Friday, July 08, 2022
The Fed Is Afraid of Inflation and Tightens Its Hawkish Stance / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
The Fed gives no illusions: it will maintain its hawkish stance. Meanwhile, gold plunged decisively below $1,800, which has bearish implications.Yesterday (July 6, 2022), the FOMC published the minutes from its last meeting, held in mid-June. Although the publication reveals no major surprises about US monetary policy, it shows rising worries within the Fed and also strengthens its hawkish rhetoric.
Why? First, the Committee’s members acknowledged that “the near-term inflation outlook had deteriorated since the time of the May meeting.” They also agreed that risks to inflation were skewed to the upside and that persistently high inflation could de-anchor inflation expectations:
Many participants judged that a significant risk now facing the Committee was that elevated inflation could become entrenched if the public began to question the resolve of the Committee to adjust the stance of policy as warranted. On this matter, participants stressed that appropriate firming of monetary policy, together with clear and effective communication, would be essential in restoring price stability.
Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, July 08, 2022
Commodities: Bounce or Something More? / Commodities / Commodities Trading
By: Gary_Tanashian
Commodities have been corrected hard, generally to support
It is amazing how compressed the cycles are in the markets these days. But maybe it’s not so surprising when you consider the constant involvement of meddling, manipulating central banks and even governments. Add a dash of hysterical media and the human instinct for knee-jerk herding and voila, there you have it; sentiment in commodities (and the inflation trades in general) going from absolutely rock solid (over) bullish to bleak in the span of a month.
All of this in the wake of an entity that held out dovish as long as it could before being directed by the market to put on its hawk costume and go steroidal in its inflation fighting stance. Seriously, market participants are taking their cues from a monetary authority that itself is taking cues from the bond market’s signaling (tardy though they were on the uptake). The link above shows the 3 month T-bill yield’s directive that the Fed aggressively raise rates back back in February. There were other signals as well demanding the same.
Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, July 08, 2022
Crude Oil Is Caught Between Recession Fears and Supply Cuts / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Submissions
Oil prices fluctuated on fears of a recession and a contraction in demand. What are the main figures to observe in this critical month?
Crude oil prices hovered between red and green on Thursday after two days of steep losses this week, still plagued by fears of a global economic recession that could threaten demand but also supply cuts in a tight market.
New Lockdown and Restrictions for the Chinese Panda
On the Asian continent, several million people may again suffer from strict restrictions because of China’s “zero-Covid policy” because of this epidemic rebound, which raises fears of the return of restrictions in Shanghai a month after the lifting of a long and grueling lockdown.
Thursday, July 07, 2022
Tory Back Stabbers Force Boris Johnson to Resign, Committing Electoral Suicide, Next PM is.... / Politics / UK Politics
By: Nadeem_Walayat
They Tory lemmings finally did it, the back stabbing bastards have got rid of Borish Johnson who won them an 80 seat majority at the 2019 election, who lead the nation through an 18 month pandemic party.
The stupid, self interested back stabbing bastards have gone and committed electoral sucide.
You can tell how bad it is from the reaction of Britain's enemies, youve got european politicians literally danncing in the street!
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, July 07, 2022
Crude Oil Collapsed Below $100PPB – Has The US FED Broken Inflation? / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Chris_Vermeulen
On Tuesday, July 5th, Crude Oil collapsed very sharply, down over 10% near the lows, in an aggressive breakdown of the price. The $97.43 lows reached that day were more than -14% from recent highs (set on June 29, 2022) and more than -21% from highs set on June 14, 2022.
Consumer Discretionary Spending Likely To Fall Further
In a recent research article (published June 9, 2022: CRUDE OIL PRICE AND CONSUMER SPENDING – HOW THEY ARE RELATED), we shared a similar breakdown that took place in Crude Oil in 2009 and how tightening consumer spending often correlates with peaks in Crude Oil when crisis events happen.
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, July 07, 2022
Will Crypto Loyalty Programs Replace Traditional Loyalty Points? / Currencies / cryptocurrency
By: Submissions
Loyalty programs are an essential part of the successful marketing strategy of any business. They are a main source-hook for retention and penetrative engagement. Lately, the crypto industry has widely been adopting these programs.
