Friday, September 06, 2019
Globalization Hits a Brick Wall Named Trump / Economics / Global Economy
By: Patrick_Watson
Until about 50 years ago, people paid attention to the area where they lived. They read local papers, shopped at local merchants, and socialized at local events.
Technology ended all that. Now we get our news from the internet. We buy imported goods. We converse on social media with friends thousands of miles away.
This “globalization” process changed the world, sometimes for the better but with significant side effects. Hence, today’s dissatisfaction.
Now, technology is swinging the pendulum back. Globalization is going in reverse. And again, the process will hurt some people.
Friday, September 06, 2019
Can Crude Oil Price Stay Above $50 To Support Producers Expectations? / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Recent news suggests that oil producers are attempting to increase production levels after failing to attempt to push prices higher by cutting production levels. Globally, oil producers want to see oil prices rise above $65 ppb in an effort to support profit and production cost expectations. The real issue for the nation/states that rely on oil production/sales is that the global economy may not cooperate with their expectations over the next 24+ months. Before we get into the details, be sure to opt-in to my Free Market Forecast and Trade Ideas Newsletter so stay on top of these market moves.
On August 6th, 2019, we posted this article suggesting that Natural Gas and Crude Oil were setting up diverging trades.
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Friday, September 06, 2019
China SSEC Stock Market Fundamentals and Trend Analysis Forecast / Stock-Markets / Chinese Stock Market
By: Nadeem_Walayat
"The Trade War is Over - And the winner is China" writes the clueless mainstream press just prior to the announcement of new Trump trade tariffs. This is part 2 of 2 of my latest analysis on the prospects of the Chinese stock market. (Part 1 - Trump Trade Tariffs US War with China Mega-trend Impact on Stock Markets). Note the whole of this analysis was first made available to Patrons who support my work China SSEC Stock Market Fundamentals and Trend Analysis Forecast.
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Friday, September 06, 2019
The Stock Market Rally is Almost Over, Next Comes the Big Drop / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Graham_Summers
With this morning’s breakout, stocks (blue line) have finally moved to within spitting distance of their upside target as predicted by the credit markets (black line).
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Friday, September 06, 2019
When Most Investors Believe Something, It’s Usually Wrong / InvestorEducation / Trader Psychology
By: Jared_Dillian
You have probably heard that $15 trillion of bonds are trading with negative yields. That’s 25% of all sovereign bonds outstanding.
Lots of people are furious about this—but it’s no use getting mad at the market.
Lots of people say it doesn’t make sense.
It makes sense to me, and to a few other people.
If you see something in the market that doesn’t make sense, it’s usually best to stay away, rather than picking a fight with it.
We’re not in uncharted territory here.
Thursday, September 05, 2019
The Great Gold and Silver Precious Metals Melt-Up / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: The_Gold_Report
Technical analyst Clive Maund presents his dystopian view of the future. The distinguishing feature of fiat money systems is that they are licentious—they are created by corrupt politicians so that they can act without restraint by, for example, promising the citizens the earth in order to improve their chances of being re-elected. The population can pick up the tab later in the form of devalued money that buys them less. The current dollar fiat money system was created by then President Richard Nixon in 1971, hardly an edifying character, and, thinking about it, it was very apt that it was him who created it by getting rid of the gold standard.
It is inherent in fiat money systems that they self-destruct, since they are essentially fraudulent, their modus operandi being to enable politicians to go on endless spending binges, knowing that society at large will foot the bill as a result of their money being devalued. The current fiat money system, which can be dated back to the ending of the gold standard in 1971, is 48 years old and in its death throes. What happens with fiat is that money becomes increasingly worthless at an accelerating rate until it enters the final terminal phase which is a hyperinflationary vortex that results in it becoming utterly worthless—and we are right on the doorstep of that phase now.
When the global financial crisis hit in 2008—2009 the world was at a crossroads—it is was the last chance to clean up the mess and get back to the straight and narrow. Cleaning up the mess would have involved letting the banks and brokerage houses that created it go bust, but those responsible for it didn't want to "face the music" and they had the political influence to make sure they didn't have to. So, society at large had to pick up the tab for their misdemeanors. They were bailed out at huge cost and the system put on life support in the form of massive fiat creation—quantitative easing—which enabled them to drop interest rates to zero to stop debt compounding and then use the cheap money to engage in an orgy of speculation, while the "little guy" continued to be charged usurious rates if he wanted to borrow any money.
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Thursday, September 05, 2019
Here’s How You Build a Bond Portfolio That Works / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Jared_Dillian
When you invest in bonds, do you buy individual bonds or bond funds?
- Unless you have a lot of money, you should probably buy bond funds.
- And even if you do have a lot of money, you should probably buy bond funds.
