Analysis Topic: Stock & Financial Markets
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.Thursday, January 19, 2017
Trump Inauguration Day Will Be a Big Turning Point in the Stock Market / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2017
BY JARED DILLIAN : Was anybody here trading in 2003?
It was the year we invaded Iraq (regrettably). The markets were expecting a decisive victory. During the days and weeks when American troops advanced on Baghdad, the market climbed. As they entered Baghdad and marched on the center of the city, the market traded higher and higher.
Finally, American troops fastened a rope around the neck of Saddam Hussein’s statue and attached the other end to a tank. The world watched on television as the tank backed down and toppled the statue.
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Thursday, January 19, 2017
Stock Market Trading Patience Pays Off with CHK Using Momentum Reversals / Stock-Markets / Stock Index Trading
One of the key tenants of my Momentum Reversal trading is “waiting for the right trigger/event and getting in early”. I find this is one of the most difficult aspects for most clients to understand and master. Therefore, in an attempt to further illustrate some components of my thinking and strategy, I have put together these examples to try to help people understand these techniques.
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Thursday, January 19, 2017
State of the Global Stock, Financial and Commodity Markets Report 2017 / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2017
Greetings,
Major markets around the world -- stocks, bonds, currencies and more -- are poised for major moves in 2017, and our friends at Elliott Wave International have created a new report to get you ready for them.
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Tuesday, January 17, 2017
Stock Market Uptrend on Borrowed Time / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2017
Current Position of the Market
SPX Long-term trend: If the market strength persists, the long-term trend may need to be re-evaluated.
SPX Intermediate trend: SPX intermediate P&F count to 2300 is still possible before a reversal occurs.
Analysis of the short-term trend is done on a daily-basis with the help of hourly charts. It is an important adjunct to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which discuss longer market trends.
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Tuesday, January 17, 2017
US Stock Market Update as the Trump Inauguration Approaches / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2017
Technical analyst Clive Maund forecasts a stock market "swoon" in light of the impending inauguration of Donald Trump.
The election of Donald Trump sparked a rally in the broad stock market, which has continued up to the present. According to the laws of reverse (inverse) logic that rule the markets, his inauguration as President is likely to trigger a swoon, and as we will shortly see, there are other compelling technical reasons for the market to drop back soon. It is worth noting that selling might start kicking in before the inauguration.
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Tuesday, January 17, 2017
Stock Market Inauguration Day Selling? / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2017
Last time I wrote, I discussed the possibility of a Friday the 13th sell-off. Did I really believe it would happen? Actually, the odds were better for a January 20th sell-off based on the planets and dragonfly candle stick pattern we saw on 1/12 than the 13th.
What I was pointing out was the 10 week cycle low pattern ( 6 or 7 TD's from 50 TD's) and daily Bollinger Band squeeze alone. Now we have Mars Sq. Saturn 1/19 and the Sun/Jupiter lines crossing on 1/18. On 1/23 we have Mercury sextiling Neptune. That day should be very positive!
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Sunday, January 15, 2017
Cycles Call for Stock Market High this Week / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2017
A Middle Section forecast from the Basic Cycle (chart) points to a high on Monday and Lindsay’s 222-day interval points to a change in trend this week – but no confirming Middle Section forecast is found from the Multiple Cycle. This is not expected to be a significant high.
Cycles, however, may be the missing link. A two month cycle high is due near 1/20/17. A monthly cycle high is due this Tuesday and a six month cycle high is due in late January.
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Sunday, January 15, 2017
Is A Stock Market Correction Looming? / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2017
All stock market indexes in the U.S. reached all-time highs in the last couple of weeks. It is interesting to observe how diverse opinions have become. Stock forecasters are now even more bullish, while bears are more convinced that a stock market crash is around the corner.
According to MarketWatch, Brian Belski, chief investment strategist at BMO Capital Markets, confirmed the above viewpoint. He says his clients believe”the stock market is set for a meaningful correction.” CNBC mentioned a leading market strategist who suggests a stock market correction is near because the Trump rally is fading.
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Saturday, January 14, 2017
Stock Market Patterns & Cycles Pointing to SPX 2300 by Month End / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2017
Since I am a "pattern geek," what is the Emini S&P 500 pattern whispering to us now? That all of the action off of the new all-time high at 2278.25 established on December 13 -- exactly one month ago -- is taking the form of a Bullish Coil Formation, which the vast majority of the time represents a digestion period prior to continuation in the direction of the underlying trend (up).
