Sunday, August 18, 2019
The Nuts and Bolts: Yield Inversion Says Recession is Coming But it May take 24 months / Economics / Recession
By: QUANTO
Consumers continue to power economic growth, as retail sales rose 0.7% in July, after a 0.3% increase in June, the Commerce Department reported Thursday. Excluding autos, sales soared 1.0%, after a 0.7% climb in June. Economists polled by IFR Markets expected a 0.3% rise in the headline number and 0.4% excluding autos. Auto sales were down 0.6% in July, after 0.3% growth the prior month.
Preliminary second quarter productivity figures also were positive news for the economy, as non-farm productivity grew a healthy 2.3% on an annualized basis in the second quarter, albeit down from the first quarter’s 3.5% growth, the Labor Department reported. Unit labor costs grew 2.4% in the period, after a revised 5.5% jump in the first quarter, previously reported as a 1.6% decline.
Economists projected a 1.5% gain in productivity and a 1.8% rise in labor costs.
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Sunday, August 18, 2019
Markets August 19 Turn Date is Tomorrow – Are You Ready? / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2019
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Our August 19 breakdown prediction from months ago has really taken root with many of our followers and readers. We’ve been getting emails and messages from hundreds of our followers asking for updates regarding this prediction. Well, here is the last update before the August 19th date (tomorrow) and we hope you have been taking our research to heart.
First, we believe the August 19 breakdown date will be the start of something that could last for more than 5 to 12+ months. So, please understand that our predicted date is not a make-or-break type of scenario for traders. It means that we believe this date, based on our cycle research, will become a critical inflection point in price that may lead to bigger price swings, more volatility and some type of market breakdown event. Thus, if you have already prepared for this event – perfect. If this is the first time you are reading about our August 19 breakdown prediction, then we suggest you take a bit of time to review the following research posts.
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Saturday, August 17, 2019
JOHNSON AND JOHNSON - JNJ for Life Extension Pharma Stocks Investing / Companies / Healthcare Sector
By: Nadeem_Walayat
We are currently galloping full speed along an exponential curve that unlike the neural nets of the 1990's, that promised a lot but delivered very little, this time it really looks like we are on the verge of AI success, not only that but it heralds changes in every aspect of our lives most of which we cannot even imagine today, hence the term the singularity is often used, the AI event horizon beyond which we cannot see.
My latest analysis in this series focuses on how to profit and capitalise on the unfolding machine intelligence driven mega-trend through investing in leveraged to AI Human Life Extension stocks.
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Saturday, August 17, 2019
Negative Bond Market Yields Tell A Story Of Shifting Economic Stock Market Leadership / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Negative yields are becoming common for many of the world’s most mature economies. The process of extending negative yields within these economies suggests that safety is more important than returns and that central banks realize that growth and increases in GDP are more important than positive returns on capital. In the current economic environment, this suggests that global capital investors are seeking out alternative solutions to adequately develop longer-term opportunities and to develop native growth prospects that don’t currently exist.
Our research team has been researching this phenomenon and how it relates to the continued “capital shift” that is taking place throughout the globe. We believe we have some answers for anyone interested in our opinions. We also believe the longer-term answers will depend on what happens over the next 5 to 7 years throughout the globe and how economic expectations shift as well as how global debt is dealt with.
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Saturday, August 17, 2019
Is Stock Market About to Crash? Three Charts That Suggest It’s Possible / Stock-Markets / Stock Market Crash
By: Graham_Summers
Things are worsening quickly now.
The S&P 500 has failed to recover its 50-day moving average (red line). Even worse, the 13-day moving average (blue line) has staged a bearish cross with the 50-day moving average, signaling DOWNWARDS momentum is building.
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Saturday, August 17, 2019
It’s Time For Colombia To Dump The Peso / Currencies / Fiat Currency
By: Steve_H_Hanke
Colombia’s peso is in trouble, again. Against the U.S. dollar, the peso has shed 20% of its value in a little more than a year and 7% in the last month. Like most Latin American currencies, the Colombian peso bobs up and down like a yo-yo, but its long-term trend is one of weakness. Indeed, since August 2014, the peso has lost 45% of its value against the greenback. Talk about a theft! The chart below tells the peso’s most recent tale.
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Friday, August 16, 2019
Gold & Silver Stand Strong amid Stock Volatility & Falling Rates / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: MoneyMetals
Welcome to this week’s Market Wrap Podcast, I’m Mike Gleason.
Coming up we dive into China with one of the foremost experts on the subject Gordon Chang. Gordon shares his thoughts on the U.S.-China trade war and why he believes it’s not likely to end anytime soon, talks about the pending economic catastrophe he sees in China and the effects it’s going to have on the global economy and, more importantly, for metals investors. You will not want to miss this incredibly in depth and fascinating conversation with the man nearly everyone goes to these days for an explanation of what’s really happening in China, Gordon Chang, coming up after this week’s market update.
