Most Popular
1. It’s a New Macro, the Gold Market Knows It, But Dead Men Walking Do Not (yet)- Gary_Tanashian
2.Stock Market Presidential Election Cycle Seasonal Trend Analysis - Nadeem_Walayat
3. Bitcoin S&P Pattern - Nadeem_Walayat
4.Nvidia Blow Off Top - Flying High like the Phoenix too Close to the Sun - Nadeem_Walayat
4.U.S. financial market’s “Weimar phase” impact to your fiat and digital assets - Raymond_Matison
5. How to Profit from the Global Warming ClImate Change Mega Death Trend - Part1 - Nadeem_Walayat
7.Bitcoin Gravy Train Trend Forecast 2024 - - Nadeem_Walayat
8.The Bond Trade and Interest Rates - Nadeem_Walayat
9.It’s Easy to Scream Stocks Bubble! - Stephen_McBride
10.Fed’s Next Intertest Rate Move might not align with popular consensus - Richard_Mills
Last 7 days
US Bond Market Panic Continues Towards May Expected Japanese Rate Hike Volatility Spike - 24th April 25
Stock Market Tarrified as President Dump Risks Turning Recession into Stagflationary Depression - 21st April 25
President Dump Delivers BEAR MARKET - Stock Market Battles Between Order and Chaos - 7th April 25
Stocks Bull Market End Game Bear Start Strategy - 20th Mar 25
Gold and System Collapse: Charting the Bank Run of the Mighty US Dollar - 20th Mar 25
Tesla's Troubles — Is it Musk or is it More? - 20th Mar 25
The Stock Market Bear / Crash indicator Window - 9th Mar 25
Big US Tech Stocks Fundamentals - 9th Mar 25
No Winners When The Inflation Balloon Pops - 9th Mar 25

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Commodities

Wednesday, August 03, 2022

Don’t Be Misled by Gold’s Recent Upswing / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2022

By: P_Radomski_CFA

Despite gold’s latest move higher, its outlook remains bearish. If its 2012-2013 pattern is to repeat, it means gold is now preparing for a big fall.

Patience Advised

Gold moved higher on Friday, so you might be wondering if this changed anything regarding the outlook. In short, it didn’t.

Let’s take a closer look at what happened.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Commodities

Sunday, July 31, 2022

Aluminum, Copper, Zinc: The 3 Horsemen of the Upcoming "Econocalypse" / Commodities / Metals & Mining

By: EWI

This suggests "a burgeoning slowdown in economic activity"

It may seem strange to bring up deflation when surveys show that inflation is the public's number one worry.

But who would have thought that inflation would become a big issue, say, just two years ago?

Right -- a relatively small percentage of people. The point is: Things can unexpectedly change -- fast.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Commodities

Sunday, July 31, 2022

Gold Stocks’ Rally Autumn 2022 / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2022

By: Zeal_LLC

The gold miners’ stocks have been thrashed in recent months, crushed as heavy futures selling slammed gold.  That obliterated any residual sector bullishness, leaving gold stocks wildly-oversold and deeply-out-of-favor.  But having weathered a rough early summer, the battered miners and their metal are trudging back into their traditional strong season.  That begins with robust autumn rallies really accelerating in August.

Seasonality is the tendency for prices to exhibit recurring patterns at certain times during the calendar year.  While seasonality doesn’t drive price action, it quantifies annually-repeating behavior driven by sentiment, technicals, and fundamentals.  We humans are creatures of habit and herd, which naturally colors our trading decisions.  The calendar year’s passage affects the timing and intensity of buying and selling.

Gold stocks display strong seasonality because their price action amplifies that of their dominant primary driver, gold.  Gold’s seasonality generally isn’t driven by supply fluctuations like grown commodities see, as its mined supply remains relatively-steady year-round.  Instead gold’s major seasonality is demand-driven, with global investment demand varying considerably depending on the time in the calendar year.

This gold seasonality is fueled by well-known income-cycle and cultural drivers of outsized gold demand from around the world.  Starting in late summers, Asian farmers begin to reap their harvests.  As they figure out how much surplus income was generated from all their hard work during the growing season, they wisely plow some of their savings into gold.  Asian harvest is followed by India’s famous wedding season.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Stock-Markets

Sunday, July 31, 2022

US Fed Is Battling Excess Global Capital – Which Is Creating Inflation / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2022

By: Chris_Vermeulen

The US Fed continues to bring the big guns, raising rates another 75 bp (0.75%) on July 27, 2022. Even though they stated the economy is softening, current Inflation and CPI data suggest otherwise. The US Fed may be forced into another 75~100 bp rate increase next month if the US economy continues to show strong CPI and Inflation trends. There is only one other time in recent history like the current market environment – 1998~2004.

