Analysis Topic: Stock & Financial Markets

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Saturday, July 02, 2016

Stock Market Getting Extremely Overbought.....After Extremely Oversold..... / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016

By: Jack_Steiman

The market spent days wondering what would happen with Brexit. Would Britain leave or stay was the big question. A surprise vote of leave had the global markets heading south in a very big way. Our markets took quite a powerful, two-day hit, which allowed the short-term sixty-minute RSI's reach extremely oversold at 15 on the key index charts. After two days of downside, the markets reversed without warning and headed straight north, which allowed the RSI's to approach 80. An over 100-point turn-around occurred on the RSI in roughly three and a half days. That's amazing. Truly unheard of. Things went from intense fear and panic to complete froth, and the need to be in at any cost. Emotional swings like that is something you really never see in such a short period of time. The market is acting more and more like this as time moves along.

Friday, July 01, 2016

SPX testing critical resistance...again / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016

By: Anthony_Cherniawski

You may remember the Expanded Flat level at 2116.00, representing the November 3 high. The June 8 high slightly overshot it at 2120.55. Well, today’s target happens to be…2116.00 again! You simply cannot make this up. It may slightly overshoot (again), but this may be the most critical resistance that we have seen.

Friday, July 01, 2016

Stock Market Rally is Wearning Thin / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016

By: Anthony_Cherniawski

SPX is pulling back from a 21-wave impulse to 2096.68. The rally cannot get any steeper than this as the rally made 5.27% in three days. An 86.3% retracement.

For simplicity sake, I am labeling this Wave C of (2), which makes this an irregular correction. For political sake, this quarter needed to close above the March 31 closing price of 2059.74, about a 1.5% gain (with lots of volatility) for the past quarter. The trendline may be crossed at or below 2090.00.

Thursday, June 30, 2016

Stock Market SPX Rally Nearing its End as DB Gets Slammed / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016

By: Anthony_Cherniawski

The SPX Premarket is up just a point. The rally may be over, or nearly so. There is a 50% probability of a last probe to the 50-day Moving Average at 2076.45 or slightly higher. Today has a minor pivot, but tomorrow’s pivot is very strong. My best analysis suggests a flat to mildly down day with the fireworks beginning tomorrow.

Thursday, June 30, 2016

S&P 500 Gets Back Above 2,050 Mark, As Investors Shrug Off Brexit News / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016

By: Paul_Rejczak

Briefly: In our opinion, no speculative positions are justified.

Our intraday outlook is neutral, and our short-term outlook is neutral. Our medium-term outlook remains bearish, as the S&P 500 index extends its lower highs, lower lows sequence:

Intraday outlook (next 24 hours): neutral
Short-term outlook (next 1-2 weeks): neutral
Medium-term outlook (next 1-3 months): bearish
Long-term outlook (next year): neutral

Thursday, June 30, 2016

Stock Market: Massive Breadth Thrust / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016

By: Gary_Savage

Two 90% up volume days in a row. Historically that kind of breadth thrust has generated yearly returns of 20% or better. The perma bears just got kicked in the teeth again. This kind of massive breadth thrust is similar to what we saw out of the February bottom, and typical of a market moving out of a multi-year cycle low.

Thursday, June 30, 2016

BrExit Stock Market Upwards Crash as FTSE Recovers 100% of Friday Plunge / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Friday's stock market plunge in the wake of BrExit that caught the financial markets, bookmakers and pollsters by surprise who had by the close of polls all but discounted a REMAIN outcome and thus sent stock futures and sterling soaring, only to do a panic reversal a couple of hours later as the actual results started to be announced with the initial triggers being results out of Sunderland and Newcastle. And so with each result a new wave of selling would hit the markets that by 5am had seen the FTSE futures plunge to below 5800, and sterling to spike below £/$ 1.32. Which triggered waves of doom laden commentary warning of End Times for the UK economy, stocks, housing and sterling, as so called analysts published reams and reams of nonsense to explain why the End Was now and stocks were set to literally crash into a brexit black hole.

Wednesday, June 29, 2016

Stock Market Rally Runs Out of Steam / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016

By: Anthony_Cherniawski

If you look closely at the low, you will see a double bottom. The first is at 1991.72 and the second is at 1991.68. I have concluded that the second low is a Wave [v]. It is unusual to have that small a new low to make a wave, but no rules are broken and the pattern fits. That suggests Wave 2 may be complete or nearly so.

The 61.8% Fib calculation is 2066.85, so that retracement is accomplished. In addition, Short-term resistance at 2068.05 has also been reached.

Wednesday, June 29, 2016

Intermediate Cycle Low for Stocks? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016

By: Gary_Savage

Traders need to be careful for the rest of the week. In a natural market the daily cycle should still have further to fall and after a bounce there should be one more leg down. But as I have warned over and over, we no longer have free markets. We have not had free markets since the SEC banned short sales on financials back in 2008. So it’s entirely possible the PPT intervened today and that’s all we are going to get for an intermediate cycle low.

Wednesday, June 29, 2016

FTSE and Sterling Brexit Trading, Deconstruction of the EU Referendum Result / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2016

By: Nadeem_Walayat

On Thursday 23rd of June 2016 the people of Britain confounded all expectations by voting to LEAVE the European Union, triggering political pundits in the mainstream media to write reams and reams of gibberish for why Britain voted for Brexit, when the reason why is very simple and self evident in the results themselves! Namely that the people of Britain from right across England and Wales rebelled against the London Westminister elite, and so London along and a few other southern regions were the only ones to vote for REMAIN.

