Sunday, May 29, 2022
Managing Emotions – How FOMO Affects Your Trading And Your Life / InvestorEducation / Learn to Trade
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Managing emotions you say? Often we hear that we are supposed to trade without emotion as if we’re robots. That’s a big fat myth.
“If you can keep your head when all about you are losing theirs….”
From “If,” by Rudyard Kipling
We’re in a challenging market. Here are some thoughts on how to not just survive but thrive as we work through a significant peaking phase of the economic and market cycles.
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Sunday, May 29, 2022
Why the Timing of the Next Economic Slump May Surprise Big Time / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022
By: EWI
"The stock market leads GDP," not the other way around
Do you recall how many government officials, economists or bankers anticipated the severity of the "Great Recession" before late 2007 into 2009?
Do you recall even one?
If a name doesn't come to mind, that's because hardly anyone of prominence provided a warning. Indeed, just the opposite.
Here's a March 29, 2007 NBC News headline:
U.S. economic growth revised up
Granted, this view by a group of economists was early in 2007, but still -- a historic stock market top was then only six months away and the start of the Great Recession was only eight months down the road.
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Sunday, May 29, 2022
Useful Tips On How To Choose The Right Web Hosting Service / Companies / SME
By: Steve_Barker
No matter what type of website you have, the need for a reliable web hosting service is essential. Your site needs to be available at all times and should be fast and easy to access. A good web hosting service will provide you with these features, as well as others that can make your site run more smoothly. It's important to choose a web hosting service that can meet your needs, so here are some useful tips on how to choose the right one.
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Saturday, May 28, 2022
Why Ray Dalio is WRONG About Rise of China - Principles for Dealing with the Changing World Order / Politics / GeoPolitics
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Ray Dalio's new book and associated video Principles for Dealing with the Changing World Order paints picture for the inevitable rise of China to displace the United States following inevitable military conflict that will usher in a NEW Chinese World Order
However after watching Roy Dalio's video I see at least 3 major flaws in his rise of China to displace the US thesis.
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Saturday, May 28, 2022
Sell the Stocks Bear Market Bounce / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022
By: Michael_Pento
Bear market bounces are violent yet short-lived. The latest excuse for an oversold rally was provided by JP Morgan's Jamie Dimon. The bank's CEO stated at Morgan's Investor Day Conference on Monday, May 23rd, that the US economy remains strong despite gathering storm clouds. He said, "I'm calling it storm clouds because they're storm clouds. They may dissipate." This was indicative of the typical vapid speech of the optimistic bank CEO. While he was at it, he also raised the bank's outlook for Net Interest Margin at the bank's conference, causing the usual parade of Dimon groupies to celebrate with orgasmic delight about his confidence in the economy.Perhaps Dimon is compelled to do his impression of PT Barnum because shares of JPM have lost 30% of their value so far this year. But before you believe Dimon is some economic oracle, listen to what he predicted about US economic growth on Jan. 11th when he publicly proclaimed his 2022 outlook, "We're going to have the best growth year we've ever had this year, I think, since maybe sometime after the Great Depression." He said this during a quarter that would later show to have shrunk at a 1.4% annualized rate. And that bad economic data didn't cease at the end of Q1. S&P Global US Composite PMI Output, which tracks the manufacturing and services sectors, fell to a reading of 53.8 in May, from a 56.0 reading in April, which means the economy is fast approaching contraction territory in Q2. A slew of manufacturing PMIs also supports the view that the US and, indeed the entire global economy is faltering. The plunging numbers on home purchases and refinancing activity indicate danger is ahead. Nevertheless, despite a parade of sharply declining economic data, the financial media is promoting the view of Wall Street analysts that earnings growth is actually going to be robust this year and next.
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Saturday, May 28, 2022
Sorry, Warren Buffett, You’re wrong About Crypto Currencies / Currencies / cryptocurrency
By: Stephen_McBride
I’ll warn you now.
What I’m about to say about the greatest investor of all time is controversial…
First, let me clear the air. We all know Warren Buffett is a legend when it comes to stocks. He’s made an annualized return of 20% for his shareholders since 1965. No one can match his track record, discipline, or longevity.
As my colleague, Chris Reilly, pointed out on May 16, Buffett’s buying quality stocks hand-over-first right now with markets down.
That’s a smart move that’s likely to pay off big time.
Saturday, May 28, 2022
The Golden Rule for Picking Tiny Stocks / Companies / Investing 2022
By: Submissions
By Chris Wood : With thousands of tiny stocks out there… how can I filter out the junk from the ones with truly huge, 500%+ potential?
