Analysis Topic: Stock & Financial Markets
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Wednesday, October 14, 2020
Do Low Interest Rates Mean Higher Stocks? Not so Fast… / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: EWI
"Rates Down, Stocks Up"? Myth ... Busted!
Let's address widespread assumptions about interest rates and the stock market
There's a widespread belief that rising interest rates are bad for stocks and a lower interest rate trend is good for stocks.
The reasoning behind that belief is that bonds compete with stocks for investment funds. Hence, the higher the yield investors can get from bonds, the less attractive stocks become and vice-versa.
This assumption sounds logical, but in reality, stock market investors do not take their cue from rising or falling yields (or interest rates).
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Tuesday, October 13, 2020
Stock Market Short-term Top Expected / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: Andre_Gratian
Current Position of the Market
SPX Long-term trend: For now, the best guesstimate is that we are still in the bull market which started in 2009. Where we go from here and how far will be gauged after the September-October correction.
SPX Intermediate trend: Intermediate correction nearly over?
Analysis of the short-term trend is done daily with the help of hourly charts. It is an important adjunct to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which discuss longer market trends.
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Monday, October 12, 2020
Fear Grips Stock Market Short-Sellers -- What to Make of It / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: EWI
"This is easily the lowest wager against rising S&P rises" in the history of the data
As you may know, short-selling a stock means that a speculator is betting that the price will go down.
This is a lot riskier than taking a "long" position in a stock -- or, betting that the price will go up.
The reason why is that the most a speculator can lose by going long is 100% of his investment -- say, if a company goes out of business. However, the losses a short-seller can suffer is potentially unlimited, in other words, short-sellers can lose way more than their initial investment.
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Friday, October 09, 2020
Q4 Market Forecast: How to Invest in a World Awash in Debt / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2020
By: The_Gold_Report
In a world buffeted by political and social "noise," sector expert Michael Ballanger outlines his strategy for maximizing the worth of his portfolio. Before I wade into my Q4 strategy analysis, I have to tell you that prior to last Tuesday's "debate," I was leaning toward a "neutral" investment strategy largely based upon the 2016 outcome where heavily favored Hillary Clinton was upset by the Trump Train at the last hour, and in direct opposition to what every poll was predicting. I have a theory about the 2016 election and just exactly why the pollsters got it so completely wrong. I will explain.
I majored in marketing and finance from 1976's ninth-ranked undergraduate business school in the United States, Saint Louis University, a Jesuit institution of immense reputation and stature. In the marketing courses, they taught us that surveys are only relevant when they have a representative sample size. If you are asking a group of Canadians their opinion of Budweiser beer, you will get a skewed result. If you ask a group of Japanese whether they like "fish and chips," you will get a skewed result. If, in October 2016, you could not find a group of Americans living in the Ozarks or the Louisiana bayou or the Montana wilderness, you would never have obtained a representative sample of the pulse of the 2016 election. And that was where the pollsters went wonky. They chose to speak to metrosexual millennials with the colored glasses and Starbucks lattes rather than the guy in the F150 with the Confederate flag draped in the back window and two shotguns in the rack.
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Thursday, October 08, 2020
How Soon Will We See Stock Market SPX 4000? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: Avi_Gilburt
For those of you that follow me closely, you would know that I announced my desire for the market to strike the 2200SPX region back in late 2017. That was my ideal target to be struck before the market began a rally which I expected would exceed the 4000SPX region. I again reiterated this potential in early January of 2020:
“if the market is unable to maintain that support (3100SPX) within this pullback, it will again raise the probabilities of seeing the 2200SPX region before we see the 4000 region.
For now, the market has drawn its lines in the sand, and is providing us rather clear guideposts for 2020. As I said last year, the action in the first quarter of 2020 will set the tone for the rest of the year.” (January 26, 2020)
Thursday, October 08, 2020
Stock Market Spy ETF Testing March Price Peak – What Do the Charts Say? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: Chris_Vermeulen
RESEARCH HIGHLIGHTS:
- The SPY has been trading below its previous peak resistance level from March for more than two weeks and has begun to retest this level.
