Friday, November 06, 2020

Trump or Biden - USA is Still Going Bananas / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2020

By: Gary_Tanashian

You see, it’s not a Trump thing. It’s an ‘America is so hopelessly indebted (as are other developed economies) that they have no choice now’ thing.

However the election shakes out – most likely Democrat president and congress, Republican senate – the stock market is cheering two things in my opinion. It is cheering US dollar compromising fiscal stimulus (Fed prints, politicians spend) and the coming of more US dollar compromising monetary policy (Fed prints, Fed monetizes bonds AKA debt, Fed screws with any other esoteric tool it can get its hands on in the age of MMT TMM, AKA Total Market Manipulation).

Friday, November 06, 2020

It Has Been Decided: Silver Is Going Much Higher / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: Hubert_Moolman

The currency markets have just announced what is coming for silver. This was explained in my previous article.

The USD/ZAR ratio has now broken down. This sets silver up to finish the year with a very strong rally:

Friday, November 06, 2020

Magic Words That Spell More Money for You / Personal_Finance / Debt & Loans

By: Justin_Weinger

Friday, November 06, 2020

Betting Markets Declare Biden Wins US Presidential Election 2020, Helped by CNN Propaganda / ElectionOracle / US Presidential Election 2020

By: N_Walayat

US election night proved to be a nail biting event, one of Biden taking an early lead that within hours evaporated where by Midnight US time it looked as though Trump could pull off another election miracle like 2016 with a lot of glum faces on the Democrats propaganda network channel CNN, whose presenters spent subsequent hours trying to ignore the stream of bad news by repeating the mantra that there are a lot of Democrat votes to come in later (mail in ballots) after election night is over as if they were party to inside information?

Thursday, November 05, 2020

Betting Markets Call it for Biden Election Win, the Next President of the United States! / ElectionOracle / US Presidential Election 2020

By: Nadeem_Walayat

US election night proved to be a nail biting event, one of Biden taking an early lead that within hours evaporated where by Midnight US time it looked as though Trump could pull off another election miracle like 2016 with a lot of glum faces on the Democrats propaganda network channel CNN, whose presenters spent subsequent hours trying to ignore the stream of bad news by repeating the mantra that there are a lot of Democrat votes to come in later (mail in ballots) after election night is over as if they were party to inside information?

Thursday, November 05, 2020

Is Gold the Only US Election Winner? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

The elections are behind us. However, the official results are still not definite. What does it mean for gold prices?

Ladies and Gentlemen, the new President of the United States is… still unknown! The election results are not available, as some states are still counting the votes. The race is very balanced, with few states remaining too close to call. At the moment of writing this report, Joe Biden leads the White House race with 253 electoral votes, while Donald Trump has 213 electoral votes. So, Biden is more likely to become the new POTUS . However, with those few states officially still undecided, Trump could still win. Hopefully, we will get some of the results later today, but it might even take several days to count the ballots in some locations.

Thursday, November 05, 2020

Trump's Unilateralism, China's Multilateralism and the Real COVID-19 / Politics / Pandemic

By: Dan_Steinbock

New estimates on actual COVID-19 cases in 2020 highlight the stark differences between the Trump administration’s unilateral stance, and China’s multilateral approach to overcoming the pandemic challenge.

The failed containment of the COVID-19 pandemic is about to result in 50 million cumulative confirmed cases and more than 1.2 million deaths around the world.

Worse, the official figures are only a tip of the iceberg. Some 10 percent of the world population may already have had the new coronavirus, according to the World Health Organization (WHO).

Consider the implications: That translates to 780 million people – almost 20 times the official total. The global stakes are far higher than currently acknowledged.

Thursday, November 05, 2020

Money Management, Financial Literacy and Investments for Beginners / Personal_Finance / Financial Education

By: Sumeet_Manhas

Money management is so fundamentally important you would think everyone would take care to make sure they were fiscally responsible. However this is absolutely not the case. It makes sense to learn how to manage your money from an early age and certainly teaching children to look after money early on responsibly will reap great benefits in their later lives.

Of course as you get older you will have more to worry about than just your pocket money. There will be rent or a mortgage, credit cards, pension plans, bills, several bank accounts possibly, an IRA or an ISA if you are in the UK. All these things can seem daunting and if they are not managed properly can go from feeling like you are swimming against the current to a much worse feeling of drowning.

Thursday, November 05, 2020

AMD Ryzen Zen 3 Cinebench r20 Scores 5300x, 5600x, 5700x, 5800x 5900x, 5950x, Best Value for Money CPU / Personal_Finance / Computing

By: HGR

Here are the Cinebench r20 scores for all of AMD's new Zen 3 Ryzen processors, scores for the 5300x, 5600x, 5700x, 5900x and the 16 core 5950x. How do the scores compare against pre launch estimates in terms of performance and which sku represents the best value for money, find out in our latest Zen 3 video.

Wednesday, November 04, 2020

Gold Price Slides after US Elections, but before Results / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: P_Radomski_CFA

In Monday’s analysis , I wrote that the market situation is likely to become more specific right before, during, and perhaps shortly after the U.S. presidential elections . And by “specific”, I mean that the markets could begin moving against their previous trends.

Well, that’s precisely what we’ve witnessed so far. The overnight volatility is significant as the markets try to estimate the election outcome, with the odds keep changing quickly. Let’s start today’s market examination with the USD Index.

Wednesday, November 04, 2020

How to Stay Ahead of Price Turns in the U.S. Long Bond Market / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: EWI

This method of analysis applies to any widely traded financial market

Back in August, the volatility index for Treasury debt was at an all-time low, indicating record commitment to the idea the markets would continue to calmly rise.

