Tuesday, March 01, 2022
Told You, Stock Market Risk On / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022
By: Monica_Kingsley
S&P 500 erased opening downside, not unexpectedly. Markets say we‘ve turned the corner, and while the medium-term correction isn‘t over, we‘re going higher for now. The tired performance in credit markets suggests that the pace of the upswing would indeed likely slow, but the dips are being bought – even the 4,300 overnight level held unchallenged.
VIX is slowly calming down, and it wouldn‘t be a one-way ride. I hate to say it, but we‘re trading closer to the more complacent end of the volatility spectrum – that‘s though in line with my assumption of toned down price appreciation expectations that I discussed on Sunday and yesterday:
(…) While we made local lows on Thursday after all, the upside momentum is likely to slow down next – this week would bring a consolidation within a very headline sensitive environment. It‘s looking good for the bulls at the moment – till the dynamic of events beyond markets changes.
Inflation isn‘t wavering, and I‘m not looking for its meaningful deceleration given the events since Thursday, no. Friday is likely to mark a buying opportunity beyond oil and copper – these longs have very good prospects. Another part of the S&P 500 upswing explanation were the still fine fresh orders data – while the real economy has noticeably decelerated (and Q1 GDP growth would be underwhelming), solid figures would return in the latter quarters of 2022. That‘s also behind the gold downswing on Friday, which hadn‘t been confirmed by the miners – the very bright future ahead for precious metals is undisputable. And the same goes for crude oil as oil stocks foretell – the fresh long crude trade together with long S&P 500 one, are both solidly in the black already.
Tuesday, March 01, 2022
Is There a Way to Achieve Fast Instagram Growth Without Being Banned? / Personal_Finance / Social Media
By: Sumeet_Manhas
Marketing today is a very different prospect than it was just ten or twenty years ago. Print media is nowhere near as important as it once was, and a strong digital marketing campaign is essential for business today.
One popular way to promote products and brands today is through the use of social media.
Clearly, Facebook is the whale here, but Instagram isn’t so far behind now. Although the company likes to keep its figures secret, it was reported last year that the website had reached 2 billion active users.
Monday, February 28, 2022
Putin Starts WW3 in Ukraine, Will Use Tactical Nuclear Weapons, China Prepares Taiwan Blitzkrieg / Politics / WW3
By: Nadeem_Walayat
As I voiced near a month ago, Putin wants the WHOLE of Ukraine which given the full spectrum Ukraine wide Russian military operations strongly concurs with Putin's plan to consume the whole Ukraine lock stock and smoking blown up barrel. War in Europe sparks the trend towards WORLD WAR 3 as it emboldens the likes of Xi Ping to seize the opportunity to launch his own war of conquest for Taiwan that would act to embolden Putin even further to start massing forces on the borders of the Baltic states so that he can rebuild the Tsarist Russian Empire. Beyond which there are countless further escalations as dictatorships across the globe are unleashed to seek to capitalise on the growing chaos of war such as on the China / India border, or Pakistan / India Border, and countless other grievances such as the perma hot potato that is the Middle East where we have the regions bully boy Israel probably seizing the opportunity to further grab chunks of neighbouring states with Syria and Lebanon in it's cross hairs that just like Putin will call up on ancient gobbledygook to justify war in 2022,, then there is the conflict at the heart of Islam of Sunni's vs Shia's, Arabs vs Persians, and countless more such incidences across the African continent and Asia such as our Dear Fat Leader in North Korea, embolden by Putin's war in Europe WW3 to join in on the chaos, with maybe western nations deploying their own land grabs under the banner of peace keeping, where Australia comes to mind which in past actions has tended to be no better than Russia or even Nazi Germany and may decide to .complete it's own version of the final solution on the rightful owners of the continent Brit's planted their flag on some 200 years ago.
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Monday, February 28, 2022
Stocks: Why This "Trend Following" Indicator is Worth Watching / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022
By: EWI
This "is compatible with a stock market that has further to decline"
Large Speculators are a sector of traders monitored by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission and are comprised mainly of hedge fund managers and trend followers.
History shows that this group of traders is usually wrong at key market turns.
The Commercials, which you might call the "smart money," is another sector of traders monitored by the CFTC. They usually take positions opposite that of Large Speculators and are usually right.
This indicator is especially useful when the positions that Large Speculators and Commercials have established reach extremes at the same time a market's Elliott wave pattern suggests a trend turn is nigh.
