Wednesday, November 22, 2017

India's Brewing Nationalist Movement / Politics / India

By: John_Mauldin

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s revolutionary vision for his country’s future bears little resemblance to its present. Yet polls suggest that a strong majority of Indian society may have bought into that vision.

According to a Pew survey released this week, 88 percent of Indians hold a favorable view of Modi, and 83 percent are satisfied with the state of the economy. Most notably, 70 percent said they were satisfied with the direction their country is moving in.

Wednesday, November 22, 2017

Apple, Microsoft, Facebook, Switzerland Is the World’s Largest Hedge Fund / Companies / Hedge Funds

By: John_Mauldin

The BOJ, the ECB, and the Fed have gone on an asset buying spree since 2008.

Meanwhile, the more sober-minded gnomes of the Swiss National Bank expanded their own balance sheet at a much steadier pace.

Though in percentage terms, it blew it up far more than the Fed or the BOJ did theirs. And now the Swiss National Bank is the world's largest hedge fund.

Wednesday, November 22, 2017

Financial Markets Appear Calm, But Liquidity May Be Drying Up / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2017

By: Anthony_Cherniawski

SPX futures are marginally higher, having made a premarket high of 2600.00 in futures which translates roughly to 2602.00 in the cash market.

Today’s market may trade in a narrow range on extremely low volume as most traders have left for the holiday.

Wednesday, November 22, 2017

Geopolitical Risk Highest “In Four Decades” – Global Gold Demand to Remain Robust / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017

By: GoldCore

– Geopolitical risk highest “in four decades” should push gold higher – Citi
– Elections, political and macroeconomic crises and war lead to gold investment
– Political uncertainty in Germany means “gold likely to remain in good demand as a safe haven” say Commerzbank
–  “There has rarely been such political uncertainty in Germany at any time in the country’s post-war history” – Commerzbank
– Reduce counter party risk: own safe haven allocated and segregated gold

Wednesday, November 22, 2017

Relationship between Crude Oil Price and Oil Stocks / Commodities / Oil Companies

By: Nadia_Simmons

Although verification of the last week breakdown under important resistance line pushed black gold under $56, oil bulls didn’t give up and triggered a pullback. What does it mean for light crude? Will the relationship between crude oil and oil stocks give us more clues about future moves?

Wednesday, November 22, 2017

Harry Dent’s Gold Prediction Invalidated / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017

By: P_Radomski_CFA

We were recently asked to comment on Harry Dent’s predictions for the gold market and we thought that our reply might benefit other gold investors as well. To be precise, we were asked about Harry Dent’s 30-year cycle that supposedly peaked in 2011, and we supposedly could expect gold to peak again somewhere between 2038 and 2040 (you can watch the interview here). The indirect implication is that gold is not likely to soar sooner and that it’s likely to decline for a relatively long time.

Mr. Dent is referring to gold as a premier commodity and he claims that it moves up and down with the commodity cycle, which, in his opinion, is 30 years.

Wednesday, November 22, 2017

New Fed Chairman, Same Old Story / Interest-Rates / US Federal Reserve Bank

By: Kelsey_Williams

President Trump nominated Jerome H. Powell as the new Chairman of the Federal Reserve Bank. Don’t look for much to change. And Janet Yellen’s announcement that she will resign from the board upon Mr. Powell’s induction as board chair is pretty much a non-event.

Where we are today is the culmination of decades of irresponsible financial/fiscal policies and a complete abdication of fundamental economics. But that should not be a surprise. The self-proclaimed purpose of the Federal Reserve Bank is to manage the economic cycles. This is an impossibly presumptive task and a violation of fundamental economic theory.

Tuesday, November 21, 2017

Stock Market High May be Nearby... / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2017

By: Anthony_Cherniawski

SPX has hit the first of its targets. While it may go higher, this may warn that there may not be much left in this rally. The European markets close at 11:30 and this fits well with the chance of a reversal within this time frame.

Tuesday, November 21, 2017

A Wall Street Veteran: Paying Off Your Debt Is the Best Investment Today / Personal_Finance / Debt & Loans

By: John_Mauldin

BY JARED DILLIAN : I try to keep my investment ideas a secret—if you want them, you have to subscribe! But I’m going to give away this month’s idea. Are you ready? Here it is:

Pay down your mortgage.

Yes, that’s a bit unorthodox to hear from a person writing financial newsletters. But people think too much about the next get-rich-quick idea and not enough about their overall financial well-being.

Tuesday, November 21, 2017

Christmas Cashback Credit Cards Analysis / Personal_Finance / Credit Cards & Scoring

By: MoneyFacts

The cost of Christmas is officially on the rise, as inflation sits at a five-year high of 3%, and food and energy prices are rising, which means running the boiler and buying those all-important Christmas groceries will cost more. With around five weeks left to go until the big day, consumers are likely to be concerned about how much the festive season will dent their bank balance.

Unfortunately, shoppers will find that interest-free deals on credit cards have been shrinking over the past six months, giving consumers fewer months to spread the cost of Christmas. At the same time, the cost of withdrawing cash using a credit card is on the rise and cashback cards are becoming far less rewarding. The latest research from moneyfacts.co.uk compares some of the best deals around, which could help shoppers make the most of rewarding credit cards and current accounts throughout the festive season.

