Analysis Topic: Stock & Financial Markets
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Tuesday, March 17, 2015
Stock Market Three Peaks/Domed House Part II / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015
By: Ed_Carlson
In his 1969 brochure One Year Later: A follow-up of the Three Peaks and Domed House George Lindsay wrote that the pattern lasts roughly 2 years and 2 months from the beginning to the end of a bull market. Looking back over the 29 occurrences of the pattern in the Dow (since 1901) it can be seen that the pattern lasted significantly longer than that on just five occasions. Those bull markets that ended in 1961, 1966, 1981, 1987, and the current bull market, all endured for more than three years and concluded a Three Peaks/Domed House pattern.
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Tuesday, March 17, 2015
Stock Market Keeps Them Guessing..... / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015
By: Jack_Steiman
Just when it seemed the market would finally get a strong pullback to get rid of all this froth, it did an about face and rallies hard. Four nice gap downs to make the environment unhealthy, only to see two strong gap ups. Leaves them all guessing, and, of course, that is the intention of the big money. To always leave them guessing and getting emotional. The odds of this move would have seemed almost impossible considering the look of the monthly-index charts, which are basically deathly looking if you're bullish. That said, nothing comes easily for the bears in a bull market. We've discussed this quite frequently. Even if we're topping, the process is very slow, and can take many months.
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Tuesday, March 17, 2015
SPX Hits Triple Resistance / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015
By: Anthony_Cherniawski
Instead of 5 waves, SPX is finishing off Wave [c] as an Ending Diagonal, which is a bit more complex. However, as of 3:00 it has encountered a trifecta of probable resistances. The first is Wave (v) of [c] equals Wave (i) of [c] at 2079.60. The second is the 50% Fib retracement level at 2079.30. The third is Short-term resistance at 2081.06, just 8 ticks above the high made at 3:03 pm at 2080.99.
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Monday, March 16, 2015
Conflicts Of Interest Between Governments & Retirement Investors / Stock-Markets / Investing 2015
By: Dan_Amerman
Most retirement account and other long term investors continue to follow the same financial strategies they've been following for decades, believing that the "science" of modern finance will reliably build wealth and security for them.
Meanwhile, for some years now and as a matter of openly stated policy, the Federal Reserve, European Central Bank and Bank of Japan, as well as the central banks of other nations have sought to create what are known as "negative real rates of return".
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Monday, March 16, 2015
Stock Market Positive Expectations Following Last Week's Move Down - Will Downtrend Reverse? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015
By: Paul_Rejczak
Briefly: In our opinion, speculative short positions are favored (with stop-loss at 2,090 and profit target at 1,980, S&P 500 index)
Our intraday outlook is bearish, and our short-term outlook is bearish:
Intraday outlook (next 24 hours): bearish
Short-term outlook (next 1-2 weeks): bearish
Medium-term outlook (next 1-3 months): neutral
Long-term outlook (next year): bullish
Monday, March 16, 2015
Preparing for the Next Stocks Bear Market - Forecast 2015-2016 / Stock-Markets / Stocks Bear Market
By: Gary_Savage
So with the advent of global QE, and zero interest rates, have central banks unlocked the key to perpetual bull markets? Let’s just say, I doubt it.
They have managed to stretch some of the multi-year cycles, and hold off the bear much longer than most have anticipated, but I don’t think they have discovered the secret to infinite prosperity.
As I said, the implementation of global QE has stretched some of the longer term cycles, and that is the first thing I’m going to explore in this article. Prior to 2000 there was a very clear four year cycle in the stock market. Roughly every four years stocks would move down into an exceptionally vicious decline, usually associated with either a recession, or some kind of financial debacle.
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Monday, March 16, 2015
Stock Market Pause or Short-term Low? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015
By: Andre_Gratian
Current Position of the Market
SPX: Long-term trend - Bull Market
Intermediate trend - Is the 7-yr cycle sketching an intermediate top?
Analysis of the short-term trend is done on a daily basis with the help of hourly charts. They are important adjuncts to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which ultimately indicate the course of longer market trends.