- If the SPY can clear this level on moderately strong volume, we believe the US stock market may enter another “melt-up” phase.
- If not, then we may see more of a sideways/melt-down phase headed into the US Presidential Elections.
The SPY, SPDR S&P 500 ETF, has been trading below the $339.50, previous peak resistance level, for more than two weeks recently and has begun to retest this level. I believe these levels are critical in determining the future trending capacity of the SPY and the US stock market. If the SPY can clear this level on moderately strong volume, we believe the US stock market may enter another “melt-up” phase. If not, then we may see more of a sideways/melt-down phase headed into the US Presidential Elections.
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Thursday, October 08, 2020
Long Term Cycles Suggest Stock Price Reversion Pending & Gold Price About To Explode High / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2020
By: Chris_Vermeulen
RESEARCH HIGHLIGHTS:
- In the early 1900s, multiple events prompted a rising commodity price level and a decline in the Stocks to Commodities ratio. We expect commodities may begin to appreciate and where stock price levels may stall or decline.
- We also believe we are currently nearing the end of a rising cycle in both Stocks to Commodities and S&P500 to Earnings ratios, suggesting a downward/sideways trend in the US stock market will continue while commodities attempt to form a longer-term momentum base.
- The current 100-year Gold cycle suggests a Recovery phase is nearly complete and we should expect an Appreciation phase to begin within 2 years (or less). Historically, the Appreciation phase prompts a 200% to 300%+ rally in Gold prices.
My research team and I have been pouring over the long-term data related to the current global markets and central bank efforts to support the global economy in the midst of the COVID-19 pandemic… and we have some keen insights I would like to share with you. This research article highlights historical chart phases and trends and shows you how important it is to pay attention to cycles and Super-Cycle events as they continue to trend.
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Monday, October 05, 2020
Trump’s Covid Infection, Bailout Negotiations Raise Market Uncertainties / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2020
By: MoneyMetals
Precious metals markets are advancing this week as a massive new stimulus bill makes its way through Congress.
On Thursday evening the House of Representatives passed a $2.2 trillion coronavirus relief bill on a party line vote.
It’s a big deal whenever Congress commits to spending that kind of cash, especially when it’s money that has to be borrowed into existence. These days, though, it’s not that unusual for Washington to dole out trillions of dollars at a time.
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Monday, October 05, 2020
Monitoring the SPX Rally / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: Submissions
I trade for myself and my members. The people who use the service know what to expect, but from new members I do get some questions about how often I trade, what kind of monthly returns do I expect, etc. Normal questions to ask, but they are also the wrong questions as well. Many of you have been conditioned to think this way- just as some of you may think that indicators are necessary for trading. Feeling the necessity to trade is not good for your performance, period. Instead of calling me a professional trader, I could just as easily be called a professional waiter. I go through what may seem like long periods of time of doing nothing, but then may place more trades in 2 weeks than I did the prior month. My customers benefit from this patience- but they have to get over the idea that something has to always be ‘happening’, or that you need X amount per day/week/month, etc. The performance will take care of itself if you do things the right way, which leads to the current form of stasis in the SPX.
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Saturday, October 03, 2020
Stock Market Massive Dark Cloud Cover Pattern Is Above Critical Support – Will It Hold? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: Chris_Vermeulen
RESEARCH HIGHLIGHTS:
- A Dark Cloud Cover pattern is a Japanese Candlestick Pattern that is typically associated with major top setups.
- Critical Support on the SPY highlighted by multiple technical analysis strategies suggests 335~335.25 is acting as a major support level.
- If price stays below the $339.95 level, then we interpret the trend as being Bearish. If price moves above the $343.55 level, it is Bullish.
Critical Support on the SPY (SPDR S&P500 ETF) highlighted by multiple technical analysis strategies suggests 335~335.25 is acting as a major support level. The rally in the markets that started late Sunday and carried forward into early trading on Monday, September 28, 2020, suggests the market is attempting to rally above this support level to establish a potential momentum base. My advanced price modeling systems and Fibonacci Price Amplitude Arcs (originating from the 2009 bottom) have clearly identified this area as a critical resistance/support zone.