Tuesday, November 21, 2017

GBPJPY Moved Sideways Between 146.93 and 152.85 / Currencies / British Pound

By: Franco_Shao

GBPJPY moved sideways in a trading range between 146.93 and 152.85 for several weeks. Support is at 146.93, as long as this level holds, the sideways movement in the range could be treated as consolidation of the uptrend from 139.30 and another rise towards 164.00 is possible after the consolidation.

Tuesday, November 21, 2017

Gold Sector is On a Long-term Buy Signal / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017

By: The_Gold_Report

Technical analyst Jack Chan charts the latest movements in the gold and silver markets.

Our proprietary cycle indicator is down.

Tuesday, November 21, 2017

Saudi Arabia and Israeli Alliance Targets Iran / Politics / Middle East

By: BATR

The consequences of the failed American foreign policy in the Middle East has seldom been more vivid with the defeat of ISIS; the U.S. surrogate in the Syrian conflict. ISIS, a blended creation of the CIA and the Mossad was the inevitable result of sanctioning the murder of Libya's Muammar Gaddafi. With the support of Russian involvement, Syria's President Bashar Hafez al-Assad was able to fend off the imperialist efforts of Israel to remove him from office and destroy his country. Defeating ISIS on the battlefield has never been the intention of the DC shadow government. The consistent policy under every US administration has been to protect the Zionist state above all else. Unfortunately, the Trump regime is no different and certainly does not follow a genuine America First foreign policy.

Tuesday, November 21, 2017

What History Says for Gold Stocks in 2018-2019 / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2018

By: Jordan_Roy_Byrne

It has been a while since we’ve applied historical analysis to the precious metals sector. It is something we really enjoy as history can help define and contextualize current trends and help us spot opportunities. Back in March of this year we noted that the gold stocks could be following the path of recovery of housing stocks since their 2009 bottom. Recently, James Flanagan of Gann Global Financial has produced some excellent videos discussing some historical comparisons that are quite relevant to the gold stocks at present. We saw his videos, remembered our housing analog and wanted to take it a step further. What was the path of recovery of markets following mega bear markets?

We define a mega bear market as at least an 80% decline that lasted roughly three to four years. The image below highlights the data we’ve compiled. Some of the bears are only two years long but they follow the general recovery path. That consists of a very strong initial rebound that lasts six to twelve months which is followed by a correction and consolidation which usually lasts 18 months to two years. Then, the market begins its next impulsive advance.

Tuesday, November 21, 2017

US Bond Market Operation Twist by Another Name and Method? / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Gary_Tanashian

The TIP/IEF ‘inflation gauge’ is still motoring upward after breaking above the SMA 200. If this turns the 200 up along with the MA 50 it could indicate a mini hysteria about inflation.

Tuesday, November 21, 2017

Morrisons Cheap £5 Christmas 100 LED Fairy Lights Review / Personal_Finance / Money Saving

By: Anika_Walayat

I doubt anyone is going to find 100 LED Christmas fairy lights any cheaper than £5, as which are being sold by Morrisons. These are battery operated so can be put up anywhere without regard to a power source. But before you buy on your next shopping trip watch our video review to see if they are a great set of cheap lights or just unfit for purpose junk.

Monday, November 20, 2017

Soaring Deficits Force US Treasury into Foolish Debt Gamble / Interest-Rates / US Debt

By: Michael_Pento

The Treasury opened the fiscal year 2018 with an October budget deficit of $63.2 billion. That is 37.9% larger than the $45.8 billion deficit in October of last year. The primary reason behind this surge in year-over-year deficits was a 21.6% increase in net interest expenses. The annual red-ink problem looks even greater when recognizing that the national debt is already over 105% of Gross Domestic Product (GDP), at nearly $21 trillion, and with an additional $10 trillion projected to be added in the next ten years.

Monday, November 20, 2017

Forex Markets: British Pound Faces Strong Resistance Ahead / Currencies / British Pound

By: Richard_Cox

Currency markets have emerged from the summer period and we are now looking at the development of several new trends in many of the majors.  Judging the likely expectations in the British Pound is an action that will continue to remain important, given the effect it should have on broad asset benchmarks like the FTSE 100. 

Monday, November 20, 2017

Many Stock Market Investors Are Waiting for the New Tax Plan to Hit the Sell Button / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2017

By: John_Mauldin

BY PATRICK WATSON : Congress is deciding your portfolio’s future right now—so you might want to pay attention.

In Connecting the Dots six months ago, I said, “There will be no tax cut this year, and likely not in 2018, either.” I still see almost no chance that anything will pass.

Saying the parties are divided would be an understatement. It’s a chasm that separates not just Democrats and Republicans, but Republicans internally as well.

Add the lobbying firepower brought in by those who stand to lose and any significant changes are almost impossible. So we’re probably stuck with the present system.

Monday, November 20, 2017

Learning from Money Supply of the 1980s: The Power and Irony of “MDuh” / Economics / Money Supply

By: F_F_Wiley

Forget about big hair, Ray-Bans, and Donkey Kong. Don’t even think about Live-Aid, Thriller, and E.T. Above all else, the 1980s were the gravy days of the money supply aggregates.

Beginning in late 1979, the Fed built its policy approach around the aggregates—primarily M1 but occasionally M2, and policy makers also monitored M3 while experimenting with M1B and, later, MZM. But those were just the “official” figures. Economists and pundits debated the Fed’s preferred measures while concocting their own home-brewed variations.