As with the growing popularity of digital assets, the common question here is:
Tuesday, July 05, 2022
The Inflation Mega-trend and UK House Prices - Housing Market Analysis Trend Forecast 2022 to 2025 / Housing-Market / Inflation
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Inflation has soared to a 30+ year high even on the highly manipulated CPLIE measure resulting in the biggest fall in living standards since records began for the UK and probably similar for US and most western households who are in for a deep real terms drop in disposable income during 2022, with the UK set for an eye watering record plunge of over £2200 per household. Which if you remained focused on the mainstream press then you would not have seen any of it coming having been hoodwinked for the whole of 2021 by the central bank mantra of 'transient inflation' which as I repeatedly warned would turn out to be PERMANENT. However the con merchants are now playing the blame everything on Russia game, as if inflation and all of the West woes were none existant until Putin delusionally marched his amateur army into Ukraine having believed his own lies echoed by his YES Men ensuring him that victory would come within days of invasion.
Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, July 05, 2022
Gold Price Summer Seasonal Doldrums / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2022
By: Zeal_LLC
Gold, silver, and their miners’ stocks suffer their weakest seasonals of the year in early summers. With traders’ attention normally diverted to vacations and summer fun, interest in and demand for precious metals usually wane. Without outsized investment demand, gold tends to drift sideways dragging silver and miners’ stocks with it. Long feared as the summer doldrums, they’ve actually moderated in recent years.
This doldrums term is very apt for gold’s traditional summer predicament. It describes a zone surrounding the equator in the world’s oceans. There hot air is constantly rising, spawning long-lived low-pressure areas. They are often calm, with little prevailing winds. History is full of accounts of sailing ships getting trapped in this zone for days or weeks, unable to make headway. The doldrums were murder on ships’ morale.
Crews had no idea when the winds would pick up again, while they continued burning through their limited stores of food and drink. Without moving air, the stifling heat and humidity were suffocating on these ships long before air conditioning. Misery and boredom were extreme, leading to fights breaking out and occasional mutinies. Being trapped in the doldrums was viewed with dread, it was a very trying experience.
Gold investors can somewhat relate. Like clockwork trudging through early summers, gold starts drifting listlessly sideways. It often can’t make significant progress no matter what trends looked like heading into June, July, and August. As the days and weeks slowly pass, sentiment deteriorates markedly. Patience is gradually exhausted, supplanted with deep frustration. Plenty of traders capitulate, abandoning ship.
Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, July 05, 2022
Tame Budgies Having Fun on a Grape Vine - UK Parakeet Easy Training / Personal_Finance / Animals & Pets
By: Eliza_Walayat
It's summer 2022 and our indoor grape vine has come alive with lots of foliage and grapes growing for our Tame budgies / parakeets to have lots of fun on. And you get to see how to easily grow your own indoor grape vine in the UK.
Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, July 03, 2022
Is the US Yield Curve Inversion Broken? / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The US has experienced 6 recessions over the past 40 years each of which were accompanied by an inversion of the 2 year and 10 year treasury bond yields an average of 18 months BEFORE the recession so whilst US yield curve inversions have proven to be a useful indicator in the past, though this time around inflation has been warning of a recession for a good 6 months before the US yield curve recently tentatively inverted sending MSM into a spin. Still the below chart does demonstrate that a yield curve inversion was imminent given that the interest rates have hit the down sloping trendline at which point yield curves tend to invert usually in advance of a recession which tends to typically follow 12 to 18 months after inversion, in terms of stocks and housing this implies downwards price pressure AHEAD of the recession rather than WITH the recession. But again all of the inversions of the past 20 years were during periods of LOW inflation.
Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, July 03, 2022
New Signs Economic Turmoil Will Prompt Fed to Lose Its Nerve / Economics / Recession 2022
By: MoneyMetals
As trading kicks off for the month of July and the second half of the year, investors are hoping for a third quarter rebound.
It’s been a brutal year so far in financial markets. The S&P 500 is down over 20%. Bitcoin has crashed by 60%. Bonds have provided no safe haven amid hot inflation. And spiking mortgage rates point to a potential calamity in the housing market.
As for gold, the monetary metal is essentially flat for the year. It may not be cause for celebration, but gold holders have at least obtained some shelter from broader market volatility.
Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, July 03, 2022
Stagflation With Powell Could Make Gold Price Happy / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2022
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
The upcoming stagflation might be less severe than in the 1970s. So is the Fed’s reaction, which could mean good news for gold.
