Friday, December 06, 2019
How Much Crude Oil Do You Unknowingly Eat? / Commodities / Environmental Issues
By: OilPrice_Com
You may think (or hope) that in your daily life you don’t need to worry about unknowingly eating or otherwise ingesting crude oil or any of its many, many petrochemical byproducts. But you would be wrong. And not just a little wrong--very, very wrong. Petroleum-based substances are in all kinds of innocuous-seeming things that we willingly put into our bodies. Even though petrochemicals are not technically (or really any other adverb you want to insert here) edible, we eat quite a lot of them.
Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, December 06, 2019
Climate Emergency vs Labour Tree Felling Councils Reality - Sheffield General Election 2019 / ElectionOracle / Climate Change
By: N_Walayat
Where in a climate emergency that demands both cutting back carbon production and increasing carbon capture. In which respect one of the best mechanisms to achieve this emergency objective are TREES!
However, devoid of commonsense, several years ago the Labour controlled Sheffield City council embarked on a plan to fells tens of thousands of Sheffield's largest trees, typically 200 times the volume of replacement saplings. Literally millions of tons of carbon have been unnecessarily released by the Labour Council felling Sheffield's biggest trees that soak up vehicle pollution and releasing oxygen into the streets, which is why they were planted in the first place typically over a 100 years ago to help clean up Sheffield's toxic air environment of that time which given the volume of traffic remains just as toxic now as it was then.
Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, December 06, 2019
Labour vs Tory Manifesto Voter Bribes Impact on UK General Election Forecast / ElectionOracle / General Election 2019
By: Nadeem_Walayat
If one looks back to 2017 then two things stick out where the Manifesto's of the two main parties were concerned.
1. Jeremy Corbyn promising to ramp up government spending by nearly £50 billion per year or about 2.8% of GDP to be funded by tax hikes of £50 billion on the top 5%! That included a "Robin Hood" tax on financial transactions. Where in reality Labour would have been lucky to get half the tax hike they were budgeting for and thus set to increase the deficit by £25 billion per year. Where Brexit is concerned, Labour had ruled out a No Deal Brexit.
2. Theresa May's "strong and stable" promised to get Brexit done but no new voter bribes, just to continue to move towards raising the personal tax allowance to £12,500. A manifesto full of weak pledges with the underlying aim of balancing the budget by 2020 that translated into more economic austerity, hoping that the voters were too stupid to notice that they are getting nothing in exchange for the Tories wanting an increased majority. Which included the disastrous social care policy for the elderly and what came to be known as the "Dementia Tax" that cost the Tories many seats.
Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, December 06, 2019
Gold Price Forecast – Has the Recovery Finished? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: Submissions
Gold prices pushed sharply higher on Tuesday but have stalled ever since. Has the recovery rally completed? I think it has.
Leave it to Trump to go and say something that causes the equity markets to print a two-day drop that wipes out more than a week of gains. But the tone in the markets might be changing.
The US president went from saying that the trade deal might get delayed until after the elections on Tuesday to saying that talks with China are going “very well” on Wednesday. His shift in tone carried through the markets with the S&P 500 recovering and posting on a bullish engulfing candle on a daily chart yesterday.
Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, December 06, 2019
Precious Metals Ratio Charts / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: Rambus_Chartology
I can remember there were times during the PM complex bull market before 2011 that sometimes the PM metals would rally but the PM stocks were very weak. Then there were times when the PM stock would rise while the PM metals moved very little. At the time of those occurrences it was bewildering as common sense suggested they should all move together and the stronger the metals moved so should the PM stocks. I don’t have a good answer for the bifurcation at times only that it can happen.
This first chart for tonight is the old ratio combo chart which has the Gold:XAU ratio on top with the XAU on the bottom. When the ratio is rising gold is outperforming the XAU. Going all the way back to 1996 you can see that gold outperformed the XAU in parabolic fashion until the top in January of 2016 which lasted about 20 years. When that 20 year parabolic arc gave way in early 2016 that broke the back of gold outperforming the XAU.
Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, December 06, 2019
What Fake UK Unemployment Statistics Predict for General Election Result 2019 / Economics / Unemployment
By: Nadeem_Walayat
It's the economy stupid! The party in government tends to lose elections to the opposition on the basis of where the economy stands at the time of the general election. So whilst Boris Johnson's "Get Brexit Done" headline grabbing mantra sounds like it could deliver the Tories enough votes to win. However, if the economy is on the slide then all slogans and promises will be ignored, much as was the case for Theresa May's 2017 all about getting Brexit done election campaign.
So the focus of this analysis is where the economy stands and it's direction of travel relative to where economy stood in the run up to the June 2017 General Election as one of the 9 key election forecasting lessons learned from the outcome of the 2017 general election.
