AI Predicts Risks of Stock Market CRASH, Last Signal Was in Late Feb 2020.

Stock-Markets / Stock Market Crash Dec 15, 2021 - 01:36 PM GMT

Dear Reader

My Stocks Bear Market / Crash Indicator (CI18) has been triggered as of Fridays close with a reading of 103.4% where a reading of at least 100% equals SWITCHED ON for the first time since late Feb 2020 when it was triggered with a reading of 112%.

Contents:
What is the CI18?
CI18 Trigger Feb 2020
Existing Stock Market Trend Forecast
Stock Market VIX
Stock Market December Trend
OMICRON THE STRAW THAT BROKE THE CAMELS BACK!
MUTED SANTA RALLY
The Alibaba Stock Market
ARKK Garbage
Stocks Bear Market of 2022 May Have Started EARLY!
Facebook $301 Buying level achieved.
Recession 2022
Quantum AI Tech Stocks Portfolio
Crypto FLASH CRASH Early Christmas Present

What is the CI18?

CI18 (Crash Indicator Version 18) is one of the neural nets that I am working on as my AI takes baby steps into understanding how to interpret the stock market. It's task is to state what is the current risk of significantly lower stock prices (Dow) ahead i.e. that could either mark the start of a bear market or a market crash within the next few weeks .However it is NOT a trading signal as the market will already have fallen somewhat by the time it is triggered as was the case in late Feb 2020 when I had already become increasingly bearish on the prospects for the stock Market during the preceding month before the CI18 signal was triggered.

The CI18 is an independant indicator that acts as a warning to take a more detailed look at the downside prospects for the stock market, to skew ones analysis in that direction, to increase the probability for greater downside price action i.e. chart supports that I may previously have thought should hold any decline will now likely break and thus target even lower prices, how low that needs to be determined through in-depth analysis. In terms of investing and trading for me it means to seek to SELL (if I have not already sold), HEDGE and SHORT stocks and indices. Where my preferred hedging tool tends to be to short stock index futures so as to capitalise on any drop delivering fresh funds to buy more AI stocks at deep discounts just as I did during March 2020.

So CI18 it is not a SELL signal rather acts as weighting tool that tips the scales further towards a more bearish slant.

CI18 Trigger Feb 2020

As a reminder of the last time the trigger occurred in late February 2020 I had already been bearish on the prospects for stocks since early February in large part due to my interpretation of the risks that the virus posed that most in West largely remained blind to given that there were no cases and China was suppressing information on the virus. Even the criminals at the WHO painted a benign picture by repeatedly requesting that flights out of China continue so that travelers can continue to spew viral particles across the world which means the WHO get to have their moment in the sun, and which the mainstream media wholeheartedly regurgitated because it was CONTRARY to President Trump's halt on all flights form China stance, this despite China halting all internal flights to try and prevent spread of the Wuhan bio lab leak virus.

Still I was already bearish whilst the Dow was making new all time highs in early February with my expectations then for a 10% drop in the Dow into early to Mid March 2020.

Where once the CI18 was triggered late February further contributed towards skewing my bearish expectations lower still (27th Feb 2020 The Coronavirus Stocks Bear Market Begins, When Will it End?)

Which set us up for the mother of all buying opportunities reaching it's apex in Mid March as my analysis at the time illustrated, where nearly every AI tech stock had breached it's buying levels by some degree. Looking back today one can only fantasise of once more having such an opportunity to buy the likes of Google at $1073, and Microsoft $135, AMD at $38, Facebook $146 and Amazon at $1689 where at the time I and many Patrons dived into a stocks feeding frenzy, like Piranhas devouring cheap AI tech stocks, expending all available cash on stocks trading at levels well below what I considered as being cheap. Though it was only a few weeks later when many Patrons started asking me if they should SELL to cash in their profits following gains of 30% to 40% which at the time I warned would be a BIG MISTAKE. Instead it would be well over a year later when I would personally cash in most of my gains, though with the benefit of hindsight a few Patrons have since complained that they followed my lead and sold out so missed the likes of Nvidia's moon shot and Apple and Microsoft's continuing trends higher, that is the way of life and the markets where hindsight is always wonderful, though for some strange reason the brokers never let one buy and sell stocks with the benefit of hindsight.