Let me explain.
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Thursday, September 05, 2019
UK Surprise Decision to Thwart a No-Deal Brexit Changes Market Dynamics / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2019
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Our August 19th prediction of a market breakdown, as well as our continued research suggesting a breakdown in price was the most likely outcome, is a combination of technical analysis, predictive modeling and our understanding of the market dynamics at play throughout the world. But, when news like this hits (global economic news, surprise news announcements or any type of positive or negative massive news event) the dynamics of the global markets can shift quite suddenly which we want to explain here. Before we get into the details, be sure to opt-in to my Free Market Forecast and Trade Ideas Newsletter so stay on top of these market moves.
Just a few days ago, it appeared that the US/China trade deal was still 30+ days away from any type of continued discussion and the UK Brexit was likely to take place this week and next. With US earnings season setting up in September, headed into the holiday season throughout the globe, we believed the downside price move probability was far greater than the upside. Then, out of almost nowhere, the No-Deal Brexit deal is sidetracked and the British Pound rallies dramatically on the news.
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Thursday, September 05, 2019
Uber’s Nightmare Has Just Started / Companies / Self Driving Cars
By: Stephen_McBride
“Never get in cars with strangers…”
Did your parents tell you that when you were a kid?
These days, people get in cars with strangers all the time... only they use a smartphone “app” to match them with a specific stranger to drive them around.
As you may have guessed, I’m referring to Uber, the world’s biggest ride-sharing company.
It’s like a taxi company except it doesn’t own any cars. It doesn’t employ any drivers either. Instead, it runs an app that connects drivers with people who need a ride.
Thursday, September 05, 2019
Will Fed Actions Create Dow 40,000 - And Triple Gold Prices? / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2019
By: Dan_Amerman
The fears of imminent recession have been multiplying, and this has led to 1) plunging long term bond yields; 2) yield curve inversions and near inversions; and 3) a fearful Federal Reserve going into "dovish" mode in the attempt to prevent such a recession.
We've been here before, or at least we have with regard to those three particular components in combination. And the result was a tripling of already elevated stock market values in a little more than two years. With that tripling then being followed by a historic tripling of inflation-adjusted gold prices over the next decade.
History does not exactly repeat itself - but it does contain some powerful and surprising lessons that are well worth studying, particularly during times of market volatility.
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Thursday, September 05, 2019
Brexit Incontinent Mendacity / Politics / BrExit
By: Raul_I_Meijer
No, I’m still not taking sides in the Brexit proceedings. I have no horse in that fight. As I’ve said 1000 times, I can fully imagine that a country might want to leave the trappings of the EU. But just as often I’ve said that the way the Tories have gone about leaving appears deeply flawed. They have never seemed to take serious the amount of effort required for a smooth exit.
And after being an EU member for 40+ years, that effort could only be gigantic. But not one moment during Theresa May’s ‘reign’, let alone under Boris, have I gotten the impression that the UK is ready. They’ve spent their time fighting amongst each other about the shape and form Brexit should take, but neglected the practical implications of changing 1000s of rules and regulations and treaties and laws.
And sure, maybe a lot of work was done in secret, can’t very well do nothing at all, but none of that would matter very much; you need to show that you’re ready, not merely suggest it. And from what I can gather from the latest numbers I’ve seen, expectations are still that 50-60% of trucks (lorries) will not have the required paperwork once the UK leaves.
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Thursday, September 05, 2019
Silver Is Still A Must-Buy At These Levels / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: Hubert_Moolman
We are coming into the traditional season for intense silver rallies. With silver recently making a really important breakout, things are setting up for a memorable period in the silver markets.
Furthermore, the decision to buy silver for the long-term is basically a no-brainer given that the Gold/Silver ratio is still around 80. Below, is a long-term Gold/Silver ratio chart as well as a Silver chart (from macrotrends.net), to illustrate this:
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Thursday, September 05, 2019
Gold as a Strategic Asset - in 2019 and Beyond / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
Recently, the World Gold Council published a 2019 edition of a report on gold as a strategic asset. The industry organization released later the UK edition as well. Plenty of food for thought. How can the learnings from these publications strengthen our investment decisions?
Why Gold?
Why investors should add gold, that does not bear any yield, to their portfolios? There are a few really good reasons. First, gold is a source of long-term capital gains, and the gold market is both deep and liquid (liquidity is an important but sometimes forgotten factor when establishing a strategic holding by investors). The yellow metal has not only outperformed all major fiat currencies, but also bonds or commodities. According to the WGC, the price of gold has increased by an average of 10 percent per year since 1971 when gold began to be freely traded following the collapse of Bretton Woods. It makes gold’s long-term returns comparable to stocks.
