Analysis Topic: Stock & Financial Markets

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Thursday, March 31, 2016

Stock Market More Upside Following Tuesday's Fed Talk - Will It Continue Higher? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016

By: Paul_Rejczak

Briefly: In our opinion, no speculative positions are justified.

Our intraday outlook is neutral, and our short-term outlook is neutral. Our medium-term outlook remains bearish, as the S&P 500 index extends its lower highs, lower lows sequence:

Intraday outlook (next 24 hours): neutral
Short-term outlook (next 1-2 weeks): neutral
Medium-term outlook (next 1-3 months): bearish
Long-term outlook (next year): neutral

Thursday, March 31, 2016

Stock Market Good Follow-Through Day / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016

By: Harry_Boxer

The stock market indices had a nice follow-through to yesterday’s rally in the morning as they gapped up, ran hard in the first thirty-forty minutes and reached their session highs. By midday they pulled back in falling wedges, resulting in an afternoon rally back. The resistance was too much for the markets, and they pulled back in the last hour, but still closed positive on the day.

Net on the day, the Dow was up 83.55 at 17,716.66. The S&P 500 was up 8.94 to 2063.95, 9 points off the high, so it gave back about half the gains. The Nasdaq 100 was up 23.16 to 4490.88, 23 points off the high, also giving back about half.

Thursday, March 31, 2016

Stock Market Worst Case Scenario = 73% Down From Here / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016

By: James_Quinn

As the stock market gyrates higher and lower in a fairly narrow range, the spokesmodels and talking heads on CNBC breathlessly regurgitate the standard bullish mantra designed to keep the muppets in the market. They are employees of a massive corporation whose bottom line and stock price depend upon advertising revenues reaped from Wall Street and K Street. They aren't journalists. They are propagandists disguised as journalists. Their job is to keep you confused, misinformed, and ignorant of the true facts.

Thursday, March 31, 2016

Friday The Day...Any Day The Day?...... Stock Market At Trend Line Resistance..... / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016

By: Jack_Steiman

The fed market is on a mission. It wants to change the way we look at technical analysis for good. Or at least for a long time to come when the next bear market kicks in. That's likely a long way off since the fed will serve and protect for a long time to come as she is basically promising low rates for years to come as mentioned in her speech yesterday. She wants to create inflation. She doesn't want to do it through the market, but since the global economy stinks there basically is no other way to do it. She uses words that she knows will excite the market masses. Every word carefully planned. Every word with a meaning behind it. While she's not a very good talker, she is a very convincing. It doesn't matter how she says it that matters. It's what she says. So with the promise of low rates and more stimulus if need be, we can't seem to find a top in the market, even though it's grossly overbought and flashing some negative divergences now on the daily chart.

Wednesday, March 30, 2016

Stock Market Window Dressing May be Over / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016

By: Anthony_Cherniawski

SPX made its high a few minutes after 11:00 am. I don’t expect to see a lot of movement today, but the quarterly window-dressing appears to be over. The critical 4.3-year support is now at 2050.00. The short-term trendline support is at 2042.00.

Today’s volume was below average and it appears that short covering may be exhausted. I had expected to see stock buybacks to end much earlier than this, but some may have decided it is better to apologize if caught. The stock buybacks facilitated a lot of insider liquidations.

Wednesday, March 30, 2016

Painting the Stock Market Tape For the End of Quarter / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016

By: Jesse

Today the US stock markets decided to celebrate the lack of a sustainable recovery and the slumping global economies of the world.

Janet Yellen sparked a brushfire rally in a dull market. Yesterday was the lowest trading day of the year in terms of volume.

Wednesday, March 30, 2016

New Legislation Permits FDIC to Seize Bank Deposits for Bail-Ins / Stock-Markets / Credit Crisis 2016

By: Graham_Summers

The world will soon be facing a tsunami of defaults on bad debts. This will include municipal or local government defaults, governments “defaulting” on promises they’ve made to the people (Social Security, Medicaid), a default on the social contract between society and politicians such as the one in Cyprus (a default on the notions of private property and Democracy), stealth defaults on debts in the form of inflation and finally, of course, outright sovereign defaults.

