It appears that SPX may be waiting for the Jobs Report tomorrow morning at 8:30 am to reveal its intent. This is my primary Wave structure for SPX. It follows an irregular Wave pattern that fits within the Orthodox Broadening Top. Although the Broadening Top allows for a probe to or beyond 2120.55, but does not require it. As it stands, Wave [v] of 5 is very nearly equal to Wave [i] of 5, satisfying a wave relationship and indicating a probable completion.

Should today’s high be the top, we may see an 8.6 day decline to July 19, which appears to be a Trading cycle low. The initial target appears to be near 1931.00, but it could go much lower. A suggested low may be near the Cycle bottom support at 1889.57.

A market top must have agreement across multiple currencies in order to effect a true trend change. In this case, the SPX/XEU gives a good example of a probable trend change about to take place. Should the USD continue its decline to 90.50, this would be a double whammy on Europeans fleeing into the SPX as a safe haven. The SPX peaked out in Yen by mid-April, so ther two major currencies support the decline in SPX.

The only currency in which the SPX is appreciating rapidly is the British Pound Sterling. Even that trend may take a breather while SPX declines.

There you have it. The rally may be over, or nearly so. Let’s see if tomorrow morning’s news is enough of a catalyst to put some distance in this decline.

I may not be able to report to you all day tomorrow, since Iam involved in a day trip to Indiana. The Weekend Update is my next scheduled project.

Regards,

Tony

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Disclaimer: The content in this article is written for educational and informational purposes only. There is no offer or recommendation to buy or sell any security and no information contained here should be interpreted or construed as investment advice. Do you own due diligence as the information in this article is the opinion of Anthony M. Cherniawski and subject to change without notice.

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