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Monday, February 28, 2022
White House Now Blames Its Inflation on “Defending Freedom” / Economics / Inflation
By: MoneyMetals
Rising geopolitical and inflation risks brought heightened volatility to markets this week.
Russia’s military incursion into Ukraine is being described as the worst attack on a European nation’s sovereignty since World War II.
In response, the Biden administration announced a new round of economic sanctions against Vladimir Putin’s government. The sanctions seek to economically isolate Russia and restrict its ability to market its products in the global economy.
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Monday, February 28, 2022
IronFX Review 2022: How can I withdraw my profits? / Currencies / Forex Trading
By: Submissions
Here is the review of a forex brokerage firm IronFX. In this review, we will cover the most common queries from the people and try our best to provide you the genuine information about this broker.
Before choosing a broker, a client or a trader struggling to find the answer to multiple questions like Is the broker a scam or not? What is the trading fee or commission charged by the broker? Is the broker capable of providing trading opportunities in various asset classes like crypto and commodities?
You will get answers to all these questions in this article, and by the end, you can easily decide whether you choose the broker IronFX or not?
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Saturday, February 26, 2022
JRS.L Capitalising on Russia's War CRASHED Stocks / Companies / Russia
By: Nadeem_Walayat
My plan to capitalise on Putin's the war was centred around accumulating into JRS.L . first very lightly between £5.5 and £5, better this investment trust than individual Russian stocks that can fall victim to sanctions, so less volatility and better long-term prospects for an ultimate bounce back to well north of £8 as JRS.L is an investment trust I have traded in and out of for decades. Generally buying when under £5 and selling when over £8.50 as part of my legacy stocks portfolio. However since upside is limited, I won't be adding this to my public portfolio's. Nevertheless I was set to accumulate big well ahead of the invasion that I expected to trade to well below 5.0 and likely could fall further all the way down to as low as £2.50, and then hold for the long-run to sell at a target of around £8.75, just as I did a few months ago when I sold ALL of my holdings at £8.72 via a long standing limit order. I.e. apart from the current accumulation phase it's not a stock that I intend on monitoring closely.
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Saturday, February 26, 2022
Russia ATTACKS UK - Putin WIll FLATTEN Kyiv Like Grosny to WIN Ukraine WAR! / Politics / Ukraine War
By: N_Walayat
UK Comes Under Missile Attack! UK Rain mis targetting for UKraine? As I voiced near a month ago, Putin wants the WHOLE of Ukraine which given the full spectrum Ukraine wide Russian military operations strongly concurs with Putin's plan to consume the whole Ukraine lock stock and smoking blown up barrel. War in Europe sparks the trend towards WORLD WAR 3 as it emboldens the likes of Xi Ping to seize the opportunity to launch his own war of conquest for Taiwan that would act to embolden Putin even further to start massing forces on the borders of the Baltic states so that he can rebuild the Tsarist Russian Empire.
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Friday, February 25, 2022
World War 3 Phase 1 - Putin WINS Ukraine War! / Politics / Russia
By: Nadeem_Walayat
As I voiced near a month ago, Putin wants the WHOLE of Ukraine which given the full spectrum Ukraine wide Russian military operations strongly concurs with Putin's plan to consume the whole Ukraine lock stock and smoking blown up barrel. War in Europe sparks the trend towards WORLD WAR 3 as it emboldens the likes of Xi Ping to seize the opportunity to launch his own war of conquest for Taiwan that would act to embolden Putin even further to start massing forces on the borders of the Baltic states so that he can rebuild the Tsarist Russian Empire. Beyond which there are countless further escalations as dictatorships across the globe are unleashed to seek to capitalise on the growing chaos of war such as on the China / India border, or Pakistan / India Border, and countless other grievances such as the perma hot potato that is the Middle East where we have the regions bully boy Israel probably seizing the opportunity to further grab chunks of neighbouring states with Syria and Lebanon in it's cross hairs that just like Putin will call up on ancient gobbledygook to justify war in 2022,, then there is the conflict at the heart of Islam of Sunni's vs Shia's, Arabs vs Persians, and countless more such incidences across the African continent and Asia such as our Dear Fat Leader in North Korea, embolden by Putin's war in Europe WW3 to join in on the chaos, with maybe western nations deploying their own land grabs under the banner of peace keeping, where Australia comes to mind which in past actions has tended to be no better than Russia or even Nazi Germany and may decide to .complete it's own version of the final solution on the rightful owners of the continent Brit's planted their flag on some 200 years ago.
Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, February 25, 2022
Gold Stocks’ Spring Rally 2022 / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2022
By: Zeal_LLC
The gold miners’ stocks have mostly been consolidating sideways over this past half-year. They’ve been held down by periodic bouts of heavy gold-futures dumping on Fed-tightening fears. But as those traders exhaust their selling firepower, gold stocks have formed a strong technical base that is birthing their next major bull-market upleg. And a stiff tailwind is mounting as gold stocks enter their strongest season of the year.
Gold stocks exhibit strong seasonality because their price action mirrors that of their dominant primary driver, gold. Gold’s seasonality generally isn’t driven by supply fluctuations like grown commodities see, as its mined supply remains relatively-steady year-round. Instead gold’s major seasonality is demand-driven, with global investment demand varying considerably depending on the time in the calendar year.
This gold seasonality is fueled by well-known income-cycle and cultural drivers of outsized gold demand from around the world. Like clockwork these power major spring, autumn, and winter seasonal rallies in gold and thus its miners’ stocks. Interestingly market forces behind the former are the least-understood out of all gold’s seasonal surges. Maybe that’s why this imminent spring rally has also proven gold’s weakest.
Yet surprisingly gold stocks still enjoy their best seasonal outperformance relative to their metal during these same coming months! So gold stocks’ spring rally has proven their strongest seasonal one during gold’s modern bull-market years. This contradictory mismatch between gold’s worst seasonal rally and its miners’ best one offers an important clue on the spring rally’s motivating impetus, sentiment is the key.
Traders’ psychology exceedingly influences their capital-allocation decisions. They won’t buy gold or gold stocks or anything unless they are optimistic prices will climb on balance. After dark cold winters in the northern hemisphere where the vast majority of the world’s traders live, spring naturally breeds optimism. Its glorious expanding sunshine and warming temperatures universally buoy the spirits of nearly everyone.
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Friday, February 25, 2022
Consumer Retail May Suffer A -60% Collapse, Housing May Contract Faster Than Expected / Stock-Markets / Financial Crisis 2022
By: Chris_Vermeulen
I discussed the potential for the invasion into Ukraine with a friend over the past few days and how this new war may change the global economy. We ended up discussing the Invasion of Kuwait that took place in August 1990. At that time, as soon as the Invasion of Kuwait started, consumers almost immediately changed their spending and financial habits.
Suddenly, people stopped going out to dinner after work. They stopped going out for drinks. They also stopped playing computer games and spending money on most outside entertainment (movies and movie rentals – back in the Blockbuster days). In short, consumers became fascinated by the televised war and lost focus on almost everything else.
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Friday, February 25, 2022
Gold: What Should We Expect Given the Ongoing Ukraine Conflict? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2022
By: P_Radomski_CFA
As history shows, gold and silver rallies based on geopolitical tensions are often short-lived. Yesterday, a hint of a trend reversal appeared.
Don’t stop reading this mining stock analysis until you get to the part about junior mining stocks’ analogy. Something might interest you there.
While the unfortunate conflict confronting Russia and Ukraine has intensified in recent days, gold, silver, and mining stocks have benefited from the crisis. However, since history shows that geopolitical-tension-based rallies often reverse, Feb. 24 was likely a small indication of what should unfold over the next few months.
For example, gold’s sharp rally turned into a sharp intraday reversal on Feb. 24. While the S&P 500, the NASDAQ Composite, the S&P 500, and gold managed to end the session in the green, the GDX ETF declined by 1.93%.
Thursday, February 24, 2022
FACBOOK MISSION ACCOMPLISHED Whilst CNBC Clowns Buy the TOP and SELL the BOTTOM! / Companies / Social Media
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The best time to buy a stock is when no one will touch it would a barge pole and that is where Facebook currently sits, where all those who were FOMO-ing before the earnings announcement such as this clown on CNBC Kevin O'Leary who said he was buying META big before earnings that's at about $325 per share!
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Thursday, February 24, 2022
Stock Market More Selling Begins / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022
By: Monica_Kingsley
S&P 500 reprieve that wasn‘t – the buyers didn‘t arrive, and the overnight military action sparking serious asset moves, shows that buying the dip would have been a bad idea. And it still is. Risk-on assets are likely to suffer, and I‘m not looking for a sharp, V-shaped rebound. The partial retracement seen in cryptos wouldn‘t translate to much upside in paper assets – it will likely be sold into as the bottom would take time to form. The safe haven premium seen in precious metals, crude oil and other real assets would ebb and flow, but a higher base has been established. The world has changed overnight, and recognition thereof is still pending.