Wednesday, March 30, 2016

Martin Armstrong: ”Collapse In Government Is Incoming, Markets Are Going To Start Responding!” / Stock-Markets / Financial Crisis 2016

By: Gordon_T_Long

FRA Co-founder Gordon T. Long delineates political developments and their consequences on the global economy with Martin Armstrong, founder of Armstrong Economics.

Martin Armstrong began his studies into market behavior when first becoming fascinated by the events during the Crash of 1966. He pursued his studies of economics searching for answers behind the cycle of boom and busts that plagued society both in Princeton and in London. He began to do forecasting as a service to institutional cash market players in gold that included Swiss banks.Armstronghad the unusual background in computer science in hardware and software and was perhaps the first to begin to apply his diverse knowledge from two fields together. He began creating a global model in the mid-70s and was publishing the results from about 1972.

Wednesday, March 30, 2016

Stocks Bull Market About to Hand Bears Another Noose? Forecast 2016 / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016

By: Nadeem_Walayat

The supposed great bear market of 2016 has relentlessly trended in the WRONG direction as each hope that the bears clung to once more resolved in another ramping higher of stock prices. The latest best hope being the Fed meeting that was meant to deliver bear market apocalypse and most recently Yellen yelling that the Fed is in no hurry to raise US interest rates that keeps catching market participants by surprise. This despite near 2 months ago we saw the BoJ panic with negative interest rates, and then earlier this month the ECB also panic with negative interest rates!

Wednesday, March 30, 2016

Possible Truncated Stock Market High? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016

By: Anthony_Cherniawski

SPX peaked (so far) today at 15:25 hours at a high of 2055.91. Should it go no higher, it may be the orthodox high, if not the numeric high, which still stands on March 22. The March 22 SPC (futures) high was 2047.75, while today’s high was 2047.50.

I had mentioned in yesterday’s email that today is a Pi date. These dates come at important highs and lows in the Cycles. An aggressive sell signal may come at the crossing of the trendline at 2040.00 or Short-term support at 2032.17.

Tuesday, March 29, 2016

NASDAQ ETF QQQ / Stock-Markets / Stock Index Trading

By: Ed_Carlson

We have been expecting a top in equity indices for the last two weeks. We did see the market start down last week after the previous Friday's option expiration. A change of trend after option expiration is a common (but not guaranteed) occurrence. So far the pullback isn't enough to concern the bulls or get the bears excited but there are other signals warning of a pending correction in equities. One of those is volume in the NASDAQ ETF QQQ.

Tuesday, March 29, 2016

Fed Credibility Dwindles, Pension Funding Crisis Looms / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2016

By: MoneyMetals

Clint Siegner writes: Fed officials jawbone the markets and spread disinformation. They figure it’s part of their job as central planners. It’s not enough to pull the levers and twist the knobs on interest rates, the money supply, and asset prices. They also use propaganda to manage investor psychology. It’s all smoke and mirrors.

Frustrated metals investors wonder just how long officials will maintain their hold over markets when so much of what they say turns out to be garbage and so much of what they do ends in failure.

Tuesday, March 29, 2016

YAWN......VIX Lower...Beta Lower.... Stock Market To Nowhere... / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016

By: Jack_Steiman

The emotions run high as it seems something special is about to happen, only to see it disappear in a puff of sadness. It looks like the market is about to rock, but it doesn't. You say to me, but it has run up already. I say, but to where? It goes nowhere in the end. Nothing sustainable. We rise. We get overbought. We pull back. We rise, and then see negative divergences, and then fall again. It goes nowhere in the big picture. Today was incredibly boring simply because beta, volatility, if you will, is leaving the ball park. Taking a vacation as the lower VIX readings are taking over, even though the VIX was up today. Oh how many long for the days of VIX readings in the upper 20's or lower 30's. Then we'd see 100-point moves on the Nasdaq as routine.