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, December 05, 2019
What UK CPI, RPI and REAL INFLATION Predict for General Election Result 2019 / ElectionOracle / General Election 2019
By: Nadeem_Walayat
It's the economy stupid! The party in government tends to lose elections to the opposition on the basis of where the economy stands at the time of the general election. So whilst Boris Johnson's "Get Brexit Done" headline grabbing mantra sounds like it could deliver the Tories enough votes to win. However, if the economy is on the slide then all slogans and promises will be ignored, much as was the case for Theresa May's 2017 all about getting Brexit done election campaign.
So the focus of this analysis is where the economy stands and it's direction of travel relative to where economy stood in the run up to the June 2017 General Election as one of the 9 key election forecasting lessons learned from the outcome of the 2017 general election.
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, December 05, 2019
Supply Crunch Coming as Silver Miners Scale Back / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: MoneyMetals
Through the first half of 2019, silver significantly underperformed gold. Put another way, gold gained relative to silver – culminating in the gold:silver ratio registering a 27-year high of 95:1.
That market signal was received by the mining industry. Since there are few primary silver producers, and those that do mine silver also typically mine gold and some base metals, precious metals miners had an incentive to invest more into gold production and less into silver.
Precious metals analyst Adam Hamilton wrote in a recent commentary, “As silver wasted away in recent years, its bombed-out prices heavily impaired silver mines’ ability to generate operating cash flows and profits. The silver miners were forced to adapt and shifted their focus and capital into adding gold production rather than boosting silver output.”
Thursday, December 05, 2019
Manufacturing Goes Deeper Into Recession, Yet Gold Remains Muted. Why? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
The ISM Manufacturing index fell 0.2 point to a reading of 48.1 in November. However, gold struggles to find momentum. What is going on exactly?
U.S. Manufacturing Sector Slumps Further
The Institute for Supply Management announced that its index of national factory activity dropped from 48.3 in October to 48.1 last month. The number was below expectations and it also remained below the 50 threshold, indicating contraction – shrinking for the fourth straight month. In other words, the manufacturing sector is still in recession.
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, December 05, 2019
Gold Will Not Surpass Its 1980 Peak / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: Kelsey_Williams
When gold’s price reached $850 per ounce in January 1980, it seemed as if nothing would stop the runaway train that was headed straight for $1000 per ounce. But it was stopped, and began sliding downhill quickly.
By June 1982, two and one-half years later, gold’s price had declined by sixty-five percent. At close to $300 per ounce, the price of gold seemed farther away from the $1000 mark than ever before.
At $300 per ounce, the eventual low for gold of $250 was a short distance away. But that downside price did not come until seventeen years later, in late 1999. As far as $1000 gold is concerned, that did not occur until September 2009, almost thirty years after gold peaked at $850 in January 1980.
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, December 05, 2019
UK House Prices Most Accurate Predictor of UK General Elections - 2019 / ElectionOracle / General Election 2019
By: Nadeem_Walayat
In this series of videos in the countdown to polling day, December 12th conclude in a detailed seats forecast for the Torys, Labour, Lib Dems and SNP, analysis and forecasts based on 9 key lessons learned from the 2017 general election that I covered in an earlier video where as the opinion polls have consisnteyl been wrong for now 4 UK elections in a row and thus should be ignored whilst the actual most accurate preduictor of UK elections has consistently been my house prices based forecasts and average earnings growth. For this election the 9 key lessons learned resolve into 5 pieces of in-depth analysis that aim to accuratelty forecast the outcome of the December 12th Vote.
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, December 05, 2019
7 Year Cycles Can Be Powerful And Gold Just Started One / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Our research and predictive modeling systems have nailed Gold over the past 15+ months. We expected Gold to rally above $1750 before the end of this year, but the global trade wars and news cycles stalled the rally in Gold over the past 2 months. Now, it appears Gold is poised for another rally pushing much higher.
But wait, if you’re thinking I’m just another one of those traders who is always bullish on gold, just know I have been telling the truth about where gold was headed (lower) for years, but finally, the tide has changed!
Gold broke down from a bull market in 2012/2013 – nearly 7 years ago. Now, Gold has broken resistance near $1375 and is technically in a full-fledged Bull Market. The importance of this is the 7-year cycle and how the rotation in Gold, between the high near $1923 and the low near $1045 represent an $878 price range. The upside (expansion) rally in Gold may very well move in expanding Fibonacci price structures – just like it did in 2005 through 2012. If this is the case, then we may expect to see an ultimate peak price in Gold well above $3500.
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, December 05, 2019
Lib Dems Winning Election Leaflets War Against Labour - Sheffield Hallam 2019 / ElectionOracle / Sheffield
By: N_Walayat
The Lib Dems have declared war on Britain's letter boxes by stuffing them full with leaflets, many of which are a bit dodgy!
This is especially the case for those living in the Sheffield Hallam constituency where there is a battle between Labour and the Lib Dems that is likely to see Labour lose their seat to the Lib Dems after the disastrous term of Jared O' Mara. That follows the disaster that is the city council and it's anti climate change policy of felling thousands of Sheffield's street trees.
