Monday, September 25, 2023
Stock Market correction full steam ahead / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2023
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Dear Reader
It's your lucky day as you get access to my latest stock market brief that was sent out to patrons Monday 25th September at 3am UK time.
Stock Market correction full steam ahead as the S&P ticks below the August low of 4340, closing Friday at 4320 thus continuing to target sub 4200 by Mid October with my pin point high probability target of 4150 now some 170 points away vs the S&P 2023 high of 4610 290 point above, thus about 60% of the correction is complete which has translated into huge price drops in target stocks from their 2023 highs such as AMD down 28%, ASML -24%, Qualcom & TSMC -23% and so on and even greater price drops in the higher risk stocks such as Roblox -46%, with even greater blood baths in the housing stocks.
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Sunday, September 24, 2023
British Pound Trend Trajectory / Currencies / British Pound
By: Nadeem_Walayat
YES all currencies in free fall but for the time being at least the UK is showing relative strength against the dollar (dead cat bounce), it will eventually weaken once more to fresh lows. However as the above illustrates it is all smoke and mirrors, why I don't fuss too much over the fx rate that I buy US stocks at because at the end of the day CASH IS LOSING VALUE regardless of the currency it is denominated in! So it's a bit of a fools errand to wait for sterling to rise before buying US stocks as we have witnessed during the past 9 months.
Still to eek out that extra few percent it can be prove a useful short-term exercise to have a rough idea where sterling is going, one of the check boxes to tick off in our pursuit of maximising profits.
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Sunday, September 24, 2023
Dead Ends Ahead for Silver Price / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2023
By: P_Radomski_CFA
With the fundamental roadblocks adding up, silver confronts a bearish outlook at nearly every turn.
With the FOMC’s hawked-up SEP and Powell’s inflation focus upending several risk assets, rising real interest rates continue to weaken silver’s bull thesis. And with the Fed chief promising more of the same on Sep. 20, higher interest rates and/or a recession are both bullish for the USD Index. Powell said:
“The worst thing we can do is to fail to restore price stability, because the record is clear on that. If you don’t restore price stability, inflation comes back and... you can have a long period where the economy is just very uncertain, and it’ll affect growth. It... can be a miserable period to have inflation come constantly coming back and the Fed coming in and having to tighten again and again.”
Sunday, September 24, 2023
Feds Seek Huge Royalties from Gold Miners in New Crackdown / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2023
By: MoneyMetals
Fears of inflation remaining stubbornly high, and interest rates going higher, rattled financial markets this past week.
On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve left its benchmark funds rate unchanged as expected. However, Fed chairman Jerome Powell left the door open for another hike in the near future. He also suggested rates may need to stay higher for longer than previously expected.
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Friday, September 22, 2023
The Full Employment Lie / Economics / Economic Statistics
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Today's narrative is that the Fed needs to force unemployment higher to cause demand destruction to bring inflation under control. Only one problem is that just as CPI is a FAKE inflation measure so is the Unemployment rate. They have fiddled the stats to such an extent that today's 3.6% unemployment is more like 10% for your grandfathers unemployment as shadow stats once more illustrates, Just look at the spread between REAL unemployment and fake UNEMPLIE 25% vs 3.6%! Seriously they are taking the piss, treating the masses like idiots! Unfortunately the Econofools perpetuate this LIE across MSM, so there you have it US unemployment rate is a lot closer to 25% than 3.65%
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Friday, September 22, 2023
Gold, Mining Stocks Weather Fed Interest Rates Hike Cycle / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2023
By: Zeal_LLC
Fed hawkishness has been the rankling thorn in gold’s side for 18 months now. Since the Fed started this monster rate-hike cycle, every material gold and gold-stock selloff has been driven by the threat of more rate hikes. Those boost the US dollar, triggering gold-futures selling. But the Fed’s hawkish spell over traders is waning. Gold and the miners weathered this week’s latest hawkish FOMC meeting pretty well.