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Wednesday, September 04, 2019
Are Central Bankers Taking Sides the in US 2020 Presidential Election? / Politics / Central Banks
By: MoneyMetals
Individual investors are nervous about the stock market and the possibility of recession.
Meanwhile, institutional money from banks and hedge funds is keeping a bid under equities, pushing stock prices higher after every minor dip. Together with the “Plunge Protection Team,” they are keeping the wheels from coming off the stock market cart.
The question is whether that will continue. Or, to be more precise, will we see the monetary stimulus typically expected from the Fed during an economic slowdown, or will central bankers try to torpedo Trump’s re-election campaign as a Fed insider has just proposed?
President Donald Trump is increasingly critical of the Federal Reserve and chairman Jerome Powell for refusing to cut interest rates rapidly enough. He wants to place the blame for any recession and falling stock prices on the central bank and not on the trade war with China.
Wednesday, September 04, 2019
The Inverted Yield Curve Is Actually a Good Sign for Stocks / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: Robert_Ross
August 14 was the worst day of the year for stocks.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average plunged 800 points in a single day.
The stock market plunged because of a serious economic warning sign called a yield curve inversion.
A yield curve inversion is a canary in the coal mine for the economy. It’s happened before every recession in the last 50 years.
However, there’s no reason to panic.
Wednesday, September 04, 2019
Rising US Dollar Mutes Precious Metals Moves and Puts Pressures on Global Markets / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2019
By: Chris_Vermeulen
The Rising US Dollar continues to shift the investing landscape as a stronger US Dollar mutes the price acceleration in precious metals and continue to put pricing pressures on the global economy. The current levels of the US Dollar Index, above 99, clearly illustrates how the shifting landscape of the global economies has changed. Prior to 2014/2015, when a minor currency/market crisis hit China and capital controls were installed in China to help reduce capital outflows, the US Dollar Index average price range was between 73 and 90. Of course, the US Dollar Index weakened in 2008-09 and rotated within this range after 2010 – settling near 80 near the beginning of 2014. Before we get into the details, be sure to opt-in to my Free Market Forecast and Trade Ideas Newsletter
So, this impressive rally in the US Dollar throughout the 2015-2016 US Presidential election cycle, as well as the continued rally since the lows near December 2018, is not something that we can simply chalk up to normal price rotation. Something dramatic has shifted in the global markets since 2015/2016 and the new trend is US Dollar strength.
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Wednesday, September 04, 2019
Prospecting For Silver During Recessions / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: Kelsey_Williams
I am continually amazed at how every turn in the numbers and the economy seems to present new information that is bullish for gold and silver. The train of logic becomes downright laughable at times.
Other than entertaining in a perverse sort of way, the various proclamations and conclusions end up sooner or later in confliction with each other.
One of the more glaring examples involves buying gold and silver because of the possibility of a recession. Why?
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Wednesday, September 04, 2019
Gold Price Bull Run Trend Forecast Analysis Update - Video / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: Nadeem_Walayat
This is part 2 of 2 of my gold price trend forecast analysis update, (Part 1 https://youtu.be/u1yAB5s8BKQ)
Also this analysis was first made available to patrons who support my work (Gold Price Breakout - Trend Forecast 2019 July Update). So for immediate first access to ALL of my analysis and trend forecasts then do consider becoming a Patron by supporting my work for just $3 per month
So the gold price has broken out of it's long-term trading range of $1370 to $1150. Which means $1370 should now act as a floor under the Gold price, else it's back into the range for several more years! Next resistance is at just above $1500 and then $1800 which is my long-term target for the Gold price as of December 2016.
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Wednesday, September 04, 2019
The Reason Stocks Will Soar in the Next 20 Months / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: Stephen_McBride
A reader asked me last week if it’s time to head for the exits.There’s a lot of fear in the markets right now. Folks are nervous. Maybe you’re nervous.
The past two weeks have been rough for the stock market. The S&P 500 recently suffered its worst day of the year. And stocks have now dipped 4% since hitting record highs in late July.
If you watch any financial TV, you’ve surely heard this blamed on a troubling economic signal triggered last week called the “inverted yield curve.”
I’ll tell you in a moment why it’s actually a good sign for stocks. But before that, let’s clarify what the inverted yield curve is… and why it matters to you.
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Wednesday, September 04, 2019
Precious Metals Encounter Long-Term Resistance / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: Jordan_Roy_Byrne
A few weeks ago we wrote that precious metals were at risk of a correction.
First, they powered higher. But last week they ran into technical resistance levels that date back well beyond only a few years.
This is true for Gold, Silver as well as the miner ETFs: GDX and GDXJ.
Starting with Gold, we can see that it has struggled to get through $1550/oz. That’s not a surprise as we pointed out this level as resistance since Gold surpassed $1370/oz.
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