Sunday, September 01, 2019
Silver is Still Cheap Relative to Gold, Trend Forecast Update / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: Nadeem_Walayat
This is part 2/2 of my Silver Price 2019 trend forecast update - Part1 - Silver Price Tragets for 2019 - Forecast Update
So the Silver big question for 2019 is will the price be capped at resistance at $21 or like the Gold price breakout of its 5 year trading range to target the next resistance area of $25.
Silver is Still Cheap Relative to Gold
6 weeks ago ago the Gold / Silver ratio was trading at an historic extreme of 90.31, at a level not seen for over 25 years! In comparison to the historic average of 50 which on the then Gold price of $1330 would have had the Silver price trading at $26.60. Which illustrated how much of a coiled spring Silver tends to be as it has tendency to swing sharply higher rather than track the Gold price trend.
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Sunday, September 01, 2019
Fed Insider Proposes Using Fed Policy to Punish Trump / Politics / US Federal Reserve Bank
By: MoneyMetals
Everybody knows that President Donald Trump favors larger scale reductions in interest rates. He wants low-cost money injected to help stimulate the economy and stock market ahead of next year’s election.
Of course, Federal Reserve policymakers are supposed to stay out of politics and make their decisions based solely on the economic data before them. But it would be naïve to believe they don’t harbor political biases.
They have been under relentless attack by President Trump. They see his attacks as posing a threat to the so-called “independence” of the Federal Reserve. They may even fear that if he is re-elected he will threaten the existence of the Fed as an institution.
Could the Federal Reserve be deliberately withholding stimulus to try to get Trump defeated?
Sunday, September 01, 2019
Crude Oil’s Failure Leads to a Profitable Opportunity / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Nadia_Simmons
Crude oil moved sharply higher yesterday, almost touching the previous August highs, but it didn’t manage to break above them. The resistance that we outlined in the previous Oil Trading Alerts kept the rally in check, and we already see the result. Crude oil simply declines. What’s next? How far can it decline?
In short, the previous outlook remains up-to-date, simply because the situation developed in tune with what we wrote.
Of course, a daily rally appears bullish at the first sight, especially for the inexperienced traders, but this is a false signal. To be clear, a daily rally is not bearish on its own, but it’s not enough to make the situation bullish either. Let’s keep in mind that price tops have to – by definition – happen after a rally, not after a decline… So why is the something-rallied-so-it’s-going-to-rally-again way of thinking so popular? It’s easy to extrapolate the most recent trends into the future as that’s what makes sense… Emotionally. And that’s exactly what makes this business hard in the long run. One of the most difficult trading tips one needs to adhere to in order to make money is that one usually needs to act against what seems so obvious at the first sight.
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Saturday, August 31, 2019
King Dollar Global Reserve Paradox / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Jim_Willie_CB
An intriguing paradox is evident, whereby the USDollar continues to rise despite the global economic recession. In fact, it can be argued that the USDollar is rising in the past several months, because of the global recession. On a worldwide basis, the economy is struggling badly, especially in the West. Worse still, without a doubt, the rising USDollar is destroying the individual economies of smaller nations, one by one. The King Dollar is truly an economic machete. Numerous factors are at work. All contribute toward the continued rise of the USDollar until the systemic breakdown hits both the economy and the financial system. The sign of systemic breakdown is the bond rally, which has taken bond yields into negative territory. Nobody with a working cerebrum can claim that $17 trillion in sovereign bonds sporting negative yields can defend the current system as either normal or stable. The Fed Valuation Model justifies higher stock index values when bond yields are lower, but the model has no modern feature for negative rates. Eventually, and soon, the only beneficiary will be Gold & Silver, along with a few hard assets like diamonds.
Saturday, August 31, 2019
Here’s Why Rising Global Temperatures Are Very Real / Politics / Climate Change
By: Rodney_Johnson
Climate change has continued to be a big topic in the news, especially with record temperatures again this summer. Are humans the primary cause?When this first became a major issue many years ago, I initially was more skeptical of the human impact. I had studied long-term climate cycles and saw how much they’ve varied simply from natural trends. Were we big enough to impact substantially?
