Analysis Topic: Stock & Financial Markets
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Monday, July 27, 2020
Stocks Disconnect from Economy, Gold Responds / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: The_Gold_Report
Given the current uncertainties and recent market moves, money manager Adrian Day offers some thoughts on the macroeconomic environment.
Global stock markets zooming ahead amid historic unemployment and economic contraction is surreal. Half of the U.S. has been locked down, with economies virtually shut, a second virus wave appears underway and yet the stock market is almost back to February's all-time highs.
And this is not only in the U.S.; stock markets have rallied strongly around the world. We know that central bank money creation is the primary cause, but this dichotomy cannot continue indefinitely, at least without a meaningful correction. Meanwhile, gold—for sounder reasons than stocks—has outperformed and, notwithstanding anticipated volatility, will, we think, continue to do so.
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Sunday, July 26, 2020
This Stock Market Indicator Reaches "Lowest Level in Nearly 20 Years" / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: EWI
Here's what happened "the last time the 10-day put/call ratio made a lower extreme"
After a big trend reversal, it's not unusual for the correction to retrace much of the initial sell-off or rally.
Thus, many investors are fooled into believing that the old trend has resumed.
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Sunday, July 26, 2020
Stock Market Slow Grind Higher Above the Early June Stock Highs / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: Paul_Rejczak
The S&P 500 upswing extended gains, yet retreated before yesterday's closing bell. To a certain degree, the accompanying bullish signals lost their luster too. The air is getting thinner as stock prices cut into the late-Feb bearish gap. Has this been the turning point in the great bull run, or just a modest preview of more fierce battles to be fought?
I'm definitely leaning towards the latter possibility. Far from having thrown cold water on the bull run, it's a gentle test of the bulls' resolve. In today's analysis, I'll lay out quite a few good reasons why, and also discuss the signs pointing towards caution.
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Saturday, July 25, 2020
FREE Access to Premium Market Forecasts by Elliott Wave International / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2020
By: EWI
Hi Reader,
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But who's right? Everyone has an angle.
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Friday, July 24, 2020
The Prospects of S&P 500 Above the Early June Highs / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: Paul_Rejczak
The announced S&P 500 upswing is underway, and the early June highs have been overcome on a closing basis. Will the regular trading's final hour sprint carry over into today's session? Are the bulls as strong as the one-sided result of Monday's trading suggests?
That's not a foregone conclusion, because we've seen quite a shift from Friday's sectoral dynamics. In today's analysis, I'll dive into the internals and lay out the case why the bulls still enjoy the benefit of the doubt, regardless of the persisting bearish sentiment and double top talk.
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Thursday, July 23, 2020
US Stock Market Stalls Near A Double Peak / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: Chris_Vermeulen
The US stock market stalled early this week as earnings started to hit. A number of news and other items are pending with earnings just starting to roll in. There have been some big numbers posted from JP Morgan and Goldman Sachs. Yet, the markets have reacted rather muted to these blowout revenues.
We believe this is a technical “Double Top” set up in the making. The NASDAQ has been much weaker than the S&P and the Dow Industrials. We believe the US stock market is reacting to the reality of earnings and forward guidance after the recent rally in price levels over the past 9+ weeks. If we are correct and this Double-Top pushes price levels lower, then this technical resistance level may become the price ceiling headed into Q3 and Q4 2020.
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Wednesday, July 22, 2020
This Stock Market Stinks - But Not Why You May Think / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: Avi_Gilburt
I have been on vacation this last week, and when I had some downtime and the family was asleep, one of the activities in which I engaged was to peruse the articles written over the last week on the market. (Yea, I know... call me a nerd if you like). And, during my reading, I came to the realization that there is certainly a lot of manure being flung around of late.
Ultimately, I am just shocked that there are so many perspectives being presented as support for a bearish or bullish position that make it so clear that the author is not burdened by the facts.
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Tuesday, July 21, 2020
Machine Intelligence Quantum AI Stocks Mega-Trend Forecast 2020 to 2035! / Stock-Markets / AI
By: Nadeem_Walayat
This is the third and final article in my 3 part series of analysis that concludes in a detailed 15 year stock market trend forecast for AI stocks, including a stand alone forecast for Alphabet (Google) into 2027.
Part 1 The AI Stocks Mega-trend - Moores Law is NOT Dead!