As RiskHedge’s microcap expert, it’s one of the most popular questions I get…
And today, I’m sharing the easiest way to put the odds of success in your favor.
In short: The quickest way to compile a shortlist of tiny stocks with the potential to hand you game-changing profits is to apply this golden rule:
Friday, May 27, 2022
Britain's Hyper Housing Market / Housing-Market / UK Housing
By: Nadeem_Walayat
In Britain we have long since known and factored into the equation the China effect on London's property market that has long since sent it soaring into the stratosphere following the stagnation of the Mid 1990's which was probably one of the best times in decades to buy a property in terms of bang for ones buck i.e. it was before immigration soared into the stratosphere courtesy of the open door policy of Tony Blair's Labour government as the socialists enticed millions of eastern european's to come to the UK and become new Labour voters that sent house prices soaring across Britain and eventually putting housing out of the reach of many millions of prospective home buyers who enjoyed a brief respite in the aftermath of the great financial crisis when demand slumped along with the economy.
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Friday, May 27, 2022
Lower Copper price due to Chinese lockdowns is only Temporary / Commodities / Copper
By: Richard_Mills
Copper is one of our most important metals with more than 20 million tonnes consumed each year across a variety of industries, including building construction (wiring & piping,) power generation/ transmission, and electronic product manufacturing. The red metal is also a key component in transportation; electric vehicles use about four times as much copper as regular internal combustion engine vehicles.
A combination of supply disruptions, historically low copper stockpiles and higher energy costs, propelled copper to a new all-time high of $4.94/lb on Friday, March 4.
Since then, the base metal has lost momentum mostly because of lower demand in China, the world’s biggest consumer of copper end products.
The latest data shows China’s copper imports fell 4% in April, year on year, as the return of covid-19 forced lockdowns of several Chinese cities including Shanghai, hurting manufacturing and consumption.
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Friday, May 27, 2022
How the United States Conquered Inflation Following the Civil War / Economics / Inflation
By: MoneyMetals
By Larry Reed : Americans today are once again the victims of price inflation brought on by runaway government spending and printing of unbacked paper money.
According to the most recent polling data, the American public’s approval of Congress stands at a dismal 21 percent. Almost four times as many people disapprove of the job it’s doing.
That’s par for the course in recent decades. It’s the major reason the Washington sausage grinder earns so little praise. To be fair, though, let’s review an occasion when lawmakers got something right. I’m prompted to share this story now because its lessons are especially relevant considering today’s concerns about rising price inflation. The year was 1875.
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Friday, May 27, 2022
Greater Depression Now!? / Economics / Great Depression II
By: Raymond_Matison
Most investors know that a recession is defined by a decline in national GDP for two quarters, that is, two three month periods. Investors also have experienced economic pundits writing or announcing that “we may experience a recession in the next several quarters, or expect one in the next one to two years”. It seems that we are actually never in a recession, but rather a recession may be experienced by the public in the not too distant future.
In one respect that viewpoint is understandable since it takes several months for the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) to confirm that the economy has previously experienced two quarters of negative growth, and thus they can never confirm that we are in a recession, but rather we can only know with a lag that we have previously experienced a recession. It could take up to a year for the NBER to confirm that we were in a recession, but by the time they are able to confirm this fact – we may already have exited that recession. Also, it requires significant lags of time to confirm that the economy continues to remain in a recession. Thus, such information may be valuable and interesting to economists, but because of reporting and confirmation lags, it has essentially no value to the consumer.
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Friday, May 27, 2022
Stocks: Is the Really Scary Part Just Ahead? / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022
By: EWI
Here's one of the actions which investors take when they get "rattled"
Big daily selloffs have occurred since the stock market's downtrend began in January.
For instance, on May 18, the Dow Industrials closed lower by 1,161 points -- a 3.6% drop. The S&P 500 shed 4% on the same day.
Yet, most investors aren't exactly shaking in their boots. Panic is absent.
After the market close on May 18, the U.S. Short Term Update, a thrice weekly Elliott Wave International publication which analyzes near-term trends for major U.S. financial markets, showed this chart and said:
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Friday, May 27, 2022
The Dark Side of the Internet - Cybersecurity / Companies / Cyber Security
By: Stephen_McBride
Superinvestor Warren Buffett called it “the number-one problem with mankind.”
JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon said, “it may be the biggest threat to the US financial system.”
And Bob Dudley, the former CEO of oil giant BP, told investors it’s what “keeps me awake at night.”
These guys have millions or billions of dollars… so you might assume they’re worried about direct threats to their wealth like inflation, runaway government spending, or the plunge markets have taken lately.
Believe it or not… they’re talking about the grave threat of cyberattacks.
