Wednesday, December 13, 2017
Why the Saudis Failed to Cripple Qatar / Politics / Saudi Arabia
By: John_Mauldin
BY ALLISON FEDIRKA : Six months ago, Saudi Arabia announced the closure of its shared land border with Qatar in response to its supposed support of terrorism. The other Gulf Cooperation Council members denied Qatar use of their airspace and ports.
The measures were meant to bring the Qatari economy to its knees. However, the plan didn’t work out as planned and the effort ultimately failed.
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Wednesday, December 13, 2017
The Jobs Report Misled You—Job and Wage Growth Are Actually Decelerating / Economics / Employment
By: John_Mauldin
The monthly jobs report is one of the most important statistics for investors.
Yes, any single month doesn’t tell us much. Yes, the Labor Department’s methodology has some flaws, both major and minor, which I covered many times in my newsletter, Thoughts from the Frontline (subscribe here). But imperfect as it is, the jobs report is our best look at the economy’s pulse.
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Wednesday, December 13, 2017
2 Charts That Might Define the Fed’s Jerome Powell Era / Stock-Markets / US Federal Reserve Bank
By: F_F_Wiley
In September, we proposed a theory of the Fed and suggested that the FOMC will soon worry mostly about financial imbalances without much concern for recession risks. We reached that conclusion by simply weighing the reputational pitfalls faced by the economists on the committee, but now we’ll add more meat to our argument, using financial flows data released last week. We’ve created two charts, beginning with a look at cumulative, inflation-adjusted asset gains during the last seven business cycles:
Wednesday, December 13, 2017
UK Stagflation Risk As Inflation Hits 3.1% and House Prices Fall / Economics / Stagflation
By: GoldCore
– UK inflation hits 3.1%, highest in nearly six years
– UK earnings flat – households are still suffering falling real wages
– Stagflation risk as food and drink prices jumped 4.1% in 12 months
– UK house prices fall two-months in a row, down 0.5% in October
– Real stagflation risk now, inflation high and growth slowing
– Savings continue to be eaten by inflation
Wednesday, December 13, 2017
Stock Market Elliott Wave Forecasts - Is the World coming to the end? / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2017
By: ElliottWave-Forecast
We now live in an interesting time. Every day we wake up with the news about either World Indices make all-time records or bad news about terrorist attack and nuclear test. Historically, humans have gone through these stages and we were able to withstand all these events. At ElliottwaveForecast.com, we try to ignore all these events because, at the end, we believe in the Market Nature or code.
The Market or World Indices is not ready for a crash and we have been saying that for a while. $SPX had a chance for a major correction when it reached the 100% extension at 2234.00 area, but the Index hasn’t done anything and keeps going higher. We believe that the Market works as a whole and that looking only at the $SPX or an individual Index is not enough. For the last 6 years, many Elliott wave Theory participants have been calling for a 50% crash and the crash has never happened.
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Wednesday, December 13, 2017
A Method Traders Can Use to Confirm an Elliott Wave Count / InvestorEducation / Elliott Wave Theory
By: EWI
When you are watching a pattern develop on a chart, how can you be sure that your Elliott wave count is correct? Elliott Wave International's Senior Analyst Jeffrey Kennedy spent years designing his own technique to improve his accuracy. He came up with the Kennedy Channeling Technique, which he uses to confirm his wave counts. The following excerpt from Jeffrey's Trader's Classroom lessons offers an overview of his method. Get more trading lessons from Jeffrey in his popular free eBook, The Best of Trader's Classroom.
Wednesday, December 13, 2017
USDCNH Formed Triangle Pattern On Daily Chart / Currencies / China Currency Yuan
By: Franco_Shao
The USDCNH pair formed a triangle pattern on its daily chart for several weeks. All we can do is wait for a breakout to occur. The price is facing the upper line of the pattern now at around 6.6390. A breakout of this trend line could signal resumption of the uptrend from 6.4412.
Wednesday, December 13, 2017
Best Time / Month of Year to BUY a USED Car is DECEMBER, UK Analysis / Personal_Finance / Motoring
By: Nadeem_Walayat
A google search soon reveals that the consensus view of the best times of year to buy a used car in the UK tend to coalesce around the two plate changes of the year, i.e. 1st of March and 1st September as being the most commonly propagated online advice to buy just before and after the plate changes. Next often repeated are the dealers end of quarter sales targets for bonuses and other perks, namely by the end of March, June, Sept and December. And also often mentioned are expectations that the best used car deals tend to be in the winter months due to less consumer demand.
Tuesday, December 12, 2017
Which Central Bank Will Go Under First When the Everything Bubble Bursts? / Interest-Rates / Central Banks
By: Graham_Summers
In the aftermath of the Great Financial Crisis, Central Banks began cornering the sovereign bond market via Zero or even Negative interest rates and Quantitative Easing (QE) programs.
The goal here was to reflate the financial system by pushing the “risk free rate” to extraordinary lows. By doing this, Central Bankers were hoping to:
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Tuesday, December 12, 2017
New York Fed Inflation Gauge and Gold / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
The New York Fed created a new inflation gauge. What does it mean for the gold market?
The standard inflation measures are the CPI and the PCEPI. They are useful indicators of changes in consumer prices. However, they omit producer prices, commodity prices, or asset prices. Hence, the central banks’ focus on consumer prices makes them blind to asset prices bubbles and the broad inflation pressure. This was the case of both the Great Depression and the Great Recession: the CPI was stable, so the Fed did not perceived its monetary policy as easy, despite the impressive rise in stock and real estate markets.