The first wake-up call I got was when I looked back at the key very predictable longer-term cycles. Every one of them, from very long to shorter, were pointing towards moderate cooling. Even the shorter-term sunspot cycles keep coming in lower intensity since 1959 – and more so since 1990, which has a cooling effect – and temperatures keep rising anyway!
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Saturday, August 31, 2019
What Do Crashing RV Sales Tell Us About 2020? / Economics / Auto Sector
By: Rodney_Johnson
RV sales are crashing at a year-over-year rate of 20% below sales for the same period last year. 2017 was the peak thus far and 2018 sales were 4% lower. Hence, this year’s crash is making this look like a clear top.RVs are one of our mid-life-to-retirement sectors for Boomers. Sales used to peak at age 63, but the most recent updates to the Consumer Expenditure Survey show them peaking a bit earlier, at age 59-60. That still makes it a strong growth industry into 2020-2021 for aging Boomers.
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Saturday, August 31, 2019
Why Back to School Season Should Scare You / Personal_Finance / Student Finances
By: Rodney_Johnson
It’s that time again – back to school season – when we have to drive a little slower, watch for flashing yellow signs that signal much higher ticket costs, put down our cell phones, and try to remember the rules on when to stop for school buses (always on your side of the road and, if the bus is facing you, when the road doesn’t have a median).But those things aren’t scary, they’re just good safety precautions. The worrisome parts are costs and headcount.
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Friday, August 30, 2019
Gold and Silver Bad Moon Rising / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: The_Gold_Report
Precious metals expert Michael Ballanger discusses trends in the market and his recent trades. For those of you that have followed my raves and rants over the years, you are undisputedly aware of all of my biases when it comes to almost everything: bankers, politicians, invasive species, free market suppression, entitled Millennials, and finally, the utility of precious metals in a "financial order gone wild," which is precisely where we reside today.
I sat on the stern platform of my boat looking at the moon you see rising in the photo above and over a number of well-oiled glasses of Pinot Grigio, I snapped the photo thinking that soon the sound of lamenting loons would be replaced by the torturous howl of timber wolves, a sound vivid in my memories from boyhood excursions in Algonquin Park. It is said that the most beautiful sound in all of nature is the final wail of the black swan in its dying moments, a sound so powerful that the ultra-famous rock band "Led Zeppelin" named their "Swan Song" record label after it.
Well, while financial events do not normally involve sounds, the haunting specter of seeing over 65% of all bonds issued around the world paying a negative return evokes memories of a "bad moon rising" of which ancient folklore of the lunar omen has filtered down through generation after generation. The problem here in 2019 is that NO generation has EVER encountered a financial instrument paying a negative yield because if you buy one, you have to pay the issuer to hold it. This absolute insanity is the nuclear torpedo in that is heading for the starboard side of the Good Ship "Modern Monetary Theory" as she steams headlong into the abyss becoming rapidly known as the "Japanification" of all things financial.
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Friday, August 30, 2019
Manchester Airport Terminal 1 Arrivals Car Park Exit Chaos / Personal_Finance / Travel & Holidays
By: N_Walayat
Here's what to expect if your driving to pick someone up from Manchester Airport Terminal 1 Arrivals car park. As your likely to have to take your estimated timings for a quick pickup with a pinch of salt as the arrivals car park can soon get jammed with disembarking passengers all attempting to leave at the same time! The ticket machines near the exit barriers with a long queues to pay leads to frustrated drivers pressing their horns fearing that they will get hit with a penalty for not exiting in time. Watch the video so your not caught by surprise.
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Friday, August 30, 2019
Gold: the Ultimate Recession Hedge 20 Years after Brown Bottom? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
The new Alchemist went out at the end of July. And making the choice from its articles is always hard. What gems can we learn from the latest publication of the LBMA? We invite you to read our today’s article and find out!
Gordon’s Brown Bottom, 20 Years On
The first article we would like to summarize for you is “Gordon’s Brown Bottom, 20 Years On” by Adrian Ash, Director of Research at BullionVault.
