Friday, February 10, 2017

NATO Is Obsolete for the US / Politics / US Military

By: John_Mauldin

BY GEORGE FRIEDMAN : Donald Trump deeply upset the Europeans when he raised the possibility that NATO is obsolete and that the European Union is failing.

But this isn’t the first time these issues have been discussed. I wrote about it last year, and the conversation has only continued.

What Trump has done is simply bring into the open the question of Europe’s relationship with the US.

Friday, February 10, 2017

The Most Exciting Period of Human History Is yet to Come / Politics / Technology

By: John_Mauldin

While complexity mathematics and information theory may be relatively new, the general concepts contained in them were well known to previous generations of economists dating back to Adam Smith.

Friday, February 10, 2017

Tension between Italy, Germany, and the EU Is Growing / Politics / European Union

By: John_Mauldin

BY ANTONIA COLIBASANU : As mentioned in our 2017 forecast, Geopolitical Futures said that the evolution of the Italian banking crisis will force a confrontation between Italy, Germany, and the European Union. The groundwork for this confrontation was laid last year, and the face-off has further evolved already this year.

In December 2016, two Italian members of the European Parliament (MEPs) from the populist Europe of Nations and Freedom groups asked the European Central Bank (ECB) in a letter to explain the “widening balance divergences between individual countries [in the eurozone] since the 2008 crisis.”

Friday, February 10, 2017

Great Fiscal Rotation and Gold / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

Reflation is a fact, at least for a while. And it is not limited to the U.S., as it is a truly global phenomenon – since 2016, the rebound in economic activity has been seen both in the advanced and emerging markets (this is partially due to the flattening in deep recessions in Russia and Brazil). The broad-based improvement is bad for the yellow metal, as it signals a more lasting revival. Additionally, although the recent rebound has mainly been triggered by the huge fiscal stimulus in China, the advanced economies have also improved significantly, in particular the U.S. It means negative news for gold, which is more sensitive to developments in America.

Friday, February 10, 2017

SPX is Testing the Trendline / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2017

By: Anthony_Cherniawski

Good Morning!

SPX futures are marginally higher, but appear not to have broken above the trendline. The futures have not broken above yesterday’s high, so there is one technically bearish sign.

ZeroHedge writes, “S&P futures rose further into record territory, European shares rose to within striking distance of their highest levels in more than a year while bonds fell and the dollar rose as investors cheered a surge in Chinese trade data amid hopes of "phenomenal" tax cuts by Donald Trump, all of which have rekindled the Trumpflation trade.”

Friday, February 10, 2017

Gold Prices Up 5.8% YTD As Trump ‘Honeymoon’ Ends / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017

By: GoldCore

Gold prices continued to shine this week reaching $1,244.70 per ounce and and has posted gains in five of the last six weeks. This week it reached a new three-month high – it’s highest since the Trump win and has climbed over 6% this year, beating the gains made in the same period in 2016.

Friday, February 10, 2017

Stock Market Very Solid Session / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2017

By: Harry_Boxer

The stock market indices had an up-day today, and a strong one, particularly by midday, making new all-time highs across the board. The day started out with a pop to the upside, a little pullback, and then they ran, the Nasdaq 100 going from 5197 to 5221, a new all-time high. In the afternoon, they came down to 5209, and bounced back to 5222, but couldn’t hold it, and backed off to 5212. The S&P 500 started out with a pop, and kept on running, reaching as high as 2320, a new all-time high, and backed off to 2307. All three indices came down slightly at the end of the day, but still closed in the green column.

Friday, February 10, 2017

USD and Gold Cycle Update / Currencies / US Dollar

By: SurfCity

Just a quick update on the USD and Gold. Todays move by the USD finally seemed to put a pause in the relentless uptrend by Gold and the Miners. I have the USD on day 6 now in what is very clearly a new short term Trading Cycle.

My cycle analysis indicates that this USD Trading Cycle uptrend should top out sometime in the next two days if it is to be a Left Translated cycle that fails. If it does not, this would be an early warning that the USD may have also found its longer term Intermediate Cycle Low as well.

Friday, February 10, 2017

Walkers Crisps Snap & Share 1st Win - UCL Finale Capitano Football! / Personal_Finance / Freebies and Comps

By: Anika_Walayat

This is an update in the Walkers Crisps Snap & Share promotion, an easy to enter comp in conjunction with UEFA Champions League where entrants can win one of - 40 pairs of match tickets, 500 play stations and 7000 footballs. After only 5 days of posting 3 pic's a day on Walkers pinned post facebook page we managed to win an adidas UCL Finale 16 Capitano Football, so unlike last years Spell and Go disaster, this years Walkers promotion is actually converting into prizes. Of course footballs numbering 7000 are by far the easiest to win, so find out what prizes we are next targeting to win.

Thursday, February 09, 2017

Silver Price 2017 Trend Forecast Update - Video / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017

By: Nadeem_Walayat

The Silver price hit bottom at $15.67 mid December 2016 following which it has entered an uptrend that has taken the precious metal to its recent trading high of $17.88, all this whilst apparently many silver bugs as well as gold bugs had publically thrown in the towel due to the failure of the precious metals to perform following Trumps election win which instead of igniting a rally had resulted in a 20% slump in the silver which ensured that most silver bugs would be too battered and bruised to partake in the subsequent rally.

