Monday, February 20, 2023
More Headwinds for Commodity Market Bulls / Commodities / Commodities Trading
By: Donald_W_Dony
Commodity bulls are facing a challenging year ahead.
Some natural resources were benefiting and riding on the coattails of mounting inflationary pressure in 2020 through to mid-2022, such as oil and Natural gas, while others (gold and silver) were still prospering from the low US dollar and near zero Fed interest rates in 2019.
However, conditions started to change for most commodities in mid-2022 (Chart 1).
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Monday, February 20, 2023
Silent Killers of Stock and Bond Investors 50+ / Stock-Markets / Investing 2023
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Recently I was shocked after speaking with five different investors on the phone. These investors have been involved in the markets for many years, and they trade their accounts. Surprisingly, not a single one of them knew what drawdowns were, as there are two types. In short, it is how we gauge an overall investment strategy’s risk level so you know if a given approach fits within your risk tolerance.
I did a survey several years ago that still blows my mind because the results were so backwards and frustrating. To this day, I’m experiencing the same thing with traders and investors, so I want to talk about it here – drawdowns and what you may not know about them.
A drawdown measures how much an investment or trading account is down from its highest point. It is used to quantify the extent of loss suffered by an investor or trader during a period of market decline. A drawdown is expressed as a percentage. Also, the maximum drawdown (MaxDD) is the largest percentage drop from the account’s highest point to its lowest point over the life of the strategy, which in laymen’s terms, is the largest loss.
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Sunday, February 19, 2023
The Truth No One Wants to Hear about Stocks / Stock-Markets / Investing 2023
By: Submissions
By Justin Spittler : I’ve been getting under some people’s skin.And it’s because I’ve been unapologetically bullish for the last couple months.
I get it. No one wants to hear the bull argument after the horrible year we just had in stocks.
But things have changed.
Many investors haven’t entertained the possibility that last year’s bear market is over.
They’re certain the stock market will head much lower.
Their arguments sound something like: “Inflation is still too high; the economy is speeding toward a recession; the Fed isn’t done raising rates.”
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Sunday, February 19, 2023
Get Ready for the GREAT DISINFLATION / DEFLATION CON of 2023 / Economics / Inflation
By: Nadeem_Walayat
US CPILIE smoke and mirrors inflation rate has peaked and will head sharply lower during 2023 that will sow the seeds for the next spike higher to 10% during 2025.
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Sunday, February 19, 2023
THE METAVERSE MEGA-TREND / Companies / Metaverse
By: Nadeem_Walayat
After descending into the depths of hell the META Stock price is coming alive as that which the herd pundits dismiss as a gimmick is starting to gain traction, the METAVERSE, they will only get it when they see META trade to new all time highs, gaming is where it is right now and what most focus on but that is a mere pinprick of what the Metaverse will herald, realistic computer generated worlds in real time. One aspect of the Metaverse that most completely miss is GAME PLAYING! Not playing games but GAME PLAYING where one plays out scenarios in the metaverse of what one should do in the real world a multitude of times to fine tune ones actions in the real world, and what's more the game playing is compressed in time, i.e. learning to fly a plane well be infinitely quicker in the metaverse than the real world as there is no down time or limits to flight time, yes there are already expensive simulators but all one needs is a good high resolution headset, say the Quest 3 later this year or Quest 4 in 2 or 3 years time and we will be off to the races and META has a head start on the rest.
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Sunday, February 19, 2023
HOW to INVEST - THE POWER OF TRIMMING! / InvestorEducation / Learning to Invest
By: Nadeem_Walayat
As a reminder when I see an opportunity to buy target stocks at deep discounts then I don't tend to flinch and buy the panics, the falling knives, even if takes me to well beyond my target exposure as has been the case for many stocks during the bear market of 2022 because of what will likely follow, a rally to TRIM.
The objectives is to bank profits and free up cash for future buys, as my target is to be approx 15% in cash (current 7.2%), as with many things I take trimming for granted and assume everyone does the same to some degree i.e. the more target stocks fall the more I buy with a view to engage in trimming during a subsequently rally. If you don't trim then it is something you need to adopt as part of your investment strategy as over time it does add up! Substantially for two reasons -
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Saturday, February 18, 2023
S&P Stock Market FOMO Rally / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2023
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Whilst the Dow has raged higher off its October low unfortunately our portfolios are far more in tune with the S&P which has under performed the Dow to significant degree. However the good news is that the S&P tends to outperform the Dow during bull markets so will catchup to and pass the Dow during 2023.
