Sunday, August 05, 2018
Why China Lost the Trade War Before it Even Began - SSEC Stocks Index - Video / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Nadeem_Walayat
In this series of videos I will seek to conclude in a detailed trend forecast for stock stock market for the whole of the remainder of 2018. This analysis is based on my articles beign posted at the market oracle site. Furthermore the whole of this analysis was first made available Patrons who support my work. So to get immediate First Access to ALL of my analysis and trend forecasts then do consider becoming a Patron by supporting my work for as little as just $3 per month. https://www.patreon.com/Nadeem_Walayat.
Trumponomics in a nutshell can be summed up as a mish mash of policies built on tweets that has surprisingly so far delivered relative stock market strength for the broad US markets this year that has the Dow currently trading at 25,064 marginally up from at the start of the year opening level of 24,720 whilst standing up 7.5% a from its early April low of 23,300. So as the Dow chart illustrates the stock market has refused to FALL this year despite the chaos of the unfolding trade war that has been the focus of the mainstream press for 2018.
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Sunday, August 05, 2018
Dow Stock Market Elliott Wave Analysis / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Nadeem_Walayat
This is part 3 of my stock market in-depth analysis that concludes in a detailed trend forecast.
- Part 1 - Trumponomics Stock Market 2018 - The Manchurian President
- Part 2 - The Inflationary Exponential Stocks Bull Market
The whole of this analysis that includes my detailed trend forecast was first made available to Patrons who support my analysis. To get immediate First Access to ALL of my analysis and trend forecasts then do consider becoming a Patron by supporting my work for as little as just $3 per month. https://www.patreon.com/Nadeem_Walayat.
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Sunday, August 05, 2018
Iran's Rial Currency Is In A Death Spiral, Again / Currencies / Iran
By: Steve_H_Hanke
Iran’s rial plunged from 98,000 IRR/USD on Saturday to 112,000 IRR/USD on Sunday on Tehran’s Ferdowsi Street. That stunning 12.5% one-day plunge has pushed the rial into a classic death spiral. The last time the rial was in a grip of such a spiral was back in September 2012.
The chart below shows the downward roller coaster ride the rial has been on during the past six months, as well as this weekend’s free fall. As the chart indicates, the official IRR/USD rate is 44,030; whereas, the rate in the black market (read: free market) is 112,000. That widespread rate is now measured by a huge black-market premium of 154%. This means that those who are privileged and have access to the official exchange rate can turn handsome profits of 154% in the blink of an eye.
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Sunday, August 05, 2018
IMF Produces Another Bogus Venezuela Inflation Forecast / Economics / Inflation
By: Steve_H_Hanke
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has done it again. In an attempt to garner some press, the head of the IMF’s Western Hemisphere Department Alejandro Werner forecasted that Venezuela’s annual inflation rate will reach 1,000,000% by year’s end. By my calculations, this inflation forecast implies that the exchange rate will reach 923 million VEF/USD by December 2018. To put this into context, the exchange rate at the end of July was 3.3 million VEF/USD, and at the end of June it was 3.1 million VEF/USD.
Sunday, August 05, 2018
Gold & Silver Precious Metals Monthly Charts / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018
By: Jordan_Roy_Byrne
With the end of July I thought it was important to take a look at the monthly charts which carry more significance than weekly and daily charts. Visible trends on the monthly charts obviously carry greater weight than those on the weekly and daily charts. Monthly charts can also simplify and clarify sector relationships. While the broader trend for precious metals is lower, there are some slight differences as evidenced by the monthly charts.
Sunday, August 05, 2018
Time to Position for a Decade-Long Bull Market in Natural Resources / Commodities / Resources Investing
By: MoneyMetals
Mike Gleason: It is my privilege now to welcome in Samuel Pelaez, CIO and Portfolio Manager at Galileo Global Equity Advisors, a Canadian subsidiary of U.S. Global Investors. Sam manages Galileo's Growth and Income fund as well as the Technology and Blockchain fund and also follows the natural resource and gold mining space quite closely. And it's a real pleasure to have him on with us today.
Sam, thanks so much for the time and welcome.
