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Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Category: US Bonds

The analysis published under this category are as follows.

Interest-Rates

Sunday, February 07, 2021

TREASURY YIELDS SUGGEST A TOP WITHIN THE NEXT 6 MONTHS / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Chris_Vermeulen

Historically, whenever the Treasury Yields fall below zero, then recover back above zero, the US/Global markets reach some peak in price levels within 3 to 8+ months.  My research team and I believe the actions of the global markets may be setting up for a future peak in price levels sometime in next 6 months. We believe this will start when the Treasury Yields cross above the “Breakdown Threshold”.

expect A Continued Rally As Long As Yields Stay Below Certain Levels

In 1998, a very brief drop below zero in yields prompted a minor pullback in the markets before the bigger top setup in 2000.  This pullback in price aligned with what we are calling the “Breakdown Threshold” level on Yields near 1.20.  After the Yields crossed this Threshold, briefly, in 1999, they fell back below this level and the US stock market continued to rally toward an ultimate peak in 2000.

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Interest-Rates

Wednesday, November 18, 2020

US Bond Market: "When Investors Should Worry" / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: EWI

The cost of insuring against default has been declining – what this may suggest

You may recall hearing a lot about “credit default swaps” during the 2007-2009 financial crisis.

As a reminder, a CDS is similar to an insurance contract, providing a bond investor with protection against a default.

In the past several months, the cost of that protection has fallen dramatically.

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Interest-Rates

Friday, November 13, 2020

Eyeing Upside in US Bonds TLT / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Mike_Paulenoff

Is it a coincidence that 10-Year YIELD climbed to 1.00% from 0.75% in the days following Pfizer's vaccine announcement (and perhaps in reaction to the apparent result of the Presidential Senate elections), and then hit a wall?

Not if we consider the big bad Fed lurking out there, scarfing up all Treasury supply even if the economic data appear to be stronger than expected.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Interest-Rates

Wednesday, November 04, 2020

How to Stay Ahead of Price Turns in the U.S. Long Bond Market / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: EWI

This method of analysis applies to any widely traded financial market

Back in August, the volatility index for Treasury debt was at an all-time low, indicating record commitment to the idea the markets would continue to calmly rise.

Indeed, here's a July 27 Bloomberg headline:

Bond Investors Are Getting Fresh Reasons to Stay Record Bullish

Bloomberg mentioned U.S.-China tensions as a reason that investors would seek a safe haven in bonds, hence, pushing prices higher.

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Interest-Rates

Thursday, July 16, 2020

Fiscal Cliffs and the Self-destructing Treasury / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Michael_Pento

We can all be very confident that there will be no change to monetary policy for a very, very long time. But there is a fiscal cliff coming—and indeed has already begun.

 It is clear that Mr. Powell is all-in on his unlimited QE and ZIRP. And, that he is "not even thinking about thinking about raising interest rates." Therefore, the stock market does not have to worry about a contraction in the rate of money printing any time soon. However, equities could soon plunge due to the crash in the amount of fiscal support offered to the economy.

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Interest-Rates

Saturday, June 27, 2020

U.S. Long Bond: Let's Review the "Upward Point of Exhaustion" / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: EWI


Here's an update on the trend of 30-year U.S. Treasuries since the historic early March price moves

Back in early March, the behavior of the bond market was reminiscent of what unfolded during the depths of the 2007-2009 financial crisis.

Prices and yields were making major moves in a short period of time.

On March 5, the U.S. Treasury long bond closed at 173^30.0. The very next day, on March 6, the long bond rallied to 180^19.0, a whopping 6+point move, reaching a new all-time high.

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Interest-Rates

Saturday, April 11, 2020

Federal Reserve Notes Are Now “Backed” by Junk Bonds / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: MoneyMetals

Wild price action and unprecedented interventions once again characterized this holiday-shortened trading week. 

Oil prices whipsawed lower Thursday on concerns about expected oil production cuts from Russia and Saudi Arabia.  But the general trend for most other assets, including metals and equities, was up – way up.