The DOT COM Bubble was unique in the sense that excess capital flowed into technology/internet companies’ hand-over-fist. It seemed all you had to do was register a URL, come up with some crazy business plan, and go talk to investors/VC. It was not a crisis like the 2008-09 Global Financial Crisis event. The DOT COM Bubble was a process of unwinding/consolidating excess capital away from a euphoric speculative phase in the markets.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Stock-Markets

Friday, July 29, 2022

What it's like at a Stocks Bear Market Bottom / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022

By: Nadeem_Walayat

This clip from March 2009 illustrates what it's like at a market bottom, that had analysts stating at Dow 6490 that the Dow was nowhere near a bottom which was at least another 20% to 25% further below.

AT THE BOTTOM

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Personal_Finance

Friday, July 29, 2022

How to lock in a Guaranteed 9.6% return from Uncle Sam With I Bonds / Personal_Finance / Inflation

By: Submissions

By Chris Reilly

Do you want to turn inflation to your advantage?

Be a financial winner while everyone else is losing to inflation?

Today, I’ll show you a little-known investment that can do exactly this for a part of your portfolio.

Best of all… it’s guaranteed by the US government.

You’ll want to act on this soon. Because inflation just keeps getting worse.

On July 13, the government released the latest numbers...
Read full article... Read full article...

 


Housing-Market

Friday, July 29, 2022

All You Need to Know About the Increase in Building Insurance Premiums for Flats / Housing-Market / Insurance

By: Boris_Dzhingarov

If you’ve not heard about the cost of living crisis, then you must have been living under a rock. Expenses are going up while wages are going down and the consequences can be felt across the country. Whether it’s the eye-watering cost of filling up your car or the hike in the bill when you finish your food shop, rising costs are affecting everyone.

Insurance premiums are just one of the casualties.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Housing-Market

Friday, July 29, 2022

The Challenges on the Horizon for UK Landlords / Housing-Market / Buy to Let

By: Boris_Dzhingarov

Climate change – it’s a phrase we’ve heard all too often in recent months, years, and decades. The UK government has begun to action aspects of its manifesto towards tackling the problem and as a result, there are stricter regulations coming into play that will begin to effect landlords across the country. With such changes in the not-too-distant future, many landlords might already start worrying about the cost. Fortunately, companies like Propp specialise in finding the best finance for any given property, especially short-term funding agreements that will assist in covering the costs incurred of getting a property to the standard it needs to be to meet upcoming laws and policies.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Stock-Markets

Tuesday, July 26, 2022

The Psychology of Investing in a Stocks Bear Market / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Every bull market is followed by a bear market and every bear market is followed by a bull market, where courtesy of the electron and inflation mega-trends the general indices are on an upwards exponential trend trajectory. Thus all bear markets are living on borrowed time and thus ones focus should be on accumulating positions in good stocks i.e. those that actually generate earnings and have good prospects for continuing earnings growth that courtesy of bear market negative sentiment results in prices trading to under value stocks i.e. to under X18 earnings, where everything above X18 is carrying a premium which is why I completely sold out of many stocks last year such as Amazon and Nvidia even though they had yet to peak due to the risks of a valuation reset as I covered in my in-depth analysis of August 2021

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Companies

Tuesday, July 26, 2022

Claiming and Calculating The Research and Development Tax Credit / Companies / SME

By: Sumeet_Manhas

The Die Steuergutschrift Für Forschung Und Entwicklung was established in 1981 to encourage research and development (R&D) in the United States. This tax credit works as a dollar-for-dollar offset against a taxpayer's liability for federal income tax and, in some cases, payroll tax.

            Because most states offer a credit analogous to the federal one, the total possible benefit, which includes both the federal and state credits, is often somewhere between 10 and 20 percent of qualified expenditures. Businesses operating in practically every sector of the economy reported R&D credits totaling more than an estimated $18 billion in the previous year.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Stock-Markets

Tuesday, July 26, 2022

Stock Market Bearish Test / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022

By: Monica_Kingsley

S&P 500 bears took over from the 4,010s area but didn‘t close convincingly – and bonds didn‘t tank, which means this rally isn‘t yet over. It may extend beyond Monday‘s premarket, and even cover all this time of upcoming key tech earnings reports. These wouldn‘t be as disastrous as is the market‘s expectation – suffice to look at Tesla. And if they are smart to avoid guidance for 2H 2022 (second half), S&P 500 may not stop above 4,030s in the least. HYG holds the key now, VIX isn‘t about to spike sharply, and the dollar isn‘t on a tear either.