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Tuesday, December 12, 2017
A Former Wall Street Veteran: Good Traders Are Born, Not Trained / Interest-Rates / Learn to Trade
By: John_Mauldin
BY JARED DILLIAN : Some people are better with money than others. Is it nature or nurture?
What I mean is: Can investing be taught, or does it come naturally?
I’m going to make a very controversial statement. Financial acumen is almost entirely nature. You are born with it.
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Tuesday, December 12, 2017
Buy Gold, Silver Time After Speculators Reduce Longs and Banks Reduce Shorts to Continue? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017
By: GoldCore
– Gold and silver COT suggests bottoming and price rally coming
– Speculators cut way back on long positions and added to short bets
– Commercials/banks significantly reduced short positions
– Commercial net short position saw biggest one-week decline in COMEX history
– ‘Big 4’ commercial traders decreased their short positions by 28,800 contracts
– Seasonally, January is generally a good month to own gold (see table)
– “If history is still reliable, January will be a great month to own precious metals”
Tuesday, December 12, 2017
2017 Was a Roller Coaster Year For UK Savers / Personal_Finance / Savings Accounts
By: MoneyFacts
As we come close to the end of 2017, the latest research from moneyfacts.co.uk shows it has been a roller coaster year for savers. Savings rates fell to record lows for various fixed bonds in January and for variable rates in February, but thankfully as the end of the year draws near, rates in both areas have improvement immensely.
Fixed rates have risen considerably this year, with the average five-year bond hitting 2.03%, its highest level since July 2016 when it was 2.05%. The short-term bonds have also recovered to the extent that today, the average one-year bond stands at 1.17%, its highest point since July 2016 when it was 1.20%.
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Tuesday, December 12, 2017
Will Gold and Diamonds Rival Bitcoin in Tokenized Economy? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017
By: Nicholas_Kitonyi
Whenever I look at the Bitcoin price chart, it makes no sense and that means investors no longer move the market, but rather, the market moves them. If the prices are skyrocketing, instead of sitting back and looking at what’s behind the rally, they are now joining the bandwagon without taking a second to think.Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, December 12, 2017
Masters of Economic and Political Illusion – in Taxes, Debt, Government, and Markets / Politics / US Politics
By: Raymond_Matison
We are a gullible people, and have become more so with the evolution and development of ever more persuasive propaganda. We accept many commonly popular economic or political “established facts” as truth almost without question. We forget or are ignorant of the fact that there are large well financed organizations in whose interest it is to provide us with information and views that will polarize our own thinking and values to parallel those of these powerful influences. In effect we are provided with the scaffolding for an illusion which we fill in according to our own personal, but mainstream media propaganda and other organization-channeled input. In creating such illusions it seems appropriate to paraphrase President Reagan’s comment: it’s not that we are ignorant, but that we know so much that simply isn’t so.
Tuesday, December 12, 2017
Approved Used Land Rover Main Dealer Real Customer Buying Guide - Hunters, Chester / Personal_Finance / Land Rover
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Thinking of buying an 'approved used' Land Rover Discovery Sport (HSE Black) or any of the range rover models? Then here is what a 'real' customer can expect when buying from a main dealer. This video illustrates the process a typical buyer can expect from a Land Rover dealer (Hunters) from as soon as one drives onto the dealerships forecourt, test driving, documentation, part exchanging, paperwork, insuring, taxing and payment, all the way to when one drives off with their car a few hours later. The 'REAL' experience of what to expect over the 'approved used' sales pitch list of x,y,z, which does not quite pan out in reality.
Tuesday, December 12, 2017
Our MSCI ETF Forecast BEFORE the 47 Percent, 12-Month Gain / Companies / Company Chart Analysis
By: EWI
Our MSCI ETF Forecast BEFORE the 47 Percent, 12-Month Gain
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Tuesday, December 12, 2017
Gold Price 100% Bullish Signal / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017
By: P_Radomski_CFA
During yesterday’s week, we saw breakdowns and major declines in all parts of the precious metals sector. Even the HUI to gold ratio broke below the key low. Yet, there is something that we saw based on last week’s closing prices that had 100% bullish efficiency in the past few years. What is it and how we can use this knowledge?
Before moving to the details of the above bullish sign, let’s check what changed in gold (charts courtesy of http://stockcharts.com).
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Tuesday, December 12, 2017
Epic Stock Market & Fixed Income Bubble Will Not End Well / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2017
By: Michael_Pento
Mike Gleason: It is my privilege now to welcome in Michael Pento, President and founder of Pento Portfolio Strategies and author of the book, The Coming Bond Market Collapse: How to Survive the Demise of the U.S. Debt Market. Michael is a well-known and successful money manager and has been a regular guest on CNBC, Bloomberg, Fox Business News, and also the Money Metals Podcast, and shares is astute insights on markets and geopolitics from the perspective of an Austrian School economist's viewpoint.
Monday, December 11, 2017
Soaring Deficits Force US Treasury into Foolish Debt Gamble / Interest-Rates / US Debt
By: Michael_Pento
The Treasury opened the fiscal year 2018 with an October budget deficit of $63.2 billion. That is 37.9% larger than the $45.8 billion deficit in October of last year. The primary reason behind this surge in year-over-year deficits was a 21.6% increase in net interest expenses. The annual red-ink problem looks even greater when recognizing that the national debt is already over 105% of Gross Domestic Product (GDP), at nearly $21 trillion, and with an additional $10 trillion projected to be added in the next ten years.