Stocks finished out the week with the major averages posting their biggest weekly gains in decades in the space of just four trading days.  Investors went on a buying spree based on hopes that we will soon see a definitive peak in coronavirus cases and begin the process of restarting the economy. 

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Interest-Rates

Thursday, November 14, 2019

Is Yield Emerging Out Of A 38-Year Bear Market? / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Mike_Paulenoff

Yield has been in a bear market for 38 years. Is that about to end?

The 10-Year Treasury Yield has backed up from the Sep-Oct lows at 1.43% and 1.51% to a high at 1.97% last week. Is this a mere recovery "rally" in a still dominant 38-year bear market? Or is it a secondary low -- i.e., double-bottom -- 3+ years after the July 2016 historic low at 1.32%?

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Interest-Rates

Friday, October 18, 2019

US Treasury Bonds Pause Near Resistance Before The Next Rally / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Chris_Vermeulen

Our research team believes the US Treasuries and the US Dollar will continue to strengthen over the next 2 to 6+ weeks as foreign market and emerging market credit and debt concerns outweigh any concerns originating from the US economy or political theater.  Overall, the major global economies will likely continue to see strength related to their currencies and debt instruments simply because the foreign market and emerging markets are dramatically more fragile than the more mature major global economies.

We believe the US Treasuries may surprise investors by rallying from current levels, near price resistance, to levels above $151 on the TLT chart. 

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Interest-Rates

Wednesday, September 11, 2019

Now That Bonds Have Pulled Back As Expected, Maybe We Can Set Up Another Rally / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Avi_Gilburt

I think this market has been providing many investors with whipsaw and head aches, which has also caused much head scratching. (And, yes, that little itch may be telling you something.)

Back in November of 2018, no one even considered the possibility of a bond rally because the Fed was raising rates. And, recently, no one even considered the possibility of any type of top in bonds because the Fed is now lowering rates. Has anyone considered that maybe the Fed does not control the bond market? (See my prior articles for thoughts on this).

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Interest-Rates

Thursday, September 05, 2019

Here’s How You Build a Bond Portfolio That Works / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Jared_Dillian

When you invest in bonds, do you buy individual bonds or bond funds?

  • Unless you have a lot of money, you should probably buy bond funds.
  • And even if you do have a lot of money, you should probably buy bond funds.

Let me explain.

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Interest-Rates

Tuesday, September 03, 2019

Looking For A US Bond Market Top / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Avi_Gilburt

Those that have followed my bond analysis since November have made quite a bit of money. While the stock market is basically in the same place it was back in the early fall of 2018 when we went long bonds, TLT has rallied from our entry in the 112/113 region in TLT to a high of almost 149.

Let me take a moment to recap my recent history and perspective on bonds. For those that followed our work over the years, you would know that we called for a top to the bond market on June 27, 2016, with the market striking its highs within a week of our call. Right after that top call, TLT dropped 22%, until we saw the bottoming structure develop in late 2018.

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Interest-Rates

Sunday, August 25, 2019

If You Don’t Understand Bonds, You Don’t Understand Investing / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Jared_Dillian

The first thing I read about investing wasn’t actually a book. It was a pamphlet that I got somewhere, 23 years ago.

The pamphlet said you should invest in bonds as well as stocks. It said bonds went up when interest rates went down, and vice versa. It didn’t go into any more detail.

Well, I did what the pamphlet said, even though I had no idea what the hell I was doing, and I wouldn’t figure out for a few more years why it was a good idea.

I suspect a lot of people don’t take that advice on diversification simply because they don’t know what the hell they are doing.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Interest-Rates

Friday, August 16, 2019

When the US Bond Market Bubble Blows Up! / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Gary_Tanashian

Amazing isn’t it? It was only back in H2 2018 when everybody but you (because you are as smart as I think you are or because you read NFTRH or nftrh.com) and me was unbelievably bearish about the TREASURY BOND BEAR MARKET!!!

Today… not so much. The herd is absolutely pile driving bonds right now.