July 2019 marked 20 year since the Brown Bottom. If you did not hear about it, in July 1999, the UK began its infamous gold auctions, more than halving the nation’s gold reserves in three years. The decision, and its timing, is a mysterious error. One thing is that it was announced two months in advance which sent prices 10 percent lower before the first sale began. Why would a seller want to do that?
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Friday, August 30, 2019
Stock Market S&P 500 Nearing Previous Highs, What’s Next? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Paul_Rejczak
Wednesday’s trading session didn’t change much. Stocks extended their short-term consolidation following Monday’s rebound off a support level. The S&P 500 index continues to trade within a four-week-long consolidation after the early August decline. Was Monday’s advance an upward reversal or just upward correction before another leg down?
The U.S. stock market indexes gained 0.4-1.0% on Wednesday, as they retraced their Tuesday’s decline. The S&P 500 index got back to the short-term local lows on Friday and then it bounced off that support level. The broad stock market’s gauge is now 4.7% below July the 26th record high of 3,027.98. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 1.0% and the Nasdaq Composite gained 0.4% on Wednesday.
The nearest important resistance level of the S&P 500 index is at 2,900-2,920, marked by the recent local highs. On the other hand, the support level is at 2,850-2,860. The next support level is at 2,820-2,825, marked by the previous lows.
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Friday, August 30, 2019
The Key to a Sustainable Economy Is 5,000 Years Old / Economics / Economic Theory
By: Ellen_Brown
We are again reaching the point in the business cycle known as “peak debt,” when debts have compounded to the point that their cumulative total cannot be paid. Student debt, credit card debt, auto loans, business debt and sovereign debt are all higher than they have ever been. As economist Michael Hudson writes in his provocative 2018 book, “…and forgive them their debts,” debts that can’t be paid won’t be paid. The question, he says, is how they won’t be paid.
Mainstream economic models leave this problem to “the invisible hand of the market,” assuming trends will self-correct over time. But while the market may indeed correct, it does so at the expense of the debtors, who become progressively poorer as the rich become richer. Borrowers go bankrupt and banks foreclose on the collateral, dispossessing the debtors of their homes and their livelihoods. The houses are bought by the rich at distress prices and are rented back at inflated prices to the debtors, who are then forced into wage peonage to survive. When the banks themselves go bankrupt, the government bails them out. Thus the market corrects, but not without government intervention. That intervention just comes at the end of the cycle to rescue the creditors, whose ability to buy politicians gives them the upper hand. According to free-market apologists, this is a natural cycle akin to the weather, which dates all the way back to the birth of modern economics in ancient Greece and Rome.
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Friday, August 30, 2019
Will Silver’s Surprising Summer Surge Continue? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: MoneyMetals
Just a few weeks ago, silver naysayers told us we’d have to wait months, or even years, before the market made a big move. Now they are eating their words!
The white-hot metal surged past $18.50/oz this morning to reach its highest level in more than two years.
Silver is up more than 13% in the month of August alone, a time when many precious metals analysts had expected summer doldrums. Even some long-term silver bulls became short-term bears.
The widespread pessimism toward silver is totally understandable given its performance characteristics over the past few years.
Friday, August 30, 2019
Europe on the brink, World on a Edge – Stocks Trading as a 15% correction Draws Near / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: QUANTO
These are brutal times. Stocks are still at highs while the underlying economy is slipping away sharply. United States is slipping into a recession which they can ill afford. The country runs a debt of over 20 trillion. CBO has forecast the future deficit to be in range of $1 trillion for the next 10 years. Never before has the country seen such extended budget shortfall. Over and above that, they cannot finance the deficit easily because of the existing debt. What the US desperately needs is a stock market correction to pummel money back into bonds which is exactly what is happening. Without a stock market correction, US may default on payments on its debt.
In times like these, it is best to trade with our profitable trading system called QUANTO. To use this system, you need to contact us
In Europe things are getting worse. EUROPE centric funds are seeing record outflows. Never in the last 5 years has such a large amount of capital flown out of Europe based ETF.
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Friday, August 30, 2019
Price Of Gold Is A Reflection of US Dollar; Not US Dollar Index / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: Kelsey_Williams
Several articles by others recently have pointed out the apparent inconsistency of the US dollar’s action relative to the price of gold. For example, over the past year the US dollar Index has continued to strengthen, while gold has also risen in price.