Tuesday, May 24, 2022
Why Ray Dalio is WRONG About China - Principles for Dealing with the Changing World Order / Politics / China US Conflict
By: Nadeem_Walayat
A number of patrons mentioned Ray Dalio and his new book "Principles for Dealing with the Changing World Order" and asked for my opinion, In respect of which Ray Dalio posted a high production 40 minute youtube video of the same title.
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Tuesday, May 24, 2022
Globalists Convene to Plan Central Bank Digital Currencies / Currencies / cryptocurrency
By: MoneyMetals
Central bankers and bureaucrats are seizing on recent turmoil in cryptocurrency markets to push aggressively for central bank digital currencies (CBDCs).
They made their case to other global elites gathered in Davos on Monday for the World Economic Forum’s annual meeting.
Kristalina Georgieva, managing director of the International Monetary Fund, said, “Bitcoin may be called a coin, but it’s not money. It’s not a stable store of value.”
Tuesday, May 24, 2022
After Recent Highs, What’s Next for the Gold Junior Miners? / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2022
By: P_Radomski_CFA
Signs are pointing to gold’s May rally running out of steam as the USDX reaches its short-term bottom. But how much stamina is left in the yellow metal?
Another day, another higher close in the junior miners. And another day where profits on our long positions in the latter increased. There is a sign that the rally in the precious metals sector is close to being over.
That sign is the situation in the USD Index, and the shape of the gold-USD link.
Saturday, May 21, 2022
Why APPLE Could CRASH the Stock Market! / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Dear Reader
The earnings bloodbath materialised, that started on Tuesday with Google trading down to $2265, and ended on Friday with Amazon plunging down to a new low of $2425. With the two 'cheap' stocks Qualcom and Facebook rallying strongly post earnings. Virtually everything went according to the script of my last article i.e. "we could see Amazon trade to well under $2500, probably into the $2450 to $2300 support zone". The only odd one out was Apple that refused to budge much from $160, where my expectations remain is headed to below $142.
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Saturday, May 21, 2022
Why Is Crude Oil Ignoring US Inventories? / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Submissions
While the current pull-back on black gold is fundamentally triggered by different forces, where is the prevailing wind coming from that is pushing prices lower?
On Wednesday, the day after the US Fed’s Chair Powell showed a more hawkish tone, crude oil prices dropped 2.5% following profit-takings on most commodity markets - new fears emerged that a world economic slowdown combined with rising interest rates could negatively impact the global demand. By the way, talking about profit-takings, our subscribers took theirs on Monday within the last phases of the strong rally in crude oil that hit our last projected targets.
Saturday, May 21, 2022
Here is Why I’m Still Bullish on Gold Mining Stocks / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2022
By: P_Radomski_CFA
The medium-term outlook for the precious metals remains bearish, but does this mean we can’t profit on shorter-term moves? Quite the opposite!
Precious metals declined yesterday, and so did the general stock market. Is the rally already over?
When I wrote about this rally on May 12, which took place at the same time when I took profits from the short positions and entered the long ones, I mentioned that I planned to hold these long positions for a week or two. Since that was exactly a week ago, the question is: is the top already in?
In short, it probably isn’t. As always, it’s useful to check what happened in the past in similar situations to verify whether what we see is normal or some kind of an outlier that cannot be explained by something that has already happened.
Let’s start with a quote from yesterday’s analysis:
Of course, there will be some back-and-forth movement on an intraday basis, but it doesn’t change anything. Junior miners are likely to rally this week nonetheless. And perhaps not longer than that, as the next triangle-vertex-based reversal is just around the corner – on Friday/Monday.
Friday, May 20, 2022
THE INFLATION MEGA-TREND QE4EVER! / Economics / Inflation
By: Nadeem_Walayat
A reminder folks that regardless of Fed propaganda and what you read in the mainstream press QE is 4 EVER! Once it starts it will not stop. As I have been iterating for over a decade now as the following excerpt from 3 years ago illustrates (Stock Market Trend Forecast March to September 2019) that CRISIS ARE MONEY PRINTING EVENTS TO CAPITALISE UPON BY INVESTING IN ASSETS THAT ARE LEVERAGED TO INFLATION!
So why has the the stock market soared, what is that the stock market knows that most commentators and economists fail to comprehend? We'll for one thing there are the dovish signals out of the Fed which go beyond a pause in their interest rate hiking cycle in response to a subdued inflation outlook. Similarly the worlds other major central banks have their own reasons to avoid rate hikes, most notable of which is the Bank of England that has been busy propagandising the prospects of a NO Deal Brexit Armageddon in attempts to scare Westminister into avoiding EXITING the European Union in anything other than an ultra soft BrExit.
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