watch as they germinate and grow as the rate of growth of giant sunflowers is truly spectacular! Something that the kids will enjoy!

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Companies

Thursday, June 20, 2019

Investing in APPLE (AAPL) to Profit From AI Machine Learning Stocks / Companies / Apple

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Where to invest to profit from the exponential machine intelligence mega-trend. I have ranked these stocks in in terms of risk vs reward and volatility. Do remember that when investing in the stock market that your capital is at risk. There are NO SURE BETS!

If you've not already done so then watch my following video from November 2016 which illustrates why everything will start to change exponentially by 2021.

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Stock-Markets

Thursday, June 20, 2019

Small Cap Stocks May Lead A Market Rally / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019

By: Chris_Vermeulen

We believe a unique Pennant/Flag formation is setting up in the US stock markets. We believe the Small Cap sector may provide a better technical reference to the price breakout we are expecting in late August or early September than the mid or large-cap sectors.  The charts tell a very interesting story when comparing the different sectors to the SPY.

As most of you are well aware, the very deep selloff between October and December 2018 prompted a low price pivot point that most technical analysts are using as a reference to support. What we find interesting is that these Small Caps have really failed to mount any type of price recovery.  We believe this is because of the continued capital shift where foreign investors and institutional investors are piling into mid-cap and large-cap equities chasing dividends and safety.  The small-cap index chart may provide the best technical reference for the pennant formation and eventual breakout move.

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Interest-Rates

Thursday, June 20, 2019

Interest Rates Square Minus Zero / Interest-Rates / Central Banks

By: Raul_I_Meijer

I intentionally start writing this mere minutes away from Fed chair Jay Powell’s latest comments. Intentionally, because the importance ascribed to those comments only means we have gotten so far removed from what capitalism and free markets are supposed to be about, that it’s pathetic. The comments mean something for rich socialists, but nothing for the man in the street. Or, rather, they mean that the man in the street will get screwed worse for longer.

And it’s not just the Fed, all central banks have it and do it. They play around with rates and definitions and semantics until the cows can never come home again. And they have such levels of control over their respective societies and economies that the mere use of the word “markets” should result in loud and unending ridicule. There are no markets, because there is no price discovery, the Fed and ECB and BOJ got it all covered. Any downside risks, that is.

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Personal_Finance

Thursday, June 20, 2019

Advice for Financing a Luxury Vehicle / Personal_Finance / Debt & Loans

By: Kavinesh_A

...

 


Stock-Markets

Thursday, June 20, 2019

Stock Market Final Blow Off Top Just Hit… Next Week Comes the FIREWORKS / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019

By: Graham_Summers

Well, that’s that.

The markets surged on the Fed announcement of NO rate cuts because the market now believes the Fed is GUARANTEED to make a MASSIVE cut in July.

The S&P 500 (blue line in the chart below) hit our upside target for this rally, catching up the breadth (black line in the chart below). We might finish the week around here, but going forward anyone going long is effectively “picking up pennies in front of a steamroller.”

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Currencies

Wednesday, June 19, 2019

US Dollar Rallies Off Support But Is This A Top Or Bottom? / Currencies / US Dollar

By: Chris_Vermeulen

The US dollar rallied nearly half a percent off recent support near $96.50.  This upside price move confirms the capital shift we have been talking about.  Foreign capital is pouring into US markets and US dollar as strength in the US economy continues to dominate.

This new upside move in the US dollar has established a new lower price channel that should continue to act as price support going forward. Fibonacci price structure dictates that a higher low and a higher high price rotation may follow. We would expect some resistance just below the $98 level and if the Fed lowers the rate the dollar will likely pullback and consolidate for a few weeks to digest the news, but investors will still see the USD as the strong currency and keep buying it longer term.

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