Macroeconomically, we have many leading indicators dipping negative – such as the new orders component of the Philladelphia Fed manufacturing index, which makes U.S. recession at the end of 2022 / early 2023 a foregone conclusion. S&P global composite is now negative as namely Europe is struggling already. So, the stock market bulls are running on borrowed time, yet in the best case scenario, it can take longer than the next week for prices to resume their downswing – reality of not lower P/E multiples, but of lower earnings over the quarters ahead, would catch up with stocks as much as the stubborn inflation keeping above 5% no matter the coming two Fed rate hikes. Think stagflation with stocks in a trading range, and reversion to the mean strategies having a good time. More thoughts are reserved for premium subscribers.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Companies

Tuesday, July 26, 2022

Social Media Tips and Writing an Effective Call to Action / Companies / Social Media

By: Steve_Barker

Worldwide, there are about 4.14 billion social media users! While that large number might seem exciting, various companies are fighting for their attention.

Many people will scroll on by ads, marketing posts, and other promotional activities if they're not attention-grabbing. But how can you stand out from the crowd? Read this guide on how to write a call to action on social media, plus tips to succeed!

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Politics

Tuesday, July 26, 2022

Has Rishi Sunak Succeeded in Buying His Way Into No 10 - Fake Tory Leadership Contest / Politics / UK Politics

By: N_Walayat

It looks increasingly likely that Rishi Sunak's Billionaire father in law has managed to buy his son in law the Keys to No 10. Whilst we won't know the true cost of all of the behind the scenes shenanigans, it probably runs in the tens of millions. For India like most developing nations is politically corrupt where the Rich dictate who gets info office and so will give birth to the Sunak Premiership as his battle with Liz Truss is pure smoke and mirrors exercise to convince the electorate that there actually is a leaderships contest when it has all already been bought and paid for by daddy in law.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Friday, July 22, 2022

Why UK Cost of Living Crisis Will Get X10 Worse! Britain Heading for INFLATION CATASTROPHE! / Economics / Inflation

By: Nadeem_Walayat

UK CPI inflation has just nudged higher to 9.4% that is prompting the always wrong crowd to crow loudly about how peak inflation being just around the corner, however the herd remains completely blind to what is set to follow over the remainder of this decade and the funnel all of their weak brain power into regurgitating the same annual percentage change graphs, all whilst missing the Inflation big picture that warns that even if peak inflation i just around the corner to soon to be followed by inflation falling to say 6% or even 5%, however this is not going to make any difference to the INFLATION PAIN that is going to manifest over the coming years,

Britain's inflation goose is well and truly cooked as our inept government and even more moronic central bank have sleep walked Britain to back to the 1970;s which will manifest in a cost of living crisis that most are unprepared for as my latest video illustrates.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Commodities

Friday, July 22, 2022

Gold Will Come Out Stronger from the Economic Hurricane / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2022

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron


Recession calls are getting louder. If history is any guide, the bust is coming. Good news for gold!

An economic hurricane is coming. Brace yourselves! This is at least what Jamie Dimon suggested last month. To be precise, he said: “Right now, it's kind of sunny. Things are doing fine. Everyone thinks the Fed can handle this. That hurricane is right out there down the road, coming our way. We just don’t know if it's a minor one or Superstorm Sandy.” When JP Morgan Chase’s CEO is painting such a gloomy picture, you know that something serious is going to happen!
Read full article... Read full article...

 


Commodities

Friday, July 22, 2022

Do Fed Rate Decisions Affect The Price Patterns For Gold? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2022

By: Chris_Vermeulen

Many traders are focused on Gold as price has contracted over the past 5+ weeks, and the $1700 level is being retested. This prompted my team and I to do some research related to the US Federal Reserve’s recent rate increases and how Gold has previously reacted to rising and falling interest rates.

Exploring Price Patterns Between Gold and Fed Rate Decisions

I knew from the 2008-09 Global Financial Crisis and the 2020 COVID-19 event that Gold initially moves downward as extreme selling pressures drive almost all assets lower. Yet, in both cases, Gold quickly rebounded and began to move higher within 5+ weeks after setting up a bottom.

