US Unemployment is a Fake Statistic

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Whilst everyone focuses on the unemployment rate as a gauge for economic activity, however the statistic has been engineered to the extent to become meaningless as shadow stats illustrates.

And the situation is even worse or better depending on ones perspective, in that the average work week has been continuously shrinking following the start of the age of the microprocessor, i.e. tech has been acting to reduce the average number of hours worked through both booms and busts, that AI looks set to accelerate all the way towards a Universal Basic Income.

What does this mean?
It means many of the statistics that the academics follow are skewed or trending in a particular direction over time, so economists are misreading when they state for today's worker as working LESS on average then a worker of 20 years go. So saying that AI is going to deliver a lower work week is not something in the distant future, it has already been happening since the birth of the microprocessor and this trend will continue.

Implications for stocks
Take economic stats such as the unemployment rate, non farm payrolls and such with a pinch of salt unless they have been normalised for the impact of tech, as they give a misleading picture, which is why economists keep getting wrong footed in that a. they forget their statistics are fake, and b. That there is a technological AI megatrend in motion that impacts on all areas of the economy. This is the problem with academic economists they will fail to peel enough layers away to get to uncover what is actually going on and thus tend to miss the big picture.

This video is an excerpt from my in-depth analysis and concluding S&P detailed trend forecast for 2024 - S&P Stock Market Analysis, Detailed Trend Forecast Jan to Dec 2024 has first been made available to patrons who support my So for immediate first access to ALL of my analysis and trend forecasts then do consider becoming a Patron by supporting my work for just $5 per month, this is your last chance to lock it in now at $5 before it soon rises to $7 per month for new sign-ups. https://www.patreon.com/Nadeem_Walayat.

Analysis that seeks to replicate the accuracy of 2023:

S&P Stock Market Analysis, Detailed Trend Forecast Jan to Dec 2024

CONTENTS
Investing in the Stock Market is Like Boxing With Mike Tyson
Keep Calm and Carry on Buying Quantum AI Tech Stocks
Synthetic Intelligence
The Roaring AI 2020's
Stock Market 2023 Trend Forecast Review
STOCK MARKET DISCOUNTING EVENTS BIG PICTURE
Major Market lows by Calendar Month
US Exponential Budget Deficit
QE4EVER
US Stock Market Addicted to Deficit Spending
INFLATION and the Stock Market Trend
US Unemployment is a Fake Statistic
S&P Real Earnings Yield
S&P EGF EPS Growth
When WIll the Fed Pivot
Stocks and Inverted Yield Curve
The Bond Trade and Interest Rates
US Dollar Trend 2024
US Recession Already Happened in 2022!
US Presidential Election Cycle and Recessions
Margin Debt
Stock Market Breadth
Stock Market Investor Sentiment
Bitcoin S&P Pattern
SP Long-term Trend Analysis
Dow Annual Percent Change
Stock Market Volatility (VIX)
S&P SEASONAL ANALYSIS
Correlating Seasonal Swings
Presidential Election Cycle Seasonal
Best Time of Year to Invest in Stocks
Formulating a Stock Market Trend Forecast
S&P Stock Market Trend Forecast Jan to Dec 2024
Quantum AI Tech Stocks Portfolio
Primary AI Stocks
AI - Secondary Stocks
TESLA

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Copyright © 2005-2023 Marketoracle.co.uk (Market Oracle Ltd). All rights reserved.

Nadeem Walayat has over 30 years experience of trading derivatives, portfolio management and analysing the financial markets, including one of few who both anticipated and Beat the 1987 Crash. Nadeem's forward looking analysis focuses on UK inflation, economy, interest rates and housing market. He is the author of five ebook's in the The Inflation Mega-Trend and Stocks Stealth Bull Market series that can be downloaded for Free.

Nadeem is the Editor of The Market Oracle, a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication that presents in-depth analysis from over 1000 experienced analysts on a range of views of the probable direction of the financial markets, thus enabling our readers to arrive at an informed opinion on future market direction. http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

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