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Saturday, October 03, 2020
Monetary and Economic Financial Reset / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2020
By: Raymond_Matison
Difficult to contemplate or understand concepts in monetary theory, economics, or the stock market are often described by comparing or referring to natural events observable in our universe. In this article we use three physical phenomena to describe imminent economic transitions: in the creation and issuance of fiat money, the future implosion of our present debt based money, electronic currency applications circumventing banks, new distributed ledger means of conducting business, and the possibility of true global human emancipation.
Ray Kurzweil in his masterpiece book “The Singularity is Near” published in 2005 answers the question as to what is a Singularity. “It is a future period during which the pace of the technological change will be so rapid, its impact so deep that human life will be irreversibly transformed. Although neither utopian nor dystopian, this epoch will transform the concepts that we rely on to give meaning to our lives, from our business models to the cycle of human life, including death itself.” Mr. Kurzweil was describing a period in the near future when computer computational and learning power exceeds that of the human brain. A singularity can also be seen as a discontinuity in a system where after reaching an inflection point the prior laws or characteristics of that system no longer apply. Today, there are several global converging singularities which will irreversibly transform our society and human life, several of which we will address here.
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Thursday, October 01, 2020
The Prospects of the Rocky S&P 500 Stock Market Recovery / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: Paul_Rejczak
Quite an eventful period since the last Stock Trading Alert on Sep 11 – stocks rose both on Sep 14 and 15, validating the short-term bullish outlook presented in the said Alert. Next, the S&P 500 made two downswings before rebounding from the 3200 level proximity on Sep 24. Friday's session brought us a daily upswing, and so did Monday. Where does yesterday's stumble fit in?
Volatility has been moving generally lower after making a lower high days ago. Technology plunged but didn't make a new low on Thursday. Otherwise, there have been few sectoral bright spots, with financials and energy still looking precarious. On the bright side, consumer discretionaries, utilities and consumer staples (the latter two are defensives) have held up reasonably well – better than healthcare.
But what moved the markets when it comes to headlines? Political uncertainties remain, the first presidential debate is over, and there is still no stimulus bill, while corona is getting worse overseas. New lockdowns are hanging in the air, with the U.K. and Israel leading the way. Then, the Fed hasn't done all that much lately, leaving the credit markets relatively unfazed. Continuing claims are trending lower only painfully slowly, and U.S. tensions with China haven't seen a turnaround.
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Thursday, October 01, 2020
Global Stock Markets: Keep Your Eye on This Remarkable "Divergence" / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: EWI
Incredibly, the Stoxx 600 is lower today than it was in March 2000
As you probably know, a "divergence" occurs when one financial market behaves differently from a related financial market.
Such occurrences often portend trend changes, albeit, divergences may stretch out for months before a trend change occurs.
Remarkably, one global divergence has been unfolding for more than 20 years!
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Tuesday, September 29, 2020
Stock Market Bears Fumbled, Let's See Whether Bulls Can Score / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: Ricky_Wen
Last week was mostly a downtrend week from Monday-Thursday with lower highs and lower lows. The bears needed to close Friday at the lows or near the lows in order to retain momentum heading into this week. But Friday morning, the lower lows opportunity was immediately squashed with a V-shape reversal back into the 3337, and then the rest of the day was spent grinding higher because short-term bears were trapped, so the opposing side was running into the 3268/3285 next key levels.
The main takeaway heading into this week is whether 3330-3350 key resistance region on the Emini S&P 500 (ES) can formulate the next daily lower highs, or whether the temporary bottom from last week is turning into more of a concrete bottom for the bigger picture. This is the neutral ground territory given the key battleground being established with the current backtest into the 3330s trending daily 20EMA resistance alongside 38.2% fib retracement and the prior (SHTF) shit hits the fan level of 3350.