There are many terrifying statements you can hear from another person. One example is: “Honey, we need to talk!” Another is: “I’m from the government and I’m here to help.” However, the scariest English word, especially nowadays, is “stagflation.” Brrr! I’ve explained it many times, but let me remind you that stagflation is a combination of economic stagnation and high inflation. This is why it’s a nightmare for central bankers as they should ease monetary policy to stimulate the economy and simultaneously tighten it to curb inflation. Although we haven’t fallen into recession yet, the pace of GDP growth has slowed down recently. According to the World Bank’s report Global Economic Prospects from June 2022, “the global economy is in the midst of a sharp growth slowdown” and “growth over the next decade is expected to be considerably weaker than over the past two decades.” The U.S. growth is expected to slow to 2.5 percent in 2022, 1.2 percentage points lower than previously projected and 3.2 percentage points below growth in 2021.
Thursday, June 30, 2022
UK Housing Market Analysis, Trend Forecast 2022 to 2025 - Part 2 / Housing-Market / UK Housing
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Dear Reader
This article is part 2 of 3 of my extensive analysis of the UK housing market that concludes in a detailed 3 year trend forecast for UK house prices (Part 1).
UK House Prices Trend Forecast 2022 to 2025
THE INFLATION MEGA-TREND
WE HAVE NO CHOICE BUT TO INVEST IN STOCKS AND HOUSING
High Inflation Forecast for Whole of this Decade Due to Rampant Money Printing
Fed Inflation Strategy Revealed
Russian Sanctions Stagflation Driver
RECESSION RISKS 2023
UK Debt Inflation Smoking Gun
Britains' Hyper Housing Market
UK Population Growth Forecast 2010 to 2030
UK House Building and Population Growth Analysis
UK Over Crowding Ratio
Overcrowding Implications for UK House Prices
UK Housing Market Affordability
UK House Prices Real Terms Sustainable Trend
UK House Prices Relative to GDP Growth
UK House Prices Momentum Forecast
UK House Prices and the Inflation Mega-trend
Lets Get Jiggy With UK INTEREST RATES
Is the US Yield Curve Inversion Broken?
UK house Prices and Yield Curve Inversions
Interest Rates How High WIll they Go?
Work From Home Inflationary BOOM?
Formulating a UK House Prices Forecast
UK House Prices 2022 to 2025 Trend Forecast Conclusion
Peering into the Mists of TIme
Risks to the Forecasts
US House Prices Trend Forecast 2022-2024
That was first made available to patrons who support my work.So for immediate first access to ALL of my analysis and trend forecasts then do consider becoming a Patron by supporting my work for just $4 per month. https://www.patreon.com/Nadeem_Walayat.
Including access to my recent analysis -
- The REAL Stocks Bear Market of 2022
- The Psychology of Investing in a Stocks Bear Market
- Dow 2022 Stock Market Trend Pattern
- AI Tech Stocks Name of the Game, Climate Change Housing Market Impact and the Next Empires
Thursday, June 30, 2022
Stock Market Turning the Screws / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022
By: Monica_Kingsley
S&P 500 duly paused yesterday but the (beyond very short-term) outlook remains as bearish as before. Bonds agree, but in the interests of real assets, I would have preferred to see stronger performance by miners and oil stocks. This suggests the next downleg in the stock market would affect precious metals and commodities as well. Some relative resilience (especially in gold) is there but won‘t be enough to change the neutral to bearish outlook in the least. As always in this tightening period (Treasuries keep the pressure and USD is rising), copper (with silver) are to suffer the most. Cryptos – that‘s the same story. It‘s only in oil where I expect the bulls to put up a good fight – the spike didn‘t happen yet, and once oil stocks decouple again from the general stock market, it would be easier. For today, I look for a strong day in the red across the board – good for open profits in stocks and cryptos.
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, June 30, 2022
How to Ignore Stocks (and why you should) / Stock-Markets / Investing 2022
By: Stephen_McBride
I know it’s hard to take your eyes off the market…
It’s like watching a slow-motion car crash.
Everyone, not just finance folks, is chatting about the declining stock market. My wife called me, joking she was returning some items to save money.
If you’re like most investors, you’ve probably been fixated on stock prices lately.
Today, I’ll show you why that’s a mistake.
Instead, you should focus on the single biggest driver of stock market returns, which I’ll share in a moment.