Indeed, here's a July 27 Bloomberg headline:

Bond Investors Are Getting Fresh Reasons to Stay Record Bullish

Bloomberg mentioned U.S.-China tensions as a reason that investors would seek a safe haven in bonds, hence, pushing prices higher.

Wednesday, November 04, 2020

A Golden Election Promise / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: The_Gold_Report

Peter Krauth explains why he believes gold will be the biggest winner in the election.

There's no shortage of prognostications or conjecture about the U.S. election.

Of course, everyone has an opinion.

Some like red, some like blue, some like neither.

Last week's volatility in stocks, bonds, currencies and commodities is a clear signal that markets are uneasy. They hate uncertainty.

If the election's outcome is less than clear, then volatility will be around for a while, and probably even intensify.

Wednesday, November 04, 2020

Amazing Yet Frightening Festivals Across The World You Must Check Out Today / Personal_Finance / Travel & Holidays

By: Sumeet_Manhas

Tuesday, November 03, 2020

US Election CHAOS! Trump to Contest Result, Refuse to Concede Defeat if Biden Wins! / ElectionOracle / US Presidential Election 2020

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Are you ready for the Trump Show Election Chaos Season Finale?

Voting day has finally arrived and the final polls have Biden way ahead of Trump ahead of today's vote. Though of course the opinion polls are not very accurate, tend to be skewed against conservatives due to liberal polling bias, so the actual result is very unlikely to be what the pollsters and pundits expect, as was the case in 2016. Whereas my election matrix analysis forecast which did accurately forecast Trump winning in 2016, does conclude in Biden winning in 2020 on about 49.1% against 46.4% for Trump, and securing more than 300 electoral college votes.

However, in the face of defeat it does not look like Trump is going to go quietly into the night, and it all has to do with the counting of millions of mail in ballots, in which respect Biden has a 3-1 advantage over Trump as many more Democrats heeded coronavirus warnings and chose to vote early by mail rather than stand in long voting lines at the polling stations. Which means on election night the advantage will be in Trumps favour as many mail in ballots will only be counted on the 4th and 5th of November, so whatever lead Trump has on election night will be whittled away in Biden's favour.

Tuesday, November 03, 2020

Stock Market SPY Channeling lower Ahead of US Election Result / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020

By: Chris_Vermeulen

From a simple technical standpoint, we’ve seen a number of recent breakdowns in the SPY related to Fibonacci Price Theory and Price Gap Theory.  One of the most critical components of the recent 60+ days price activity in the SPY is the failed new high on October 12.  This failed attempt to rally above the previous high price level, near 358.82, suggests a broader market price decline has setup (a downtrend).

SPY 240 MINUTE CHART

After the failed new high peak on October 12, a series of new downside price gaps can be seen in the SPY chart below as price accelerated downward.  These unfilled price gaps represent price acceleration to the downside and will eventually exhaust – creating a new momentum base/bottom.

Tuesday, November 03, 2020

China’s New 15-Year Vision: ‘Dual Circulation’ to Sustainable Growth / Economics / China Economy

By: Dan_Steinbock

While the coronavirus fallout is still escalating in Western economies, China’s rebound has begun. Global recovery requires multilateral cooperation that China's new development pattern seeks to foster.   

Last week, the 19th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China (CPC) completed its fifth plenary session in Beijing.

Unlike all other major countries, China’s economy is rebounding and fueling global prospects.

Tuesday, November 03, 2020

Determining the Crude Oil Price Next Big Move / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Nadia_Simmons

Crude oil started this week with a bearish price gap and a breakdown below the September and October lows. This is an extremely valuable indication. The black gold seems to have finally decided what the next big move is going to be, and by breaking lower, it effectively “agreed” with our expectations.

Tuesday, November 03, 2020

As China goes green, Copper market expected to tighten further / Commodities / Copper

By: Richard_Mills

The most pessimistic forecasts of copper demand, and pricing, during the worst pandemic in 102 years, have failed to materialize.

From a four-year low in March, when the coronavirus slammed into Europe and North America, the red metal used widely in construction, communications, transportation and energy transmission, has mounted a serious comeback.

As of this writing spot copper is trading at $3.08 per pound, compared to around $2.10/lb in mid-March – a gain of 46%. The spot price has stayed above $3.00 since Oct. 8 – which is remarkable considering the reports of impending economic doom, amid a second wave of covid-19 infections in Europe and North America.

The following analysis by AOTH has copper showing no signs of slowing down; in fact, while the copper market was tight before the pandemic began, we expect it to tighten even further, due to a constellation of factors, starting with China.

Monday, November 02, 2020

US 2020 Election Forecast Matrix: Will Donald Trump Win? / Local / US Presidential Election 2020

By: N_Walayat

Can Trump still win in 2020 despite being 10 points behind Biden in the polls? Let's find out from someone who did accurately predict both that the UK would vote to LEAVE the EU and that Trump would win the US Presidential election in 2016 despite what the pollsters, pundits, bookies and markets were stating at the time, as illustrated by my articles and videos at the time. And similarly I also accurately forecast the outcome of the 2012 and 2008 US Presidential elections.

Monday, November 02, 2020

Stocks and the Dollar Weigh Into US Presidential Election 2020 / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2020

By: P_Radomski_CFA

It’s evident that stocks have once again invalidated the breakout above their early-2020 high. They have also closed the week below the lowest weekly September close. Back in September, the S&P 500 index reversed on a weekly basis and rallied once again. This is similar to what happened in 2018 (August) when stocks first broke to new highs. Back then, the volatility was lower, and therefore it’s no wonder that the breakout held and this time (in September) it was temporarily invalidated.

Back in 2018, stocks moved to a new high (not significantly higher), and this time they didn’t manage to do so, but were quite close (the rally seems to have burned itself out in August).