Gold and silver prices have been on the move again this week. The metals continue to serve as a safe haven from trade wars, currency wars, plunging bond yields, and stock market volatility.
For the week, gold prices are up another 0.7% to bring spot prices to $1,509 per ounce. It’s down a bit today and is looking to hang on for a weekly close above the technically important $1,500 level. With a few hours here left in the trading week we’ll see if it can do that. Silver is higher by 0.6% since last Friday’s close to trade at $17.15. Platinum isn’t faring too well, down $20 or 2.3% to come in at $845. But its sister metal palladium shows a weekly gain of 1.5% and currently trades at $1,450 an ounce.
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Friday, August 16, 2019
Gold Mining Stocks Q2’19 Fundamentals / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: Zeal_LLC
The major gold miners’ stocks have soared in recent months, fueled by gold’s decisive breakout to new bull-market highs. Nothing motivates traders like performance, so interest in this long-neglected sector has exploded. While gold stocks’ technicals and sentiment have greatly strengthened, their just-reported Q2’19 results reveal whether their underlying fundamentals support their powerful surge and further upside.
Four times a year publicly-traded companies release treasure troves of valuable information in the form of quarterly reports. Required by the US Securities and Exchange Commission, these 10-Qs and 10-Ks contain the best fundamental data available to traders. They dispel all the sentiment distortions inevitably surrounding prevailing stock-price levels, revealing corporations’ underlying hard fundamental realities.
The definitive list of major gold-mining stocks to analyze comes from the world’s most-popular gold-stock investment vehicle, the GDX VanEck Vectors Gold Miners ETF. Launched way back in May 2006, it has an insurmountable first-mover lead. GDX’s net assets running $11.8b this week were a staggering 44.0x larger than the next-biggest 1x-long major-gold-miners ETF! GDX is effectively this sector’s blue-chip index.
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Friday, August 16, 2019
Silver, Transports, and Dow Jones Index At Targets – What Direct Next? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Chris_Vermeulen
As you can probably imagine, we’ve received a ton of emails and questions about our recent predictions for precious metals and the August 19 breakdown date in the global markets. It seems everyone is reading our research posts and is curious about how to prepare for these moves and how we came up with these predictions months in advance. In this second part of our metals & Aug 19 update post, we’ll try to highlight our expectations going into the weekend prior to the Aug 19 breakdown date (Monday).
In the first part of this research post, we highlighted what we believe is the imminent completion of the MID Leg 1 upside move in precious metals. Our research continues to suggest that we are still setting up a major LEG 1 upside move which should be considered a larger Elliot Wave structure. Within this Wave (Leg) 1 formation, a typical 5 wave structure is likely to continue forming. Currently, we are creating the Wave 3 of the total of 5 waves that will complete a finished upside Wave (Leg 1).
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Friday, August 16, 2019
When the US Bond Market Bubble Blows Up! / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Gary_Tanashian
Amazing isn’t it? It was only back in H2 2018 when everybody but you (because you are as smart as I think you are or because you read NFTRH or nftrh.com) and me was unbelievably bearish about the TREASURY BOND BEAR MARKET!!!
Today… not so much. The herd is absolutely pile driving bonds right now.
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Friday, August 16, 2019
Dark days are closing in on Apple / Companies / Apple
By: Stephen_McBride
What’s the most successful product in history?
Chances are pretty good you’re holding one in your hand right now...
Apple (AAPL) has sold roughly a TRILLION dollars’ worth of iPhones since 2007.
If the iPhone were a company, it would rank #30 on the Fortune 500 list of the world’s biggest businesses.
Since the iPhone debuted in 2007, Apple’s sales have jumped 10X...
It became the first public company to ever achieve a trillion dollar valuation...
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Friday, August 16, 2019
Epstein Is Like JFK All Over Again / Politics / Conspiracy Theory
By: Raul_I_Meijer
It’s been a few days since I did anything but my news aggregator, and that’s not so strange, since so much of it ‘encircled’ Jeffrey Epstein. Now that he’s supposedly died, though we have no proof of that, from an ‘apparent suicide’, there are other topics as well that we can turn to.
But let’s start with Epstein just for good measure. We still don’t have an autopsy report, though New York City Chief Medical Examiner Barbara Sampson apparently performed one on Epstein on Sunday, which private pathologist Michael Baden “observed on behalf of Epstein’s representatives”.
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Friday, August 16, 2019
Precious Metals Gone Wild! Reaching Initial Targets – Now What’s Next? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: Chris_Vermeulen
We have heard from so many of our followers and members regarding our precious metals calls and research articles. Additionally, many of our members and followers have recently asked us about our August 19 breakdown prediction for the US/Global markets. In this research post, we’ll highlight some of our expectations for the precious metals and how that relates to the potential August 19 breakdown expectations.