I started my research by outlining “Normal Fed Activity” and “Extended QE Fed Activity” to see if I could identify any difference in how Gold reacted to fear and uncertainty in these phases. My thinking was that Gold would react more muted in a price range in Normal Fed Activity phases because crisis events and economic uncertainty are more muted overall. When the Fed enters an expansive QE phase, this activity is associated with a US/Global economy that requires extraordinary measures to prompt expected normal capital functions.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Stock-Markets

Friday, July 22, 2022

Expert Says the Stock Market Tide Has Gone Out / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022

By: The_Gold_Report

Expert Michael Ballanger reviews the current market cycle, Elon Musk's impact on the stock market, and reveals the stock he says has a positive outlook amidst the chaotic backdrop of summer 2022.

As a sexagenarian market philosopher soon to become a septuagenarian market philosopher, I am finding myself somewhat embarrassed when younger people (other than family) ask me my opinion on something. I usually try to reply to their inquiry in the manner in which my father (RCAF WWII navigator William Roland Ballanger) used to advise me in the very early days of my hockey career when some youngster would come up for an autograph or a simple “Hi Mike” to which I would always stop, bend down to his height, extend my hand, and say, “Hello to you, and what would your name be?” at which point he (or she) would look up to their parent(s) for guidance and then (almost always) tell me.

At this point in the encounter, I would offer the beaming youngster my hand and as we shook, I would say, “It is a great pleasure to meet you, and thank you for saying hello.”

That behavior came from RCAF Navigator W.R. Ballanger who recounted the story from his life that dwelled in the realm of geopolitical nonsense in the days after the Nazi's threw a historically successful and prosperous German society into total ruin and starvation.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Stock-Markets

Thursday, July 21, 2022

Test drive EWI's Financial Forecast Service / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2022

By: EWI

Hi reader,

Market action this year has hurt A LOT of people. Cryptos. Meme stocks. Tech stocks. We've seen some huge percentage declines -- all against a backdrop of historic leaps in interest rates and inflation.

Lifestyles irrevocably changed, not for the better.

Economists missed it. The Fed missed it. Politicians missed it.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Stock-Markets

Thursday, July 21, 2022

Stock Market Peril Approaching / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022

By: Monica_Kingsley

S&P 500 had trouble extending gains, bonds didn‘t close on a strong note, and the dollar is readying an upswing. Can easily happen on the ECB move, and poof – there goes risk-on sentiment. Every hike is a move closer to demand destruction, and real assets are afraid – markets aren‘t yet sensing the Fed pivot, and concentrate on hawkish moves ahead. Quoting a bit from yesterday‘s premium analysis:

(…) Stocks are set to muddle through higher – this isn‘t yet the time to translate weakening earnings outlook or declining liquidity into the S&P 500 prices. Bonds need some time before their upswing continues. The dollar retreated, but hasn‘t yet made a top – that event is approaching, and would be seen in greater resilience in precious metals, namely gold. For now, the metals remain lackluster, with copper doing considerably worse (reaching $3.50 would be a success for the red metal this week really, I‘m not counting on that).

More thoughts are to be found within today‘s rich chart sections.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Stock-Markets

Thursday, July 21, 2022

Important: Are your Stocks in Stage 1, 2, 3, or 4? / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022

By: Submissions

By Justin Spittler

Every investor is asking the same question: When will stocks bottom?

As you know, the S&P 500 is down 20% this year and firmly in a bear market.

Since 1929, the S&P 500’s had 14 bear markets... lasting around 19 months, on average. Which means if the current bear market lasts an “average” length, we’ll see the bottom next summer.

But asking when stocks as a whole will bottom is the WRONG question. Instead, investors should be asking…

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Page << | 1 | 10 | 20 | 30 | 40 | 50 | 51 | 52 | 53 | 54 | 55 | 56 | 57 | 60 | 70 | 80 | 90 | 100 | 110 | 120 | 130 | 140 | 150 | 160 | 170 | 180 | 190 | 200 | 210 | 220 | 230 | 240 | 250 | 260 | 270 | 280 | 290 | 300 | 310 | 320 | 330 | 340 | 350 | 360 | 370 | 380 | 390 | 400 | 410 | 420 | 430 | 440 | 450 | 460 | 470 | 480 | 490 | 500 | 510 | 520 | 530 | 540 | 550 | 560 | 570 | 580 | 590 | 600 | 610 | 620 | 630 | 640 | 650 | 660 | 670 | 680 | 690 | 700 | 710 | 720 | 730 | 740 | 750 | 760 | 770 | 780 | 790 | 800 | 810 | 820 | 830 | 840 | 850 | 860 | 870 | 880 | 890 | 900 | 910 | 920 | 930 | 940 | 950 | 960 | 970 | 980 | 990 | 1000 | >>