The Federal Open Market Committee catapulted its federal-funds rate up an extreme 525 basis points off zero in just 16.3 months into late July! That blasted the FFR to a lofty 22.4-year secular high of 5.38%. And this scorching rate-hike cycle was even more violent internally, with over 4/5ths of it happening in just 9.0 months into mid-December! The Fed has never before hiked so big and fast from such low levels.
The resulting higher US yields ignited a parabolic moonshot in the US dollar. In just 6.0 months into last September, the benchmark US Dollar Index skyrocketed 16.7%! The leveraged gold-futures speculators who dominate gold’s short-term price action closely watch the dollar’s fortunes for their trading cues, and do the opposite. So gold plummeted 20.9% in 6.6 months on heavy and relentless gold-futures dumping!
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Friday, September 22, 2023
5 signs & charts for Stock Market Bulls / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2023
By: EWI
Dear Reader,
While the mainstream is hyper-focused on the Fed, Elliott wavers know:
It's not the Fed that's in the driver's seat.
Investor psychology is what's in charge. Just as it's always been.
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Thursday, September 21, 2023
Why we won't see a repeat of the 1970's Rate Hikes / Interest-Rates / Global Financial System
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Doom merchants continue to run off to the 1970's rate hikes that culminated in eye watering 15% completely miss what's staring them in the face for why that CANNOT happen this time! It can't happen because Debt to GDP is triple that of the 1970's! 120% vs 40%, Raising the Fed funds rate to 15% again would be akin to a 45% rate today.
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Thursday, September 21, 2023
QE4EVER / Stock-Markets / Quantitative Easing
By: Nadeem_Walayat
For over a year now all you have heard on MSM has been how tapering is bearish for asset prices, what;s the narrative that the perma fools have clung onto for new bear market lows being just around the corner right to the recent wholesale capitulation where bears turned into blow off top clowns!
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Tuesday, September 12, 2023
Stock Market Trend Pattern and Bond Market Opportunity / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2023
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Inflation Bond Fire of the Vanities Breeds Opportunity
Fitch downgrades US Debt to AA+ prompts MSM clown narrative for triggering a rise in yields and falling stocks, there is ALWAYS a reason for why market moves, usually the same reason is used for either outcome up or down! The US debt downgrade that is the focus of MSM is a nothing burger as both rising yields and falling stocks were expected long before Fitch pressed the downgrade button as the stock market had transitioned form the topping phase off of the 4600 high set a few days ago (27th July) into a downtrend proper during August that is set to run into a window of late September to Mid October 2023 targeting a decline of at least 10%, so into and S&P range of 4180 to 4100 with many if not most target AI tech stocks set to see a decline typically by 20% off their highs, some more than others, and in fact many were already well into their downtrends coming into August such as AMD which topped at $132.5, which is why I often refer to the S&P as a red herring and caution against basing ones decisions off of the S&P, for instance there was no point waiting for S&P 4600 to trim AMD which FOMO 'd to $132.5 well over a month ago!
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Tuesday, September 12, 2023
Gold Price and Gold Stocks’ Loud Silence / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2023
By: P_Radomski_CFA
What a beautiful nothing! Nothing really happened on the markets on Friday, but due to the context of the previous days’ actions, it was profound.
The thing is that it was a day when markets took a breather and verified their previous moves.
Some price moves are accidental or triggered by geopolitical events. Sometimes, the markets pretty much “have to” move in a certain direction because the only rational thing to do is given the event that is happening. For instance, if a war breaks out in Europe, gold rallies. But it doesn’t mean that it’s going to stay up for long. If the rally was simply reactive and not based on a broader trend, then the rally is going to be invalidated.
Tuesday, September 12, 2023
Something Isn’t Adding Up as U.S. Debt Soars $2 Trillion in 2023 / Interest-Rates / US Debt
By: MoneyMetals
Precious metals markets retreated last week as official U.S. employment data came in surprisingly strong.The Labor Department reported that weekly jobless claims fell by 13,000 to a total of 216,000. Many economists had been expecting jobless claims to rise.