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Saturday, January 14, 2017
SPX Stocks Bull Market Update / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2017
The market started the week at SPX 2177. After a quiet session Monday the market inched up to SPX 2279 by Tuesday. Then Wednesday and Thursday the SPX declined to 2254. After that low the market rallied back to SPX 2279 on Friday and ended the week at 2275. For the week the SPX/DOW lost 0.25%, and the NDX/NAZ gained 1.0%. Economic reports for the week were positive. On the downtick: import prices, consumer sentiment, Q4 GDP est., plus weekly jobless claims rose. On the uptick: consumer credit, business/wholesale inventories, export prices, the PPI, retail sales, and the WLEI. Next week’s economic highlights include: industrial production, the FED’s beige book, and the NY/Philly FED.
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Friday, January 13, 2017
What Can Stock Market Tell You About Politics? / Stock-Markets / European Stock Markets
Dear reader,
Our friends at Elliott Wave International have just posted a new article, "What Can Stock Market Tell You About Politics?"
The stock market and politics are indeed connected -- but probably not in the way you think.
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Friday, January 13, 2017
SPX May Have Completed Wave 2 / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2017
It appears as if the SPX has made an impulse from its top. This is very tight, but a decline beneath 2270 would give us some comfort with that call. This appears to be a repeat of where we were last Friday with a potential aggressive short entry. Some Elliotticians look for this type of entry, since it also puts a limit on losses when wrong.
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Friday, January 13, 2017
Will Stocks Bull Market Continue to Charge or is it Time to Sell the News / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016
For of all sad words of tongue or pen, the saddest are these: "It might have been!" ~ John Greenleaf Whittier
For a long time, our theme was to view all sharp pullbacks through a bullish lens as the trend based on our trend indicator was trading firmly in bullish territory. Secondly, one critical psychological component was in our favour too - the masses were either bearish or they cursed this market from the sidelines (neutral camp); hence the slogan the most hated bull market in history. We must deter for a second by stating that a mild or brutal correction comes down to what level you embraced this market. If you embraced this Stock Market Bull in the early stages from 2009-2011, then a mild correction would seem brutal or back breaking in comparison to someone who just jumped into the market. A 15-20% correction would knock the socks out of them, but for you, it would appear to be nothing but a blip; this is why we have consistently stated that the best time to open long positions when the masses are in a state of despair.
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Friday, January 13, 2017
Is trading stocks and shares just as luck-based as roulette? / Stock-Markets / Gambling
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Friday, January 13, 2017
Stock Market Unlucky Friday the 13th? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016
The stock market is nearing the ten week cycle low from November 4th, 2016. The daily Bollinger bands are tightly squeezed together suggesting a break-out one way or the other (an expansion of volatility). The SPX broke the uptrend line today only to close back above the line. Normally, this is a sign of strength, but the OBV did not confirm the recent highs suggesting the smart money has already moved away from the market. I would call this a sign of weakness.
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Friday, January 13, 2017
Biggest Challenge of 2017 Directly Ahead for Gold, Stocks / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2017
If you thought the pace of the head-spinning political events of the last two months couldn't get any faster, think again. One of the most critical decisions of President-Elect Trump's reign will soon be decided. The final verdict will have a direct impact on the direction of stocks, gold, and the economy in the months to come.
The decision in question is the Congressional challenge being made against the Affordable Care Act (ACA), also known as Obamacare. Specifically, the requirement that individual Americans carry health insurance or else pay a stiff financial penalty is being challenged. Earlier this week, Trump directed the Republican-led Congress to begin efforts at repealing and replacing the health care law "very quickly."
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Thursday, January 12, 2017
SPX has Fallen Beneath the Trendline / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2017
SPX has declined beneath the trendline, putting it on an “aggressive sell.” A confirmed sell may be had beneath the 2-hour mid-Cycle support at 2247.13 and a breakout above the 50-day Moving Average on the VIX.
ZeroHedge comments, “Despite the latest Small Business Optimism explosion of confidence (in December), the most up-to-date surveys of US consumer confidence appear to be crumbling after the 'Trump Bump'...
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Thursday, January 12, 2017
Massive VIX Stock Market Warning for all Traders / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016
My analysis of the recent VIX action is clearly warning of a potentially massive price volatility increase in the US and global markets. Many traders use and trade the VIX as a measurement of volatility. The VIX is a measurement of the expected market volatility over the next 30 days. As the VIX rises, traders expect larger and more volatile price swings. As the VIX declines, traders expect smaller and more narrow price swings.
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Thursday, January 12, 2017
USD in Decline. SPX and TNX May Follow / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2017
The USD is in decline, challenging its 50-day Moving Average at 10.99 by declining to 100.70 this morning. The USD has a high correlation to equities and an inverse correlation to treasuries and gold.
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Thursday, January 12, 2017
Stock Market Drops After Trumps Biotech Pricing Comments, Impressive Come Back / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2017
The stock market had a very volatile day today as the indices went up in the morning, down in the afternoon on news that Trump is going to make the biotech companies accountable for pricing, rallied back up, came back down to retest, held, and then put on a very impressive afternoon rally that took the indices back into the plus column, to close up on the day.
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