The S&P soared through 3900 running the stops sucking the S&P higher to 3953 as I flagged it would well ahead of the break higher in the comments section of the last posted article. So do check the comments section as I continue to provide patrons with my short-term view on a near daily basis as well as doing my utmost to answer patron queries. Also note, the Patreon app does not always show all of the charts so it is best to access the Patreon via a browser either from your phone, tablet or desktop PC rather than the from the ap.
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Saturday, February 18, 2023
Stock Market US Presidential Election Cycle and Recessions / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2023
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Apparently everyone assumes that a recession during 2023 is a done deal! However an analysis of recessions in terms of the US presidential election cycle suggests that a recession during 2023 is a very low probability event and that the actual recession may not materialise until 2024.
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Saturday, February 18, 2023
Gold Price REALly Declines and That’s Just the Start / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2023
By: P_Radomski_CFA
In all likelihood – yes. Then it’s likely to slide more – much more. With this pace (chart courtesy of GoldPriceForecast.com), gold could move below $1,800 in no time.
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Saturday, February 18, 2023
The Inflation Bonfire Continues but More States Are Fighting Back / Economics / Inflation
By: MoneyMetals
As investors digest the latest readings on inflation, employment, and consumer spending, precious metals markets are wavering on fears of further rate hikes.
Inflation continues to run well above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target.
On Tuesday, the Labor Department released the latest Consumer Price Index figures. The CPI rose a higher than expected 0.5% in January. That translates into an annual gain of 6.4%.
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Saturday, February 18, 2023
How This Pattern from the Prior US Housing Market Bust is Repeating / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: EWI
Here's when homes will likely sell for once-in-a-lifetime bargains
Just like the gold "in them thar hills" motivated people from all walks of life to become miners way back when, real estate booms have motivated people from far and wide to become agents.
In both cases, easy riches seemed to be there for the taking.
But easy riches can be hard to get sometimes, as this New York Times headline indicates:
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Tuesday, February 14, 2023
Stock Market Sowing the Seeds for the Most Unexpected Bull Run in History / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2023
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Stock Market Sowing the Seeds for the Most Unexpected Bull Run in History
The Santa rally that runs for 7 trading days into the start of each new year expired on the 4th of January and believe it or not technically we actually got a Santa rally, the 7th straight Santa rally in a row.
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Tuesday, February 14, 2023
Stock Market PUMP ahead of US CPI LIE Inflation Data Release DUMP / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2023
By: Nadeem_Walayat
US CPI Data released for October, November, December and January show the CPLIE script of usually a fake out drop ahead or on release followed by strong rally on relief that whatever the data is, it was not quite as bad as it could have been and thus triggers a FOMO rally fed by bears shorting during the preceding decline rushing to cover their shorts, and so are we in for a similar event Tuesday? or is this time going to be more like December, the only time when there was a deviation from the script as it was looking rather obvious by then and hence the market did the opposite, what is obvious right now? Probably a FOIMO rally, so on face value suggests to expect the opposite which is what I have been positioning towards these past weeks.
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Wednesday, February 08, 2023
S&P500, Gold, Silver and Crypto's Trend Forecasts 2023 / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2023
By: Nadeem_Walayat
In terms of my stock market trend forecast the Dow by now would be trading at approx 32,500 vs actual last close of 33,203 for a +0.9% deviation, imagine if someone told you where the Dow will be in 3 months time and by that time the Dow is within 1% of the forecast price, so the forecast is proving to be an accurate road map against which to measure relative strength or weakness.