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Interest-Rates

Wednesday, August 14, 2019

You Have to Buy Bonds Even When Interest Rates Are Low / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Jared_Dillian

Interest rates are currently low.

That is by far the biggest concern among bond investors. They are drowning in worry about low interest rates and their effect on bonds. So let’s address that.

Saying interest rates are currently low is another way of saying that bonds are expensive—which makes people not want to invest in bonds. Fair enough.

Stocks are also expensive—but you invest in those!
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Interest-Rates

Sunday, August 11, 2019

Gold and the Bond Yield Continuum / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Gary_Tanashian

Have you heard the news? US Treasury bonds are sky rocketing as it turns out there is no inflation amid a global central bank NIRP-a-thon and race to the currency bottom. Going the other way, our 30yr Treasury yield Continuum is burrowing southward.

If you check out yesterday’s post you’ll see proof that the 2018 NFTRH view that people should tune out the bond experts instructing BOND BEAR MARKET!! was 100% on target.

But today the din is coming from the opposite pole. Everywhere you look on the financial websites it’s now about tanking yields, decelerating growth, trade war damage and deflation. Here is the 30 year bond yield (TYX), which is front and center in this hysteria (click the charts below for the clearest view). That is one impulsive looking drop.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Interest-Rates

Saturday, August 10, 2019

EURODOLLAR futures above 2016 highs: FED to cut over 100 bps quickly / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: QUANTO

The sceptre of recesion is growing worldwide. German industrial production registered its biggest annual decline in almost a decade when it reported numbers in June. We covered it here The result was country’s flattest yield curve since the financial crisis.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Interest-Rates

Wednesday, August 07, 2019

Are You Still Trying To “Fade” The Bond Market Rally? / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Avi_Gilburt

For weeks, if not months, I have been reading one bearish bond article after another. In fact, many of these same writers have been arguing with me for months about the bond rally I expected back in November of 2018. One suggests that this rally is really a “fake,” whereas another has been strongly suggesting that investors fade this rally, with many more supporting their opinions. The problem is that these analysts have been trying to “fade” this rally for the last 10-15% up. Yet, I will gladly bank my “fake” 20% profits on this trade.

As each week goes by, I continue to chuckle about how many people do not understand the context of the markets upon which they opine. Remember how certain analysts and investors were that rates were only headed higher back in November of 2018?

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Interest-Rates

Friday, August 02, 2019

Post FED US Bond Market Yield Spread Falls Further: Risk Aversion is at the Door / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: QUANTO

All Powell needed to do was cut rates and to soften the blow on the short end of the curve, he needed to speak of the strong economy and that would have controlled the 1 month and 3 month and 2 year yields. Instead he ended up confusing about recovery and talking of nonsensicall comical terms like insurance cut etc. These are jargons that one should never use.

The reaction from the bond market was immediate as the 1 month and 3 month yield jumped sharply. Money was flowing out to the long end which is exactly what Powell didnt want to happen when he said "inflation gets baked in to bond yields". Even as he was saying, that is what was happening. We take a look at some of the charts which define and go beyond normal technical and trend lines for forex. We have always suggested: NEVER TRADE FOREX ON TECHNICAL INDICATORS. THEY ARE LAGGING. TO LOOK BACK AND TRADE FORWARD IS FOOLISHNESS.

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Interest-Rates

Wednesday, June 05, 2019

Bond Market Shows Us The Power Of The Dark Side / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Avi_Gilburt

First, I want to begin this article by thanking all those who read my articles for the amazing outpouring of support and prayers for my wife who is recovering from a freak accident. So, with her sleeping right now, I thought I would pen another article to at least keep myself somewhat busy.

Over the years, I have published many price trend change expectations which have hit quite well. Some examples include the top to gold in 2011 at 1915 (with gold topping at 1921), the bottom in the dollar in 2011 (with an expectation of a multi-year rally to within pennies of our target struck six years later), many major turning points in the S&P500, and many other calls throughout the last 8 years I have been publishing my market calls.

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