Of course, government economic data is subject to revision and to criticism for flawed methodology. But it still has the ability to move markets, at least in the near term.
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Tuesday, September 12, 2023
Adblue Warning - What Happens if You Don't Top Up! Land Rover Discovery Sport / Personal_Finance / Motoring
By: HGR
Adblue Warning FLASH Message on a Land Rover Discovery sport, so to answer the questions, how long have you exactly got left before the Adblue runs out because it does not go down mile per mile driven and what happens if you let it run out! And remember to subscribe for my next video where I top it up from a bottle bought from Tesco for 10 quid.
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Tuesday, September 12, 2023
The Next Elon Musk Just Graduated from Warwick University / Politics / AI
By: N_Walayat
Graduands become graduates and so it was for the NEXT Elon Musk, as Adnaan was handed his degree, an Master of Engineering 1st Class in Computer Science - AI. Whilst it is going to take time to reach the heights of Elon Musk, nevertheless a good start will be in his first job in Cambridge working on Quantum Computers., which about 10 years down the road will be a game changer in terms of an exponential leap in compute power, which for better or worse will herald the emergence of super machine Intelligence's that are far beyond that of human intelligence.
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Tuesday, September 12, 2023
Stocks Bear Market Leader? Here's a Prime Candidate / Stock-Markets / Stocks Bear Market
By: EWI
This stock market sector has failed to recover since the Dow's Q1 correction
As you may know, in every bull or bear market, some stocks or sector lead while others follow. So, the "leadership" in the stock market works both ways -- in uptrends and down.
The rally in stocks since last November has been led by a relatively few big cap tech names, like Nvidia, Microsoft, Apple, Alphabet and Meta.
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Thursday, September 07, 2023
Why US Annual Budget Deficits Are Getting Worse / Economics / US Economy
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The pandemic a once in a 100 year event sparked rampant deficit spending to bailout the economy, that was 2020, whilst 2021 was nearly as bad! And 2022 did show an improvement by reverting back to pre-pandemic deficit era extremes. However the 2023 deficit is once more ramping up and running at twice the pre-pandemic extreme rate.
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Wednesday, September 06, 2023
US Presidential Election Cycle and Recessions / Economics / Recession 2023
By: Nadeem_Walayat
As my analysis of Jan 2023 pointed out (Stock Market Gasping to Reach 4000 Ahead of Earnings Season, Dow New All Time High 2023?)
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Wednesday, September 06, 2023
Stock Market's Character Has Changed -- Here's How / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2023
By: EWI
We're watching the VIX or "fear index" to see what's next
Stock market investors naturally want to know the closing numbers for the main stock indexes at the end of each trading day.
Yet, it's also good to dig deeper.
Let me show you some examples of how the U.S. Short Term Update, a thrice weekly Elliott Wave International publication which covers near-term trends of key U.S. financial markets, does just that.
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Wednesday, September 06, 2023
Reasons Why You Should Build Your Portfolio and Live Like Rich People / InvestorEducation / Learning to Invest
By: Submissions
Living like rich people is often seen as a fantasy that only a select few can achieve. However, building your portfolio can give you the opportunity to live a life of financial freedom and abundance. The advantages are undeniable, from wealth accumulation and passive income generation to financial security and access to exclusive opportunities. Here are several compelling reasons why you should build your portfolio and aim to live like rich people.
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Monday, September 04, 2023
Yield Curve Inversion and Recessions / Economics / Recession 2023
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Apparently the yield curve inversion has a 100% hit rate, whenever a yield curve inverts it has always resulted in a recession.
Only problem is that it can take anywhere from 6 months to 3 years for the recession to materialise! Thus is another one of those nothing burgers that most analysts obsess over. For instance take the current inversion as of March 2022, those who swallowed the recession is coming mantra have been sat in money market accounts for the last 9 months whilst stocks such as META first doubled, then tripled and look set to quadruple, what kind of *****-A-Doodle-Doo indicator is the yield curve inversion? Which is why I don't tend to pay it much attention, given that it is pretty much useless in terms of investing.
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