Monday, September 16, 2019
Is the Stocks Bull Market Nearing an End? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Donald_W_Dony
The current bull market has advanced for 10 years. Is it near the end of its run? How much more upside is left?
This is a question that we receive from investors at an increasing rate over the last couple of years.
Our answer is not definitive, but is based on long-term models that continually illustrate the same approximate conclusion.
Our first model is constructed on 130+ years of data. It is based on the relative performance between deflationary assets (Dow Jones Industrial Average) verses inflationary assets (Commodity Research Bureau), or the Dow verses the CRB.
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Monday, September 16, 2019
US Stock Market Indexes Continue to Rally Within A Defined Range / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Chris_Vermeulen
This week ended with the S&P, Dow Industrials and Nasdaq stalling near recent highs. From a technical perspective, both Thursday and Friday setup small range price bars (Doji candles or small Spinning Top type bars) after the upside price move on Wednesday. These are indicative of price consolidation and indecision.
The news events that initiated this rally, nearly a week ago, continue to drive sentiment in the markets. Yet the news from the ECB that new stimulus efforts would begin with $20 Billion Euros monthly invested in assets until they decide it is not required any longer suggests the EU is desperate to support extended growth and some renewed inflation. This move by the EU pushed banks and the finance sector higher while the US stock market stalled near the end of the week.
At these lofty levels, almost all of our indicators and predictive modeling systems are suggesting the US stock markets are well within an overbought mode. Of course, the markets can continue in this mode for extended periods of time as central banks and external efforts to support the asset/stock market continues, at some point investors/traders will recognize the imbalance in price/demand/supply as a fear of a price contraction.
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Monday, September 16, 2019
What If Gold Is NOT In A New Bull Market? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: Kelsey_Williams
What if it’s not a new bull market for gold? What if gold prices are going lower – not higher?
Think it can’t happen? Think again.
In December 1987, gold prices stood at just over $500.00 per ounce. They had been on a tear for the previous three years after hitting a post-peak low of just under $300.00 per ounce in February 1985.
The increase in gold’s price of $200.00 per ounce may not sound like much, but it represents a sixty-seven percent increase over that three year period. Coming on the heels of a similar percentage decline after reaching an all-time high of $850.00 per ounce in January 1980, it was a welcome salve for those who had been wounded so severely.
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Monday, September 16, 2019
A History Lesson For Pundits Who Don’t Believe Stocks Are Overvalued / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Harry_Dent
Two things should be obvious: We are in a totally artificial recovery due only to global printing of $13 trillion and more recently, tax cuts; and this is now the longest rally and economic recovery in U.S. exceeding 10 years.There has been a recession every 10 years since I was a kid: 1962, 1970, 1973-1975, 1980-1982, 1990-1991, 2001, and most recently 2008-2009.
The sunspot cycle has captured them all and that has averaged a little over 10 years since 1900. That cycle is near a bottom and is not due to turn up until at least late 2020 and more likely 2021 or later.
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Monday, September 16, 2019
The Disconnect Between Millennials and Real Estate / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Rodney_Johnson
A couple of weeks ago, I wrote about the tribulations associated with selling a home. We were in the thick of inspections, appraisals, etc. As we sold our home, and worked on a separate home purchase at the same time.Then our home sale fell through, which killed my purchase. While I might not be heeding Harry’s advice to be real estate free, I’m also not so bullheaded as to own two homes that function as primary residences.
Just like baseball, there’s no crying in real estate. We wiped the slate clean and started over. A new buyer showed up within 10 days.
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Monday, September 16, 2019
Capitalizing on Changing Demographics / Stock-Markets / Demographics
By: Robert_Ross
Part of it has to do with where we live. South Central Texas is a thriving, job-creating area, and it draws millions of young workers, so children seem to be everywhere. If you’re looking for a place with adult-friendly restaurants and theaters, this isn’t it.But part of it is my age – or more specifically, my stage of life, although the two go hand-in-hand.
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Sunday, September 15, 2019
Tech Giants Will Crash in the Next Stock Market Downturn / Companies / Tech Stocks
By: Robert_Ross
Some of your “safe” stocks aren’t as safe as you might think.
And now is a good time to sell them.
Let me explain…
As you likely know, US stocks have shot up and down many times over the last month. In August alone, there were five days when the S&P 500 rose or fell at least 1%.
That might not sound like a lot, but it’s a pretty big deal.
Sunday, September 15, 2019
Will Draghi’s Swan Song Revive the Eurozone? And Gold? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
It was a hot monetary policy meeting yesterday. Faced with slow inflation and bleak growth, the ECB eased again, delivering a fresh stimulus package. What does it mean for the gold market?
ECB Strikes Back in Response to Subdued Inflation
Amid the continued shortfall of inflation, the ECB cut its deposit rate by 10 basis points from -0.40 to -0.50. Yes, you read it correctly, from negative 0.40 to negative 0.50. The subzero madness has deepened in the Eurozone. What is more, the central bank announced that the ultralow interest rates would remain until inflation reaches the target:
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Sunday, September 15, 2019
The Race to Depreciate Fiat Currencies Is Accelerating / Currencies / Fiat Currency
By: MoneyMetals
Metals investors are anxiously awaiting the market’s reaction to next week’s Fed meeting. We may see players in the futures markets move to smash gold and silver prices down to lower support zones in the trading around the Fed’s decision.
But flushing out some more speculative longs and late comers with weak hands would be a healthy development in setting up the next rally.
Those who got left behind in this summer’s big moves in metals markets should certainly consider taking advantage of favorable buying opportunities as they present themselves ahead of a possible seasonal push higher in the sector this fall.