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, December 05, 2019
Do you like to venture out? Test yourself and see what we propose for you / Personal_Finance / Gambling
By: Submissions
On average an employed adult works, as his weekly total working hours, 160 hours per month and most of them do not know what to do for the remaining 136 hours, given that he also sleeps 8 hours per month. night.Many think it is because they do not have time or because they are not economically sustainable that they do not venture out of the comfort of their home to create unforgettable memories and memories. Will it be?
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, December 05, 2019
Great Ways To Make Money Over Time / Personal_Finance / Money Making
By: Submissions
Everybody wants to make more money. With today’s inflation rates and living expenses, you can’t expect to live comfortably without having to earn extra income on top of your monthly salary.Fortunately, the gig economy has paved the way for full-time professionals to acquire an additional income stream by completing tasks for other people. It’s the perfect setup for those who don’t want to let go of the stability that their day job provides them while they earn extra during their downtime.
Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, December 04, 2019
Calculating Your Personal Cost If Stock, Bond and House Prices Return To Average / InvestorEducation / Learning to Invest
By: Dan_Amerman
We currently have well above average prices for stocks, bonds and homes. This raises a simple question - what would happen to the average retirement account and to home equity for the average homeowner, if valuations were to return to what long term averages show us are normal valuations?
Using decades of valuation information on stocks, bonds and homes, this analysis develops numbers in each category that show how much of current national stock, bond and home prices represents average values, and how much is a premium above normal valuations.
Using those historical values and the illustration of an example homeowner and retirement account investor, it is demonstrated that the current premium is around 59% above long term average valuations. How the loss of such a premium could have life changing implications for tens of millions of homeowners and retirement account investors is reviewed.
Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, December 04, 2019
America’s “Full Employment” Hides a Dirty Secret / Economics / Employment
By: John_Mauldin
Should just being “employed” make people/workers happy?
On one level, any job is better than no job. But we also derive much of our identities and self-esteem from our work.
If you aren’t happy with it, you’re probably not happy generally.
Unhappy people can still vote and are often easy marks for shameless politicians to manipulate. Their spending patterns change, too.
So it ends up affecting everyone and everything.
Wednesday, December 04, 2019
Will Labour Government Plant More Tree's than Council's Like Sheffield Fell? / ElectionOracle / General Election 2019
By: N_Walayat
Labour's manifesto promise is to plant 2 billion trees by 2040 is clearly a figure plucked out of this air much like most of Labour's manifesto. Still if Labour managed to achieve even half that target that it would be an huge achievement. However there is a fly in the ointment and that is the behaviour of inept Labour councils across Britain such as Sheffield's who over the past few years have been on a TREE FELLING rampage, trees that have been felled in their thousands are typically equivalent in volume to about 200 saplings planted, many of which fail to survive.
Sheffield has seen virtually every tree lined street hit by chainsaw massacres.
Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, December 04, 2019
What the UK Economy GDP Growth Rate Predicts for General Election 2019 / ElectionOracle / UK Economy
By: Nadeem_Walayat
It's the economy stupid! coined by Bill Clinton's strategist James Carville in 1992. The party in government tends to lose elections to the opposition on the basis of where the economy stands at the time of the general election. So whilst Boris Johnson's "Get Brexit Done" headline grabbing mantra sounds like it could deliver the Tories enough votes to win. However, if the economy is on the slide then all slogans and promises will be ignored, much as was the case for Theresa May's 2017 all about getting Brexit done election campaign.
So the focus of this analysis is where the economy stands and it's direction of travel relative to where economy stood in the run up to the June 2017 General Election as one of the 9 key election forecasting lessons learned from the outcome of the 2017 general election.
Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, December 04, 2019
Gold, Silver and Stock Market Big Picture: Seat Belts Tightened / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2019
By: The_Gold_Report
Sector expert Michael Ballanger offers his latest insights into the markets and his investment strategy as 2019 winds down.
"Gold is money; everything else is credit." —J.P. Morgan
Dating back to the mid-80s, and usually around the end of November, I begin to formulate strategies and portfolios looking out to the upcoming New Year, taking into account technical, fundamental and geopolitical factors in an effort to avoid career-ending draw-downs while posting a respectable degree of performance.
Being a player in both the commodity and equity arenas, it is no surprise that over the past forty years of covering precious metals and stocks, the landscape has changed in a manner that defies the term "evolution." A better term to describe the metamorphosis in the credit and equity markets, particularly since 2009, would be the use of the term "deformation," as government-sponsored intervention has thrown a toxic curve ball at the analytical batter's box. The days where charts of the Dow Jones and five-year gross domestic product (GDP) growth could be coupled with few bank-generated reports on the economy to arrive at a bullish/bearish stance are gone forever, joining the dodo bird and human traders on the list of extinct species. Whereas the two primary drivers of market volatility used to be fear and greed, the only driver left today is policy, as in central bank usage of financial markets to govern final demand.
Read full article... Read full article...