Part 2 Tech Stocks Trending Towards the Quantum AI EXPLOSION!
However the whole of this extensive analysis was first made available to Patrons who support my work - Machine Intelligence Quantum AI Stocks Mega-Trend Forecast 2020 to 2035!.
- Why Investors Should Buy Deviations against the Bull Market Highs
- The AI Mega-trend - Moores Law is NOT Dead!
- QUANTUM COMPUTERS
- The Quantum AI EXPLOSION!
- Capitalising on the AI Mega-trend
- AI Stocks Mega-trend
- Formulating a AI Stocks Mega Trend Forecast
- AI Stocks Mega-tend 15 Year Trend Forecast Conclusion
- Dow Quick Technical Take
- Getting Started with Machine Learning
- Black Lives Matter Protests To trigger 2nd Covid-19 Wave?
Monday, July 20, 2020
Stock Market Time for Caution? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: Andre_Gratian
Current Position of the Market
SPX Long-term trend: For now, the best guesstimate is that we are still in the bull market which started in 2009.
SPX Intermediate trend: We should be approaching an important high, with confirmation coming over the next few days.
Analysis of the short-term trend is done daily with the help of hourly charts. It is an important adjunct to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which discuss longer market trends.
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Sunday, July 19, 2020
Stock Market Fantasy Finance: Follow the Money / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: The_Gold_Report
Sector expert Michael Ballanger takes a look at the latest moves in the financial and precious metals markets, and updates his investment strategy moving into late summer.
I've only just returned from the majesty of Georgian Bay, where the first fishing derby of the season had me summarily trounced by my female partner 12 to 5, with most of her catches in the 1- to 2-pound category and mine barely larger than the lure that attracted them.
Adding to this humiliation was that, despite that I have harangued incessantly about the urgency of "setting the hook" once you get a strike, I lost four 1-pound-plus bass within three feet of the dinghy by failing to properly execute that about which I constantly lecture.
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Sunday, July 19, 2020
Did the Stock Market Bubble Just Pop? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: Doug_Wakefield
It has been 18 months since I closed Best Minds Inc. Today I am teaching math. I love math because even when opinions appear totally wrong, math is still based on proofs.
So let’s prove that we are in a massive financial bubble that today, may have finally popped, even with all the “help” from central planners of market manipulation.
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Sunday, July 19, 2020
Quick Souring of the S&P 500 Stock Market Mood / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: Paul_Rejczak
We got that extension of Friday's rally on Monday, as I called for. Vaccine hype news. Good for bulls with tight exit orders – I managed to take a 55-points profit off the table. But big tech (think Microsoft, Amazon) suffered with talk of its bubble rising, U.S. – China tensions increased, and California sweepingly rolled back its reopening.
Spooky stuff for stocks, and they tanked. The brightening outlook I discussed after Friday's session, didn't last all that long. But is the selling over now, or we better brace for some more?
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Friday, July 17, 2020
The Bizarre Mathematics Of How Negative Interest Rates Create Stratospheric Profits / Stock-Markets / Quantitative Easing
By: Dan_Amerman
There is an increasingly good chance that the United States could end up following Europe and Japan, and that the Federal Reserve could use its vast powers of monetary creation to force a move to negative interest rates.
If that deeply unnatural event happens, it will invert and distort the very foundations of investment pricing, in ways that are little understood by most investors today.
It will also - for a time - create an unnatural source of profits that most investors have no idea about, because it has never happened before in the United States (and is still in the early stages in the United Kingdom).
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Thursday, July 16, 2020
Dow Stock Market Crash Watch - Update / Stock-Markets / Stock Market Crash
By: readtheticker
Like 1929 the markets have bounced. This time it is on the back of the FED $6.5T money printing.
Previous Post: Dow 2020 Crash Watch
But can the FED blow $6T every time the market rolls down to test support.
Yes, maybe before the US 2020 elections the FED will do 'what it takes'. But post elections not so much, the year 2021 is a long way from the next election (presidential or congress) and defense of the markets may not be so supportive at $6T or $10T per market smash. The FED may hesitate, and that will be window for stocks to break lower.
The 36 month simple moving average (SMA) is a good indicator of the Dow Jones trend (36 months is three years). It has been a good indicator of Dow break outs over the last 100 years.