October 5 ADL predictive modeling forecast chart
Our incredible October 5 ADL predictive modeling chart, below, highlights just how powerful some of our proprietary price modeling tools really are. Imagine having the ability to look 10+ months into the future to be able to attempt to understand exactly what price may attempt to do and to be able to plan and prepare for these moves well ahead of the “setup”. So far, our analysis of the precious metals has been spot on and we’ll continue to try to update our members and followers as this movement continues.
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Thursday, August 15, 2019
Is Widening Yield Curve Inversion Lifting Gold Prices Up? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
The yield curve inversion just got more pronounced. Not only the spread between 10-year and 3-month Treasuries, now also the spread between 10-year and 2-year turned negative. That sends a warning signal about the state of the real economy. About a recession on the horizon. Some might argue that the yield curve’s predictive power has diminished with all the unorthodox monetary policies since the Great Recession. Yet, it’s a valid reason to worry – how does gold welcome this message?
Thursday, August 15, 2019
US Government Is Beholden To The Fed; And Vice-Versa / Politics / US Federal Reserve Bank
By: Kelsey_Williams
We hear quite a bit today about the issue of Federal Reserve independence. The crux of the argument usually centers on monetary policy executed by the Fed versus opinions of politicians and others who want and expect something different, which they believe will provide more favorable results.
President Trump has been ardently vocal in demanding that the Fed be more aggressive in cutting interest rates. He also wants, and is encouraging, action that would result in a weaker US dollar. He believes that it would be good for American businesses. His reasoning is that a weaker US dollar would make American-made goods more competitive.
Whether or not the President is correct doesn’t matter for purposes of this article. What is important is that there is a wide difference of opinion between the Federal Reserve and its current policies (re: Jerome Powell) as compared to the wishes of the United States government (re: President Trump).
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Thursday, August 15, 2019
GBP vs USD Forex Pair Swings Into Focus Amid Brexit Chaos / Currencies / British Pound
By: Submissions
On July 16th Sterling hit its 2019 low of $1.24 against the US Dollar. It wasn’t the biggest surprise, as GBP has been bouncing around the $1.25-$1.26 mark for most of July, and, indeed, sits around that mark at the time of writing one week later.The drop in Sterling’s value prompted a bit of a reaction on social media, which soon snowballed into hysteria and misinformation. The latter came from a widely shared story on Twitter, which claimed that GBP had reached its lowest rate against USD since 1985. That was, in fact, incorrect, as the Pound was buying $1.22 in January 2017.
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Thursday, August 15, 2019
US Negative Interest Rates Go Mainstream - With Some Glaring Omissions / Interest-Rates / Negative Interest Rates
By: Dan_Amerman
The discussion of negative interest rates in the United States has now officially gone mainstream, with the front page of the August 12, 2019 print edition of the Wall Street Journal carrying a prominent discussion of the possibility.
Most of the article consists of various institutional investors talking about why this could be a real possibility. However, as will be explored herein, there were three glaring omissions in the article.
1) What the real source of the negative interest rates would be.
2) The historically unprecedented profits that would be created by such a move.
3) Who those unprecedented profits would mostly go to (and it isn't to the average investor).
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Thursday, August 15, 2019
GOLD BULL RUN TREND ANALYSIS / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: Nadeem_Walayat
This is part 2/2 of my Gold price forecast update Gold Price Breakout - Trend Forecast 2019 July Update.
So the gold price has broken out of it's long-term trading range of $1370 to $1150. Which means $1370 should now act as a floor under the Gold price, else it's back into the range for several more years! Next resistance is at just above $1500 and then $1800 which is my long-term target for the Gold price as of December 2016.
Therefore, as I stated in my May analysis, as the Gold price has now overcome resistance of $1350 to $1370 then the Gold price should be propelled higher towards a target of between $1500 to $1530.
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Thursday, August 15, 2019
US Stock Market Could Fall 12% to 25% / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Chris_Vermeulen
In this last segment of our multi-part research post regarding the US Fed and the global central banks, it is becoming evident that the fear of a further market contraction is resulting in the decrease in rates and the push for additional QE functions. Our research has shown that the global economy has partially recovered from the 2008-09 credit market collapse, but the process of the recovery has resulted in a “blowout” type of event where shifting capital intents and the transition from the 19th century economic model towards a new 21st century economic model is setting up the global markets for a massive rotation event over the next 12 to 24 months – possibly longer.
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Thursday, August 15, 2019
A Level Exam Results School Live Reaction Shock 2019! / Personal_Finance / Education
By: Adnaan_Walayat
It's A Level results day today that sees over 200.000 students across England and Wales off to their local school and colleges to pick up their results, to see if they have met the conditions for their University offers or not. If not then it will spark a series of frantic calls to UCAS clearing in an attempt to get a place at likely a different University.
So we were off early to School to see what Adnaan got, will he get his predicted grades? Will he get enough to get into Warwick University? Or will the results turn out to be a shocker! Find out if it's a good or bad shock!
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