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Wednesday, February 08, 2023
Clown Cramer META is FINISHED at $100 on CNBC Cartoon Network at Mother of Tech Stocks Buying Opps! / Stock-Markets / Mainstream Media
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Wonder why you did not buy META when the stock was trading down to UNDER $100! It is because it is not easy to buy stocks when they are dirt cheap unless one has a plan, already has a list of target stocks to buy and BUY THEM WHEN CHEAP! BUY THEM WHEN BLOOD IS POURING OUT OF ONES EYES at the draw downs they are generating! BUY THEM when MSM are SAYIING they are now DEAD stocks! As clown Cramer was saying during October, DO NOT BUY TECH STOCKS this clown was spouting as I and hopefully many patrons were catching the many falling knives during Octobers bloodbath, Clown Cramer on the CNBC Cartoon network was stating that the tech stocks were finished, META was finished at $100 per share! When it WAS the mother of all buying opps! CNBC IS the CARTOON NETWORK!
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Wednesday, February 08, 2023
Today’s Best Commodity Market Trading Setups / Commodities / Commodities Trading
By: EWI
Hi,
You're invited to a free commodity-trading webinar!
Join Elliott Wave International's Chief Commodity Analyst, Jim Martens, this Thursday, Feb. 9 at 1 p.m. Eastern time for a special, live webinar: Today's Best Commodity Setups.
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Tuesday, February 07, 2023
Crypto's, with Most Potential Upside / Currencies / cryptocurrency
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Firstly, one does not invest in coruptos, one gambles on coruptos that one day a greater fool will come along to pay more than what one paid because as far as I can tell crypto's do not have any intrinsic value. Still the one thing that could lift some is limited supply and low inflation rates, especially those that tend to undergo halving's in miner rewards such as Bitcoin, though most coruptos (99%) are SCAM COINS! As many have found out during the corrupt0 blood bath of 2022 when several so called pegged to the US dollar stable coins disappeared in a puff of smoke with the rest teetering on the brink, so a case of having ones eyes wide open. Again Crypto's are SCAM CENTRAL! Especially during the bull mania phase as the scam artist celebs all try to cash in at the expense of their followers, the likes of the Kim Kardashian who settled out of the court with the SEC for pumping EthereumMax scam coin, and mega youtubers such as Logan Paul with his scam Zoo token game that disappeared in a puff of smoke taking millions of dollars of his fans money with it, though the scammers ended up stabbing each other in the back to such an extent that most of the scammers also lost money, rug pull on the rug pullers as the Dev did a runner with $6 million leaving Logan Paul and his inner circle down collectively about $1 million. Anyway crypto's are a case of having ones EYES WIDE OPEN, if ones eyelids are droopy then steer clear!
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Tuesday, February 07, 2023
Gold Price Trend Forecast 2023 / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2023
By: Nadeem_Walayat
And similar trend for the Gold price, also attempting to break out higher off the October - November base that is likely to Gold target a trend to between $2000 and $2100 during 2023 vs the last close of $1804.
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Tuesday, February 07, 2023
Could Silver Price Outperform Gold Again? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2023
By: Richard_Mills
Gold sold off following the US Federal Reserve’s Feb. 1 decision to raise interest rates another 25 basis points. The federal funds rate now sits at between 4.50 and 4.75%.
Spot gold at first gained about $20 to $1,956, within $80 of the all-time high of $2,034, reached in August, 2020. The dollar fell Wednesday along with bond yields.
The market’s initial take was that the Fed is nearly finished raising rates. A senior investment strategist from Allianz Investment Management told CNBC that the messaging leaned “slightly dovish”, with the lack of clarity signaling that the Fed is nearing the end of its rate tightening cycle.
After hikes end, Charlie Ripley said the central bank will likely “sit tight while the economic data catches up to the policy.”
“The Fed is essentially speaking out of both sides of the mouth as they signaled further increases are appropriate, but also acknowledged they will consider the cumulative amount of tightening in future policy decisions,” he said.
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Tuesday, February 07, 2023
Silver ‘Sediment’ – Encore For Silver / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2023
By: Kelsey_Williams
SILVER SEDIMENT
“Sediment is solid material that is moved and deposited in a new location. Sediment can consist of rocks and minerals…” and “matter that settles to the bottom…”
The silver price closed on Friday at $22.30 oz., down $1.15 from its closing price the day before.
What is worse, though, is that it follows a drop of $.50 oz. on Thursday. And, on both Thursday and Friday, the silver price collapsed early in the day, found the bottom level and stayed there.
From its intraday peak on Thursday morning in New York to the closing price Friday, silver declined $2.30 oz., or more than nine percent.
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