Silver vs US Dollar

By: Nadeem_Walayat

One would expect an inverse relationship between the US Dollar and Silver. The below chart shows periods when the dollar has been falling (USD Index) in RED and rising in blue, during which time there does tend to be a tendency for Silver price to exhibit an inverse relationship to varying degree.

Without this turning into trend forecast for the US Dollar, the most recent price action shows a double / higher bottom followed by a breakout higher that suggests the US Dollar looks set to continue higher to resistance at $99. Conversely the bottom in the dollar at 89 and trend higher to 95 has been accompanied with the silver price trending lower. Thus given the USD could add another 4cents confirms that Silver is heading lower in the immediate future towards a target to about $18, by which time the USD will have hit resistance and retreat lower once more, remembering that dollar fundamentals of the large budget and trade twin deficits are bearish for the US dollar and thus further downside pressure on Silver is likely to prove short lived.

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Nadeem Walayat has over 35 years experience of trading derivatives, portfolio management and analysing the financial markets, including one of few who both anticipated and Beat the 1987 Crash. Nadeem's forward looking analysis focuses on UK inflation, economy, interest rates and housing market. He is the author of five ebook's in the The Inflation Mega-Trend and Stocks Stealth Bull Market series that can be downloaded for Free.

Nadeem is the Editor of The Market Oracle, a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication that presents in-depth analysis from over 1000 experienced analysts on a range of views of the probable direction of the financial markets, thus enabling our readers to arrive at an informed opinion on future market direction. http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

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