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Sunday, March 15, 2015
Stock Market Still Not Happy...Monthly Charts Troubling..... / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015
By: Jack_Steiman
Overheard in Jack's Trading Room: "I have only been a member for a few months, but have learned so much from you and all the other quality members on this site. The honesty, integrity and leadership you bring to this service is hard to find these days." -- "Cowgirl" - 3/13/15
And that doesn't mean we won't try much higher again. If a market is topping it is EXTREMELY unusual to not test the old highs, not only once, but potentially three or four times before trying to sell without coming back up. Like gold years ago, it took four or five attempts for the bubble to pop. The bulls would not give up the ship easily. They were trained to see higher prices. They were trained to buy pullbacks. It took many, many months for the market to top. Now it is true that we are dealing with unprecedented levels of froth, and it is true that the monthly charts are deathly, so it doesn't have to keep trying back up. But that is normal protocol, so we have to give the bulls the benefit of the doubt that it won't be any different this time around.
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Sunday, March 15, 2015
Why The Stock Market Must Drop Next Week! / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015
By: Brad_Gudgeon
In the previous two articles, I explained that I have been looking for a pull back in the markets. Now with new data, I can boldly say when I believe the bottom will occur and the best odds of a price target on the S&P 500. The answers lie in the chart below. Using Elliott Wave and Fibonacci, I have determined a price of S&P 500 1957/58 and a date of March 20-23. I can also say with near exactness that we should fall nearly 4.3% on the week.Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, March 15, 2015
US Stock Market Waiting on the USD / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015
By: Tony_Caldaro
The week started off at SPX 2071 and rallied to 2083 on Monday. Then a Tuesday gap down opening carried the SPX to 2040 by Wednesday. Thursday’s gap up opening and rally to SPX 2066, was nearly completely reversed on Friday’s gap down opening. A choppy week. For the week the SPX/DOW lost 0.75%, the NDX/NAZ lost 1.40%, and the DJ World index lost 1.40%. On the economic front reports came in mixed. On the uptick: wholesale inventories, export prices, the WLEI, plus weekly jobless claims and the treasury deficit improved. On the downtick: retail sales, the PPI, import prices, consumer sentiment, and the MMIS. Next week is the FOMC meeting, plus Industrial production, reports on Housing, and Options expiration.
Sunday, March 15, 2015
Michael Lewis is Right “Spoofing” Proves Market Rigged on Daily Basis / Stock-Markets / Market Manipulation
By: EconMatters
Brent Spoofing & HFT
As the European Market closes today and oil has some bearish sentiment to the trading day, one of the common techniques is to bang the European close in the Brent contract which being a much less liquid contract than WTI can be quite profitable. Usually this takes place around 10:00 to 10:30 am CST but with the time changes this week everything is pushed back an hour here in the US with the European close now being 11:00 to 11:30 am CST.
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Saturday, March 14, 2015
Sorry But This Is Not 1997 for the Stock Market / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015
By: Sy_Harding
Several months ago I wrote of how super bull markets that last nine or ten years have been once in a generation situations, the last ones being those of the 1920’s and the 1990’s, but that there were enough similarities to 1997 in the current bull market that it could possibly make it into that category.
In 1997, the 1990’s bull market had also been underway for six years, which had the market already overvalued by traditional measurements. However, investors were convinced it was under the protection of the Fed and the ‘Greenspan Put’, and the bull market accelerated further to the upside (into what became the infamous 2000 bubble).
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Saturday, March 14, 2015
Free Money; What Could Go Wrong? / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2015
By: Doug_Wakefield
Isn’t all of this QE (quick and easy) money great? When the Federal Reserve shut down their latest Quantitative Easing program last October (the largest “free money” scheme in American history), the Bank of Japan was ready to expand their largest “free money” scheme, and starting on March 9th this week, after many attempts to kick start its own “free money” scheme in Europe, the European Central Bank kicked off its own Quantitative Easing program.
Friday, March 13, 2015
Pi Day - Largest Reversal in Stock Market History / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015
By: Anthony_Cherniawski
Good Morning!