And this is why I tend to hold a large amount of cash on my investing accounts so that I already have the limit orders in place to catch the falling knives rather than trying to juggle lots of plates at the same time during fast moving market panic events.

So could we be in for a similar fire sale where once more most of the buying levels are breached by a significant margin? Say Google falling all the way down to $2400, Apple to $120,Amazon $2600, Facebook at $262, and Microsoft similarly down to $262?

This article is an excerpt from my latest in-depth analysis that acts as an early warning of the increasing risks of market panic event!

STOCK MARKET CRASH / BEAR INDICATOR TRIGGERED - 103.4% vs 100% = Switched ON!

What is the CI18?
CI18 Trigger Feb 2020
Existing Stock Market Trend Forecast
Stock Market VIX
Stock Market December Trend
OMICRON THE STRAW THAT BROKE THE CAMELS BACK!
MUTED SANTA RALLY
The Alibaba Stock Market
ARKK Garbage
Stocks Bear Market of 2022 May Have Started EARLY!
Facebook $301 Buying level achieved.
Recession 2022
Quantum AI Tech Stocks Portfolio
Crypto FLASH CRASH Early Christmas Present

The whole of which was first been made available to Patrons who support my work. So for immediate first access to ALL of my analysis and trend forecasts then do consider becoming a Patron by supporting my work for just $4 per month. https://www.patreon.com/Nadeem_Walayat.

Also access to my extensive analysis on how to capitalise on the metaverse. Best Stocks To Profit From the $1+ Trillion Emerging Metaverse Mega-trend

Contents:
VR and Gaming Becomes the Metaverse
A Video Message from Your Metaverse Analyst
PRIMARY META-VERSE STOCKS
QUANTUM AI METAVERSE STOCKS
METAVERSE STOCKS UNIVERSE
Google Glass a Big Fat FAIL
META (Facebook) Dominating VR
APPLE AR Headset Coming 2022
ROBLOX - High Risk
TENCENT- Chinese High Risk GAMING
XXXXXX - CAD - $254 RISK - 3 OUT OF 10
XXXXXX - RISK 3 OUT OF 10.
XXXXXX NEW LIFE FOR AGEING GAMING GIANT? RISK 2 OUT OF 10
XXXXXX - DIGITIZING THE REAL WORLD - RISK 8 OUT OF 10
INTEL Black Friday Sale!
IBM The REAL Quantum Metaverse STOCK!
NVIDIA THE KING OF THE METAVERSE!
XXXXX
AI Stocks Portfolio Current State
AI Stocks - What's Cheap
AI Stocks - What's far value
AI Stocks - What's expensive?
Stock Market Trend Forecast Current State
Current State of Cathy Wood ARKK Garbage
RIVIAN IPO Illustrates We are in the Mother of all Stock Bubbles
DECENTRALAND
SANDBOX
How to Get Rich in the MetaVerse
Bitcoin Trend Analysis
Crypto Current Portfolio
Covid19 Winter Storm Fuel for Financial Crisis 2.0
OMICRON - The 'Oh Dear' Worst Ever Covid Strain?
Consequences for the Stock Markets?
Financial Crisis 2.0 Current State - TAPERING
Financial Crisis 2.0 Stock Market Bubble Investing Strategy
Why You Should Not Fear a 50% Draw down in Your Stocks Portfolio
What's driving asset price inflation?
Inflation Forecasting a Recession In 2022
UK Inflation Hits 30 year High of 6%
UK Energy Customers Falling into Energy Firms Fixed Rate Tariffs Trap
Fin tech Stock - NEW STOCK

Also access to my extensive analysis on the state of the AI tech stocks that highlighted several stocks trading at bargain basement levels - AI Tech Stocks Portfolio Updated Buying Levels and Zones as Financial Crisis 2.0 Continues Brewing