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Sunday, September 15, 2019
Can Crypto casino beat Hybrid casino / Personal_Finance / Gambling
By: Sumeet_Manhas
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Saturday, September 14, 2019
British Pound vs Brexit Chaos Timeline / Currencies / British Pound
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The consensus view is that the market seeks a resolution to Brexit uncertainty of when or even if the UK would leave the EU. Which given current extreme chaos would suggest that the British Pound should be an death spiral of sorts.
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Saturday, September 14, 2019
Recession 2020 Forecast : The New Risks & New Profits Of A Grand Experiment / Economics / Recession 2020
By: Dan_Amerman
There is a very good chance that there will be a recession within the next 1-2 years, and this could even occur within the next few months.
As explored in this analysis, if there is a recession, the means by which that recession will be contained and exited will necessarily be an unprecedented experiment. This means that there is an unusually high risk that it will not be a normal recession - which could knock the foundations out from underneath many conventional retirement investment strategies that blithely make the assumption that we can somehow know in advance that a "normal" mild and short recession is the downside scenario.
Once we accept the reality of the "grand experiment" - that means that we are likely to see investment prices changing in ways that are also quite unusual. Indeed, we are likely to see amplified profits to go along with the new risks. Crucially, what we also know right now (based upon the Federal Reserve's public plans) is that some of these profits will not be in the usual places or from the usual sources.
Many people believe that we have returned to normal times from an economic and investment perspective - and therefore, if there is a recession, it will be "normal" (by the standards of the last half of the 20th century), with "normal" investment results.
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Saturday, September 14, 2019
War Gaming the US-China Trade War / Politics / China US Conflict
By: John_Mauldin
By Justin Spittler: People respond to incentives. So do national governments. This is foundational to both economics and geopolitics.
Carefully examining each side’s incentives can illuminate how a conflict will end. No one has infinite choices. They choose from limited options.
That applies to the US-China trade war, which is right now one of our top economic issues. So let’s think through what the players really want, and what each can actually do.
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Saturday, September 14, 2019
Buying a Budgie, Parakeet for the First Time from a Pet Shop - Jollyes UK / Personal_Finance / Animals & Pets
By: Anika_Walayat
Anika and Eliza went off to our local pet store Jollyes with a plan to buy a budgie / parakeet. Though with the wide selection of pets on offer there was a tug of war underway, Hamsters, small mice, rabbits, fish and even rats on offer! Eliza wants a Rabbit whilst Anika wants a Mouse or Hamster. But the plan was to buy a Budgie! After all we have a budgie cage at home so can't suddenly switch to another animal. Find out what it's like to visit a pet shop like Jollyes pet food superstore to buy a pet Budgie and / or other animals for the first time. Not forgetting food and accessories.
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Friday, September 13, 2019
Crude Oil Price Setting Up For A Downside Price Rotation / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Crude Oil has been trading in a fairly narrow range since mid-August – between $52 and $57 ppb. Our Adaptive Dynamic Learning (ADL) predictive modeling system suggested the downside price move in late July/early August was expected and the current support aligns very well with our ADL predictions of higher price rotation throughout most of September/October. Please take a minute to review the original research post below :
Friday, September 13, 2019
A “Looming” Recession Is a Gold Golden Opportunity / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: MoneyMetals
It’s the most widely anticipated recession in history. The recession hasn’t arrived yet – and may not do so anytime soon – but the mainstream media still can’t stop talking about it.
Consider this strange article from NBC News. It purports to show that young adults are posting dark, ironic memes to social media in reaction to a “possible recession looming.” It’s a possible, undated, undefined downturn of unknown severity that millennials are supposedly now coping with in advance!
CNN, meanwhile, sees “signs of a potential looming recession” – more severe in scope, presumably, than the network’s actual viewer ratings recession.
Friday, September 13, 2019
Is 2019 Similar to 2007? What Does It Mean For Gold? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
The Fed cut the interest rates at the end of July. As the previous easing cycle started in September 2007, many analysts are saying that the current year looks more and more like 2007. We invite you to read our today’s article that compares the current year with 2007 and find out what are the implications for the gold market.
The Fed cut the interest rates at the end of July. As the previous easing cycle started in September 2007, many analysts are saying that the current year looks more and more like 2007. We invite you to read our today’s article that compares the current year with 2007 and find out what are the implications for the gold market.
The recent Fed’s interest rate cut has been the first such since December 2008, when the U.S. central bank slashed the federal funds rate to almost zero. However, the Fed started its previous easing cycle in September 2007, when it cut interest rates by 50 basis points amid the severe slump in housing prices. Is this why many analysts are saying that the current year looks more and more like 2007? Are they right? And what would it mean for the gold market?
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Friday, September 13, 2019
How Did the Philippines Establish Itself as a World Leader in Call Centre Outsourcing? / Companies / Phillippines
By: Submissions
It’s hard to ignore the presence of the Philippines on the global market for call centre outsourcing at this point, and the country has made a very noticeable mark on the industry. And it looks like we’re only seeing the tip of the iceberg too, as there are various indications that the Philippines is going to continue pushing forward in this field.Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, September 13, 2019
UK General Election Forecast 2019 - Betting Market Odds / ElectionOracle / UK General Election
By: Nadeem_Walayat
This is the current state of the parties after Boris Johnson ejected 21 MP's from the Tory party last week.
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Friday, September 13, 2019
Energy Sector Reaches Key Low Point – Start Looking For The Next Move / Commodities / Energy Resources
By: Chris_Vermeulen
|The Energy Sector ETF has been on fire recently with big price trends. We called a bottom/buy trigger in ERY in early July that resulted in a nearly +20% rally. Then, on August 29th, we called for ERY to rotate lower, targeting the $46 to $47 level – setting up another price momentum base before another attempt to move higher. You can read that research post here :
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