A Recession is Brewing

Economics / Recession 2023 Nov 04, 2023 - 07:03 PM GMT

A reminder that a recession is brewing as illustrated by the US Presidential Election Cycle and Recessions analysis (Stock Market Gasping to Reach 4000 Ahead of Earnings Season, Dow New All Time High 2023?)

A recession was never probable for 2023, an MSM always imminent nothing burger that we have been exposed to since Q1 of 2022, hence why most were caught wrong footed and failed to invest going into the October 2022 low as all expected an imminent recession to deliver S&P 3200 or lower as illustrated by the high priests of nothing burgers JP Morgan.

A recession is brewing, when I look at the likes of the Non Farm payrolls unlike most out there I don't strength, instead I see a MARKET JUNCTURE!

All markets peak in Euphoria and so it is with US employment where what we hear today is of a soft landing, goldilocks, though it never tends to pan out that way, I recall for virtually the whole of 2007 and most of 2008 all we heard was soft landing BS in the housing markets, when as I concluded in August 2007 the housing markets were going to CRASH, enter into a severe bear market, banks would go bust! A year before the fact! Here you can read the original analysis for yourself - 22 Aug 2007 - UK Housing Market Crash of 2007 - 2008 and Steps to Protect Your Wealth

So why the soft landing mantra, why did they all stick their heads in the sand, FEAR and DENIAL that's why, it was too painful to contemplate that which was set to pass and hence most sleep walked into the Financial Armageddon of Mid September 2008 when Lehman's went bust and set all of the banking crime syndicate dominos to fall that we got a small taste of earlier his year with the regional banks. The banks ARE a CRIME SYNDICATE, it's how the system is structured, thus the banking crisis is PERPETUAL! Without END! The criminals are imbedded so deep that there is nothing that can extricate them from the system, all we can do is to limit exposure to the crime syndicate and it's inflationary consequences,

And this is before we even consider the fact that the official unemployment statistics are FAKE as I covered in an recent article so won't repeat here, just that so many folks are acting on the basis of inaccurate bad data hence tend to get caught off guard when they find that the real economy is in a recession whilst the official data states not.

So we will have a recession during 2024, the magnitude of which is unquantifiable at this stage because we don't know what could BLOW UP, but I am pretty confident that it will be good for US bonds at least, when things blow up the Fed steps in to pump money into the system, forcing bond yields down that ignites the next inflation wave as the Inflation Mega-trend is EXPONENTIAL, meanwhile the econofools peddle the false narrative of always imminent deflation, PAID STOOGES is what they are, Economics is a priest hood of paid stooges, a false religion!

And here's a tid bit of information you may not be aware of which is that Democrat presidencies tend to CREATE far more jobs than Republicans.

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S&P

Targeting 4600 Mid Summer 2023 Top followed by correction to below 4150 into October 2023.

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By Nadeem Walayat

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Nadeem Walayat has over 30 years experience of trading derivatives, portfolio management and analysing the financial markets, including one of few who both anticipated and Beat the 1987 Crash. Nadeem's forward looking analysis focuses on UK inflation, economy, interest rates and housing market. He is the author of five ebook's in the The Inflation Mega-Trend and Stocks Stealth Bull Market series that can be downloaded for Free.

Nadeem is the Editor of The Market Oracle, a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication that presents in-depth analysis from over 1000 experienced analysts on a range of views of the probable direction of the financial markets, thus enabling our readers to arrive at an informed opinion on future market direction. http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any trading losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors before engaging in any trading activities.

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