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UK House Building and Population Growth Analysis

Housing-Market / UK Housing Jun 02, 2022 - 03:04 PM GMT

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Housing-Market

The below graph shows the UK annual population change against annual net additional dwellings which includes completed new builds.


The graph illustrates a major long-term shift took place in UK housing market dynamics by 2000 as the annual increase in the UK population started to surge higher well beyond the normal dynamics of the system that had typically seen average population growth of about 100k per annum, capped at 200k per annum. Instead population growth soared far beyond the number of new house builds that ended the preceding trend for home construction to exceed population growth demands as the rate if house building fell from 364k per annum in 1970 to just 132k by 2000. Whilst at the same time the average size of the UK household had continued to shrink by falling from 3.1 in 1960 to just 2.2 in 2020 (one of the lowest in the world) as a consequence of the increase in single person households and single parent families. This ratio is only trending in one direction i.e. lower which means that even if the UK population suddenly stopped increasing then the falling ratio towards 2.15 by 2030 would imply demand for at least an EXTRA 1 million properties!

So by 2000 Britain was primed for the catastrophic consequences of a. under construction of new homes and b. a population explosion as a consequence of Tony Blair's Labour government opening the flood gates to allow millions of eastern European economic migrants (new Labour voters) to enter without regard to the impact on the infrastructure which resulted in net migration soaring from 50k per annum of the 1990's to a peak of 336k just prior to the 2016 EU referendum totaling some 5 million extra people to house.

And thus the twin forces of out of control immigration and under construction of new homes resulted in a worsening housing crisis that prompted the people of Britain to vote to LEAVE the European Union as Britain had gone from building over 200,000 homes per annum with net migration of less than 50k, a population increase of 100k per annum to building as few as 130,000 homes, with net migration of 250k+ with population growth of over 500,000 per annum and this IS why Britain voted to LEAVE the EU, a housing crisis some 16 years in the making for which blame squarely lies with Tony Blair's government.

Even the great pandemic failed to put much of a dent into migration flows, which still saw net migration of over 100,000, that post pandemic is likely to see a huge surge higher for evidence of which we only need look at Ukraine. Whilst net new dwellings have peaked and appear to be trending lower likely in response to government cutting incentives to build homes in attempts to cut back on spending post pandemic.

This article in an excerpt from my most recent extensive analysis focused on UK House Prices Three Trend Forecast 2022 to 2025, where I pealed away multiple layers of the UK housing market of to arrive at a high probability trend forecast.

UK House Prices Trend Forecast 2022 to 2025

THE INFLATION MEGA-TREND
WE HAVE NO CHOICE BUT TO INVEST IN STOCKS AND HOUSING
High Inflation Forecast for Whole of this Decade Due to Rampant Money Printing
Fed Inflation Strategy Revealed
Russian Sanctions Stagflation Driver
RECESSION RISKS 2023
UK Debt Inflation Smoking Gun
Britains' Hyper Housing Market
UK Population Growth Forecast 2010 to 2030
UK House Building and Population Growth Analysis
UK Over Crowding Ratio
Overcrowding Implications for UK House Prices
UK Housing Market Affordability
UK House Prices Real Terms Sustainable Trend
UK House Prices Relative to GDP Growth
UK House Prices Momentum Forecast
UK House Prices and the Inflation Mega-trend
Lets Get Jiggy With UK INTEREST RATES
Is the US Yield Curve Inversion Broken?
UK house Prices and Yield Curve Inversions
Interest Rates How High WIll they Go?
Work From Home Inflationary BOOM?
Formulating a UK House Prices Forecast 
UK House Prices 2022 to 2025 Trend Forecast Conclusion
Peering into the Mists of TIme
Risks to the Forecasts
US House Prices Trend Forecast 2022-2024

That was first made available to patrons who support my work.So for immediate first access to ALL of my analysis and trend forecasts then do consider becoming a Patron by supporting my work for just $4 per month. https://www.patreon.com/Nadeem_Walayat.

Whilst my recent analysis include -

My Main Analysis Schedule

  • UK House Prices Trend Forecast - Complete
  • US House Prices Trend Forecast - 70%
  • Global Housing / Investing Markets - 60%
  • US Dollar / British Pound Trend Forecasts - 0%
  • Stock Market Trend forecast into End 2022 - 0%
  • High Risk Stocks Update - Health / Biotech Focus - 0%
  • How to Get Rich - 85%
  • Gold and Silver Analysis - 0%

Again for immediate access to all my work do consider becoming a Patron by supporting my work for just $4 per month. https://www.patreon.com/Nadeem_Walayat.

And ensure you are subscribed to my ALWAYS FREE newsletter for my next in-depth analysis.

Your analyst BUYING the panic selling falling knives.

By Nadeem Walayat

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Copyright © 2005-2022 Marketoracle.co.uk (Market Oracle Ltd). All rights reserved.

Nadeem Walayat has over 30 years experience of trading derivatives, portfolio management and analysing the financial markets, including one of few who both anticipated and Beat the 1987 Crash. Nadeem's forward looking analysis focuses on UK inflation, economy, interest rates and housing market. He is the author of five ebook's in the The Inflation Mega-Trend and Stocks Stealth Bull Market series that can be downloaded for Free.

Housing Markets Forecast 2014-2018The Stocks Stealth Bull Market 2013 and Beyond EbookThe Stocks Stealth Bull Market Update 2011 EbookThe Interest Rate Mega-Trend EbookThe Inflation Mega-trend Ebook

Nadeem is the Editor of The Market Oracle, a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication that presents in-depth analysis from over 1000 experienced analysts on a range of views of the probable direction of the financial markets, thus enabling our readers to arrive at an informed opinion on future market direction. http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any trading losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors before engaging in any trading activities.

Nadeem Walayat Archive

© 2005-2022 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


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