Samuel Pelaez: Thanks, Mike. It's a great pleasure to join you. I think this is the first time.
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Saturday, August 04, 2018
Cracking Down on Immigration Impact on US Economy / Economics / Immigration
By: Harry_Dent
There was a great article in Bloomberg Opinion by Noah Smith.It starts off reminding us that we’re doing similar things now as we were in the late 1920s, before the 1929 crash and Great Depression.
During a major bubble, the Fed started tightening in 1928.
In 1930, Smoot-Hawley was passed. It raised import duties, which set off a trade war.
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Saturday, August 04, 2018
The Inflationary Exponential Stocks Bull Market / Stock-Markets / Stocks Bull Market
By: Nadeem_Walayat
This is part 2 of my stock market in-depth analysis that concludes in a detailed trend forecast. Part 1 (Trumponomics Stock Market 2018 - The Manchurian President). The whole of this analysis that includes my core analysis and detailed trend forecasts was first made available to Patrons who support my analysis. To get immediate access First Access to ALL of my analysis and trend forecasts then do consider becoming a Patron by supporting my work for as little as just $3 per month. https://www.patreon.com/Nadeem_Walayat.
This is a good time to remind my readers of the difference in perception of between bull and bear markets for they are not the same. The stock market does not exist in a trading range that oscillates between roughly equal bull and bear market price gyrations. The primary over riding trend is always INFLATIONARY which means Bear markets are CORRECTIONS.
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Saturday, August 04, 2018
Red States vs Blue States - Breaking Down Trump’s Trade Wars / Politics / US Politics
By: Harry_Dent
There’s ideology.And then there’s reality and outcomes.
Unfortunately, the trade war overtures in the name of fairer competition, disfavors jobs in the red states far more than in the blue ones.
In Thursday’s issue, I looked at how curbing immigration is likely to be a major factor tipping us into the next recession.
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Saturday, August 04, 2018
America Where to Live, Most Desirable Best US Cities / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Harry_Dent
There was an update to the rankings of the most desirable cities to live in the U.S. by U.S. News & World Report.
Colorado Springs sprung into first place for the first time. I’ve been there, and can understand why they picked the place.
It’s beautiful, at the foot of dramatic mountains (Pike’s Peak), close to the glorious Broadmoor Resort, and only one hour from one of the most attractive larger cities, Denver, which comes in at number 10 on the list.
Saturday, August 04, 2018
Breaking Down the US Budget Deficit / Interest-Rates / Government Spending
By: Rodney_Johnson
Second-quarter U.S. GDP jumped by an annualized 4.1%, putting a spring in the step of the Trump administration and the congressional leadership.And why not?
Those two groups are responsible for turbo-charging the U.S. economy through tax reform, which cut taxes by more than $1 trillion, putting a ton of cash in the hands of corporations and consumers.
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Friday, August 03, 2018
Gold Stocks’ Autumn Rally / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2018
By: Zeal_LLC
The gold miners’ stocks have suffered a psychologically-grating year so far. They’ve remained trapped in their vexing low-consolidation trading range, disheartening and driving away the great majority of traders. But that should soon change as this deeply-out-of-favor sector enters its strong season, which begins with a powerful autumn rally starting late summers. This year’s has exceptional upside potential from such a low base.
Seasonality is the tendency for prices to exhibit recurring patterns at certain times during the calendar year. While seasonality doesn’t drive price action, it quantifies annually-repeating behavior driven by sentiment, technicals, and fundamentals. We humans are creatures of habit and herd, which naturally colors our trading decisions. The calendar year’s passage affects the timing and intensity of buying and selling.
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Friday, August 03, 2018
The Changing Face of Payments: Online & Mobile Payments / Personal_Finance / Mobile Technology
By: Steve_Marks
Back in the day, it used to be the case that cash was the only mainstream way to pay for pretty much every transaction. When cheques and bank cards became popular, they were considered to be cutting-edge payment forms that were about to change the world. Now, both of these payment methods are becoming increasingly obsolete. This is evident in the UK as more people use online payment and baking methods. One popular example of this is e-tailer payment methods. Popular examples of these include Amazon’s Amazon Pay and Apple’s Apple Pay. Originally envisioned as an extension of both Apple and Amazon, both payment methods can now be used elsewhere. Meaning that traditional payment methods like debit and credit cards are being used less and less. Another reason for this is the growth of online shopping. In the UK it is estimated that over 70% of households use online shopping. This follows the trend of increased internet usage.