I think it‘s clear why I had been derisking as much as possible, wary of volatility both ways in paper assets, and betting instead on a mix of real assets. This has been hugely paying off to subscribers and readers likewise favoring gold and crude oil with some copper added for good measure.
Thursday, February 24, 2022
Energy Shock: Ukraine Crisis to Push Inflation Higher / Economics / Inflation
By: MoneyMetals
As Russia initiates military action in Ukraine, pain at the pump is about to get even worse.
Fuel costs have already been soaring due to oil and gas supply constraints coupled with broader inflationary pressures. The national average for a gallon of regular unleaded is $3.55 – up 75 cents from a year ago. Some parts of the country are paying closer to $5.00 per gallon.
Now the threat of full-scale war in Ukraine is sending risk premiums in futures markets even higher. Crude oil futures jumped to over $100 per barrel ahead of the U.S. market open on Thursday morning.
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Thursday, February 24, 2022
UK Inflation at 30-year high / Economics / Inflation
By: Boris_Dzhingarov
The rate of inflation in the UK is at its highest point for 30 years, according to recent government figures. The Office for National Statistics (ONS) said that the consumer price index (CPI) used to measure inflation had risen to 5.5% for January 2022. Not since March 1992 (7.1%) have levels been this high and economists predict it could even eclipse that benchmark by April.
All of which is concerning news for the average consumer, but what exactly is inflation, how is it measured and what is causing it? Can the living wage keep up? And what are the potential consequences of such an increase? Read on to find out more.
Thursday, February 24, 2022
How to invest your money long-term / Personal_Finance / Learning to Invest
By: Sumeet_Manhas
Are you planning to invest long-term? Before jumping right in, it is always recommended to have a good knowledge on the matter, because otherwise you would be risking your money. Making the right choices is the key for a good investment and for having safer returns. It is never late to start a long-term investment, either for after your retirement or for eventual future needs. There are different options available to be considered. This way you will understand what is right for you and what is your investor’s profile. A piece of advice: always have some funds in an emergency fund for any urgency you may have to face in the future. Aside that, it is advisable to find accounts that let you to have access to your money at all time. While making your research and reading through some materials, most likely you are going to find these two options, so let’s see the difference between SIPP and ISA.
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Tuesday, February 22, 2022
Stock Trade-of-the-Week: Golden Ocean Group Ltd. (GOGL) / Companies / Investing 2022
By: Donald_W_Dony
Company profile: Golden Ocean Group Limited, a shipping company, owns and operates a fleet of dry bulk vessels comprising Newcastlemax, Capesize, Panamax, and Ultramax vessels worldwide. It owns and operates dry bulk vessels in the spot and time charter markets. The company transports bulk commodities, such as ores, coal, grains, and fertilizers. As of March 18, 2021, it owned a fleet of 67 dry bulk vessels. Golden Ocean Group Limited is based in Hamilton, Bermuda.
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Tuesday, February 22, 2022
Global Economic Recovery challenges amid new data on lingering pandemics / Economics / Global Economy
By: Dan_Steinbock
There is a common denominator between the Chinese holiday season and the COVID fight. That’s the effort to recover the pre-pandemic demand even amid new global waves of variants. There are lessons, too.Around the world retailers aspire to reinforce sales during major holidays, which have a “multiplier effect” on revenue generation. Such efforts have greater impact when authorities implement additional policy measures to foster consumption.
With the new COVID-19 flare-ups in several cities, including Omicron infections in several Chinese cities, the country’s top economic planner, the NDRC (National Development and Reform Commission) took measures to increase holiday spending and boost the economy during the Spring Festival and the Lantern Festival, along with the Valentine’s Day.
What was the outcome?
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Tuesday, February 22, 2022
What Should You Consider When Taking a Payday Loan? / Personal_Finance / Debt & Loans
By: Submissions
Online loans are booming in the United States. Financial companies can easily issue loans without requiring documents on the financial condition of the borrower. They compensate for this generosity with high rates on loans and harsh penalties for late repayment.
The ease of obtaining online credit makes this financial service accessible to all segments of the population. Services are provided without documents confirming the financial condition of the borrower. Often the borrower cannot realize the consequences that await him after signing a loan agreement.
The so-called payday loans are in great demand among borrowers. These are loans for up to one month and no more than one minimum wage. Online loans, as small as 200 dollar loans before paycheck are attracted by the ease of obtaining them. But it should be borne in mind that the cost of one day of use will be more than the market average. Also, such agreements usually suggest colossal fines and penalties for late online paycheck loans.