Friday, December 08, 2017

Bitcoin Parabolic Mania / Currencies / Bitcoin

By: Zeal_LLC

Bitcoin’s meteoric skyrocketing this year has been astonishing, captivating traders across the globe.  This once-obscure cryptocurrency has exploded into the world’s hottest market.  With fortunes being won on paper, everyone is talking about bitcoin.  But with its price shooting parabolic, unfortunately this wild ride has all the hallmarks of a classic popular speculative mania.  And those all end badly, totally collapsing.

In the annals of financial-market history, the word “mania” is never used lightly.  These are very-rare events where some market blasts higher so radically that it captures the popular imagination.  The dictionary definitions of mania include “an excessively intense enthusiasm, interest, or desire” and “a pathological state characterized by euphoric mood, excessive activity or talkativeness, and impaired judgment”.

Friday, December 08, 2017

SPX Make a 61.8% Retracement / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2017

By: Anthony_Cherniawski

SPX has been challenging the Cycle Top at 4649.38 which is very close to the 61.8% retracement at 2649.68. This may be the final probe with a reversal to follow. From there a panic decline may develop. A 4.3 day decline may take the SPX until Thursday to find a bottom.

While even some bears are expecting another push higher, the Model says a nasty decline may be imminent.

Friday, December 08, 2017

Gold, Stocks and Bonds - The 3 Amigos Update / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2017

By: Gary_Tanashian

I realize this theme could be wearing on some people, but with all the subtlety of a sledgehammer I am going to pound it until it either aborts or completes. It is, in my opinion, too important not to.

Amigo 1: Stock Market vs. Gold

The pattern that formed from 2015 to 2017 measures to 2.50. The 38% Fib retrace level just happens to be that as well. Interpretation: Bullish until the 2.50 area is reached, then major caution.

Friday, December 08, 2017

Merry Christmas to You - Gold Bullion Premiums at Multi-Year Lows / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017

By: GoldSilver

There’s nothing like a bargain during the holidays. And here’s an unexpected one even I was surprised to see…

It’s not easy to dig up industry-wide data on coin and bar premiums. To do it manually is incredibly time-consuming and then would be out of date as soon as you published it, since premiums always fluctuate.

Friday, December 08, 2017

Gold Stocks Break, Gold to Follow / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017

By: Jordan_Roy_Byrne

We’ve been persistently bearish on precious metals since September and that has annoyed our readers. The weak price action, negative divergences and bearish fundamentals are too much to currently overcome for the time being. The gold stocks finally cracked this week and have lost another 7%-8% in only the past seven trading sessions. Silver and Gold denominated in foreign currencies have joined the breakdown. Gold meanwhile has not broken down yet but all indications are that it will soon.

Friday, December 08, 2017

Republicans Fake Tax Reform / Politics / Taxes

By: Peter_Schiff

After supposedly chomping on the bit for years to pass meaningful tax reform, Republicans are now set to blow an historic opportunity. Whatever version of the Bill that emerges from the House and Senate Conference Committee (which will be signed by President Trump faster than he can down a Filet o'Fish), will be far less than the Republicans envisioned when they finally captured the White House and both Congressional Chambers in 2016. But from what I have seen of the particulars, the revisions to the tax code will offer a marginal, although temporary, win for low income individuals, a major slap for moderately successful wage earners and home owners, (especially in the high tax Blue States) and a huge victory for the extremely wealthy and certain categories of business owners. While it is certain that the plan will add to the growing deficit, its immediate economic and political impact is hard to predict.

Friday, December 08, 2017

Will Technology Spur Gold Demand? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

This week, the WGC released a market update entitled “Technology – a brighter outlook?”. What are the main conclusions of the report?

On Tuesday, the World Gold Council published its latest report about the technology sector’s demand for the yellow metal. The main point is that we see a rebound in gold’s use in electronics. As it is commonly known, gold’s physical properties (such as high electrical conductivity) make it an excellent metal for wide use in electronics. But due to high prices and the advancing substitution in the electronics sector, the volume of gold used in technology has decreased in recent years.

Friday, December 08, 2017

Stock Market Bounce May be Over / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2017

By: Anthony_Cherniawski

SPX appears to have completed a 38.2% retracement of its decline from the top. Yesterday’s 23.6% apparently allowed room for one more push higher. This is what I had originally expected.

Friday, December 08, 2017

4 Charts That Show How Trump Tax Cuts Will Trigger A Recession / Economics / Recession 2018

By: John_Mauldin

BY PATRICK WATSON : Not so long ago, I explained why tax cuts won’t stimulate the economy as much as Republicans think.

In short, most CEOs say they will use any tax savings for stock buybacks or dividends, not new hiring or expansion.

But what if, instead of little or no growth, this tax bill sets off an outright contraction?

Friday, December 08, 2017

The US Fed Might Shrink to Two Members in 2018 / Politics / US Federal Reserve Bank

By: John_Mauldin

BY JOHN MAULDIN : In talking with some of my Fed-watching friends, it appears the world’s most important central bank is about to experience some potentially profound changes—not just in personnel but more importantly in the kind of people who lead it.

Those changes could, in turn, have some serious economic impacts, so it’s worth taking a deeper look.  

