Wednesday, February 15, 2017

Gold Intermediate Cycle Update / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017

By: SurfCity

NOTHING is certain or guaranteed in Markets.... ever. Anyone who tells you otherwise is a charlatan.

That said, within Bressert's Cycle framework the norm is that a new Intermediate Cycle in any asset should test or breach the Intermediate Cycle downtrend before topping and those are my expectations based on my current analysis on both Gold and the USD.

Wednesday, February 15, 2017

Gold Bull Market? Or was 2016 Just a Gold Bug Mirage? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017

By: Plunger

The consensus view in the precious metals sector is that we have embarked on the next great bull market in gold and silver. The story is gold and the entire mining sector bottomed in early 2016 and launched into its first leg up into early August. The sector then underwent a stiff correction from August to December, and has now finally found its legs and the upward advance has resumed. Money is now flowing into exploration and development plays reflecting the belief in this narrative.

I have an alternative interpretation of the markets action and I would like to share it with you. Intellectual integrity requires me to remain objective and skeptical of the market action since Jan 2016 due to various reasons we will discuss. As an investor I participated in last year’s colossal rally from start to finish, however I am NOT convinced the epic gold bear market which began in 2011 ended in early 2016.

Wednesday, February 15, 2017

Here’s How Germany Buys Time From China / Economics / Germany

By: John_Mauldin

BY JACOB SHAPIRO : As we’ve written before, Germany’s economy has avoided problems besetting most export-dependent countries in the last two years.

In 2015, Germany accomplished this by compensating for decreased demand from China by substantially increasing its exports to the United States and the United Kingdom. In 2016, the situation was reversed. Exports to China increased while exports to the US and UK declined significantly.

Wednesday, February 15, 2017

The Stock Trader’s Actionable Guide to Trump / Stock-Markets / Investing 2017

By: David_Galland

There are aspects to Trump’s public comments that concern me. He says stuff that makes me sit up and take notice, especially on the military front.

Yet, rather than blindly accepting the “news” that best supports my biases, I try to view each new Trump “event” objectively.

By contrast, the progressives/liberals unfailingly fall for every bit of click-bait that reinforces their view that Trump is a detestable, woman-hating, earth killer and the epitome of a capitalist pig.

Wednesday, February 15, 2017

This Chart Shows an Economic Anomaly That Investors Can’t Explain / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates

By: John_Mauldin

BY PATRICK WATSON : Nineteenth-century writer Frédéric Bastiat, in his classic “Broken Window” parable, warned that economic thinking requires us to see what isn’t happening as well as what is.

This yield curve chart from Macquarie Research provides a good example.

Wednesday, February 15, 2017

How to Easily Win a PS4 Games Console in Walkers UEFA Snap and Share Promo / Personal_Finance / Freebies and Comps

By: Sami_Walayat

The Walkers Crisps UEFA Snap and Share promotion is proving to be an relatively easy to win competition as so far just 12 days into the promotion we have already won 1 of 7000 footballs and also just won 1 of 500 PS4 games console plus soccer games! The promotion is proving to be very easy to enter and win a prize, so find out in our latest video of how you too could win a PS4 in this promotion that still has well over 2 months to run! And also maybe even win one of the top prizes which is 1 of 40 UEFA match tickets.

Tuesday, February 14, 2017

The Stocks Bull Market No One Believes In / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2017

By: Clif_Droke

The stock market continues to make new highs, yet none of the signs which accompany a market bubble are evident.  Investors are asking, “When will the Dow finally correct?”  By “correct” they mean “decline.”  However, a market correction doesn’t always entail a decline for the major averages and can sometimes take the form of a lateral consolidation or trading range.  That appears to be the case for the 2-month period from December through early February when the Dow and S&P made little headway.

Tuesday, February 14, 2017

What is Trump's US Dollar Policy? / Currencies / US Dollar

By: Michael_Pento

The United States Treasury Department has supported a strong dollar policy since its inception in 1789. Period. There were no qualifications or equivocations with that stance, especially since the ascendance of the dollar as the world's reserve currency. That's why it was so highly unusual when the newly confirmed Treasury Secretary, Steven Mnuchin, uttered this quote recently: "From time to time an excessively strong dollar could have a negative short-term effect on the economy."

Tuesday, February 14, 2017

Bitcoin Price Dancing around $1,000 / Currencies / Bitcoin

By: Mike_McAra

In short: no speculative positions.

Needham & Co., an investment firm, has issued a new report on the potential success of three prospective Bitcoin ETF. In the report, we read:

Given elevated interest in the bitcoin ETFs that are going through the regulatory approval process we're revisting the subject with a deeper dive to take a look at the factors that may affect approval, differences between the three filings, market indicators of approval odds, and the effect of approval/disapproval on price. Overall, we maintain our estimates that the likelihood of approval is less than 25% but that, if it were approved, such an ETF would be extremely successful. That said, there are some market indicators that seem to suggest higher odds than our own estimates. Ultimately, while we don't see any specific reason to disapprove the Winklevoss Bitcoin ETF, we think the SEC is likely to disapprove out of an abundance of caution around bitcoin itself (as opposed to something specific to the filing).

Tuesday, February 14, 2017

Bankrupt US and Venezuelan Regimes Barring Travel to Citizenry Attempting to Flee / Politics / Social Issues

By: Jeff_Berwick

Over the past few years we have watched the situation in Venezuela continually deteriorate as the country’s socialist regime led by Nicolas Maduro has helped to hyperinflate the nation into oblivion.