Thursday, February 09, 2017

Stock Market VIX Cycles Set to Explode in March/April 2017 / Stock-Markets / Volatility

By: Chris_Vermeulen

My recent analysis of the markets has shown what I believe to be an explosion in market volatility set to starting happening between February 21, 2017 and March 30, 2017.  The historical VIX cycles have been running about 18~22 week intervals for expansion and extreme volatility levels.  The period August 2015 to January 2016 represented roughly 5 months.  The period between January 2016 to June 2016 represented roughly 5 months.  The period between June 2016 to Early November 2016 represented roughly 5 months (just a little short of 5 months in reality).

Thursday, February 09, 2017

Elliott Wave Analysis: Where the RUBBER Commodity Meets the Road / Commodities / Elliott Wave Theory

By: EWI

See why rubber prices bounced from an 11-year low to a 4-year high

There are nearly 50 commodity markets traded all over the world at any given time. That's one for every state in the United States.

So, how is an investor or trader supposed to know which of these markets to follow and which ones to dismiss?

Well, for our long-time Commodity Junctures editor Jeffrey Kennedy, the answer is simple: Don't wait for an Elliott wave pattern to develop on a market's price chart. But rather, choose price charts that already present discernible Elliott wave patterns.

Thursday, February 09, 2017

SPX Reaches the Top of its Diagonal Pattern / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2017

By: Anthony_Cherniawski

The problem that I have with zigzags is…at which degree are we viewing it? The zigzag to 2300.99 is a completed one, but at a Minute degree, while Waves 1 through 3 are at a Minor degree. Today’s final surge brings the pattern into agreement. While Wave [a] is larger than [c], a common relationship, Wave [c] is a Fibonacci 61.8% of Wave [a], which is the alternate relationship that we look for.

Today is 17.55 months from the August 24, 2015 low. That is, 10.75 days over 17.2 months. That is a close enough tolerance to suggest that the long-term uptrend may be over.

Thursday, February 09, 2017

Here’s Why We Won’t See An Energy Rally—and How to Profit / Commodities / Energy Resources

By: John_Mauldin

BY PATRICK WATSON : Energy stocks jumped after the November election because investors thought new management in Washington would be their ticket to wealth. But what if it’s not?

On the surface, the stars seem lined up for Big Oil & Gas. President Trump promised to reduce the industry’s regulatory burden and open more federal land and offshore areas to drilling.

Thursday, February 09, 2017

The Leading Power In East Asia Will Be Japan—Not China / Politics / GeoPolitics

By: John_Mauldin

BY GEORGE FRIEDMAN AND JACOB L. SHAPIRO : By 2040, Japan will rise as East Asia’s leading power. This is one of our most controversial forecasts at Geopolitical Futures.

Our readers know that GPF is bearish on China. And while some may disagree on that point, they usually see that the reasoning is sound. China will face serious problems in coming years… problems that will strain the Communist Party’s rule. (I write about this topic extensively in This Week in Geopolitics—subscribe here for free.)

Japan, though, seems a bridge too far. Its population is less than a tenth of China’s size (and it’s not just aging… it’s shrinking). Japan also has a debt-to-GDP ratio over 229%.

Thursday, February 09, 2017

Bullish Case for GBP/JPY / Currencies / Forex Trading

By: MarketsToday

Looking back we see that the GBPJPY moved into a 16-month downtrend following the 195.87 peak reached in June 2015. Support was eventually found at 124.59 four months ago. It was promptly followed by a sharp nine-week rally up into 148.45 resistance (most recent peak). That price area is where both support and resistance were seen back in 2013, at resistance of the 55-week exponential moving average (ema), and at the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the internal downtrend (coming off the 168.08 lower swing high).

Thursday, February 09, 2017

Retroeconomics – Global Challenge for Economic Development / Economics / Economic Theory

By: Submissions

Vladimer Papava writes: In many and mostly poor countries, their economies have been using obsolete technologies.  As a result, all of these countries do not have a real chance to be successful in any long-term economic growth.  The usage of obsolete technologies by any company can create the illusion that this or that business is prosperous.  At the level of international competition, however, it is obvious that these types of companies do not have any chance for success.

Thursday, February 09, 2017

Give Gift of Real Gold This Valentines Day / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017

By: GoldCore

For the love of gold
(Don’t) put a ring on it
Is gold jewellery going out of fashion?
You’ll never get what you paid for it
Devaluation: Synthetic diamonds, 3D Printing and Rise of the machines
Buy gold – No one has cracked alchemy
Give the gift of real gold – They will thank you for it  

Thursday, February 09, 2017

Stock Market Positive Expectations As Investors' Sentiment Improves - New Record Highs Ahead? / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2017

By: Paul_Rejczak

Briefly: In our opinion, speculative short positions are favored (with stop-loss at 2,330, and profit target at 2,150, S&P 500 index).

Our intraday outlook remains bearish, and our short-term outlook is bearish. Our medium-term outlook remains neutral, following S&P 500 index breakout above last year's all-time high:

Intraday outlook (next 24 hours): bearish
Short-term outlook (next 1-2 weeks): bearish
Medium-term outlook (next 1-3 months): neutral
Long-term outlook (next year): neutral

Thursday, February 09, 2017

Major Money Managers Have A Grim Outlook For The US Stock Market / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2017

By: Jeff_Berwick

Several months ago we were following closely as billionaire after billionaire warned of financial calamity to come.

Whether they were warning of a downturn, debt jubilee, or taking large positions in precious metals stocks, guys like Stanley Druckenmiller, Crispin Odey, Paul Singer and even the trillionaire himself, Jacob Rothschild, were outspoken in their stark view of the markets.