Tuesday, March 29, 2016

Don't Get Caught Catching a Falling Financial Knife / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2016

By: EWI

Editor's note: This article was adapted from a new subscriber-level summary report, Don't Get Caught Catching a Falling Financial Knife, from Elliott Wave International, the world's largest independent financial forecasting firm. For the complete report, follow this link. It's free to read.

In November, The Elliott Wave Financial Forecast discussed the importance of a key long-term divergence between the major stock indexes and financial stocks.

Tuesday, March 29, 2016

Stock Market and Crude Oil Price Tops? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016

By: Chris_Vermeulen

Stock markets rebounded solidly from their lows of February 11th, 2016, making new multi-month highs, earlier last week. The SPX rescinded 0.7% by the end of last week. These market gains can be attributed to the very bullish decisions of the European Central Bank (ECB) and the FED Central Banks.  On March 10^th, 2016, the ECB surprised the financial world by announcing a much stronger than expected stimulus package. One week later, the FED announced that it would not raise its’ short-term interest rates. It was only three months earlier, back in December of 2015, that they suggested that they would raise rates four times in 2016. It is now my belief, that they will not raise short- term interest ‘materially’ in 2016.

Monday, March 28, 2016

Bank Deposits That Go To Zero and Capital Controls for Two Years / Stock-Markets / Credit Crisis 2016

By: Graham_Summers

Canada has joined the “bail-in” posse.

Canada will introduce legislation to implement a “bail-in” regime for systemically important banks that would shift some of the responsibility for propping up failing institutions to creditors.

The proposed plan outlined in the federal budget released on Tuesday would allow authorities to convert eligible long-term debt of a failing lender into common shares in order to recapitalize the bank, allowing it to remain operating.

Source: CNBC

Monday, March 28, 2016

Stock Market Easter Egg...The Jaws of Life / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016

By: Rambus_Chartology

Today I would like to show you some more charts on some if the different stock market indices we looked at in the last Weekend Report. Last weekend we looked at alot of the bull market uptrend channels that are still in place since the 2009 crash low. It's always important to keep an open mind no matter how strongly we believe things to be when it comes to the stock markets. Everyone can't get in at the bottom and everyone can't get out at the top and then there is the consolidation phase that trips up both the bull and the bears alike.

Monday, March 28, 2016

A Chink In The Stock Market Rally? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016

By: Andre_Gratian

Current Position of the Market

SPX: Long-term trend - Severe correction underway.

SPX Intermediate trend: Potential rally top.

Analysis of the short-term trend is done on a daily basis with the help of hourly charts. It is an important adjunct to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which discuss longer market trends.

Saturday, March 26, 2016

Stock Market Maybe This Time is Different? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016

By: Tony_Caldaro

The week started at SPX 2050. After a somewhat choppy move higher to SPX 2057 by Tuesday, the market pulled back to SPX 2022 on Thursday. Then it rose for the rest of the day to close at SPX 2036. For the week the SPX/DOW lost 0.6%, the NDX/NAZ lost 0.3%, and the DJ World lost 1.3%. On the economic front reports finally came in on the positive side. On the uptick: FHFA housing, new homes sales, Q4 GDP and the WLEI. On the downtick: existing home sales, durable goods, and Q1 GDPN. Next week, a busy one, is highlighted by Payrolls, the Chicago PMI, and the PCE.

Saturday, March 26, 2016

Macro Changes and Future Inflation Problems / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2016

By: Gary_Tanashian

Ever since beginning the ‘Macrosom‘ theme in July (and updating it here), NFTRH has been managing macro changes that would positively affect the gold sector, and quite possibly have a negative effect on broad stock markets.  Early on in the precious metals bear market we noted they were “in the mirror” and opposite the stock market, which on the post-2011 cycle has been the beneficiary of the Fed’s inflation, instilling confidence in their policies by conventional market participants (after all, the right assets were going up on this cycle).  In August, it appeared that the first real thrust in the direction of our macro theme kicked in as the stock market cracked.