That would seem to indicate that the US dollar’s value is not a primary factor in determining the price of gold. As we have said, though, the US dollar Index is not the same thing as the US dollar. The two are not interchangeable.
The US dollar Index (see Gold – US Dollar Vs. US Dollar Index) is a comparison of the US dollar versus a basket of other currencies (Euro, Yen, etc.) on an exchange rate basis . As such, it does not tell us anything about gold, positive or negative.
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Thursday, August 29, 2019
Energy Sector Setting Up For Another Big Trade / Commodities / Energy Resources
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Our research team has been nailing some really great trades recently in Gold, Silver, Crude Oil, ETFs, and many other market segments. Some of these trades have resulted in fantastic gains of +10% to +20% for our members.
One trade in particular that we called back in July was the Energy trade in Crude Oil and ERY. Specifically, we suggested that Crude Oil would fall based on our ADL predictive modeling system and that ERY would set up a very nice trade with targets set relatively close to the basing/bottom pattern. But first, be sure to opt-in to our free market forecast signals newsletter
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Thursday, August 29, 2019
Precious Metals Complex Super Bases / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: Rambus_Chartology
The most important part of investing is knowing if you are in a bull or bear market. It’s always much easier to trade in the direction of the main trend. There are times when a market is reversing from bull to bear or vise versa that there is not a lot of confirmation the turn has completed which leaves one apprehensive about getting fully invested. The more clues you can get that the major trend has reversed the more confident you can become to put your hard earned capital to work.
Over the last year or two we have been slowly gathering clues on the PM complex that is reversing from the 2011 bear market to the new bull market which has just started to takeoff. There are still many investors that can’t believe the 2011 bear market is over and are gun shy to put capital to work in the PM complex. This is perfectly understandable because the job of a bear market is to crush any optimism one may have had with the PM complex.
Tonight I would like to show you some super bases that will leave no question in your mind that the PM complex has indeed reversed course from the 2011 bear market to a new and long term bull market that will have many years to run. I know you are tired of me saying, “big patterns lead to big moves.” but the charts to follow will show you exactly what I mean by that statement.
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Thursday, August 29, 2019
Trump’s Trade War Is Over and Nobody Won / Politics / Protectionism
By: Patrick_Watson
“You break it, you own it.”Then-Secretary of State Colin Powell cited this Pottery Barn rule back in 2002. He was advising President George W. Bush of the consequences should an Iraq invasion go badly.
In fact, Pottery Barn has no such rule. You can go in their stores and handle the merchandise all you wish. They see occasional breakage as a cost of doing business.
But Powell still chose a good metaphor. Presidents aren’t just shopping for knickknacks when they make economic and foreign policy decisions. They have real, sometimes deadly consequences.
Bush should have listened more closely.
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Thursday, August 29, 2019
UK Caravan Park Holidays - Look Inside Bude North Cornwall Coast Resort Caravan / Personal_Finance / Holidays
By: Anika_Walayat
It's not too late to book a short-break holiday at a UK caravan resort for summer 2019. Here we take look at what to expect from typical caravan at a Cornwall holiday caravan park resort. Where this caravan is on the North coast of Cornwall at the Bude Holiday Resort situated 1 mile north of Bude Town. This is a 2 bedroom caravan, and as you will see it's literally like a tardis, how do they cram so much into such a small space? Find out what to expect in terms of facilities and sleeping arrangements.
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Thursday, August 29, 2019
There’s Only One Group of Stocks a Sane Investor Would Buy Now / Companies / Investing 2019
By: Robert_Ross
Fear of missing out is a dangerous drug.
And right now, it’s luring investors in.
Investors know US stocks have gone up nearly 200% over the past decade—and are now near all-time highs. They know this is the longest bull market in US history.
At the same time, they’re watching other people make money and thinking, “I need to get in on this.”
Problem is, investors are piling into a very expensive—and risky—market.
That includes $14.4 billion during a single week in June. It was the largest inflow of money in nearly two years.
Unfortunately, history shows a lot of these people are setting themselves up to buy high and sell low.
I’ll share some exceptions in a bit.