Thursday, June 30, 2022
Top Tips For Getting The Correct Insurance Option For Your Needs / Personal_Finance / Travel & Holidays
By: Steve_Barker
There are many different types of insurance policies available in the world today. It can be overwhelming trying to figure out which one is right for you and your family. In this blog post, we will discuss the six most common types of insurance and their benefits. We will give you a brief overview of each type of policy, as well as some tips on how to choose the right one for your needs.
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, June 30, 2022
Central Banks Plan To Buy More Gold In 2022 / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2022
By: Travis_Bard
While gold and silver prices have fluctuated somewhat of late, both assets were performing a little more solidly throughout US trading last week.
In fact, August gold futures were up by around $6.90 at $1,828.10 by Wednesday last week, while July Complex silver futures increased by $0.054 to $20.86 per ounce during the same timeframe.
Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, June 29, 2022
AI Tech Stock PORTFOLIO NAME OF THE GAME / Companies / AI
By: Nadeem_Walayat
What's the name of the game?
Answer - To gain exposure to the Quantum AI tech stocks that are on an exponential trend trajectory. That is the name of the game, where today's 50% deviations form the highs in the likes of Nvidia and AMD will become invisible blips on the long-term charts in a few short years time. Though how many investors will be able to hold on for the big pay off? I suspect not many given that today's platforms induce a trader mindset in investors which is how the platforms have been designed to drum up lots of small commissions be it IKBR's 35 cents per trade or Free Trades 0.45% F/X fee. So I know what's going to happen after stocks have bottomed and start to rocket higher say by 30% to 50% many will start asking is it now time to sell? As they think they will be able to trade in and out of corrections.
Last year I made the mistake of selling too much! Selling 80% of my holdings was too much, yes a bear market was highly probable but one does not know for sure until it actually materialises and to what degree. Back when Nvidia was flying high as a kite above $300, writing that I expected it to fall to below $200 and possibly as low as $140 does not mean it was definitely going to happen until it actually happens!
Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, June 29, 2022
Rebounding Crude Oil Gets Far Away from the Bearish Side / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Submissions
Demand for crude oil is accelerating – a bullish sign for its prices. What may the current energy market environment say about the black gold’s outlook?
A Chinese Panda’s Appetite
On the Asian continent, the lifting of health restrictions in China could signal resuming oil demand for the world’s top consumer. Given the context of tight supply, this has partially triggered a rebound in crude while driving prices higher.
Geopolitical Scene
The Libyan National Oil Company (NOC) warned that they could declare a state of "force majeure" on the facilities in the Gulf of Sirte – blocked due to the political crisis that has been hitting the country for months.
In Ecuador as well, the spectre of a halt in oil production is becoming clearer following the blockades and demonstrations initiated by a movement protesting the rise in the cost of living.
Tuesday, June 28, 2022
UK House Prices - Lets Get Jiggy With UK INTEREST RATES / Housing-Market / UK Housing
By: Nadeem_Walayat
UK House Prices - Lets Get Jiggy With UK INTEREST RATES
There have been so many interest rate hike false dawns over the past decade that one has become skeptical that this time could be different, and YES THIS TIME COULD REALLY BE DIFFERENT DUE TO OUT OF CONTORL INFLATION that worries the CENTRAL BANKS for they understand that it risks igniting the wage price spiral which once it takes hold is not easily brought back under control, hence there is a very high probability of high inflation for a decade because the central banks will not do what needs to be done! FORGET THE NOISE ABOUT Interest rates soaring to ridiculous levels for Central banks know their banking crime syndicate brethren would go BUST! Instead rates will rise but NOT to the level needed i.e. to ABOVE the rate of INFLATION. The UK base Interest rate to control inflation would need to be ABOVE the rate of Inflation i.e. at about 10%! which is clearly not going to happen! Not even to HALF that level, and probably not even to 1/4 of that level, 2% is what the Bank of England is targeting! Whilst INFLATION rages to 10%! That is not going to cool inflation OR the HOUSING MARKET!
The Bank of England is targeting a joke interest rate of just 2%. For UK Interest rates to have any significant impact on the UK housing market the base rate would need to be above 5%, and even then the impact would be relatively mind. People are NOT STUPID! They understand Inflation of 10% vs a Mortgage rate of say 4% is a NO BRAINER i.e. BORROW to the HILT and let inflation do it's MAGIC!
Read full article... Read full article...