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Tuesday, September 29, 2020
Stock Market Short-term Reversal / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: Andre_Gratian
Current Position of the Market
SPX Long-term trend: For now, the best guesstimate is that we are still in the bull market which started in 2009. Where we go from here and how far will be gauged after the September-October correction.
SPX Intermediate trend: Potential intermediate correction in progress until mid to late-October.
Analysis of the short-term trend is done daily with the help of hourly charts. It is an important adjunct to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which discuss longer market trends.
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Monday, September 28, 2020
Is The Stock Market Dow Transportation Index Setting up a Topping Pattern? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: Chris_Vermeulen
RESEARCH HIGHLIGHTS:
- The Transportation Index, has been unusually aligned with the S&P 500 over the past 8+ months.
- Classic Japanese Candlestick top/sell reversal “Three Rivers Evening Star topping pattern” setting up.
- We may see a much bigger downside price move where price attempts to find support near 9,800 or 9,200.
The Transportation Index, which typically leads the US stock market by 2 to 4+months, has been unusually aligned with the S&P 500 over the past 8+ months. Recently, though, the Transportation Index has rallied up to recent new all-time highs (over the past 9+ months) and has rotated lower – below resistance near 11,440 (the MAGENTA LINE on the first chart). Our researchers are warning us that any continued breakdown below this level could prompt a bigger downside market move.
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Sunday, September 27, 2020
Will Next SPX Cycle Be Directional Opposite Of March-September? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: Mike_Paulenoff
Typically exhibiting a 100 to 110 trading day cycle from low to low, the S&P 500's cycle low on March 23 was actually 117 days after the prior cycle bottom in October 2019.
The 117-day cycle that hit its low on March 23 initiated a new cycle that -- owing to massive Federal Reserve liquidity injection -- climbed relentlessly for 114 days into the September 2 all-time high at 3588.11.
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Friday, September 25, 2020
A Look at the Perilous Psychology of Financial Market Bubbles / Stock-Markets / Liquidity Bubble
By: EWI
Investors acknowledge a market bubble but optimism prevents them from seeking financial safety
The months before the 2000 and 2007 stock market peaks saw a measurable rise in news stories that used the phrase "financial bubble."
But instead of selling, many investors kept right on buying.
The logic went something like this: "This bubble could burst one day -- but not just yet."
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Thursday, September 24, 2020
Key Time For Stock Markets: Bears Step Up or V-Shaped Bounce / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: Ricky_Wen
Tuesday’s session played out as an inside/range day per expectations given Monday’s temporary bottom context. Essentially, price action formed an intraday double top after the RTH open and then bottomed out by 11AM in order to grind up towards 3300 on the Emini S&P 500 (ES) for the rest of the time. The overall range was 3309.5-3256.50 including overnight globex hours.
The main takeaway remains the same as short-term trend on the daily chart remains bearish and this is still treated as a deadcat bounce until further evidence. Today is an important day for bears to turn things around given the context and where price action is hovering just below some key resistance levels such as 3326/3350. Make or break sort of playbook as we’ll be stalking for a southbound train ride soon unless proven otherwise.
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Wednesday, September 23, 2020
Global Stock Markets Break Hard To The Downside – Watch Support Levels / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: Chris_Vermeulen
RESEARCH HIGHLIGHTS:
- New reports of widespread financial corruption likely triggered the current sell-off.
- Watch out for market support levels to see if this is a short-term correction or the start of a downtrend.
- Support for the DOW is just above 26,000.
- Support for the SP500 is around 3,100.
US and global markets were already under pressure over the past few weeks related to COVID-19 issues and global economic expectations. The technology sector had driven valuations to levels not seen since the DOT COM bubble near the end of August and many of the US Indexes has reached or breached all-time highs again. My research team and I warned followers to “stay cautious” throughout much of the price rally as our proprietary price modeling systems suggests the rally was isolated and not organic. The US Fed has spewed capital into the markets and speculative traders piled into the “excess phase” of the market to drive price levels higher. Take a moment to review these recent research posts to learn more:
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