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Wednesday, July 15, 2020
Retail Stock Market Traders & Investors Squeezed to Buy High-Risk Assets Again / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Yes, we certainly live in interesting times. This, the last segment of our multi-part article on the current Q2 and Q3 2020 US and global economic expectations, as well as current data points, referencing very real ongoing concerns, we urge you to continue using common sense to help protect your assets and families from what we believe will be a very volatile end to 2020. If you missed the first two segments of this research article, please take a moment to review them before continuing.
On May 24th, 2020, we published this research article related to our super-cycle research. It is critical that you understand what is really happening in the world as we move through these major 21 to 85+ year super-cycles and apply that knowledge to the data we have presented in the first two segments of this research post. Within that article, we quoted Ray Dalio from a recent article published related to his cycle research.
Read full article... Read full article...“In brief, after the creation of a new set of rules establishes the new world order, there is typically a peaceful and prosperous period. As people get used to this they increasingly bet on the prosperity continuing, and they increasingly borrow money to do that, which eventually leads to a bubble. As prosperity increases the wealth gap grows. Eventually, the debt bubble bursts, which leads to the printing of money and credit and increased internal conflict, which leads to some sort of wealth redistribution revolution that can be peaceful or violent. Typically at that time late in the cycle, the leading empire that won the last economic and geopolitical war is less powerful relative to rival powers that prospered during the prosperous period, and with the bad economic conditions and the disagreements between powers, there is typically some kind of war. Out of this debt, economic, domestic, and world-order breakdowns that take the forms of revolutions and wars come new winners and losers. Then the winners get together to create the new domestic and world orders.”
Wednesday, July 15, 2020
SPX about to Challenge 8/08 High / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: Andre_Gratian
Current Position of the Market
SPX: Long-term trend – Having rallied well past a .618 retracement of the decline into March 2020, it is time to consider the possibility that the retracement was only an interruption of the bull market which originated in 2009.
Intermediate trend – Still in an uptrend since March
Analysis of the short-term trend is done daily with the help of hourly charts. It is an important adjunct to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which discusses the course of longer market trends.
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Monday, July 13, 2020
Stock Market Dow 30k before End of 2020? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Looking at the way the Dow has behaved to date in the wake of the the Great Corona Crash of 2020.
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Monday, July 13, 2020
Credit Market Investments Turned Into End-User Risk Again / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2020
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Continuing our research from Part I, into what to expect in Q2 and Q3 of 2020, we’ll start by discussing our Adaptive Dynamic Learning predictive modeling system and our belief that the US stock market is rallied beyond proper expectation levels. The Adaptive Dynamic Learning (ADL) modeling systems attempts to identify price and technical indicator DNA markers and attempts to map our these unique price setups. Then, it attempts to learn from the past DNA markers and apply that learned price behavior to future price DNA markers. In this manner, it learns from the past and applies that knowledge to the future.
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Sunday, July 12, 2020
Stop Believing The 'Economy' Is The Same As The Stock Market / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: Avi_Gilburt
There are so many fallacies perpetuated and regurgitated throughout the market, yet there is so little time to appropriately address them all.
Of late, almost all the “analysis” or comments you read or hear is based upon a superficial understanding of the market propagated through “common-speak.” And, that is exactly why they all seem to be so confused:
“The stock market is confusing a lot of people right now. It seems simple: news is bad, there's a pandemic for the first time in generations, people are dying, and the economy has taken a beating for the ages. Stocks should go down, right? But they're not. They've recovered so much of their March slide that they've produced the shortest bear market in history. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was in a bear market for just three days.”
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Saturday, July 11, 2020
The Big Short 2020 – World Pushes Credit/Investments Into Risk Again / Stock-Markets / Financial Crisis 2020
By: Chris_Vermeulen
One thing is very certain right now – we live in very interesting times. As the world rushes head-first into the 21st Century, it appears one of the most pressing issues before all of us is to navigate the risks and opportunities that continue to stack up ahead of us. Within the first 20 years of this century, the global markets have experienced many shifts and big price rotations. Emerging markets, Oil, Technology, Bio-Tech, Miners, Metals, Currencies, Cryptos – we can look at all of these on a longer-term basis and see a boom cycle and a moderate bust cycle event.
The current trends suggest global investors are pouring capital into the US technology stocks which is what is driving the NASDAQ to new all-time highs. We published this article in late June suggesting a parabolic top pattern may be setting up in the global markets – which may be very similar to the DOT COM peak in 1999~2000 explained here.
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