Wednesday, June 29, 2016

Brexit, Cycles and The Revolt Against Globalism / Stock-Markets / Cycles Analysis

By: Clif_Droke

Everywhere one turns there is evidence of widespread rage and frustration. The peoples of Europe and the Americas in particular are aggrieved at their political lot and are becoming increasingly angry. What was once a simmering resentment has become a boiling cauldron of discontent.

The latest token of this growing anger is the outcome of Britain's vote to leave the EU. The majority of British voters have decided they've had enough of austerity and have expressed their unhappiness in no uncertain terms, much to the consternation of global financial markets. This in turn has inspired other European countries to pursue independence from the Union.

Wednesday, June 29, 2016

Stock Market 13-14 Month Cycle Low / Stock-Markets / Cycles Analysis

By: Ed_Carlson

The 20th century market guru, George Lindsay, explained that, no matter how long a bear market lasts, there is usually an obvious low 13 to 14 months after the previous bull market high (in this case, May 2015). This 13-14 month low is important even though it may not be the low of the Basic Cycle. 13-14 months is the time span of a long Basic Decline.

"Not just any secondary top or bottom. But the secondary high or low, the one that fairly jumps out at you from a bar chart."

Tuesday, June 28, 2016

Brexit Vote and Stocks / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016

By: Gary_Savage

The Brexit vote has triggered an intermediate cycle decline in the stock market. I’m expecting a bear flag and then a final drop into the bottom, but traders also have to be wary of an intervention that could terminate the rest of the decline prematurely. We may have gotten the bottom yesterday. This is why I don’t sell short. You are fighting an opponent with a printing press.

Tuesday, June 28, 2016

Stock Market Bounce May be Over / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016

By: Anthony_Cherniawski

Good Morning!

It appears that SPX has retraced to the 2-hour Cycle Bottom in the Premarket. The bounce may be over. We’ll know more after the open.

ZeroHedge reports, “After a historic two-day selloff, which as shown yesterday slammed European banks by the most on record...

... the wildly oversold conditions, coupled with hopes for yet another global, coordinated central bank intervention, coupled with modest hope that David Cameron's trip to Brussels today may resolve some of the Article 50 gridlock, have been sufficient to prompt a modest buying scramble among European stocks in early trading, with the pound and commodities all gaining for the first time since the shock Brexit vote.”

Tuesday, June 28, 2016

Stock Market Meltdown Likely to Drive Gold Towards $1,500 ) / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016

By: Michael_Swanson

I'm sure you are well aware of the big stock market drop that hit the US stock market on Friday as the DOW fell over 600 points following the UK BREXIT vote.

Almost every sector of the stock market fell except for gold and Treasury bonds.

I believe that what we saw on Friday was the simple start of a big drop that is going to turn into a total stock market meltdown in the coming weeks.

In fact the whole drop may not end for a few months.

Tuesday, June 28, 2016

Not a Pretty Day for the Stock Market / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016

By: Harry_Boxer

The stock market indices certainly suffered a downside, follow-through today, and a sharp one. The indices plunged early on and kept on going. At midmorning they reached an important low near 4180 Nasdaq 100 and 1991 S&P 500. They traveled into midday, came back in the afternoon, retested the lows, held it, and in the last half hour they bounced a pretty significant one, but I’m not sure what that means. The bottom line is they closed sharply lower.

Tuesday, June 28, 2016

Stock Market SPY Kiss of Death ? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016

By: Joseph_VanDerveer

Everyone wants to now what that market is going to do next.  Most technicians I talk to are Bullish and that makes me nervous.

But not really, since I have had these dates for a while using my own proprietary cycle analysis.

 It plain old sucks being on the wrong side of the trade, that is for sure. 

Tuesday, June 28, 2016

Tomorrow may tell us what kind of Stock Market Decline we Face / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016

By: Anthony_Cherniawski

Let’s put this decline into perspective for a minute. The 2113.32 high is the equivalent of the December 29 high at 2081.56. In the first two days of that decline (12-29 to 31-2015) SPX declined to 2043.62, a 37.94 point drop. Today we have completed the second day of the decline from 2113.32 and have travelled 121.60 points, 3.2 times the distance of the December-January decline. Wave [iii] of C in January declined by 269.27 points. Do the math. This is huge.

Tuesday, June 28, 2016

Stock Market 200-Day Goes Away...Bears Get The Follow-Through Day / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016

By: Jack_Steiman

The bears have watched the exponential moving averages hold all pullbacks since the February lows of this year. No matter which moving average was on top, and which was on the bottom, the bottom moving average held each and every pullback, if it got that far. Most pullbacks contained by the first, and at the most, the second moving average off the top. Things got so bullish that the moving averages were aligned bullish as well with the 20's on the top, the 50's in the middle and the 200's on the bottom. Several weeks back the bears did attempt a move to that last moving average, or the 200-day, but it held very easily. We made our second attempt on the S&P 500 today, and it was lights out. The bulls didn't even put up a fight.

Tuesday, June 28, 2016

Brexit Psyop: Greenspan Falsely Blames the Brits for the Crash and Chaos to Follow / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016

By: Jeff_Berwick

This Jubilee Year is advancing just as I have predicted, with all the major elements of a worldwide catastrophe now in place.

On Monday, the markets continued to collapse, with every major European stock market down 2-3% and the Dow currently down 300 points following Black Friday which, we now know, was the worst sell-off in worldwide stock markets in history, losing a combined $2 trillion.

The previous largest sell-off in history occurred 7 years, 7 months, 7 weeks and 7 days prior, on the Shemitah end day of September 29, 2008, when $1.9 trillion was erased in one day.