Welcome to Pi day, the unluckiest day in the stock market. This is the date of largest reversal in stock market history. This separates the market from a regular “buy the dip” opportunity to “sell the rally,” or better yet, “Get out of Dodge.”
Actually, Pi day is Sunday, so I am taking some liberty here, since the markets aren’t open over the weekend. Notice the symmetry here in the monthly chart. Super Cycle Wave V took exactly 6.02 years, which is 314.16 weeks. That same with Super Cycle Wave b.
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Friday, March 13, 2015
The Stock Market Bull is Charging Ahead! / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015
By: Puru_Saxena
BIG PICTURE - After several years, the Federal Reserve has passed the QE baton to the European Central Bank (ECB) and this should extend the ongoing bull-market in common stocks. You will recall that throughout last year, we were expecting the ECB to unleash a full-scale bond buying program and Mr. Draghi's recent decision has validated our view.
If our assessment is correct, the ongoing QE initiative will assist common stocks and probably ensure the continuation of the primary uptrend until at least September 2016. At that point, if the ECB decides to extend its bond buying program, the bull-market may get another lease of life!
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Thursday, March 12, 2015
Santander and Deutsche Fail Bank ‘Stress Tests’ – Risk of Bail-Ins / Stock-Markets / Credit Crisis 2015
By: GoldCore
- Largest banks in Germany and Spain fail Federal Reserve’s ‘stress tests’
- Stress tests designed to assess whether lenders can withstand another financial crisis
- U.S. subsidiaries fail Fed stress tests on ‘‘widespread and critical deficiencies’’ in identifying risks
- Deutsche and Santander bank fail on “qualitative” grounds
- 28 out of 31 banks passed the stress test, with Bank of America required to resubmit plans
- Both Deutsche and Santander passed questionable ECB stress tests in October
- Developing bail-in regime poses risks to depositors
Thursday, March 12, 2015
Dow Stock Index Embrace of Apple Reveals New Paths to Profits / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Money_Morning
Michael E. Lewitt writes: The announcement last week that Apple Inc. (Nasdaq: AAPL) would replace AT&T Inc. (NYSE: T) in the venerable Dow Jones Industrial Average's 30 top companies reflects an important trend that investors can play to their advantage. Today, I'll tell you how.
Previously, the biggest shake-up of the Dow came in September 2013 when Goldman Sachs, Nike, and Visa knocked out Alcoa, Bank of America, and Hewlett-Packard.
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Thursday, March 12, 2015
Stock Market Staying Mostly Oversold.... / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015
By: Jack_Steiman
When playing this very silly game you look for changes from the trend that was in place. We have spent a long time watching just about every attempt at selling being bought up quite rapidly. The bears banging their heads in frustration as the market refused to sell. It spent a long time basing but then made a final leg higher that has now seemingly come to an end. Four gap downs still open and counting. No gap ups to counter. The technical damage quite serious for the bulls to have to overcome.
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Wednesday, March 11, 2015
What Stocks Bubble? Here’s How We’ll Keep Riding the Nasdaq Rally / Stock-Markets / Tech Stocks
By: Money_Morning
Michael A. Robinson writes: Early last week, the Nasdaq Composite Index – the bellwether for U.S. tech sector – eclipsed the 5,000 level for the first time in 15 years.
The bears would have you believe this is proof that we’re living through another tech-stock “bubble” – and that a collapse like the dot-com debacle of 2000 is close at hand.
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Tuesday, March 10, 2015
Britain EU Exit ‘BREXIT’ Poses Risks To London Property, FTSE and Sterling Asset / Stock-Markets / UK Stock Market
By: GoldCore
- Political uncertainty beginning to impact bond and property markets
- UK bonds and stocks at all time record highs and ‘bubbly’
- FTSE looks overvalued and ripe for sharp correction
- “Air of caution in the run-up to the general election” hits London property
- City of London has most to lose from Brexit
- Brexit may isolate UK – “North Korea option” – or lead to strong, independent UK, like Hong Kong
- Real diversification remains only “free lunch”