But before we get into the impending changes at the Fed, let’s quickly review how the organization works.

Thursday, December 07, 2017

Precious Metals Breaking Down! 3 Amigos to Abort? 4 Horsemen to Ride? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017

By: Gary_Tanashian

I am not trying to be a wise guy with the first half of the title (it’s a goof on alarmist media), but if you were not bear biased or outright bearish on the gold sector’s daily and weekly technicals, and its macro and sector fundamentals by now all you have left are the alarmist headlines now telling us about H&S breakdowns, HUI/Gold ratio bearishness and whatever else is going on out there in media large and small to scare the lowly gold bug.

Thursday, December 07, 2017

The One Oil Market Indicator OPEC Must Watch / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: OilPrice_Com

“We will not let go of our current approach until we reach a balanced market,” Saudi oil minister Khalid al-Falih said Monday at a news conference in Riyadh.

OPEC ended months of speculation last week when it decided to extend its production cuts through the end of 2018, easing concerns that the limits would be lifted before the oil market was ready. But while it put some uncertainty to rest, the next question is what OPEC does when the oil market becomes “balanced”? What is the exit strategy?

Thursday, December 07, 2017

Bitcoin Just Smashed Through $12k… Wait, $13k… Now $14k… This Is Getting Ridiculous! / Currencies / Bitcoin

By: Jeff_Berwick

It was less than a week ago that we posted, “Bitcoin Smashes Through $10k... Wait... $11k! What The Fk Is Going On?”

Now, in the last 24 hours, it has smashed through $12k, then $13k and now $14k to a new all-time high over $14,200.

Thursday, December 07, 2017

Stock Market Tops Look Like This / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2017

By: Enda_Glynn

The signs of crazed speculation just keep pouring in these days.
We another Doozie from the Bloomberg wire today!
TD Ameritrade tracks its clients inflows and outflows from retail accounts on a monthly basis.
you can follow it here

November saw the largest inflow into stocks in the index's history,
surging the index to a new all time high.

Thursday, December 07, 2017

Following 6 Critical Rules will make you a better Investor... / InvestorEducation / Learning to Invest

By: EWI

Face the facts -- investing isn't easy. If it was, everyone would be successful. Successful investing takes hard work and discipline.

Famed financial analyst Robert Prechter has identified the 6 critical rules successful investors follow. Learning the rules is the easy part -- putting them into action is what will make you a success.

Read Prechter's free report, Six Critical Money-Making Rules for Investors, now.....

Thursday, December 07, 2017

Crude Oil, Oil Stocks and Invalidation of Breakouts / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Nadia_Simmons

On Tuesday, crude oil wavered between small gains and losses, but finally closed another day under the upper border of the short-term rising trend channel. Will this show of oil bulls’ weakness trigger further deterioration in the coming days? Will the relationship between black gold and oil stocks give us more clues about future moves?

Thursday, December 07, 2017

Finally, An Honest Inflation Index – Guess What It Shows / Economics / Inflation

By: John_Rubino

Central bankers keep lamenting the fact that record low interest rates and record high currency creation haven’t generated enough inflation (because remember, for these guys inflation is a good thing rather than a dangerous disease).

To which the sound money community keeps responding, “You’re looking in the wrong place! Include the prices of stocks, bonds and real estate in your models and you’ll see that inflation is high and rising.”

Thursday, December 07, 2017

Bitcoin - Please, Please, Please, Don’t Let Fear Of Missing Out Lead Your Investment Decisions / InvestorEducation / Learning to Invest

By: John_Mauldin

BY JARED DILLIAN : This tweet was getting retweeted all over the place last weekend. Apologies for the bad language.

For starters, the guy’s Twitter handle is “bitstein.” But anyway. This is the fable of the grasshopper and the ant.

Thursday, December 07, 2017

Why Bank Presidents Could Rule the Fed Next Year / Politics / US Federal Reserve Bank

By: John_Mauldin

There’s a possibility the Fed will shrink to three—or even two—governors next year. I wrote about this in great length in my latest Thoughts from the Frontline, and I highly suggest you give it a read.

Among other things, the missing governors could have an enormous impact on monetary policy.  But before we delve into the implications again, I must explain the Fed’s Byzantine organizational scheme.

Thursday, December 07, 2017

Bitcoin Doesn’t Exist – 2 / Currencies / Bitcoin

By: Raul_I_Meijer

Chapter 1 of this five-part series by Dr. D is here: Bitcoin Doesn’t Exist – 1

Chapter 3 will follow shortly.

Dr. D: You have to understand what exchanges are and are not. An exchange is a central point where owners post collateral and thereby join and trade on the exchange. The exchange backs the trades with their solvency and reputation, but it’s not a barter system, and it’s not free: the exchange has to make money too. Look at the Comex, which reaches back to the early history of commodities exchange which was founded to match buyers of say, wheat, like General Mills, with producers, the farmers. But why not just have the farmer drive to the local silo and sell there? Two reasons: one, unlike manufacturing, harvests are lumpy. To have everyone buy or sell at one time of the year would cripple the demand for money in that season. This may be why market crashes happen historically at harvest when the demand for money (i.e. Deflation) was highest. Secondly, however, suppose the weather turned bad: all farmers would be ruined simultaneously.