Contents:
Financial Crisis 2.0 Checklist
The China Syndrome
Stock Market Begins it's Year End Seasonal Santa Rally
Stock Market Trend Forecast Current State
INVESTING LESSON - BUYING VALUE
Peloton 35% CRASH a Lesson of What Happens When One Over Pays for a Loss Making Growth Stock
INVESTING LESSON - Give your Portfolio Some Breathing Space
INVESTING LESSON - Give your Portfolio Some Breathing Space
How Stagflation Effects Stocks
INTEL Bargain - 15.5% Discount Sale
Why Intel stock price dropped 15%?
FACEBOOK - 10% DIscount
IBM - 20% Discount
Amazon - 5% Discount
APPLE 4% Discount
AMD $136 on Route to $200
TSMC - $117
Microsoft $336
Google $2980, PE 28.7, EC 30.
Nvidia Leaves planet Earth - $299, PE of 106
Heads Up on NEW Potential Tech Stocks
AI Stocks Portfolio Updated Buying Levels
AI Stocks Buying Plan B
FREE TRADE the Perfect Stocks and Shares ISA?
FREE SHARE FROM FREETRADE
High Risk Stocks Brief
Crypto's 20% Discount Event
Bitcoin Trend
Palladium Brief

Also access to my recent analysis that maps out what I expect to happen during the next big crypto bull market is only just beginning for most crypto's

Bitcoin NEW All time High is TRIGGER for Future Alt Coins Price Explosion

Contents:

Bitcoin & Ethereum 2021 Trend
Crypto Portfolio Current State
The BITCOIN NEW ALL TIME HIGH Changes EVERYTHING!
Ravencoin to the MOON!
What am I doing?
How to Invest in Crypto's
Bitcoin 2022 Price Target
Ethereum 2022 Price Target
Ravencoin 2022 Price Target
Cardano (ADA) 2022 Price Target
Chainlink 2022 Price Target
Pokadot 2022 Price Target
Solano 2022 Price Target
Litecoin 2022 Price Target
Arweave 2022 Price Target
Stellar Lumens - XLM 2022 Price Target
Eth Classic 2022 Price Target
Vechain 2022 Price Target
EOS 2022 Price Target
Earnings Noise Delivers INTEL And IBM Buy Opps
Facebook and Google Could CRASH 10% Post Earnings Day
High Risk Stocks Swings and Roundabouts

For crypto trading and investing see Binance for 10% discount on trading fees - Discount Code LZ728VLZ

For managing your crypto's see Coinbase

For GPU mining check out Nicehash (affiliate links).

So for immediate first access to ALL of my analysis and trend forecasts then do consider becoming a Patron by supporting my work for just $4 per. https://www.patreon.com/Nadeem_Walayat.

My analysis schedule includes:

UK House Prices Trend Analysis, including an update for the US and a quick look at Canada and China - 65% done
How to Get Rich! - 90% done - This is a good 6 month work in progress nearing completion.

High RIsks Stocks Portfolio Quarterly Review
US Dollar and British Pound analysis
Gold Price Trend Analysis - 10%

Again for immediate access to all my work do consider becoming a Patron by supporting my work for just $4 per month. https://www.patreon.com/Nadeem_Walayat.

And ensure you are subscribed to my ALWAYS FREE newsletter for my next in-depth analysis.

Your metaverse invested analyst.

Nadeem Walayat

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Nadeem Walayat has over 35 years experience of trading derivatives, portfolio management and analysing the financial markets, including one of few who both anticipated and Beat the 1987 Crash. Nadeem's forward looking analysis focuses on UK inflation, economy, interest rates and housing market. He is the author of five ebook's in the The Inflation Mega-Trend and Stocks Stealth Bull Market series that can be downloaded for Free.

Nadeem is the Editor of The Market Oracle, a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication that presents in-depth analysis from over 1000 experienced analysts on a range of views of the probable direction of the financial markets, thus enabling our readers to arrive at an informed opinion on future market direction. http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any trading losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors before engaging in any trading activities.

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