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Friday, August 03, 2018
Sheffield Residents Urged to Water Dyring Replacement Tree Saplings in Summer Heat / Local / Sheffield
By: Anika_Walayat
Sheffield City Council's tree felling programme that targets the felling of half (17,500) of Sheffield's street trees to be replaced with small saplings that typically are near 1/200th of the mass of the felled trees, where many of which have been planted at the wrong time of year and many more are now suffering during the summer heat wave having as few as 10% of the leaf cover they should have by now as they are NOT being watered adequately i.e. recommendations are for 20-30 litres of water per day when the actual watering is likely that amount per month (if that) resulting in a sorry state for Sheffield's streets of dying replacement trees as this video illustrates the difference between saplings which are being watered by residents and saplings which are being left for Sheffield City Council's contractor Amey to water and look after which given the state of a large number of replacement trees is just not proving sufficient.
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Friday, August 03, 2018
Payrolls Disappoint, But Stocks May Go Marginally Higher / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Anthony_Cherniawski
SPX futures are on edge, waiting for the monthly payrolls report from the BLS. Futures spiked between 6:00 am and 7:30 am, presumably to discourage the shorts before the payroll numbers. There still may be a small probe higher even if the payrolls underperform. The Cycle Top at 2839.76 appears to be the final resistance.
ZeroHedge reports, “World stocks traded mixed on Friday, with risk appetite dampened despite Apple crossing a $1 trillion market cap and boosting tech stocks around the globe, after Wilbur Ross warned there’s "more pain ahead" unless China changes its economic system adding to trade war tensions, pushing the Yuan as low as 6.91 after the lowest PBOC fixing since May 2017. And while there were no fireworks in Japanese bonds overnight for the first time in a week, this time it was Italian bonds that tumbled with 10Y BTP yields rising briefly above 3% ahead of a budget meeting between the country’s populist leaders and the finance minister. The MSCI All-Country World Index was down by 0.1% after the start of European trading, and set to break a four-week streak of gains.”
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Friday, August 03, 2018
Significance of Enrolling in a Digital Marketing Course / Companies / SME
By: Submissions
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Friday, August 03, 2018
Russell Small Caps Stock Index is Up 5 Months in a Row. Very Bullish for Stocks / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Troy_Bombardia
The Russell 2000 (small caps index) has now extended its winning streak from 4 months in a row to 5 months in a row.
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Friday, August 03, 2018
Apple Tops $1 Trillion Valuation with New Price High — What’s Next? / Companies / Apple
By: Mike_Paulenoff
Apple (AAPL) has kissed a new all-time high above 207, where the company is valued at $1 trillion. So far, the high, as seen on the chart linked to below, represents about a 1.9% overshoot of the upper channel boundary line of the February- August bullish price channel.
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Thursday, August 02, 2018
Are You Ready For Inflation? / Economics / Inflation
By: Graham_Summers
The market is sensing a major turn.
As I’ve noted before, the currency markets are the largest, most liquid markets on the planet. As such they sense changes first.
With that in mind, consider that the “inflation” currencies are showing a major turn in the $USD.
First and foremost, the Australian Dollar: $USD pair looks to have bottomed. We have a clear bullish falling wedge formation being broken to the upside. We should expect a retest of former support (red line) at the very least.
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Thursday, August 02, 2018
Bank of England Base Rate Increases to 0.75% / Interest-Rates / UK Interest Rates
By: MoneyFacts
The Bank of England’s decision to increase interest rates from 0.50% to 0.75% marks the first time the base rate has risen above 0.50% in almost 10 years. But what does this latest increase mean to the average person on the street?
Charlotte Nelson, Finance Expert at Moneyfacts.co.uk, said:
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