For Venezuelans, this runaway inflation has come with a number of awful consequences.
The situation is especially dire in Caracas where people often have to kill and eat stray animals to survive since the bread lines which stretch blocks, oftentimes run out of food.

Tuesday, February 14, 2017

All the Fake News That’s Fit to Print / Politics / Mainstream Media

By: BATR

Understanding the complex relationships that make up human endeavors permeates every aspect of society and politics. The ability to be informed about events is a basic motivation to search out news about what is exactly happening in the world we all live in. Journalism purports to report the first draft of history. In practice the press and media coverage is systemically bereft of relevant facts and completely void of objectivity. The currency of the realm is trust for all journalists. Their collective credibility is bankrupt for a very simple reason; their newscasts are based upon lies, newspeak and intentional deception.  

Tuesday, February 14, 2017

Trump A New Jacksonian Era? The Fourth Turning (2) / Politics / US Politics

By: James_Quinn

In Part One of this article I documented the populist administration of Andrew Jackson and similarities to Donald Trump's populist victory in the recent election. I'll now try to assess the chances of a Trump presidency accomplishing its populist agenda.

The Trumpian Era

"But you must remember, my fellow-citizens, that eternal vigilance by the people is the price of liberty, and that you must pay the price if you wish to secure the blessing. It is to be regretted that the rich and powerful too often bend the acts of government to their own selfish purposes." - Andrew Jackson

Tuesday, February 14, 2017

Stock Market Yet Another Wall Street 'Witch's Brew' / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2017

By: Gordon_T_Long

WITCH'S BREW: Sentiment UP, Complacency UP - but Uncertainty Also UP (Not DOWN?)

When did the distortion start occurring in the markets when increasing UNCERTAINTY can come with an increase in COMPLACENCY and SENTIMENT?

Tuesday, February 14, 2017

This Is Why You Don’t Own A Lot Of Stocks / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2017

By: John_Rubino

You’d think that by now every relevant measure of stock market overvaluation would have been converted into a chart and circulated throughout the blogosphere. But Zero Hedge has come up with a new one depicting how long the typical wage slave has to work to buy the typical stock. And – surprise – it shows historic, egregious overvaluation which, if history is any guide, implies a crash is close at hand.

Tuesday, February 14, 2017

Europe Eyes Sweeping Cash Ban: Are Gold & Silver Next? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017

By: MoneyMetals

The global war on cash continues. The cabal of bankers seeking more transaction fees, busybody political leaders, and central bankers who want to experiment with negative interest rates recently threw India into turmoil by eliminating the two largest denomination bank notes.

Now they are preparing a similar assault on Europeans’ ability to transact privately and without giving bankers a cut. European Union officials just published a "Proposal for an EU Initiative on Restriction on Payments in Cash."

Tuesday, February 14, 2017

How to Easily ID Support and Resistance on Your Charts, Bank of America Example / Companies / Company Chart Analysis

By: EWI

See an example in the chart of Bank of America (BAC)

You've probably heard the terms "support" and "resistance." Common technical analysis terms, they are price points on a chart that can help determine when a move will pause, or even stop and reverse.

Tuesday, February 14, 2017

Proposed Tax Reforms Face Enormous Headwinds / Politics / Taxes

By: John_Mauldin

Dr. Lacy Hunt and Van Hoisington of Hoisington Investment Management produce a must-read quarterly letter I’ve featured multiple times in my weekly newsletter, Outside the Box (subscribe here for free).

This piece on tax reform is one of the most important pieces they’ve written in a long time.

Lacy and Van establish that proposed tax reforms will face enormous headwinds that were not there during previous tax-reform eras. This means that the benefits that Republicans think will accrue are likely to take longer to appear… and be less than expected. And that means it will take more than what is proposed right now to jump-start the economy.

Tuesday, February 14, 2017

Americans Will Pay For Trump’s “America First” Plan / Politics / US Politics

By: John_Mauldin

Jared Dillian says the American consumer will pay for Trump’s “America First” plan.

In a recent video interview with Mauldin Economics, Jared Dillian notes that Trump’s new “America First” trade policy is anti-free trade. Plus, given the Republican Party has been the champion of free trade for decades, Trump’s new trade policy does not sit well with many in the party.

Tuesday, February 14, 2017

Stock Market is Playing Pied Piper / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2017

By: Anthony_Cherniawski

SPX is approaching its next Cyclical hourly interval at 64.5 hours. I went back to see what I may have missed and the obvious item is the Wave relationship where Wave 5 seeks equality with the length of Wave 1. That occurs at 2332.13. The match does not have to be exact. A near miss or a slight overshoot can happen.

The Cycle Top support is now at 2313.50. That may be used as an advance warning of a probable trend change.

Monday, February 13, 2017

BBC Inside Out Tesco Rip off Offers - Determined to Lose Big Spend Customers! / ConsumerWatch / Tesco

By: Nadeem_Walayat

At 7.30pm tonight the BBC's Inside Out programme will be broadcasting (also available on iplayer) of how Tesco customers are being ripped off as shelf advertised offers fail to convert at the checkouts due to the promotions having ended days, weeks or even months earlier! For instance 'buy 1 get 1 free', at the checkout can result in customers paying double the expected price in most of Tesco stores, as the BBC investigation showed 30 out of 50 stores tested demonstrating the issue of advertising promotions that do not convert at the checkout tills!